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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

58F in Seaside. Nice to beat the heat. Been beautiful so far. First time I’ve taken a vacation since May of 2021.

I have to stay at home a lot (even before COVID) because of my health so anytime I can have some sort of trip like this it’s an emotional experience. Hard to describe. I hope everyone is doing well tonight.

Glad to hear you are able to get away... sounds lovely.

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Low klouds over Kelso! (no Carl’s available)

D3869A6F-B2DC-43A1-825A-581E72E1D0F9.jpeg

Is that a gas station stop pic?

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is that a gas station stop pic?

Kinda. It was a daughter’s boyfriend’s car broke down and his parents are in Boise stop.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Glad to hear you are able to get away... sounds lovely.

It’s been wonderful. Yesterday when we arrived, we went to Mo’s and I had a chowder sourdough bowl while watching the best sunset I’ve ever seen. With the green sunlight as it passed from view behind the gigantic blue behemoth of earth.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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31271DD3-0E34-484C-B191-44FFF7C495BC.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Smoke models (which admittedly aren't the most accurate) are showing a decent chance of high smoke for July 13-14 over western Washington and parts of Western Oregon.  According to the model, much of British Columbia is already covered in smoke.  It is unlikely it will be low lying smoke, but be high aloft.  Some unobservant folk may not even notice.  Thankfully no significant smoke from any fires within the Pacific Northwest or California.  There is a statistically very low amount of wildfires in the US right now with more actually being out east than west right now.

Screen Shot 2022-07-12 at 11.40.44 PM.png

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ECMWF shows anomalously wet weather across much of Alaska over the next week and even some mountain snow.   Hopefully that helps with the fire situation.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-alaska-qpf_anom_7day-8296800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-alaska-snow_168hr-8296800.png

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3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Smoke models (which admittedly aren't the most accurate) are showing a decent chance of high smoke for July 13-14 over western Washington and parts of Western Oregon.  According to the model, much of British Columbia is already covered in smoke.  It is unlikely it will be low lying smoke, but be high aloft.  Some unobservant folk may not even notice.  Thankfully no significant smoke from any fires within the Pacific Northwest or California.  There is a statistically very low amount of wildfires in the US right now with more actually being out east than west right now.

Screen Shot 2022-07-12 at 11.40.44 PM.png

We deserve a break after multiple large urban areas were nearly destroyed in Sept 2020.

If the Holiday Farm Fire had started closer to Vida or so then we would’ve probly lost the house and the entire Washburne district.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Smoke models (which admittedly aren't the most accurate) are showing a decent chance of high smoke for July 13-14 over western Washington and parts of Western Oregon.  According to the model, much of British Columbia is already covered in smoke.  It is unlikely it will be low lying smoke, but be high aloft.  Some unobservant folk may not even notice.  Thankfully no significant smoke from any fires within the Pacific Northwest or California.  There is a statistically very low amount of wildfires in the US right now with more actually being out east than west right now.

Screen Shot 2022-07-12 at 11.40.44 PM.png

We posted almost simultaneously about Alaska.    The ECMWF shows a huge low up there next week and I had to check surface conditions.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8361600.png

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48 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

First time I’ve taken a vacation since May of 2021.... so anytime I can have some sort of trip like this it’s an emotional experience. Hard to describe. I hope everyone is doing well tonight.

I hope you continue to have an awesome time!  Very happy to hear you are enjoying coast!  :)  Cheers!  The Oregon coast is always my go-to place to go.  I absolutely love the small coastal towns.  Summer or any season, I love to go there.  I would love to live on the coast someday. 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We posted almost simultaneously about Alaska.    

 

^ I was just checking the weather up in Alaska as well as air quality stations as you posted. lol.  

For the most part, air quality stations are good all the way from Anchorage to about Sacramento.  Fairbanks has some poor  quality due to their proximity to the fires.  

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3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I hope you continue to have an awesome time!  Very happy to hear you are enjoying coast!  :)  Cheers!  The Oregon coast is always my go-to place to go.  I absolutely love the small coastal towns.  Summer or any season, I love to go there.  I would love to live on the coast someday. 

I’d miss the Oregon Coast if we move one day. But I’ve never seen the Indiana Dunes and people say they’re more impressive than one might think. More than anything, living there would be a near guarantee of getting a sub-freezing high most years.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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37 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’d miss the Oregon Coast if we move one day. But I’ve never seen the Indiana Dunes and people say they’re more impressive than one might think. More than anything, living there would be a near guarantee of getting a sub-freezing high most years.

Don't worry this will be Eugene next winter

Screenshot_20220712-065930.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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On 7/12/2022 at 9:36 AM, Timmy Supercell said:

Yup, winds were almost knocking the power out at the Bethany Meadows Apartments. (bumping/flickering)

Standing out on the deck was not a comfortable experience. The sky had the weirdest hue of purple as it happened around when the sun was rising.

Looking at the WRF GFS wind forecast during the Feb 2021 snow/ice storm, it shows an small area of much higher winds in the Bethany area, with gusts 35-45mph. It aligns with what you saw in Jan 2004 but to a smaller scale, probably winds downsloping off the West Hills. I guess it happens in certain situations, because during some events it doesn't show up as well. Sadly this model also showed me getting 12"+ but I only got 4.5" instead

image.thumb.png.4f32bf3d2d670721fa98305300eab0ac.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Looking at the WRF GFS wind forecast during the Feb 2021 snow/ice storm, it shows an small area of much higher winds in the Bethany area, with gusts 35-45mph. It aligns with what you saw in Jan 2004 but to a smaller scale, probably winds downsloping off the West Hills. I guess it happens in certain situations, because during some events it doesn't show up as well.

image.thumb.png.4f32bf3d2d670721fa98305300eab0ac.png

Another example during the second system during that event:

image.thumb.png.8ef3392a3f373dec0b7f1b960449ac82.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Apparently we can get low 60's in July, but it might as well be 70 because thats what it feels like.

Now already 72-73 at 9:30. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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High clouds clearing enough to see that low clouds are pretty sparse this morning except for a patch around Olympia.   Should be just a spectacular day with sun and temps in the 70s.

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Impressive 15 degree spread between Everett and SEA yesterday. SEA hit 85 while Everett only briefly touched 70.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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We hit 51. Looks like most spots made it well into the 50s.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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55 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Impressive 15 degree spread between Everett and SEA yesterday. SEA hit 85 while Everett only briefly touched 70.

Yeah, it will probably be warmer up here the next couple days than it was yesterday.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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19 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, it will probably be warmer up here the next couple days than it was yesterday.

How is your garden doing?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Pleasant 12z GFS run so far. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows anomalously wet weather across much of Alaska over the next week and even some mountain snow.   Hopefully that helps with the fire situation.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-alaska-qpf_anom_7day-8296800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-alaska-snow_168hr-8296800.png

This is where it all begins.. Winter is coming. 

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Instead of setting up the AC again for just couple days of heat, I set up couple of window fans instead this time around. Really did a nice job in cooling down the house too! It even got a bit chilly last night.  Might just do that the rest of the summer unless we start to reach 95+ 

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  • Longtimer

Score!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_50.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How is your garden doing?

Much better now! We ended up only losing 2 tomato plants from the heavy early June rainfall and everything else is exploding. The tomatoes were actually stressed enough that we've already gotten a couple ripe cherry tomatoes, something we normally wouldn't have until late July/early August.

I picked a cabbage yesterday that was only supposed to grow to 3 pounds, but ended up being 9 pounds. Also collected the first zucchini of the season. In traditional zuke fashion they had gone from a few inches long late last week to 18" by yesterday.

The orchard however looks like it will be abysmal this year. We only have about 1/4 the cherries as last year, and maybe 10-20% of the apples, plums, and pears as last year. Probably a combination of the relatively bad weather during spring bloom and this being an off year after an incredibly productive 2021.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Much better now! We ended up only losing 2 tomato plants from the heavy early June rainfall and everything else is exploding. The tomatoes were actually stressed enough that we've already gotten a couple ripe cherry tomatoes, something we normally wouldn't have until late July/early August.

I picked a cabbage yesterday that was only supposed to grow to 3 pounds, but ended up being 9 pounds. Also collected the first zucchini of the season. In traditional zuke fashion they had gone from a few inches long late last week to 18" by yesterday.

The orchard however looks like it will be abysmal this year. We only have about 1/4 the cherries as last year, and maybe 10-20% of the apples, plums, and pears as last year. Probably a combination of the relatively bad weather during spring bloom and this being an off year after an incredibly productive 2021.

9 pounds!   Amazing.

Our fruit trees seem to take years off as well... regardless of the weather.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Score!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_50.png

Big 'ol frontal system in July, very strange. Would love!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Almost to August on the GFS....average temperature peaks on July 31, yes? @Meatyorologist

 

gfs-deterministic-KBFI-daily_tmin_tmax-7713600.png

It peaks for a few days around then, yeah

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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82 F right now and high will be about 90 later. Lost power last night but otherwise nothing too interesting. Spouse's bday is today and she enjoyed the lightning show in the early hours but I slept through it. Apparantly Colfax /Palouse near us had a good sized hailstorm overnight but nothing here.

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Dang had some rather chatty ThunderBoomers overnight.  at ~1:30am we were awoken form a Grizzly bear like slumber by Thunder and lightning so loud it set the car alarm off on our Outback, power was knocked out for a couple minutes too, had another round around 2:30am and another around 6am.  not too much rain but did score and unexpected .23

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12Z GEFS through 300 hours shows what looks like goldilocks weather to me... similar to today.      The troughing offshore stays close enough to prevent any significant heat.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1657713600-1657713600-1658793600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Looking at the WRF GFS wind forecast during the Feb 2021 snow/ice storm, it shows an small area of much higher winds in the Bethany area, with gusts 35-45mph. It aligns with what you saw in Jan 2004 but to a smaller scale, probably winds downsloping off the West Hills. I guess it happens in certain situations, because during some events it doesn't show up as well. Sadly this model also showed me getting 12"+ but I only got 4.5" instead

image.thumb.png.4f32bf3d2d670721fa98305300eab0ac.png

That was a fun storm. I waited to about 2:30am to leave work during a break in the snow. I was lucky the 84 wasn't too icy unlike the bridges crossing the rivers. 

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

August 2 to be exact.

Average High and Low Temperature at King County International Airport

540629791_AverageHighandLowTemperatureatKingCountyInternationalAirport2x.thumb.png.f03861d9b9f5d1e89d9517f0adb4653f.png

 

And we typically begin to fall off of the cliff second half of Sept. 

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Seems the incessantly hot/dry Plains might be starting to take a toll on continental cool advection on LR guidance. 😕

Low soil moisture = more insolation goes into specific heating vs evaporation/latent heating. It’s why the Desert SW is so hot. Can turn into a vicious feedback loop.

On 12z Euro there’s a nice looking 500mb trough over the GL during week-2, but thermally it just gets eaten alive. A lot of people across the country could end up torching through the 2nd half of summer if something doesn’t change soon.

156278DC-5A4D-4A08-B5B6-B6B1F99C3117.gif

 

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1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

August 2 to be exact.

Average High and Low Temperature at King County International Airport

540629791_AverageHighandLowTemperatureatKingCountyInternationalAirport2x.thumb.png.f03861d9b9f5d1e89d9517f0adb4653f.png

 

Crazy your seasonal minimum is 2 days after the winter solstice. Even with the lagging Pacific Ocean next door.

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