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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably another 95 at PDX.

This isn't bad, but I can't escape the feeling we are getting primed for a big August...

ens_image.php?geoid=135742&var=201&run=6

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Ended up with a 95/57 day yesterday. Pretty much in line with what seemed to be expected at least up here.

Clear with a low of 62 this morning. Kind of crazy to see PDX struggle to fall below 70. It used to take an exceptional event for lows like that there, now it seems to happen just about every other heat event.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some ridiculously warm lows this morning. SLE and PDX only got down to 68. Major UHI going on there. 

 

I only got down to 68º as well, and UHI isn't an issue at my rural location.

I was able to get down to 69º even in last June's Heatwave from Hell. My warmest overnight low has been 70º on 2 occasions after 103º days both times. Don't have the exact dates offhand.

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Eujunga said:

I only got down to 68º as well, and UHI isn't an issue at my rural location.

I was able to get down to 69º even in last June's Heatwave from Hell. My warmest overnight low has been 70º on 2 occasions after 103º days both times. Don't have the exact dates offhand.

Seems like you are often above the boundary layer up in the hills. EUG got down to at least 60.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This isn't bad, but I can't escape the feeling we are getting primed for a big August...

ens_image.php?geoid=135742&var=201&run=6

I'll be happy with anything at least vaguely resembling a normal 1971-00 August.

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like you are often above the boundary layer up in the hills. EUG got down to at least 60.

That's true. Just confirming what you said about warmer nights becoming more common, and noting that UHI isn't always the cause of them.

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24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 95/57 day yesterday. Pretty much in line with what seemed to be expected at least up here.

Clear with a low of 62 this morning. Kind of crazy to see PDX struggle to fall below 70. It used to take an exceptional event for lows like that there, now it seems to happen just about every other heat event.

At least it drops below 70°F there. 😭

Still can’t believe we used to drop into the low-50s in late July in the 19th century. WTF happened..it’s not like the globe warmed 15 degrees since then.

Mid-60s is a rarity now. 

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  • Longtimer
10 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Some suggestions on your way back from The west coast would be Cathedral Grove, Coombs, Little qualicum falls and Englishman river falls. 

We stayed in Parksville on Vancouver island in 1999 and saw a few of these spots. Horn Lake caves too.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least it drops below 70°F there. 😭

Still can’t believe we used to drop into the low-50s in late July in the 19th century. WTF happened..it’s not like the globe warmed 15 degrees since then.

Mid-60s is a rarity now. 

Land development?   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least it drops below 70°F there. 😭

Still can’t believe we used to drop into the low-50s in late July in the 19th century. WTF happened..it’s not like the globe warmed 15 degrees since then.

Mid-60s is a rarity now. 

Should go without saying you have a totally different summer climate out there. Even PDX still has average lows on the 50s most of the summer. Seeing them stay close to 70 overnight at the drop of the hat with any sort of summer heatwave lately is bizarre.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Should go without saying you have a totally different summer climate out there. Even PDX still has average lows on the 50s most of the summer. Seeing them stay close to 70 overnight at the drop of the hat with any sort of summer heatwave lately is bizarre.

Agreed. Pretty shocked to see SLE hit 100 yesterday and then only drop to 68. We were 90/54 yesterday and then fell to 58 this morning. Obviously we are typically cooler, but 10 degrees is pretty significant. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Should go without saying you have a totally different summer climate out there. Even PDX still has average lows on the 50s most of the summer. Seeing them stay close to 70 overnight at the drop of the hat with any sort of summer heatwave lately is bizarre.

To have lows near 70 with such an ordinary summer airmass is a bit of a head-scratcher. Maybe more offshore flow keeping things mixed up near the surface than is typical? Outside my pay grade.

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  • Longtimer
11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Land development?   

Yeah, I think that is a bigger piece of the puzzle than people realize. But not all of it. Generally our lows up here are consistently warmer than they were historically. Much moreso than our highs. Kind of interesting and I am not entirely sure why. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Land development?   

I considered that, but this area has remained relatively wooded and less developed since it’s mostly protected parkland. And these old records were kept in more urbanized areas anyway.

I think it has to be circulation related. Because we still had nasty stretches back then with lows around 80°F like now. But much cooler periods were mixed in, with large diurnal spreads. Lows in the 50s were common in the middle of summer. And there was much less rainfall than now.

Maybe the Bermuda High has migrated poleward and prevented cold fronts from dropping south? IDK.

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I think that is a bigger piece of the puzzle than people realize. But not all of it. Generally our lows up here are consistently warmer than they were historically. Much moreso than our highs. Kind of interesting and I am not entirely sure why. 

That’s exactly what I’ve noticed too. We’d hit 100°F just as often in the 19th century as now. Maybe even more often.

But overnight lows are on another planet entirely. We could drop into the 60s at night after a 100°F afternoon. That’s impossible today.

But still there were stretches similar to today with low 90s highs and upper 70s at night. So that kind of weather still happened even back then. But it wasn’t the default.

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I think that is a bigger piece of the puzzle than people realize. But not all of it. Generally our lows up here are consistently warmer than they were historically. Much moreso than our highs. Kind of interesting and I am not entirely sure why. 

I think there is generally more atmospheric moisture with global warming. I was wondering the other day if there was a way to show some sort of trend with the peak DPs at PDX during heat waves over the years. Seems like they have gotten higher in at least the last few decades that I have been observing but that is fairly anecdotal.

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We stayed in Parksville on Vancouver island in 1999 and saw a few of these spots. Horn Lake caves too.

The caves are pretty spectacular and Spider Lake nearby has a really nice swimming beach. 

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Dropped to 54F here and still 58F at 9 a.m. with a strong marine push (wind gusting to 20 mph). I can usually count on one hand the number of days we have a low stay above 60F (still haven't had one this year). Obviously I don't know the historical context, but up here right next to the sound I think the summer lows have remained pretty consistent.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think there is generally more atmospheric moisture with global warming. I was wondering the other day if there was a way to show some sort of trend with the peak DPs at PDX during heat waves over the years. Seems like they have gotten higher in at least the last few decades that I have been observing but that is fairly anecdotal.

I couldn't find something exactly like you meant, but I did find the spread of dew points throughout the summer months in past years, looks like there is a very slight upwards trend. image.thumb.png.3265a72ef515da8ba223aec250cde6dd.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Dropped to 54F here and still 58F at 9 a.m. with a strong marine push (wind gusting to 20 mph). I can usually count on one hand the number of days we have a low stay above 60F (still haven't had one this year). Obviously I don't know the historical context, but up here right next to the sound I think the summer lows have remained pretty consistent.

I think we’ve had 3 or 4 +60 lows so far this year. 

 

Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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Moon was very bright last night and the sunrise was pretty nice. Could’ve gotten a better sunrise photo but it was 4am and I didn’t want to leave my tent lol. Got a lot of sun on me yesterday can feel that I’m slightly burned so heading home currently. 

97173D24-6960-4E99-B917-EB64A5B0F719.jpeg

5BBF3342-0901-4D62-BB61-C16AFBB36DF9.jpeg

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wow the 12z GFS is completely out to lunch now.

And the Canadian too. 😂

Both have a Pacific MJO bias. Wonder if that’s related somehow.

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think there is generally more atmospheric moisture with global warming. I was wondering the other day if there was a way to show some sort of trend with the peak DPs at PDX during heat waves over the years. Seems like they have gotten higher in at least the last few decades that I have been observing but that is fairly anecdotal.

This makes sense. It's interesting looking at the Silver Falls data, they used to have single digit lows fairly regularly. At least once every 2-3 years, and in 1955-56 they had one every month November-February. They've only had single digit lows recorded in 2009 and 2013 this century. It has to be more than happenstance. 

The big thing I notice about the lows is in the fall, when I moved up here the average first freeze date was September 23rd. We haven't had a frost before that date since I've lived here, and have only had freezes in September once or twice. Off the top of my head I would say our average first freeze since 2011 has been probably around October 20th. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

And the Canadian too. 😂

Both have a Pacific MJO bias. Wonder if that’s playing a role.

I remember a week ago the GFS was showing yesterday and today being quite warm... total fail.   It was only 100 at SLE yesterday.   Wimpy!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, Phil said:

At least it drops below 70°F there. 😭

Still can’t believe we used to drop into the low-50s in late July in the 19th century. WTF happened..it’s not like the globe warmed 15 degrees since then.

Mid-60s is a rarity now. 

No one cares. This is a western forum. 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I remember a week ago the GFS was showing yesterday and today being quite warm... total fail.   It was only 100 at SLE yesterday.   Wimpy!

I like cherries too. 🍒

Might be time for another gentleman’s wager.

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think there is generally more atmospheric moisture with global warming. I was wondering the other day if there was a way to show some sort of trend with the peak DPs at PDX during heat waves over the years. Seems like they have gotten higher in at least the last few decades that I have been observing but that is fairly anecdotal.

That probably has a great deal to do with why summers are now so endogenously warm... Even our cool patterns are stunted by 4-6F due to roided DP's.

And while it is a global problem, our normally dry summer environment leaves us particularly susceptible to moistening. A place like DC for instance definitely has gotten more moist, but it can only get so saturated, like an already sopping sponge. Extra moisture in the tropics and places like DC (SE Asia too) is shunted north and absorbed by the parch midlatitudes (made more parched by the uneven warming targeting the poles and midlatitudes more than the subtropics and tropics!)

Another factor may be the recent roiding of the 4CH and the northward displacement of the descending hadley cell. It leaves us under the crossfire of increasingly prevelant SW'lies, potentially forcing even more localized warming and moistening over the western US. One of the hallmarks of the cold summers of the 50s and even 90s and early 2000s was deep troughing and persistent NW flow. Now we can't sustain NW'lies for more than a few days at a time, and deep troughing is incredibly transient, more so than normal summer climo. How much of that is due to AGW is unclear but it sure has put a dampener on our summer cooling abilities.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This makes sense. It's interesting looking at the Silver Falls data, they used to have single digit lows fairly regularly. At least once every 2-3 years, and in 1955-56 they had one every month November-February. They've only had single digit lows recorded in 2009 and 2013 this century. It has to be more than happenstance. 

The big thing I notice about the lows is in the fall, when I moved up here the average first freeze date was September 23rd. We haven't had a frost before that date since I've lived here, and have only had freezes in September once or twice. Off the top of my head I would say our average first freeze since 2011 has been probably around October 20th. 

I’ve looked into this. It seems like 1998-99 is when a major shift happened and Western cold just drastically dropped in frequency. Before 1998 Government Camp would get subzero lows about once-twice a year on average. Since 1999 it’s only happened a couple times, about once every 4-5 years. I think it’s a system state / circulation change of some sort.

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I’ve looked into this. It seems like 1998-99 is when a major shift happened and Western cold just drastically dropped in frequency. Before 1998 Government Camp would get subzero lows about once-twice a year on average. Since 1999 it’s only happened a couple times, about once every 4-5 years. I think it’s a system state / circulation change of some sort.

That and the unthinkable amount of excess energy in the atmosphere compared to then.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Gunning for the 2071-2100 normal of 88F today

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

Here are some graphs I've made comparing my Vancouver and Battle Ground stations to Portland. 

Note I've only had my BG station since 2011, so that's as far as those graphs go.

Last year was the first 60+ average for the entire summer at PDX.

The top line in all graphs is PDX, then my Vancouver station followed by BG.

Average Lows Long Term.jpg

60+ Long Term.jpg

Coldest.jpg

Average Lows.jpg

60+.jpg

Edited by Tyler Mode
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  • Longtimer
2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 95/57 day yesterday. Pretty much in line with what seemed to be expected at least up here.

Clear with a low of 62 this morning. Kind of crazy to see PDX struggle to fall below 70. It used to take an exceptional event for lows like that there, now it seems to happen just about every other heat event.

Last night wasn’t a fluke, though. The thermal trough was parked right over the valley which never mixed out fully yesterday which allowed dew points to remain elevated and kept an ever so slight subsidence inversion in place. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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  • Longtimer
20 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Here are some graphs I've made comparing my Vancouver and Battle Ground stations to Portland. 

Note I've only had my BG station since 2011, so that's as far as those graphs go.

Last year was the first 60+ average for the entire summer at PDX.

The top line in all graphs is PDX, then my Vancouver station followed by BG.

Average Lows Long Term.jpg

60+ Long Term.jpg

Coldest.jpg

Average Lows.jpg

60+.jpg

Good stuff, we can clearly see the trend is less apparent on the more "rural" BG station. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s extremely clear out there can confirm0CC04355-041D-40D6-AE52-B4F47365CE98.thumb.jpeg.a594686118a322ae4d1979c76388935e.jpeg

What are those weird floating things. ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Last night wasn’t a fluke, though. The thermal trough was parked right over the valley which never mixed out fully yesterday which allowed dew points to remain elevated and kept an ever so slight subsidence inversion in place. 

Trust a lawyer to provide a sensible meteorological explanation. Add a dash of UHI as Andrew suggested, and there you have your 71º overnight low.

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