On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

You might be right.

 

Shades of 1955.  The NW and New England the only cool areas.

At this point the models are locking into a persistent cool to seasonal pattern for the NW with a powerful GOA ridge setting up shop.  Could be a great pattern for us with the trough axis east of where it was earlier in the summer.  Good shot at early cold this autumn.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

10 day euro totals. Looks like some decent variable weather coming up with some nice sunny days too. 

I can live with being clipped from time to time.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Today is the most amazing July day I’ve experienced here, I think.

Its in the UPPER 60s with mist and fog. Actually feels cool outside. I’m under the gazebo right now taking it all in. How Tim can dislike this weather is beyond my comprehension.

A day like that is nice when it breaks a heatwave or a very long period of sunny / warm weather.  The complaint this year has been too much gloom overall.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We will. We all will.

This is probably going to be the one.  On paper probably the best shot this century so far.  We have a number of indices in 1950s territory.  I'm still not betting on January though.  That month has to prove itself now.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is probably going to be the one.  On paper probably the best shot this century so far.  We have a number of indices in 1950s territory.  I'm still not betting on January though.  That month has to prove itself now.

At least on paper, this year has everything going for it. Really is something else, lol.

- Rapidly descending +QBO (record breaking, in fact).

- Historically deep La Niña regime, well entrenched.

- Negative PMM (both NPMM & SPMM).

- Inclining part of the solar cycle

- Negative IOD, negative SIOD.

- Retracted IPWP/cool western equatorial Pacific.

And more I could probably list. Literally every possible indicator points towards a cold western winter. Which almost makes me second guess if it’s some kind of cosmic joke with an unforeseen punchline.  

[Phil]

Oh, and we’re in the middle of the strongest July trade wind burst ever recorded. Lmao.

[Omegaraptor]

46 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least on paper, this year has everything going for it. Really is something else, lol.

- Rapidly descending +QBO (record breaking, in fact).

- Historically deep La Niña regime, well entrenched.

- Negative PMM (both NPMM & SPMM).

- Inclining part of the solar cycle

- Negative IOD, negative SIOD.

- Retracted IPWP/cool western equatorial Pacific.

And more I could probably list. Literally every possible indicator points towards a cold western winter. Which almost makes me second guess if it’s some kind of cosmic joke with an unforeseen punchline.  

Are there any ANALogs Gone Wild that seem close to this upcoming winter yet? From what we have at least?

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Are there any ANALogs Gone Wild that seem close to this upcoming winter yet? From what we have at least?

1949/50? Lol. Pretty far back but it’s a match. 2010/11, 1998/99, 1984/85, and perhaps 1955/56 are also worth considering.

Timing of QBO switch w/ this La Niña regime is interesting, to say the least. Pretty big disconnect with most years in the satellite era.

[Phil]

If it’s true the system was transitioning out of La Niña before the Hunga Tonga eruption, then it’d explain why most years with analogous shear stress weren’t deep niñas.

Makes this year pretty special. And might reduce the chance of +ENSO in 2023/24.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect summer day... 80 degrees and a little humid with almost no wind and the lake is flat.   Water temp of 73.  Does not get any better on a summer weekend.

[joelgombiner]

Nina projected to strengthen. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

1949/50? Lol. Pretty far back but it’s a match. 2010/11, 1998/99, 1984/85, and perhaps 1955/56 are also worth considering.

Timing of QBO switch w/ this La Niña regime is interesting, to say the least. Pretty big disconnect with most years in the satellite era.

Interesting group of analogs. To an extent I think 2010-11 is a little underrated. I think most people in the Puget Sound region have a high opinion of it, but not so much down here. However, the two arctic airmasses we had were pretty impressive for when they struck in the season. Also the week or so around New Year's was pretty chilly and under appreciated. 

For what it's worth when I look back at 21-22' and 10-11' across the story of my life, they will end up being viewed pretty similarly overall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1955-56 and 1984-85 seem like decent analogs. 

1998-99 was fantastic in the Cascades, not so great in the lowlands aside from the arctic outbreak in December. We have probably already out performed the last two 3 year Nina's. Time to pad the lead. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Two record Min Max's at Silver Falls in May. 

5/8: 45 ties the record from 1999

5/9: 47 breaks the record of 48 from 2002. 

 

Looks like Silver Falls set record min/max's April 10-14th. The 12th was also their latest sub-35 high on record beating 4/4/12. 

Edited July 9, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

Summer perfection! 
Currently 72. 

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This is probably going to be the one.  On paper probably the best shot this century so far.  We have a number of indices in 1950s territory.  I'm still not betting on January though.  That month has to prove itself now.

The last time PDX area had significant accumulating snowfall in April was 1936.

The Midwest and Great Plains had an extremely hot summer with multiple severe heat waves in 1936. The only parts of the country that didn’t roast that summer were the West Coast and New England.

Think we all know what happened in January 1937.

I’m not saying it’s an analog… but there are definitely some coincidences.

[Timmy Supercell]

42 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

June only had 67% of our usual rainfall. It was pretty dry. So far July is following in it's tracks with only 0.76 recorded. Luckily we had a fairly wet May or else we'd probably be a lot worse off than we already are. 

It's funny how once you move from a climate with extreme rainfall to a climate that seemingly struggles to get it, your relationship with rain changes. I now root to get some rain, not only for my local vegetation but especially knowing how vital this region is for our nation's agriculture. Quite the opposite for when I was in the PNW, especially the past few years.

Unfortunately the models aren't showing much help coming with only a couple tenths at most over the next 10 days while we bake under a fairly stout ridge. No bueno.  

Here so far it looks like every month has been at least running normal and a few wet ones since moving to my place. I heard our winters are drier than every other time of year, but we got washed out in December and February. 

Over just the last few days I've had 1.5-2" rain here, so July could be a top month still as we're only a third into it. June/July normally are supposed to be the wetter months out here. June might not rank that high this year, because of a really wet late winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the cold snap in late February also broke/tied two record lows at Silver Falls. 

The 14 on the 23rd broke the record of 20 from 1951 and the 19 on the 24th tied the record from 1962. 

Kind of low hanging fruit records there, Silver Falls hit single digits at the end of the month in 1962, 10 on 2/26/11, and 10 on 3/4/1955.

Wow, March 1955 was cold! Silver Falls had an average low of 29.6 that month.

Edited July 9, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Someone mentioned 1936 earlier. October and November were unbelievably dry that year. Tim would love it. 

[TacomaWx]

Up to 74 here. 

[MossMan]

If this coming winter season does in fact feature a 3rd year PhilNiña, the expectations will be massive! 
1950 or bust. 

[Omegaraptor]

36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Someone mentioned 1936 earlier. October and November were unbelievably dry that year. Tim would love it. 

Meh I wouldn’t mind. November tends to be my least favorite month around here weather-wise. Wettest month of the year yet upper level temps are often still warm and the ski resorts rarely open before Thanksgiving as a result.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Meh I wouldn’t mind. November tends to be my least favorite month around here weather-wise. Wettest month of the year yet upper level temps are often still warm and the ski resorts rarely open before Thanksgiving as a result.

That November had some cold lows.

[LowerGarfield]

Went shopping today in Lewiston, ID  and Clarkston, WA. When I left it was just about 90F. Here it is still warm, but at 82F it feels a lot cooler. While I'm not high elevation, at 1850 feet it does make it a bit more bearable.  It's warm inside the house but very pleasant outside and a nice breeze from the west wind also.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we've topped out in the mid-70s again today. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting group of analogs. To an extent I think 2010-11 is a little underrated. I think most people in the Puget Sound region have a high opinion of it, but not so much down here. However, the two arctic airmasses we had were pretty impressive for when they struck in the season. Also the week or so around New Year's was pretty chilly and under appreciated. 

For what it's worth when I look back at 21-22' and 10-11' across the story of my life, they will end up being viewed pretty similarly overall. 

Coincidentally; Dec 2010 was pretty snowy following a dry January, but Feb 2011 was very snowy unlike Feb 2022 in southern Oregon. So slight differences. There was an 8-9 week stretch it didn't snow in K-Falls this year through St. Patricks. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Shocking turn for February in the 2020's considering how well it has performed from 2011-2019 where I lived. I believe two of the top 5 driest Februaries occurred in the last 3 winters there.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

June only had 67% of our usual rainfall. It was pretty dry. So far July is following in it's tracks with only 0.76 recorded. Luckily we had a fairly wet May or else we'd probably be a lot worse off than we already are. 

It's funny how once you move from a climate with extreme rainfall to a climate that seemingly struggles to get it, your relationship with rain changes. I now root to get some rain, not only for my local vegetation but especially knowing how vital this region is for our nation's agriculture. Quite the opposite for when I was in the PNW, especially the past few years.

Unfortunately the models aren't showing much help coming with only a couple tenths at most over the next 10 days while we bake under a fairly stout ridge. No bueno.  

EXACTLY.   I used to cheer endlessly for rain in San Diego.  Same in Minnesota in the summer.   It was all I cared about there.    Totally pointless to cheer for rain here.   It comes in abundance forever.   Too easy.   Now I cheer for sun like I used to cheer for rain.   

People on here seem to struggle to understand that concept.   Trying moving to a totally different climate.   Your priorities change.   

[LowerGarfield]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EXACTLY.   I used to cheer endlessly for rain in San Diego.  Same in Minnesota in the summer.   It was all I cared about there.    Totally pointless to cheer for rain here.   It comes in abundance forever.   Too easy.   Now I cheer for sun like I used to cheer for rain.   

People on here seem to struggle to understand that concept.   Trying moving to a totally different climate.   Your priorities change.   

When I lived in NorCal...rain is worshipped like how this forum worships snow and cold models. All the CA weather blogs blow up during rain storms. I moved to the PNW in 2012 and except when I lived in CB for two and a half years, I have always enjoyed rain. CB rain was just normal from 2nd or 3rd week of Oct through April but it made the rain non rainy day special. I even watch for storms in CA during the winter. Even Stanwood felt like my semi-arid current location compared to Cannon Beach. Cannon Beach gives you a feel for Lewis and Clark's horrible  non stop rainy winter of 1805-1806. I feel like this forum would complain about that winter if the internet existed then. I liked rain in Western WA and I love it here.

[TT-SEA]

So gorgeous out here... just perfect weather.    Seeing some clouds indicative of stronger winds aloft.   But almost calm at the surface.   

[T-Town]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So gorgeous out here... just perfect weather.    Seeing some clouds indicative of stronger winds aloft.   But almost calm at the surface.   

Kinda breezy here and 77. Doesn’t get much better. 

[TacomaWx]

76/54 here today. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That November had some cold lows.

1935 and 1936 was similar to 2002 and 2003 in that we had back to back years with arctic air at the beginning of November. The November 1936 event was decidedly more back door in nature, kind of similar to Halloween 2002.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like a great mix of weather coming up. 

[TT-SEA]

Third day in a row with 77 at SEA.

Lucky 7s indeed.   

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Oh, and we’re in the middle of the strongest July trade wind burst ever recorded. Lmao.

Truly remarkable how much potential we have this time around.

[snow_wizard]

 

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Meh I wouldn’t mind. November tends to be my least favorite month around here weather-wise. Wettest month of the year yet upper level temps are often still warm and the ski resorts rarely open before Thanksgiving as a result.

You should have seen November 1985 though.  That is certainly the most anomalous month I've ever witnessed.

[MossMan]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

 

You should have seen November 1985 though.  That is certainly the most anomalous month I've ever witnessed.

It was sure a fun month! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Albuquerque.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Albuquerque.