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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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12Z GFS is just bit different for next weekend compared to its 00Z run.     Much drier and warmer on this run. 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8016000 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8016000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Really nice morning.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

It’ll probably happen in late August / September. The same tropical forcings that produce troughing now produce ridging then.

Not so much right now. Things get weird in the autumn, though.

Phase-8 MJO in October is a western trough/eastern ridge pattern, but that reverses by midwinter. Opposite for phase 4/5 MJO.

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I will gladly take improvements one week out for a summer weekend.   

Less death, more oasis on the 12z GEFS.

E4ABF353-A1C9-4415-B2D1-875BF42BC137.gif

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Less death, more oasis on the 12z GEFS.

E4ABF353-A1C9-4415-B2D1-875BF42BC137.gif

Next weekend looks heavenly on the 12Z GEFS... too bad everyone else in the country will be dead.    The people of the PNW will have to rebuild the country.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-t2m_f_max6-8102400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Next weekend looks heavenly on the 12Z GEFS... too bad everyone else in the country will be dead.    The people of the PNW will have to rebuild the country.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-t2m_f_max6-8102400.png

Can't wait to go to Dallas with my ex-wife next week. :(

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Next weekend looks heavenly on the 12Z GEFS... too bad everyone else in the country will be dead.    The people of the PNW will have to rebuild the country.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-t2m_f_max6-8102400.png

You might be right.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can't wait to go to Dallas with my ex-wife next week. :(

Starting to wonder how hot it will be in Minnesota when we are there in early August.    Probably not as bad as Dallas... but might still be pretty miserable.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can't wait to go to Dallas with my ex-wife next week. :(

Seriously? I’m sorry man that sucks hairy gorilla balls.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

You might be right.

 

There will be a few people left who can make it underground.    Rescue efforts will be launched from Seattle. 

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10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I was merely pointing out that this seasons cherry crop was horrible due to the cold and wet spring. I thought Tim would have agreed with that sentiment but I guess n

The cherry orchard I worked at in high school opened for u-pick yesterday. Unfortunately we were too busy yesterday to get out there, but when I drove by it looked packed with pickers. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A beautiful 74F out there this morning. Hope y'all are having a good day!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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These extreme heat waves around the globe seem to be picking up in frequency and coverage.    Wonder how long it will be before it happens here again?   Guessing summer of 2023.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Starting to wonder how hot it will be in Minnesota when we are there in early August.    Probably not as bad as Dallas... but might still be pretty miserable.  

Death ridge should still be going strong by then. Might even be stronger by then.

Good news for you!

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Seriously? I’m sorry man that sucks hairy gorilla balls.

Yeah. Sunday-Tuesday (Next Sunday not tomorrow.). Good news is we are meeting up down there so I can bring the kids back to Oregon. They are looking forward to relief from the heat, but they have been swimming all day every day to beat the Oklahoma heat this summer. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Death ridge should still be going strong by then. Might even be stronger by then.

Good news for you!

We will be bragging about our oasis of green and temps in the 70s and low 80s.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

These extreme heat waves around the globe seem to be picking up in frequency and coverage.    Wonder how long it will be before it happens here again?   Guessing summer of 2023.  

As long as we get NAILED this winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

These extreme heat waves around the globe seem to be picking up in frequency and coverage.    Wonder how long it will be before it happens here again?   Guessing summer of 2023.  

Whenever the next El Niño transition summer is.

Most likely 2024? Could be next year but I’m skeptical of a +ENSO flip if we’re under full blown +QBO spring. Will tend to stunt eastward propagation of MJO/WWB activity.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As long as we get NAILED this winter. 

We will. We all will.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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We haven’t hit 100°F since 2016. Have miraculously avoided the really deadly stuff of recent years.

Though much of that is because humidity has been through the roof. Lots of mid/upper 90s with sky high dews.

At some point the dam is going to break, though, and I’ll probably have to flee the region. 😂 

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It still seems like the most similar recent year to this one was 2011. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A beautiful 74F out there this morning. Hope y'all are having a good day!

68-70 and been raining moderately for the last few hours in NE KY.

Hard to process Mike's tweet up above with this right now. lol

I hope it hasn't been too dry by @hawkstwelve

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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15 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

68-70 and been raining moderately for the last few hours in NE KY.

Hard to process Mike's tweet up above with this right now. lol

I hope it hasn't been too dry by @hawkstwelve

When we went out to Ashland/Ironton it was always summer. It was always so green and lush, but the humidity could be ungodly. The good thing about summer in NE Oklahoma was that at some point in July it dried out and the humidity becomes tolerable. Not so much in Kentucky. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

68-70 and been raining moderately for the last few hours in NE KY.

Hard to process Mike's tweet up above with this right now. lol

I hope it hasn't been too dry by @hawkstwelve

Today is the most amazing July day I’ve experienced here, I think.

Its in the UPPER 60s with mist and fog. Actually feels cool outside. I’m under the gazebo right now taking it all in. How Tim can dislike this weather is beyond my comprehension.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Today is the most amazing July day I’ve experienced here, I think.

Its in the UPPER 60s with mist and fog. Actually feels cool outside. I’m under the gazebo right now taking it all in. How Tim can dislike this weather is beyond my comprehension.

It says 72 on your sig. The one bad day (July 3) had mid 50s for the highs in some areas in Washington.

Makes me think of our summer trip to Lake Nascimiento. It was over 100 degrees and blasting hot, so we thought the beach might be a little bit cooler. About a 45-minute drive took us to Morro Bay where it was foggy and upper 50s. That's about 10 degrees colder than our average winter highs here.

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

When we went out to Ashland/Ironton it was always summer. It was always so green and lush, but the humidity could be ungodly. The good thing about summer in NE Oklahoma was that at some point in July it dried out and the humidity becomes tolerable. Not so much in Kentucky. 

When the highs are 80's its not too bad. If we can avoid a prolonged heatwave (so far nothing longer than 3-4 days has occurred here), should live through it!

From what I see on summers here, we don't really get a month straight of sizzling days. I'm just glad we didn't pick Texas to move to. Or, Louisiana... :P

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Today is the most amazing July day I’ve experienced here, I think.

Its in the UPPER 60s with mist and fog. Actually feels cool outside. I’m under the gazebo right now taking it all in. How Tim can dislike this weather is beyond my comprehension.

Is it possible for you to experience anything without thinking of me?   Very sad.   😀

Side note... when its nothing but fog and drizzle it gets very old.   Also we aren't escaping oppressive heat when its drizzling out here like you are there right now.  We are missing out on sunny, pleasant weather.   Big difference.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It says 72. The bad day (July 3) had mid 50s for the highs in some areas in Washington.

Makes me think of our summer trip to Lake Nascimiento. It was over 100 degrees and blasting hot, so we thought the beach might be a little bit cooler. About a 45-minute drive took us to Morro Bay where it was foggy and upper 50s. That's colder than our average winter highs here.

You can’t really compare localized, coastal fog belt microclimates in CA with anything inland. They are completely different climate zones.

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