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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

excited breaking bad GIF

Still made it up to the mid-90’s before the monsoon showers hit. Tomorrow should be a very similar pattern. The skies are dramatic here but I don’t miss the temperature extremes. I will be happy to get back to the Wet Coast.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Shades of 1955.  The NW and New England the only cool areas.

At this point the models are locking into a persistent cool to seasonal pattern for the NW with a powerful GOA ridge setting up shop.  Could be a great pattern for us with the trough axis east of where it was earlier in the summer.  Good shot at early cold this autumn.

November 2022?

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

At least on paper, this year has everything going for it. Really is something else, lol.

- Rapidly descending +QBO (record breaking, in fact).

- Historically deep La Niña regime, well entrenched.

- Negative PMM (both NPMM & SPMM).

- Inclining part of the solar cycle

- Negative IOD, negative SIOD.

- Retracted IPWP/cool western equatorial Pacific.

And more I could probably list. Literally every possible indicator points towards a cold western winter. Which almost makes me second guess if it’s some kind of cosmic joke with an unforeseen punchline. :lol: 

Is there anything that can screw us over? 2000/2001 repeat?!?!

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26 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

We can be screwed over for any number of reasons any winter, it's always a gamble here.

Yeah as much hype as there seems to be for this winter I’m definitely not getting my hopes up. We’ve had so many good ones recently…I don’t think it’ll be a dud honestly but who knows. 

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35 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

We can be screwed over for any number of reasons any winter, it's always a gamble here.

Yep.

I know some people will vehemently disagree... but I think Tonga might work against us.    Stratospheric water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas and the levels are off the charts and it seems like most of the planet is really warm right now... including all of the oceans.   I think there is a better chance that we get a bunch of warm AR events rather than arctic air.    I certainly hope I am wrong.   Snow and cold is way more fun than flooding rain.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep.

I know some people will vehemently disagree... but I think Tonga might work against us.    Stratospheric water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas and the levels are off the charts and it seems like most of the planet is really warm right now... including all of the oceans.   I think there is a better chance that we get a bunch of warm AR events rather than arctic air.    I certainly hope I am wrong.   Snow and cold is way more fun than flooding rain.

I honestly don’t really think it’s gonna have any real significant warming/cooling effects. I’m no scientist but that’s just what I think will happen. 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

I honestly don’t really think it’s gonna have any real significant warming/cooling effects. I’m no scientist but that’s just what I think will happen. 

I be surprised if it didn't have an overall warming effect worldwide... its almost inevitable based on pumping that much water vapor into the stratosphere based on what I have read.    Supposedly stratospheric water vapor has a very small impact on sunlight reaching the surface (unlike SO2) but aids in trapping warmth.   Even so... some places could be colder and maybe that will be the PNW.   But I also think its going to mean more moisture and wetter storms and a stronger jet stream.  

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GEFS is the model of consistency.    And probably a little warmer than reality.    Today was 1 degree too warm at SEA... and tomorrow looks too warm.    But it still looks fairly steady and very nice.  

 

gfs-ensemble-all-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-7389600.jpg

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I be surprised if it didn't have an overall warming effect worldwide... its almost inevitable based on pumping that much water vapor into the stratosphere based on what I have read.    Supposedly stratospheric water vapor has a very small impact on sunlight reaching the surface (unlike SO2) but aids in trapping warmth.   Even so... some places could be colder and maybe that will be the PNW.   But I also think its going to mean more moisture and wetter storms and a stronger jet stream.  

I hope it’s enough that it has some other effect that overwhelms this water vapor heat trap relationship. Like - maybe it’s enough to break some normal circulations or perhaps does have an incremental impact on sunlight. I don’t know. Those graphs Phil post make it look like it went from 0 to 100. Has there been any theories published as to what if any effects there have been so far? @Phil

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be a pretty wild change of pace if the earth’s climate starting warming 

Would not be a change of pace... but adding a sh*tload of greenhouse gas to the stratosphere can't be good for slowing it down.  

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Nice day.  Hit a high of 71F here.  The skies were beautiful today.  Though strangely in the evening hours it got quite windy and dark clouds have rolled in covering the majority of the blue sky.  Long term forecast here in Everett is low 70s pretty much every day. 1305187600_ScreenShot2022-07-09at9_00_13PM.thumb.png.4d08eab7e9a09916d4838a74161a0f9f.pngDSCN0640.thumb.JPG.181f972876f695458a8a0de796bef4b1.JPGDSCN0643.thumb.JPG.d2b07e15348faa85097ef5fc39970eb5.JPGDSCN0644.thumb.JPG.644559eca172e1052b4c8ea0e6233d96.JPGDSCN0649.thumb.JPG.b79ab0bee04f3e7a22018aef24cf8231.JPGDSCN0652.thumb.JPG.cc93b78df1252e04433ee3abc37d011c.JPGDSCN0653.thumb.JPG.cbd02300e8d53e9a5efaab511a2aabe1.JPG

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Likely just the opposite... it will probably make it wetter.   Similar to what we saw from April - June.    Jet stream on steroids and abundant moisture.

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Script flips for at least a little while later this week with cool weather in the interior of Alaska and the panhandle where its been so unusually warm this summer.   

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-7843200.png

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Erroneous back-digging phases the trough with the wrong ULL.

Should be phased with the one right offshore.

3CB3A424-F17E-4FBD-A3FA-30EF51B8CDBA.jpeg

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Phil... I hear this winter will blowtorch because of Tonga. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil... I hear this winter will blowtorch because of Tonga. 

Would not surprise me if its extremely wet.   You would love it... I would not.

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43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I be surprised if it didn't have an overall warming effect worldwide... its almost inevitable based on pumping that much water vapor into the stratosphere based on what I have read.    Supposedly stratospheric water vapor has a very small impact on sunlight reaching the surface (unlike SO2) but aids in trapping warmth.   Even so... some places could be colder and maybe that will be the PNW.   But I also think its going to mean more moisture and wetter storms and a stronger jet stream.  

It’s a lot more complicated than that.

The effect on “global temperature” will probably be minuscule, maybe a few tenths of a degree. But the effects on global circulation appear to be significant.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is too cut-off again D5-6.

At least it went a week without making that mistake. Progress?

Hope its wrong... I like the 12Z run much better for next weekend.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s a lot more complicated than that.

The effect on “global temperature” will probably be minuscule, maybe a few tenths of a degree. But the effects on global circulation appear to be significant.

Phil the oceans are on fire!!!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil the oceans are on fire!!!

Not as on-fire as you’ll be next week in TX. 😄

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil the oceans are on fire!!!

Pretty warm across the globe overall.

I am making a case for your dream scenario and something I would not like at all.     You think I am cheering for a strong jet stream and lots of flooding again?     I just feel like that might end being the reality.    

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7-day change map below.   This recent pattern has been very effective at warming the water off the West Coast... persistent southerly flow.  

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (9).png

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

7-day change map below.   This recent pattern has been very effective at warming the water off the West Coast... persistent southerly flow.  

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (9).png

That tropical West-Pacific cooling is beautiful. Key to a cool back half of summer right there.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

That tropical West-Pacific cooling is beautiful. Key to a cool back half of summer right there.

Its not exactly cold though.   And I thought the warm West Pacific was responsible for our record setting wet April - June?   

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (5).png

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The best part about these normal summer days is that we cool down so well in the evening (it seems like). I’ve had to turn the window ac on in the kids room because they’re in bed earlier but when I closed up downstairs just now I was genuinely surprised to see it at 63 already. 

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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not exactly cold though.   And I thought the warm West Pacific was responsible for our record setting wet April - June?   

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (5).png

The West-Pacific was not warm, and wasn’t responsible for the record cold during AMJ. Some of that was a result of the SSW, some a product of the re-emerging niña standing wave.

And it is anomalously cold relative to the rest of the tropics. Differential heating is the variable we’re looking at.

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