On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am just going to trust you on this one.  

I’ve been wrong before, but I’d wager a hefty sum of money on this one.

QBO and the solar cycle are both perfect to maximize -ENSO as well. Also the -IOD. Everything lining up that way.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like Washington DC is running a -1.3 on the month. Out of 13 days so far only 4 have had highs of 90 or above.

[TT-SEA]

80F burger...

 

[Deweydog]

Perfect day to celebrate this Nick Cage classic!

Movie has a definite climate change feel to it. God’s nectar falling from the sky in buckets at the beginning of the movie, then after his years in prison he’s released to a dusty desert wasteland.

[Phil]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like Washington DC is running a -1.3 on the month.

Been wonderful so far. I’ve been longing for a NW flow summer for a loooong time. Lots of thunderstorms without the excessive heat.

Doesn’t look like it’ll last much longer, but we’re leaving town on 7/31 anyway, so a couple weeks of nasty weather is acceptable.

We don’t return until 8/21, so maybe the worst of the heat will strike while we’re away. Though I’m sure we’ll blowtorch through September as usual.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

As I’ve said for this upcoming regular season.

 

I think we’re in for a lot of fun for all of us. It will be memorable for a long time.

[Clancy MT DW9972]

9 hours ago, Kayla said:

I saw that Helena had a river coming right down main street earlier this month! Seems like every corner of Montana has seen at least some sort of flooding this year. 

How many triple digit temps do you typically see each year? I've never seen 100 at my house and Bozeman hasn't hit 100 since August 2018 and has only hit 100 seven times since 1893.

Helena got hammered that day!  I took a drive with my folks about an hour after the storm hit and the dirt, gravel and various sized rocks were all over the streets.  I heard about an inch of rain fell in about 30 to 45 minutes.  Last Saturday we got a very similar storm 10 miles south of town "Clancy " where I live.  0.91" fell in a half an hour and the runoff was amazing!  Thankfully we live in the foothills so no flood damage but the driveway was a river.  Helena sees triple digits about roughly 3 to 4 times a year,  I live at 4500 feet which is a good bit higher than Helena and I have seen 99 degrees officially according to my Vantage Pro 2, but the other less expensive thermometers around the house show anywhere from 100 to 110 degrees while under the eves on the north side of the house lol.  Note the 2 good sized water collection ponds in the photos, the one in the right pic is right below the driveway and was overflowing big time,  the second lower pond in the middle pic is to catch the overflow from the upper one.  Unfortunately the lower one suffered severe erosion due to water pouring in from everywhere else, but I will patch it up and all will be good until the next storm!  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies...

I'm thinking we get two more heatwaves before the end of August. Which will be easier to do now since we're getting to the hottest part of the year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fact is troughing in late July is statistically impossible here. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fact is troughing in late July is statistically impossible here. 

I present you with 7/27/2015... 500mb anomaly map.     In 2015 of all years.

 

[Deweydog]

18z is wrong.

[Phil]

45 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Out of 13 days so far only 4 have had highs of 90 or above.

FWIW, so far we’ve only had 11 days at/above 90°F this summer. Lowest number to-date since 2016.

Although 2016 flipped in mid-July and we ended up with 58. Kinda feels like this year might do something similar, as we’ll begin racking them up quickly next week.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I present you with 7/27/2015... 500mb anomaly map.     In 2015 of all years.

 

And no one but you has any memory of it. I remember it rained once in July 1996 I think. But once we get past 4th of July it's just not happening for about six weeks. Sorry Phil. 

[MossMan]

Amazing summer day! Dogs are enjoying it. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

18z is wrong.

 You don’t say. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And no one but you has any memory of it. I remember it rained once in July 1996 I think. But once we get past 4th of July it's just not happening for about six weeks. Sorry Phil. 

Bookmarking this.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And no one but you has any memory of it. I remember it rained once in July 1996 I think. But once we get past 4th of July it's just not happening for about six weeks. Sorry Phil. 

Matt remembers... and even mentioned it recently.

[TacomaWx]

I don’t remember the troughing in late 2015 so it didn’t happen

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Matt remembers... and even mentioned it recently.

I remember it for the fact we went to an outdoor wedding that weekend. They were really worried about the heat so they ended up spending a bunch of money on misters. Still had them running, which was funny.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I remember it for the fact we went to an outdoor wedding that weekend. They were really worried about the heat so they ended up spending a bunch of money on misters. Still had them running, which was funny.  

1.21 inches of rain in North Bend with that late July trough.  

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

18z is wrong.

#one110July?

[Deweydog]

Andrew isn’t wrong, though. If you’re ever gonna bet on a sure thing when it comes to dry weather, it doesn’t get any better (worse) than 7/20 to 8/10 or so.

[Deweydog]

Wrong as it may be, the 18z is drop dead gorgeous.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I remember it for the fact we went to an outdoor wedding that weekend. They were really worried about the heat so they ended up spending a bunch of money on misters. Still had them running, which was funny.  

Probably didn't rain down here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Andrew isn’t wrong, though. If you’re ever gonna bet on a sure thing when it comes to dry weather, it doesn’t get any better (worse) than 7/20 to 8/10 or so.

From 1892-2006 it never rained at SLE on July 12th. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE had 0.01" of precip with that July 2015 mega trough. A solidly chilly 74/52 on the 26th. 4 days later they hit 105 (I REMEMBER THIS). 

Edited July 14, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably didn't rain down here. 

Salem picked up one one-hundredth of an inch of liquid equivalent!

SCORE

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

The 3000-mile-wide ridge.

gross dude

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

From 1892-2006 it never rained at SLE on July 12th. 

There can be troughing without rain.   

[Deweydog]

That mid month trough in 1996 was a beast. Very dynamic pattern.

[Meatyorologist]

58 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

As I’ve said for this upcoming regular season.

 

I think we’re in for a lot of fun for all of us. It will be memorable for a long time.

I'm excitied for sure

[Meatyorologist]

The characteristics of troughing change towards mid summer. More mixing, drying, less saturation, less rain. Makes it less memorable but the temp anomalies don't necessarily lie.

[TacomaWx]

To be completely honest I don’t recall anything about the late July 2015 trough since it was 7 years ago and I was more concerned about high school BS at the time but we did record a 70/55 day with 0.13” of rain on 7/26. I do recall the big rain on 7/23/14 though 0.53” of rain that day with a 63/56 temp spread. Overall though yes it’s highly unlikely in any year to score meaningful precip that time of year. 

[Phil]

I’ve never seen a forecast like this for Oklahoma City before.

@SilverFallsAndrew prob knows more though.

[MossMan]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And no one but you has any memory of it. I remember it rained once in July 1996 I think. But once we get past 4th of July it's just not happening for about six weeks. Sorry Phil. 

I don’t have any pics of 7/27/15 but I have this one from the next day! Disclaimer…She put herself in the crate. 
And then a few days later. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve never seen a forecast like this for Oklahoma City before.

@SilverFallsAndrew prob knows more though.

For Oklahoma City, the highs look to be about 10-15 degrees above normal most days. July 23 is their hottest day of the year.

Average High and Low Temperature in Oklahoma City

[Phil]

San Antonio TX averages 3 days at/above 100°F every summer by this date.

So far in 2022 they’ve had 35! What the hell man.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve never seen a forecast like this for Oklahoma City before.

@SilverFallsAndrew prob knows more though.

Check out the summer of 2011. They had 64 100+ days. 

June: 11

July: 27

August: 21

September: 5

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

San Antonio TX averages 3 days at/above 100°F every summer.

So far in 2022 they’ve had 35! What the hell man.

Hmm, there's no way that that's accurate. Their 1980-present average is 16.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently packing my mittens for Dallas. But seriously if this pattern continues, and the soil moisture situation on the southern plains keeps deteriorating, we are going to see some 110-115 readings out of Oklahoma by early August, as we saw in 2011.