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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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  1. 1. More original name title?

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Portland is actually wetter than Seattle on the 10-day precip map on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7584000.png

And looking a little sooner, pretty impressive totals forecast for those in the north central part of WA. Maybe an inch or so in some places there.

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6 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

And looking a little sooner, pretty impressive totals forecast for those in the north central part of WA. Maybe an inch or so in some places there.

It’s definitely important getting a lot of these fire prone areas a good soaking of rain. After this system moves through should keep any smoke storms at bay for atleast another few weeks…could still get some smoke from California but most of it in recent years has been BC. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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32 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Beautiful. The rocks in one of the shots look like a lava flow. I haven’t seen that west of the Cascades. 

Although just barely west of the Cascade crest there are quite a few lava flows/fields around Santiam Junction.

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8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Although just barely west of the Cascade crest there are quite a few lava flows/fields around Santiam Junction.

Your Sunriver pics have me thinking about a trip to central Oregon. It’s time. 

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Your Sunriver pics have me thinking about a trip to central Oregon. It’s time. 

I’m also thinking about going back towards the end of summer as well. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m also thinking about going back towards the end of summer as well. 

We last went in mid-October and it was awesome. 30 at night and 70 and sunny during the day. Stayed in a house near downtown Bend. Good times. 

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4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

We last went in mid-October and it was awesome. 30 at night and 70 and sunny during the day. Stayed in a house near downtown Bend. Good times. 

I went there in mid September last year. Went down to the ochoco mountains and the painted hills…then cut back west through bend up near mount bachelor. Stayed in that area for a couple days then went down south to crater lake. Probably going to try to go for 10 days this time instead of 7. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I went there in mid September last year. Went down to the ochoco mountains and the painted hills…then cut back west through bend up near mount bachelor. Stayed in that area for a couple days then went down south to crater lake. Probably going to try to go for 10 days this time instead of 7. 

Sounds awesome. 

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15 minutes ago, T-Town said:

We last went in mid-October and it was awesome. 30 at night and 70 and sunny during the day. Stayed in a house near downtown Bend. Good times. 

If you spend enough time east of the cascades you'll experience a day that hits 28 in the morning and 80 in the afternoon. 

I dunno if that happens in Bend a lot but K-Falls had one like that a handful of times. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer

Yeah there are some old basalt flows in the western cascades. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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22 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

If you spend enough time east of the cascades you'll experience a day that hits 28 in the morning and 80 in the afternoon. 

I dunno if that happens in Bend a lot but K-Falls had one like that a handful of times. 

We camped near K Falls in September many years ago. Maybe Collier SP. Frosty in the morning and 80 degree days. This is probably 35 years ago and still a great memory. 

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14 minutes ago, T-Town said:

We camped near K Falls in September many years ago. Maybe Collier SP. Frosty in the morning and 80 degree days. This is probably 35 years ago and still a great memory. 

September is probably the most consistent month in that area. On average, not a very smoky month either. 2020 and 2018 were just bad years for early Fall. 

Days on end of 80-85 and lows of 40-45, wall to wall sun. The larger spreads I've noticed tend to only happen in October. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the 00Z EPS is a little closer to the GFS at that same time.   It shows weak troughs in the same general area and a weak ridge in between.    

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7519200.png

There are several solution clusters, but most don’t look like the 00z GFS.

Should trend farther away from that with time.

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

My **** is in danger

Lmao. Bro you’ve gotta be 100% certain of the outcome before making a bet like that.

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32 minutes ago, T-Town said:

We camped near K Falls in September many years ago. Maybe Collier SP. Frosty in the morning and 80 degree days. This is probably 35 years ago and still a great memory. 

Collier is a great park. A lot of it burned during the Labor Day Fires unfortunately. But not all of it, and they are already replanting. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Collier is a great park. A lot of it burned during the Labor Day Fires unfortunately. But not all of it, and they are already replanting. 

Looks like most of the models show a decent swath of precip through central Oregon over the next couple days so maybe we won’t have as bad of a fire season this year. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Collier is a great park. A lot of it burned during the Labor Day Fires unfortunately. But not all of it, and they are already replanting. 

Yeah I saw that it’s closed for camping but the website says hopefully reopening this year. I think Collier was the place we stayed where they raked the campsites between visitors. Not sure if that was official policy or just some over enthusiastic campground hosts but not something I’ve seen elsewhere. 

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17 hours ago, Phil said:

@TT-SEA Those Charleston waters much be REALLY warm.

77649B8E-EE3D-4EDE-BA9B-6E2DFF9DD211.gif

Haha, that actually ended up turning into tropical storm Colin. Crazy what a little bath water can do.

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Things could get pretty crazy here tomorrow. SPC has us under a marginal risk this afternoon for severe storms but all eyes are on tomorrow with now an enhanced risk for damaging hail and wind gusts exceeding 75mph. ~2500 J/kg MLCAPE and K-index of 50 is definitely going to get the job done. 

As much as I love big storms, it's days like tomorrow that make me really nervous as a home owner.😬

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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12Z ECMWF shows clouds breaking up during the afternoon on Monday with a high the low 70s... and the evening looks clear now.    Probably no rain that day.

12Z ECMWF also looks less showery through the upcoming week... particularly compared to the 12Z run yesterday.   Every day is warmer than the 00Z run which warmer than the 12Z run.    

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

If you spend enough time east of the cascades you'll experience a day that hits 28 in the morning and 80 in the afternoon. 

I dunno if that happens in Bend a lot but K-Falls had one like that a handful of times. 

I had a 95/36 day last summer in Sunriver. Also had a freeze in July once but the high was only in the low 70s, a couple summers back. 

There is a slight but notable climate zone divide at Lava Butte Pass - to the north is quite a bit drier overall with dropping elevation going down to the Columbia River, while to the south is the high plateau which generally remains 4-5k elevation going south, generally wetter climate (enough to classify as just "continental" rather than semi-arid), and virtually identical climate extending southward a good distance into NE CA. And of course, insanely high diurnal ranges in summer.

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2 hours ago, T-Town said:

Your Sunriver pics have me thinking about a trip to central Oregon. It’s time. 

46BA16B5-DA20-4E7A-8620-DC07E3D2C6A4.thumb.gif.c5d7eaf947a0372765dff30af2535eb8.gif

From the Twin Lakes yesterday. Right off Cascade Lakes Highway (one of my favorite drives in Oregon). I wanted to drive the whole highway to the end see Crescent Lake but it doesn’t seem like they have kayak rentals there.

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Not a bad euro run…not torching some nice days and some rainfall chances. We will see what happens the next couple days sometimes there’s some surprises with these convective set ups. 

4835BA57-E15C-4A76-BC81-2BECD28EADC4.jpeg

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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59 and cloudy. Not sure if we will make it to 70 or not looks like a pretty cloudy day incoming. Can see some signs of convection development over Oregon. 

2139171893_G17_sector_pnw_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220702-14462.gif

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows clouds breaking up during the afternoon on Monday with a high the low 70s... and the evening looks clear now.    Probably no rain that day.

12Z ECMWF also looks less showery through the upcoming week... particularly compared to the 12Z run yesterday.   Every day is warmer than the 00Z run which warmer than the 12Z run.    

 

Fwiw I’m suspicious of how it drops that low straight south out of Alaska later in the run.

Little if any precedent for that in analogous circumstances. Looks like something is amiss there.

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

46BA16B5-DA20-4E7A-8620-DC07E3D2C6A4.thumb.gif.c5d7eaf947a0372765dff30af2535eb8.gif

From the Twin Lakes yesterday. Right off Cascade Lakes Highway (one of my favorite drives in Oregon). I wanted to drive the whole highway to the end see Crescent Lake but it doesn’t seem like they have kayak rentals there.

Nice. I booked a September trip to Bend this morning. 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s definitely important getting a lot of these fire prone areas a good soaking of rain. After this system moves through should keep any smoke storms at bay for atleast another few weeks…could still get some smoke from California but most of it in recent years has been BC. 

The official fire danger was still low when I was in Cle Elum last weekend.  Can't remember ever seeing it low this late in the season.  People are sure nervous after the last few years.  This year is a way different situation.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Fwiw I’m suspicious of how it drops that low straight south out of Alaska later in the run.

Little if any precedent for that in analogous circumstances. Looks like something is amiss there.

Not sure... control run looks similar though.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500-7540800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The official fire danger was still low when I was in Cle Elum last weekend.  Can't remember ever seeing it low this late in the season.  People are sure nervous after the last few years.  This year is a way different situation.

Yeah, all I’m saying is it just delays the fire season even further. Not saying we’re in a critical situation yet definitely in a much better spot than previous years. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

If you spend enough time east of the cascades you'll experience a day that hits 28 in the morning and 80 in the afternoon. 

I dunno if that happens in Bend a lot but K-Falls had one like that a handful of times. 

There are valleys in the Wenatchee Mountains that get hard frosts in August with day time temps still making it into the low 80s or so.  A guy that owned a store in Liberty in the 1980s told me he recorded a low of 24 in August one of the years I was over there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure... control run looks similar though.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500-7540800.png

Well I’m pretty sure.

EPS mean certainly looks more reasonable. Not many members look like the Operational/Control run. Probably an outlier.

277FA85B-E867-46B3-8D17-3D0F240B9C85.gif

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

image.gif.f0585a626be7ae23f4c7bdfe77342236.gif

 

I'm in the dark green!!!

Phil's in the yellow!!!

I’m not impressed with the setup here. Should be marginal risk.

Good chance I end up with nothing but lots of unrealized CAPE.

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well I’m pretty sure.

EPS mean certainly looks more reasonable. Not many members look like the Operational/Control run. Probably an outlier.

277FA85B-E867-46B3-8D17-3D0F240B9C85.gif

12Z EPS is just lovely.... 

103306950_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1656763200-1656763200-1658059200-10(1).gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

63 and cloudy. 
Had a low of 48! ⛄️ 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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67F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant day so far!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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38 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not impressed with the setup here. Should be marginal risk.

Good chance I end up with nothing but lots of unrealized CAPE.

Those guys have to do a map for the entire country.  Impossible for them to know every nuance of any given area.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

67F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant day so far!

How many 90+ days this year, and what was last year up to this point?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

63 and cloudy. 
Had a low of 48! ⛄️ 

I'm really impressed you managed 48 last night.  It only dropped to 56 here. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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  • Meatyorologist changed the title to On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

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