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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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  1. 1. More original name title?

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  • Longtimer
30 minutes ago, Phil said:

1991/92 was a strong El Niño in the middle of a monster solar maximum in a record breaking +AO regime (partly brought on by O^3 depletion, a result of both anthropogenic CFCs and intense geomagnetic activity).

And 1982/83 was a frickin super niño, also right in the middle of a massive geomagnetic maximum.

Both of those winters were *uniquely* stacked against significant middle latitude cold. The fact they both followed significant volcanic eruptions is dumb luck.

Look what happened in some of the follow-up winters that were setup more favorably for cold:

1983/84: Significant nationwide arctic outbreak in December. Weak Niña.

1984/85: One of the most prolific CONUS arctic blasts on record in January. DC dropped to -11°F. Weak Niña.

1993/94: Record breaking cold in parts of the US. ENSO neutral.

2022/23 looks like a deep La Niña, possibly bonafide strong. With a rapidly descending +QBO at the ideal time to maximize the NPAC high response.

Don’t see any reason for a zonal outcome. At least not now.

Not to mention 1992-93 is the best winter in the PNW since at least 1985.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not to mention 1992-93 is the best winter in the PNW since at least 1985.

And that winter’s setup wasn’t favorable for middle latitude cold either.

Though Tonga is a bit different in that a large quantity of H2O was ejected in addition to various aerosols. So it’s an interesting test case.

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  • Longtimer
27 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Hope they brought a change of underwear. 

That's pretty wild. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Hmmm... Checking out November 1964, looks like Silver Falls recorded 10" of snow on the 13th that month. Not bad given we probably haven't had 10" total in November in the 11 years I've lived here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Hope they brought a change of underwear. 

Was wondering why they didn’t haul a$$ the minute they saw it was coming…. since it looked pretty open.  Guess it was because they already decided to stay in an area that can be sheltered from the avalanche once they changed the camera angles. Had they hauled a** and being in a more opened area, it would be bad. 
 

pretty wild

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  • Longtimer
43 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Offshore SSTs are looking relatively warm, the recent pattern has really suppressed coastal upwelling.

washngtn.fc.gif 

Maybe we can score another major die off event for marine life 🤞 

B975E00E-8CD4-40F3-B44D-51B30434FACB.gif

 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We were living in Stevenson, WA at the time and it was one of the more epic storms I’ve experienced personally. Had a couple highs in the teens and over a foot of snow. All with very strong winds throuout.

What brought you to Stevenson? Such an interesting small town with interesting Gorge weather. So quiet and rural but not far from Vancouver.

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

What brought you to Stevenson? Such an interesting small town with interesting Gorge weather. So quiet and rural but not far from Vancouver.

I was an AmeriCorps reading tutor at Carson elementary. Worked there for three years! 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe we can score another major die off event for marine life 🤞 

B975E00E-8CD4-40F3-B44D-51B30434FACB.gif

 

Don’t worry… the invasive European green crabs are doing that for us already between OR and WA. Some 5000% explosion in population.  And they munch on our shellfish here. 

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57 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe we can score another major die off event for marine life 🤞 

B975E00E-8CD4-40F3-B44D-51B30434FACB.gif

 

Cold kills too.   Do you lie awake at night worrying about nature hurting itself with cold?   How did the Earth make it billions of years without you around to worry about it.  😀

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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31 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Another picture perfect day.  Can we make it last all summer!?!

Way nicer than I was expecting.    I had pegged this day to be cloudy with late day clearing and a high struggling to 70.    That is what the ECMWF had been showing.   It's been sunny almost all day and it's just as warm out here as it was yesterday. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cold kills too.   Do you lie awake at night worrying about nature hurting itself with cold?   How did the Earth make it billions of years without you around to worry about it.  😀

 

There is a distinct difference between "the ground beneath us will not eviscerate into blinding hellfire" and "our current economic practices are destabilizing the climate system to a certain degree."

The Earth has survived for almost 4.5 billion years, but you won't hear any dinosaurs vouching that figure. I wonder what their opinions are on sudden, unadaptable climate change? 🤔

Also, the cold isn't really doing the killing right now, or really at all in this day and age barring strange and increasingly rare anomalous events, so kind of a weird point to make. Our ecosystem is much better equipped for 0°F cold snaps than 100°F+ death ridges.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

There is a distinct difference between "the ground beneath us will not eviscerate into blinding hellfire" and "our current economic practices are destabilizing the climate system to a certain degree."

The Earth has survived for almost 4.5 billion years, but you won't hear any dinosaurs vouching that figure. I wonder what their opinions are on sudden, unadaptable climate change? 🤔

Also, the cold isn't really doing the killing right now, or really at all in this day and age barring strange and increasingly rare anomalous events, so kind of a weird point to make. Our ecosystem is much better equipped for 0°F cold snaps than 100°F+ death ridges.

Please stop and don’t interrupt my comfortable 1% lifestyle and jet setting to Palm Springs and Maui. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

There is a distinct difference between "the ground beneath us will not eviscerate into blinding hellfire" and "our current economic practices are destabilizing the climate system to a certain degree."

The Earth has survived for almost 4.5 billion years, but you won't hear any dinosaurs vouching that figure. I wonder what their opinions are on sudden, unadaptable climate change? 🤔

Also, the cold isn't really doing the killing right now, or really at all in this day and age barring strange and increasingly rare anomalous events, so kind of a weird point to make. Our ecosystem is much better equipped for 0°F cold snaps than 100°F+ death ridges.

Oh Meaty... extreme cold kills life too.   All the time.    It's the way the world works.  

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Please stop and don’t interrupt my comfortable 1% lifestyle and jet setting to Palm Springs and Maui. 

😀   

Have not ever been to Maui... might be going in January.   I assume you will be taking a jet to Dallas.    You should be hiking there.  You are destroying the Earth.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oh Meaty... extreme cold kills life too.   All the time.    It's the way the world works.  

Except extreme cold is becoming increasingly rare; while extreme, unforeseen heat is becoming increasingly commonplace. So that kind of evades the whole point.

Doing nothing because "tHiNgS hAvE cHaNgEd bEfOrE" is stupid, especially when we are making an impact, have the power to stop, and will face very real and very inconvenient detrimental, if not existential, threats..

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

In the tropics the ocean is always warm and they have much prettier fish

Warming ocean temps are decimating coral reefs too.

That should bring me another helping of weenies. 😋 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Except extreme cold is becoming increasingly rare; while extreme, unforeseen heat is becoming increasingly commonplace. So that kind of evades the whole point.

Doing nothing because "tHiNgS hAvE cHaNgEd bEfOrE" is stupid, especially when we are making an impact, have the power to stop, and will face very real and very inconvenient detrimental, if not existential, threats..

Virtue signaling.   And cold still kills more than heat.    Nature is cruel.   Always has been and always will be.

And yes... we should do our best to minimize impacts.   But I sense some pearl-clutching Gretas on here.    As I mentioned... I think the AOCs of the world do way more harm than good.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Virtue signaling.   And cold still kills more than heat.    Nature is cruel.   Always has been and always will be.

And yes... we should do our best to minimize impacts.   But I sense some pearl-clutching Gretas on here.    As I mentioned... I think the AOCs of the world do way more harm than good.

Ridiculous statement and of course you get away with it these days because you can. 🙄

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

What are we arguing about again? Lol it’s a nice day y’all should be out enjoying not arguing! 73/58 today. 

Gorgeous day!  Summer perfection continues. 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Improperly disposed of masks also damage the ecosystem. The most likely people to do that are the ones who think they need to have their masks on any time they step outside the door, even if they are driving alone or hiking.

Why is this idiot still allowed to post here? All he does is post right wing troll statements and he doesn’t even live in the NW. 

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Ridiculous statement and of course you get away with it these days because you can. 🙄

Get away with what?    There was nothing wrong with that statement.    And I bet there are numerous people on this forum who agree with the sentiment.   But its just an opinion.  

Are you a staunch supporter of the Squad?   

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Why is this idiot still allowed to post here? All he does is post right wing troll statements and he doesn’t even live in the NW. 

yeah I agree honestly he’s posted some pretty wack things on here. Seems like everyone just try’s to act like he’s not here 😂

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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Since coming back to the westside my mom has complained about sweating  because of the increase in humidity from the eastside to the westside… and this is a far cry from a humid summer climate. Just goes to show how incredibly dry central/southern OR summers are.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Virtue signaling.   And cold still kills more than heat.    Nature is cruel.   Always has been and always will be.

And yes... we should our best to minimize impacts.   But I sense some pearl-clutching Gretas on here.    As I mentioned... I think the AOCs of the world do way more harm than good.

So if I dislike climate change I'm a virtue-signaling, pearl-clutching, head-in-the-sand, AOC-worshipping Greta lover?

What an unhinged, dickhead reply. I've never approached you or anyone else on here like this.

And the majority of the earth's warming since the beginning of the 20th century is about as "natural" as nuclear war. You are right on one thing though, it sure is pretty damn cruel.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Since coming back to the westside my mom has complained about sweating  because of the increase in humidity from the eastside to the westside… and this is a far cry from a humid summer climate. Just goes to show how incredibly dry central/southern OR summers are.

My wife grew up in Klamath Falls and always talks about humid the summers in the willamette valley are. Then we went to DC in September 2017 and Missouri in August 2020.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I will say to Tim’s point, we’ve now lost 5 aspen trees here due to extreme cold in October and May now. We’ve yet to lose any trees to excessive heat. Around town there were 800 hundred city trees that didn’t come back after October 2020. So at least in this climate, extreme early or late season cold has been much more harmful than the warmth. With that said, we need that extreme cold to continue to keep the pine beetle kill offs at bay.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I will say to Tim’s point, we’ve now lost 5 aspen trees here due to extreme cold in October and May now. We’ve yet to lose any trees to excessive heat. Around town there were 800 hundred city trees that didn’t come back after October 2020. So at least in this climate, extreme early or late season cold has been much more harmful than the warmth. With that said, we need that extreme cold to continue to keep the pine beetle kill offs at bay.

When did anyone ever say cold or snow doesn’t kill? There were a bunch of trees lost thanks to the freakish April snowstorm here, for instance.

But for obvious reasons, ecological problems associated with a warming climate are of much broader concern going forward. Micro-examples to the contrary notwithstanding.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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