On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December 1972 is one of the greatest in Western Oregon. A slightly juicier version of December 2013.

Just a pedestrian 5/-28 (and also a 4/-27) at Sisters. If I had lived in Corvallis I would probably have cold-chased it. Who cares about finals week, lol. Lots of -30s in Central OR too.

Coldest in Oregon was Seneca at -40, although some places around Fort Rock got close. Termo in northern Lassen County also got to -40, being the only place in CA besides Boca to get a -40 reading.

[The Blob]

It looks nice outside my window as I self isolate..

For the eclipse we stayed home, didn't want to deal with the traffic coming home from it. Though we are thinking of going to Texas in 2024 for the next total eclipse. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

I guess it could make sense, the WRCC shows the coolest temp as 3 degrees (Dec 1972) though. My area isn't typically the coldest spot in the Metro area at night, I think we were actually warmer than PDX on Jan 13th, 2017, but maybe we got luckier those times.

Yeah, I agree that the general area there isn't typically one of the better radiational cooling spots.

1972 generally fared better for lows around the Portland area than 1983. Vancouver dropped to 0 after the first snowstorm on the 5th and then got down to -1 following the 2nd snowstorm on the 11th. And PDX even got into the single digits, which has only happened in one airmass since then (1989). 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I was guilty of it too. Usually try to steer clear of those topics but failed at that yesterday.

It happens. We are human. We have our opinions, they slip through. As long as it doesn't happen too often, and when it does it remains civil, it is fine.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

My first winter weather memory is from around this time. Woke up to no power, arctic cold and big snow drifts. Not sure of the year but it would make sense that it was December 1972 if that blast produced a decent snowstorm in Tacoma. 

January 1972 was really epic for the South Sound up through North Seattle. 12-20" accumulations for most areas going into a prolonged Arctic airmass. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I was guilty of it too. Usually try to steer clear of those topics but failed at that yesterday.

 

Looks like I picked a heck of a day to skip the forum...

I was on a little bit in the morning, but things were still pretty mild..

 

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Already an impressive thermocline response. And this trade surge will continue for several weeks at least. In fact another major “surge within the surge” seems likely in mid-August.

Niño 3.4 SSTAs should begin dropping within a week.

I'd still like to see the subsurface get more impressive if this Nina is to go into stupid strong territory this fall.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the entire state of WA is cloud free at the moment.   Might be the first time this year that has happened.   

Didn't that happen for a couple days in the beginning of our June heatwave?

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

Looks like I picked a heck of a day to skip the forum...

I was on a little bit in the morning, but things were still pretty mild..

 

I hid most of the posts. It was getting lengthy and nearly devolved into something less civil.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Didn't that happen for a couple days in the beginning of our June heatwave?

Good point... probably did. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'd still like to see the subsurface get more impressive if this Nina is to go into stupid strong territory this fall.

It’ll get there. The erosion of subsurface warmth has been quite rapid over the last 2 weeks as upwelling and easterly currents develop in response to the trade winds.

Have to consider the fluid inertia of the oceans into the equation. Takes a bit more time to get the OKW response going, but it’s also harder to stop once it starts. And the speed of this response is indicative of a significant cooling to come, IMO.

[Phil]

Looks like the 12z GFS makes the exact same mistake the 06z did, just a few days later.

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

66 here already with a nice breeze. Nws says 87 today in tacoma so hopefully the breeze keeps going. 

I think we ought to max out at 83-85 the next 2 days. 87 seems a little high for gods country in north Tacoma. 

[TacomaWx]

67 after a low of 59 here. Gonna be a nice couple days 0 clouds in sight anywhere. Was gonna just stay at home on my days off today and tomorrow but felt really guilty about it when I got up this morning and saw how nice it was outside so going camping tonight. 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’ll get there. The erosion of subsurface warmth has been rapid over the last 2 weeks as upwelling and easterly currents develop in response to the trade winds.

Have to consider the fluid inertia of the oceans. Takes a bit more time to get the response going, but it’s also harder to stop once it starts. And the speed of this response is indicative of a significant cooling to come.

Are you thinking this Nina peaks stronger than 2007-08 or 2010-11 right now?

[Phil]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Are you thinking this Nina peaks stronger than 2007-08 or 2010-11 right now?

That’ll hinge on what happens around the equinox, in Sep/Oct.

If the highly anomalous trades of Jul/Aug continue into the autumn as the ITCZ sinks southward and ASM trough influence wanes, then yes, I’d lean towards a bonafide strong La Niña. Especially since descending +QBO tends to warm/lower the tropical tropopause and stunt eastward MJO/WWB propagation.

But a more moderate event is also possible. Either way, La Niña should dominate the low frequency state. 

[Phil]

Believe me I’d love an El Niño or ENSO neutral winter. But there’s no way in hell that’s happening.  

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, Phil said:

Believe me I’d love an El Niño or ENSO neutral winter. But there’s no way in hell that’s happening.  

Maybe it happens 2023-24? Have a feeling we’re going to be getting the regionwide dud monkey off our backs that winter.

[Kayla]

It was a refreshingly cool 45 degrees here this morning. Really not looking forward to the torching this week but I suppose we're due for a heatwave. Pretty likely we see our first 90 of the year on Wednesday and possibly even mid 90's this weekend.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Maybe it happens 2023-24? Have a feeling we’re going to be getting the regionwide dud monkey off our backs that winter.

Could be. Or 2024/25? We’ll find out eventually.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the operational 12z GFs finally fell in line with the GEFS for the trough around day 7.

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

January 1972 was really epic for the South Sound up through North Seattle. 12-20" accumulations for most areas going into a prolonged Arctic airmass. 

Thanks, that’s probably it then. The encyclopedic knowledge of weather history shared by you and others on here is truly amazing and hugely appreciated.  

[T-Town]

54 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think we ought to max out at 83-85 the next 2 days. 87 seems a little high for gods country in north Tacoma. 

I thought 87 sounded a little high. I tend to think that Tacoma forecast is for JBLM rather than the north end. The Lord blesses us with a northerly breeze off the water to keep our temps more tolerable. 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Thanks, that’s probably it then. The encyclopedic knowledge of weather history shared by you and others on here is truly amazing and hugely appreciated.  

@BLI snowman is probably the best but @Doiinko seems to be learning pretty quickly. I have a lot of stats from my lifetime and weather events just memorized but not that far back. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I thought 87 sounded a little high. I tend to think that Tacoma forecast is for JBLM rather than the north end. The Lord blesses us with a northerly breeze off the water to keep our temps more tolerable. 

Yeah they probably run 4-6 degrees warmer than us on a day like today. One of my favorite things about here is the sea breeze we get during offshore flow in the summer. Winter time included during an arctic outbreak. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Maybe it happens 2023-24? Have a feeling we’re going to be getting the regionwide dud monkey off our backs that winter.

What if the regionwide dud was actually 2020-21, and PDX/SEA just got lucky for 3 days?

[GHweatherChris]

82° here.

79° at KHQM.

Edited July 11, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[T-Town]

32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

@BLI snowman is probably the best but @Doiinko seems to be learning pretty quickly. I have a lot of stats from my lifetime and weather events just memorized but not that far back. 

I only remember the month and year for the truly epic snow events I’ve experienced, and then the historic events that are discussed all the time. November 1985 is the first one I lived through where the date sticks in my mind. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF went the opposite direction as the GFS with the weekend trough... scoots it out faster.   Just a couple marine layer mornings and sunny afternoons this weekend on this run.   And next Monday and Tuesday are much warmer than its 00Z run.

[Phishy Wx]

suppose to be 93 tomorrow and would you know it the AC is not working right.  HVAC dude will be here on wednesday.  oof

 

and be in the 90s thru at least saturday

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z Euro says it might be awhile before we see any sub-80 highs again. At least no heatwaves in sight after today and tomorrow.

[TacomaWx]

25 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I only remember the month and year for the truly epic snow events I’ve experienced, and then the historic events that are discussed all the time. November 1985 is the first one I lived through where the date sticks in my mind. 

My grandpa talks about November 1985 a lot…he lives out in graham and he says that’s the probably the craziest stretch of winter he’s ever seen. For his location atleast (900’) February 2019 was pretty darn good too. 

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I only remember the month and year for the truly epic snow events I’ve experienced, and then the historic events that are discussed all the time. November 1985 is the first one I lived through where the date sticks in my mind. 

11/85 is the same way for me. It was a weenie crossing from which my ten year old, Goonies-loving a** couldn’t come back from.  

[Deweydog]

Burley!

[Omegaraptor]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

11/85 is the same way for me. It was a weenie crossing from which my ten year old, Goonies-loving a** couldn’t come back from.  

The winter that went down as legendary before it even began…

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Did some cleanup. Lost maybe a quarter of my braincells... Would have been better off chugging consecutive shots of drain cleaner and sniffing glue.

This is stuff I was guilty of yesterday, and I apologize. @TacomaWaWx called me out and he was right... It's driving potential members away, particularly the very civil, bright, valuable minds in the education and govt sectors of meteorology. Figures like Jay only show up so often and to lose someone with experience like that again would be quite sad.

What was that? The discussions about climate change.

 

[TacomaWx]

Beautiful day severe clear. Can even see mount baker from the top of the property 120 miles away this afternoon. 

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Burley!

EPS and control run looking similar... through day 11 so far.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS and control run looking similar... through day 11 so far.

That much vorticity dropping out of AK can be a little concerning for the #one90july cultists.

[RentonHill]

39 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Burley!

Polar Vortex getting an early start?