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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


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3 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Close to San Diego's high of 72.

San Diego has a fairly constant temp year round, right?  Usually in the 60s-70s?  A lot of people say it's the perfect climate.  

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1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

San Diego has a fairly constant temp year round, right?  Usually in the 60s-70s?  A lot of people say it's the perfect climate.  

It is if you hate weather of any kind. 

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Just now, JBolin said:

It is if you hate weather of any kind. 

It's certainly not what I would want.  Waking up to sunshine every day, all the time would not be my thing. 

I like storms, rain, clouds, wind, etc.  So PNW is my happy home.

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  • Longtimer

Clear and cool morning with a low of 53 so far.

Looks like the models are picking up on another mini warm spell next week now. Probably getting pretty close to a lock that July ends up warmer than average.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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8 hours ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

I more than happy to be halfway thru July without triple digit temps!   We finally had some pretty active storms the last couple of weeks that dropped a total of 2.04" so far for the month, so hopefully that will push back the fire season a little....

I saw that Helena had a river coming right down main street earlier this month! Seems like every corner of Montana has seen at least some sort of flooding this year. 

How many triple digit temps do you typically see each year? I've never seen 100 at my house and Bozeman hasn't hit 100 since August 2018 and has only hit 100 seven times since 1893.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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51F here. 54F at KSEA

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

We hit 50 this morning. Right at average. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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14 hours ago, Kayla said:

Still looking for my first 90 of the year here. Thought we'd do it today but storms started firing before peak heating and we're still holding onto some decent soil moisture so we only hit 86F. Picked up a 0.10" with the storms and currently a rain cooled 66F.

Bozeman is pretty similar to the PNW lowlands...I too am looking forward to July 27th and the downward trend!

Average High and Low Temperature in Bozeman.png

Both Bozeman and PDX share the same max average high of 84 but you blow us away in the cold department. PDX min average temperature is 45/36 compared to Bozeman at 30/12🥶

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1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Both Bozeman and PDX share the same max average high of 84 but you blow us away in the cold department. PDX min average temperature is 45/36 compared to Bozeman at 30/12🥶

Even KLMT at its lowest averages 21 in January. And avg high is always above freezing. It's pretty easy to get mid-40's in middle of winter, whereas Bozeman I bet gets lots of days around 32.

Montana truly is old man Winter climate, they had particularly early snows in 2019 if I recall. I'm not used to it snowing in September anywhere I've lived. Or October for that matter.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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22 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

9 pounds!   Amazing.

Our fruit trees seem to take years off as well... regardless of the weather.  

No cherries or pears for me this year.  The trees were blooming when the April snow hit.  

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HVAC is fixed.  all is right in the world.  Just in time for what looks like an extended period of upper 80s/low 90s.  meat of the summer in these parts, that and I can keep the windows closed if/when Smoke season cranks up in August/Sept

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7 minutes ago, Chris said:

No cherries or pears for me this year.  The trees were blooming when the April snow hit.  

Apple trees took a hit here in May.  and barely bloomed very late in mid june.

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16 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

HVAC tech loaded in 4.725lbs of coolant into an 18 month old unit.  Something about a miscalculation on coolant when it was installed.  Gotta be a leak, some other dude is coming to test for a pinhole leak.  $1000 so far.  oof

That's total BS.  It never would have worked right if it was that low on charge, and if they installed it wrong it should be warranty.  It doesn't take long to hook up the gauges to measure.  Assuming you have 410 refrigerant, wholesale cost is $20/pound.  I'd bet on a leak on a fitting or at the coil, unless you've been pounding nails in the wall.

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1 minute ago, Chris said:

That's total BS.  It never would have worked right if it was that low on charge, and if they installed it wrong it should be warranty.  It doesn't take long to hook up the gauges to measure.  Assuming you have 410 refrigerant, wholesale cost is $20/pound.  I'd bet on a leak on a fitting or at the coil, unless you've been pounding nails in the wall.

I wish I knew more about this .  I think they forgot to put coolant in at install or there's a massive leak.  I have another vendor coming in behind the guy on Monday to check for leaks.  I think there's a leak too, FTR

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36 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I wish I knew more about this .  I think they forgot to put coolant in at install or there's a massive leak.  I have another vendor coming in behind the guy on Monday to check for leaks.  I think there's a leak too, FTR

Some of these HVAC companies are total crooks…part of the reason I left the one I was at. The company I worked for charged some poor guy 1500$ for me and our technician to come out and “fix” an issue which happened to be a faulty txv valve on an outdoor heat pump…which probably cost 100-250$ max for the part and all we did was re install and braise it on there probably took him 30-40 minutes to do. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Some of these HVAC companies are total crooks…part of the reason I left the one I was at. The company I worked for charged some poor guy 1500$ for me and our technician to come out and “fix” an issue which happened to be a faulty txv valve on an outdoor heat pump…which probably cost 100-250$ max for the part and all we did was re install and braise it on there probably took him 30-40 minutes to do. 

Yeah I'm suspicious.   I only had these guys out because their stickers are on the unit as the installer.  Of course they're never going to admit fault to me.  I'm not getting anywhere with the contractor either who used them for the home next door that's around the same age (18 months) and the owner told me no AC issues.  The unit passed all the pressure tests the City Code enforcement folks did when it was installed and has all that info plastered on it and on my electric circuit/fuse box in the garage.

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2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Even KLMT at its lowest averages 21 in January. And avg high is always above freezing. It's pretty easy to get mid-40's in middle of winter, whereas Bozeman I bet gets lots of days around 32.

Montana truly is old man Winter climate, they had particularly early snows in 2019 if I recall. I'm not used to it snowing in September anywhere I've lived. Or October for that matter.

Yeah it has snowed every September since I moved here in 2017. Bozeman actually averages over an inch of snow in September and almost 6" in October so early fall snow is quite normal along with late spring snow (May averages 4"). On average, the only months it doesn't snow is July/August. Of course you also have 1993 where town saw 2" of snowfall on August 24th.

You have to really enjoy the snow if you live here which I still do thankfully! 

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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13 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah it has snowed every September since I moved here in 2017. Bozeman actually averages over an inch of snow in September and almost 6" in October so early fall snow is quite normal along with late spring snow (May averages 4"). On average, the only months it doesn't snow is July/August. Of course you also have 1993 where town saw 2" of snowfall on August 24th.

You have to really enjoy the snow if you live here which I still do thankfully! 

More so than Minneapolis?

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11 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Oh right.  The second half of July will be cold and wet. 🙂

 

 

4DECE2FF-8B17-42F2-A100-918EC7C4112B.gif

A summer without huffing wildfire smoke will do you good. 😊

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10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

More so than Minneapolis?

Definitely... Minneapolis has never seen snow in June and it is extraordinarily rare in September.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

More so than Minneapolis?

Minneapolis doesn't normally see snow in May or September and averages 50" of snowfall compared to 91" in Bozeman. Not really any comparison.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Strange pattern on the 12Z ECMWF... good for putting out the fires in Alaska though.   

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8599200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yikes.

8E2FBB0C-1F56-438C-BC97-54AA6F53D814.png

Dislike! Although, the 12z models show a bit more NW flow and more 4CH suppression than earlier runs so maybe we'll be spared!

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Strange pattern on the 12Z ECMWF... good for putting out the fires in Alaska though.   

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8599200.png

They're just entering their wet season up there so pretty on par.

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

They're just entering their wet season up there so pretty on par.

True... but that is quite an anomalous trough up there.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... but that is quite an anomalous trough up there.  

Yeah, they were due.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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75 out here now...  not a cloud in the sky.

12Z EPS and control run look increasingly warm as we move through next week and beyond.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1657800000-1657800000-1659096000-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1657800000-1657800000-1659096000-10.gif

If this is the case, July will end up warmer than normal. I believe as of yesterday July's already running 0.2 warmer than normal. 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1657800000-1657800000-1659096000-10.gif

I thought it was going to get cooler after the 20th!? End of July is sure looking like it wants to torch right now!😈

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I thought it was going to get cooler after the 20th!? End of July is sure looking like it wants to torch right now!😈

Phil's timing might be off.     Or maybe the models are wrong.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Dislike! Although, the 12z models show a bit more NW flow and more 4CH suppression than earlier runs so maybe we'll be spared!

Yeah and I think that map is relative too.

IE: No “excessive heat” risk in Phoenix, when it’s obviously gonna be hot as hell there like always.

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51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1657800000-1657800000-1659096000-10.gif

I suspect there’ll be pretty substantial changes in the coming days. The MJO re-emerging over the IO isn’t a warm west signal. Guidance often over-emphasizes the westward extent of the 4CH in such cases, producing a warm result.

Seen this countless times before.

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This is what the EPS weeklies from 1 month ago were projecting for today, versus what actually happened. Cringe.

Have to account for known systemic biases (such as the overheating of the western high terrain) otherwise the information is useless for you.

 

E91FF7C1-2814-45DF-A2CB-3B7C7D157888.gif

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