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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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  1. 1. More original name title?

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    • No
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    • Preferance Wars
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4 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Totally forgot to post a pic of the campsite area. Didn’t get very good shot but there’s 5 dugouts for 6-8 person tents and then we put up a few big wall tents on platforms that could hold 8-10 people if needed. C3183FB6-E48B-423A-9FF7-E80D7665A2D8.thumb.jpeg.0a66748fa586e846e0a3b50aa02593dd.jpeg
D41FD351-AF71-488F-9528-55D13128E642.thumb.jpeg.729c85c14ee0e57ea4e3e36430450ab7.jpeg

For anyone ballsy enough there’s a campsite in the lower orchard away from the house and shop. Nobody wanted it last weekend after we saw two bears and a cougar in the valley 🙃 24EC54ED-88D7-40C1-B390-62FA2C291085.thumb.jpeg.d5a4b1eeb4b17ce4fa06ba55ebf7102a.jpeg

And finally here is a picture of my son cheering me down the slip n slide that was too good not to share. It looks like it could be an ad for it or something.4FAABFA5-2EA1-4EC8-A640-D5A0918A24E2.thumb.jpeg.148d802ccd1de8d29fd011fdfda46150.jpeg/social media post

That slip n slide looks slick! 

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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Been away for a bit. What's the latest on the storm threat tomorrow?

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM.

All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific.

And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August.

Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? 😶

2344C44D-2AAE-4BC0-9167-A89B46AEA8DA.png

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  • Longtimer

Struggling to hit 60 today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

How many 90+ days this year, and what was last year up to this point?

3 so far and Springfield had 11 by this point last year. We're doing much better.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM.

All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific.

And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August.

Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? 😶

2344C44D-2AAE-4BC0-9167-A89B46AEA8DA.png

 

On 5/4/2022 at 1:38 PM, Kayla said:

I saw you mention a warm August is possible. A lot of the analog years for this summer point to a below average June with a warm July and a much below average August. What makes you think August will be the warm month?

That 1975 analog is still working out pretty well so far!

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

That 1975 analog is still working out pretty well so far!

Haha, well done. I might’ve fallen victim to recency bias in assuming late summer would be warm by default.

Gonna be an interesting case study either way.

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Some impressive storms firing up over the Central WA Cascades in the last couple hours.

  • Storm 1

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Some impressive storms firing up over the Central WA Cascades in the last couple hours.

Yeah looks very impressive on the radar. 

7C36D5DF-AA06-4C57-BA6C-9FE1B46A25B7.jpeg

  • Storm 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM.

All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific.

And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August.

Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? 😶

2344C44D-2AAE-4BC0-9167-A89B46AEA8DA.png

I'm pretty sure when I looked at that a few months ago we haven't had a cool August since 2001 or thereabouts.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Had some PM sub breaks and hit 65 today. Looks like most valley locations were low 70s. Cooler than any day in July last year.

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Had some PM sub breaks and hit 65 today. Looks like most valley locations were low 70s. Cooler than any day in July last year.

Yeah looked back at my records and the coldest day last July was 69/55. Just one sub 70 day last year and we should have 3 in a row by the 4th of this year. 

  • Rain 1

 

Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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Really hoping we can atleast get a decent thunderstorm west of the crest at some point tonight or tomorrow…even if it’s to the east of here aways would love some lightning photos. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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Saw a lot of lightning yesterday in Chennai, no rain though, with some impressive cloud to cloud and cloud to ground strikes. I guess the hot/humid weather is almost worth it for the thunderstorms. PNW summers would be amazing right now though, compared to heat index values of 118°

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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21 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Saw a lot of lightning yesterday in Chennai, no rain though, with some impressive cloud to cloud and cloud to ground strikes. I guess the hot/humid weather is almost worth it for the thunderstorms. PNW summers would be amazing right now though, compared to heat index values of 118°

Yeah I’ll stomach the oppressive swamp conditions if it means we get nailed by convection.

Problem is 75% of the time it misses and we’re left with truckloads of wasted CAPE.

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah I’ll stomach the oppressive swamp conditions if it means we get nailed by convection.

Problem is 75% of the time it misses and we’re left with truckloads of wasted CAPE.

image.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Amazing storm in Bend today. Over .5-.75” across a lot of town. Near quarter size hail, tons of CG, and even hail fog. Going on almost two hours of hearing thunder. 

7A5AF217-E7E7-49DA-9C82-B462E595E963.png

1582AB07-4444-4675-AB0F-57D6927F1EBD.jpeg

Awesome stuff man! I haven’t seen hail since 2020. :( 

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9 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Amazing storm in Bend today. Over .5-.75” across a lot of town. Near quarter size hail, tons of CG, and even hail fog. Going on almost two hours of hearing thunder. 

7A5AF217-E7E7-49DA-9C82-B462E595E963.png

1582AB07-4444-4675-AB0F-57D6927F1EBD.jpeg

Wow that’s awesome! Should really help put a dent in the drought over there in some areas! 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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  • Longtimer

Nice to see big storms in central Oregon. They had a lot of good ones in the mid to late 90s.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

This didn’t age well! 

B6E6AA47-9061-4A21-805D-527F1DCC7A8D.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Looks like some pretty big storms between Ashland and Medford in Southern Oregon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Two warned storms in southern Umatilla County in NE Oregon. Good news is these bad boyz look to be dropping quite a bit of rain. 

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  • Storm 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like some pretty big storms between Ashland and Medford in Southern Oregon. 

Biggest west coast rain total on Mesowest right now is actually at Montague-Siskiyou airport. 0.20” so far today.

Medford will probably overtake them in 3 seconds with this cell though

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78A487BE-CA0F-48D6-AAD2-FBC1B8F31CDA.png

Go off Medford!!

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  • Storm 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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C35A4D58-5E8C-4F9A-88B6-C2D88283A7B1.png

Hail spike and very prominent high echo core right over downtown. Might be the most severe thunderstorm in many years for Medford. Golf ball sized hail would not be a shocker.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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8 minutes ago, MWG said:

OMG it was crazy! Hail wasn’t that big but the rain pouring down! Still thunder going makes me think of back home in Puerto Rico.

 

Awesome! Glad you got all that rain, too.

  • Like 5

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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25 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Only 0.01"?

image.png.54b5dc49e541e92d8b34e8472838351f.png

Station is on the NW side of town. Barely got clipped by the storm I guess... 🤷‍♂️

  • Sad 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Meatyorologist changed the title to On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

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