On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Cascadia_Wx]

72/61 day here with .18” of rainfall this morning giving way to partly cloudy skies later. A great summer day.

[Deweydog]

Convection over Carl’s!

 

[Doinko]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's hope this winter isn't a SNOOZEFEST. Though when you look at it in the context of the cold fall and very chilly February/March, it wasn't bad. Just seemed like weaksauce compared to February 2019. 

Just let the south/west Portland metro do well next winter please...

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Convection over Carl’s!

 

I've been there! 

[Doinko]

5 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

If this winter ends up a dud, I’d be disappointed but not in the least bit surprised. IMO the two most likely outcomes are 08-09 or 16-17 tier monster, and dud.

Either way the Cascades are right nearby. Let’s hope it is not a torchfest or endlessly dry. Some winters that are pretty mediocre in the lowlands can still be pretty epic at ski resort level.

Looks like my location had 25" and 18" those winters, I also want a repeat!

[Doinko]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Didn’t 2010/11 have multiple arctic blasts in the PNW? One in November and other in February?

That was also the most heartbreaking winter I’ve ever experienced. Boxing Day rug pull hurts to this day.  

Neither gave that much snow to the Portland area sadly... like 2" total around a lot of the metro area. Much better in the Sound

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This year has reminded me a lot of 2011. 

Something that surprised me was that the 850mb temps from the Feb 2022 event were actually colder than the Feb 2011 one. -9.5 compared to -10.1. Feb 2018 was even colder at -10.5. The 2011 event definitely put up the best numbers at PDX at least though, a min high of 33 and a low of 18 compared to 37 and 24 for the 2022 one.

[Anti Marine Layer]

28 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Convection over Carl’s!

 

Where is McDonald's?

[Anti Marine Layer]

52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So green

It's not easy being green.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Third Niña, third try's the charm. +QBO, volcanic strat.

Hopefully we add in a big SSW event just for good measure! 🌨

[T-Town]

Moderate rain here now. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Moderate rain here now. 

Yup raining good here as well. 

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Third Niña, third try's the charm. +QBO, volcanic strat.

Well you guys did do good the last two years at least, I was close to getting a lot of snow in Feb 2021 had everything shifted 10 miles to the south like the models were showing, but I instead had 4.5" and a mix of sleet/ZR, which was disappointing. 

[T-Town]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yup raining good here as well. 

Nice to get one last soaking before we dry out for a while. 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nice to get one last soaking before we dry out for a while. 

It’s raining hard here wasn’t expecting that. We will see if we dry out it’ll definitely dry out for atleast a week but this seems like the kind of year where we won’t be dry for a month at a time. 

[Skagit Weather]

7 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

For whatever reason the Euro temp map seems to really overestimate the cooling effect of Puget Sound. It regularly spits out afternoon temps 5+ degrees too cool for Seattle.

I wonder if that's just because it places the location for its Seattle estimates too close to the sound. It does a remarkably good job up here, usually within a degree or two.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

I wonder if that's just because it places the location for its Seattle estimates too close to the sound. It does a remarkably good job up here, usually within a degree or two.

It does pretty well here too…but you go 5-10 miles inland and it can be 5-7 degrees too cool. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Where is McDonald's?

Gher and 500.

[Cloud]

Muggy.

And some heavy stuff inbound. 

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Well you guys did do good the last two years at least, I was close to getting a lot of snow in Feb 2021 had everything shifted 10 miles to the south like the models were showing, but I instead had 4.5" and a mix of sleet/ZR, which was disappointing. 

Definitely really lucky up here, reaping the rewards of the law of averages after the torrid 2013-2018 stretch at my place. Phebruary 2021 did kind of carry the whole 2020-21 winter though, considering there wasn't much else to note.

I will admit however this last winter 2021-22 was pretty good up here. An A-tier Arctic snap in December with the coldest weather since Dec 1990, generally pretty chilly overall, even during the ridgier periods where inversions set up shop. Still, a 2022-23 dud would shock me.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Definitely really lucky up here, reaping the rewards of the law of averages after the torrid 2013-2018 stretch at my place. Phebruary 2021 did kind of carry the whole 2020-21 winter though, considering there wasn't much else to note.

I will admit however this last winter 2021-22 was pretty good up here. An A-tier Arctic snap in December with the coldest weather since Dec 1990, generally pretty chilly overall, even during the ridgier periods where inversions set up shop. Still, a 2022-23 dud would shock me.

Surprisingly we managed a subfreezing high this winter in December (PDX got to 34 that day while we stayed below freezing). What was 2013/2014 and 2016/2017 like at your location? I did well those winters, 9" and 18", and an inch and subfreezing high in January 2016. I did okay in 2017/18 though with 5.5" of snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Well you guys did do good the last two years at least, I was close to getting a lot of snow in Feb 2021 had everything shifted 10 miles to the south like the models were showing, but I instead had 4.5" and a mix of sleet/ZR, which was disappointing. 

I had 0” of snow with that at 1600’

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let’s face it. January totally sucked in NW Oregon AGAIN.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I had 0” of snow with that at 1600’

The ice totals in that storm were crazy, some places got to 2" around Oregon City I think.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let’s face it. January totally sucked in NW Oregon AGAIN.

Let's hope January delivers next year. January 2017 was nice though, 33.5° at PDX, 8.3" of snow officially and 14" in my location, and a low temp of 11, coldest since Dec 1998. Sadly it was pretty localized around Portland though.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let’s face it. January totally sucked in NW Oregon AGAIN.

Besides a couple days with some wet snow early in the month and the 35/20 day on 1/1 it was pretty meh here too. 

[Deweydog]

Toasty Tuesday on the 00z…

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Surprisingly we managed a subfreezing high this winter in December (PDX got to 34 that day while we stayed below freezing). What was 2013/2014 and 2016/2017 like at your location? I did well those winters, 9" and 18", and an inch and subfreezing high in January 2016. I did okay in 2017/18 though with 5.5" of snow.

2013-14: Everything went south of here, into OR and SW WA. KSEA recorded upper 20s in early Feb but we warmed to like 35F in this part of the city. Did get a surprise 2" of snow the following night though... Which was of course completely gone by noon the following day with SW'lies and highs in the upper 40s. Ended up below normal on snowfall with 4" or so.

2016-17: Everything went everywhere but here. Lots of snow in OR, some events to the north. Fairly chilly overall, but hardly any snow outside of two overrunning events, one in Dec and one in Jan. Actually had a below normal snowfall season, totaling 3", below the long running average of 6".

Also included one of the most heartbreaking weather events in recent memory. Early Feb the stars were aligned to dump around 8" of wet snow in the area, but as the event unfolded the transition to snow kept delaying. Ended up that north Seattle was the epicenter where the changeover happened last, and where the accumulations were minimized. Got 1.5" instead, all of it gone by noon, with, again, a SW wind and highs in the 40s. As if watching PDX get thumped with 14" of surprise thundersnow just four weeks prior while we got shafted was bad enough.

I should note that every season from 2013-2018 ran below normal on snowfall at my place and saw zero subfreezing highs. KSEA records will disagree from time to time but the bad luck was really confined here. At least we did overperform on Christmas Eve 2017... While I was out of town... (in Idaho, at least!)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Let's hope January delivers next year. January 2017 was nice though, 33.5° at PDX, 8.3" of snow officially and 14" in my location, and a low temp of 11, coldest since Dec 1998. Sadly it was pretty localized around Portland though.

January 2017 was good, our biggest snow here was on New Years. Silverton actually had an extremely localized 3-5” snow dump on the evening of 1/1/17. A very thin snow band set up right along the edge of the foothills. There was about a mile stretch between my house and town that was too low in elevation during the morning snow and slightly to Far East to get hit by the evening band. I believe a similar band the evening impacted the Canby and Oregon City areas. The 1/7/17 overrunning event was good for the Salem area too. 
 

Our biggest single day event that winter was 3/6 and February was slightly snowier than January.

[TacomaWx]

Best of that shower missed us to the west but we’re up to 0.16” today and 0.27” this month. Decently wet day for July haven’t had this much rain in one day since July 2019. 

[Meatyorologist]

I should preface that I am an absolute weenie. It's okay, I have accepted my nature. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

2013-14: Everything went south of here, into OR and SW WA. KSEA recorded upper 20s in early Feb but we warmed to like 35F in this part of the city. Did get a surprise 2" of snow the following night though... Which was of course completely gone by noon the following day with SW'lies and highs in the upper 40s. Ended up below normal on snowfall with 4" or so.

2016-17: Everything went everywhere but here. Lots of snow in OR, some events to the north. Fairly chilly overall, but hardly any snow outside of two overrunning events, one in Dec and one in Jan. Actually had a below normal snowfall season, totaling 3", below the long running average of 6".

Also included one of the most heartbreaking weather events in recent memory. Early Feb the stars were aligned to dump around 8" of wet snow in the area, but as the event unfolded the transition to snow kept delaying. Ended up that north Seattle was the epicenter where the changeover happened last, and where the accumulations were minimized. Got 1.5" instead, all of it gone by noon, with, again, a SW wind and highs in the 40s. As if watching PDX get thumped with 14" of surprise thundersnow just four weeks prior while we got shafted was bad enough.

I should note that every season from 2013-2018 ran below normal on snowfall at my place and saw zero subfreezing highs. KSEA records will disagree from time to time but the bad luck was really confined here. At least we did overperform on Christmas Eve 2017... While I was out of town... (in Idaho, at least!)

Nice to see that Feb 2019 broke that stretch of bad luck, 21" in one month! Wow, the disparity between subfreezing highs is crazy, PDX had 16 subfreezing highs in that stretch. I probably had a few less than that being a bit farther from the Gorge though.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2017 was good, our biggest snow here was on New Years. Silverton actually had an extremely localized 3-5” snow dump on the evening of 1/1/17. A very thin snow band set up right along the edge of the foothills. There was about a mile stretch between my house and town that was too low in elevation during the morning snow and slightly to Far East to get hit by the evening band. I believe a similar band the evening impacted the Canby and Oregon City areas. The 1/7/17 overrunning event was good for the Salem area too. 
 

Our biggest single day event that winter was 3/6 and February was slightly snowier than January.

My area had some snow on 1/1 as well, around a half inch. I had another half inch on the 7th and then the big storm on the 10th/11th.

[TacomaWx]

We actually didn’t too too bad in the 2013-2018 period…not as great as the last few years but we had some good ones in there especially 2016-2017 and 2017-2018. 

[Doinko]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Toasty Tuesday on the 00z…

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Nice to see that Feb 2019 broke that stretch of bad luck, 21" in one month! Wow, the disparity between subfreezing highs is crazy, PDX had 16 subfreezing highs in that stretch. I probably had a few less than that being a bit farther from the Gorge though.

Seattle can be finicky like that. If we don't score on the transition we can be left stranded north of the boundary zone, getting shafted while subsequent disturbances grace SW WA and OR. Though being this far north means BC sliders are really effective and transitions often pop up deformation bands over the area, while the CZ is a natural and reliable feature while we change over.

Being in the lee of the Olympics can be a blessing or a curse, too. Sometimes potent Arctic fronts stall between the terrain, causing an artificially extended thumping of snow (Dec 2021), or other times downsloping can leave us completely shadowed (Jan 2005.)

[Front Ranger]

94 degrees at 11 pm. Relentless temps 100+ with high humidity. No matter what your preferences, can't imagine many would find this enjoyable summer weather.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

94 degrees at 11 pm. Relentless temps 100+ with high humidity. No matter what your preferences, can't imagine many would find this enjoyable summer weather.

Incoming Phil telling us Tim would love this

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Seattle can be finicky like that. If we don't score on the transition we can be left stranded north of the boundary zone, getting shafted while subsequent disturbances grace SW WA and OR. Though being this far north means BC sliders are really effective and transitions often pop up deformation bands over the area, while the CZ is a natural and reliable feature while we change over.

Being in the lee of the Olympics can be a blessing or a curse, too. Sometimes potent Arctic fronts stall between the terrain, causing an artificially extended thumping of snow (Dec 2021), or other times downsloping can leave us completely shadowed (Jan 2005.)

My location is probably in one of the driest locations in the metro area (Bethany is just north of US 26 in that yellow dry area in the west metro)

Apparently the east wind accelerating over the west hills can enhance precip over my area during the big snowstorms, but I'm not too sure about it. It would make sense anecdotally because of how I did well in the big snowstorms and got shadowed in some of the smaller events. Someone who knows more can probably correct me though. Somehow there was a coop station in my area just for the winters of 1967/68 (11.6" of snow) and 1968/69 (39" of snow), which is pretty nice.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

94 degrees at 11 pm. Relentless temps 100+ with high humidity. No matter what your preferences, can't imagine many would find this enjoyable summer weather.

Mossman 100% would. Maybe Tim as well.