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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree with the initial conditions part for today.

But the water off the coast is not cold.    And probably won't make much of a difference.   

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

“Cool NW sea breeze” 😂

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  • Snow 1

 

Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Nothing measurable here overnight…got down to 54. 

Received 0.01... grass got a bit of watering at least. Starting to brown out. But this is also very late in the season so it's all good!

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Is there a link between 3 year Ninas and the frequency of nocturnal Thunderstorms in E WA?  we've had more storms this summer than in any other in the past 5 years.  I've only been here 5 years though, so not sure. 

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It is actually cold out there today.  No doubt SW wind onshore flow yields chillier weather than NW.  Winds are supposed to shift from SW to NW later today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Is there a link between 3 year Ninas and the frequency of nocturnal Thunderstorms in E WA?  we've had more storms this summer than in any other in the past 5 years.  I've only been here 5 years though, so not sure. 

My guess would be no for warm core storms, but cold core could very possibly be so.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree with the initial conditions part for today.

But the water off the coast is not cold.    And probably won't make much of a difference.   

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

It's falling and will be cold shortly though.  Perfect pattern for coastal upwelling.  That's why I posted the change map.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's falling and will be cold shortly though.  Perfect pattern for coastal upwelling.  That's why I posted the change map.

I doubt its creating a chillier NW wind today.    

And weak ULLs offshore is how the water got so warm and we will be right back to that later this week.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS shows a number of surges of marine air over the next 7 or 8 days.  Keeps putting off any potential for really warm weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I doubt its creating a chillier NW wind today.    

And weak ULLs offshore is how the water got so warm and we will be right back to that later this week.    

The surface pressure gradients are the real driver though.  The ULLs can kill the NW wind onshore flow, but most days are shown to have a pretty good NW gradient.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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1 hour ago, Randyc321 said:

Currently 56 and dripping wet from last nights showers.  Not that torchy.  Kinda nice start to the morning but some sun would be nice later.

 

I am not gonna b*tch about the coolish weather so far. I am enjoying it.  Covid prompted lockdowns and then a subsequent business closure drove an early retirement for me (57), so I am mostly outdoors during the day now.  The weather has been great.  I am currently refurbishing an old sailing yacht (not mine, side job) in Eagle Harbor on the island.  Best summer of my adult life so far.

Seems to me most people would prefer 75 over 56 in the summer, but that's just me and I will get some weenie reacts for that.

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8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Seems to me most people would prefer 75 over 56 in the summer, but that's just me and I will get some weenie reacts for that.

I personally would prefer a morning temp in the 40s/50s over 70s in the summer, we had a low temp of 75 during the heatwave last year and that wasn't fun.

I would agree that a high temp of 75 is nice though.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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3 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Practicing your AFDs?

Figured it would start better and more consistent weather conversations. So far it's worked, and it's fun to write!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Is there a link between 3 year Ninas and the frequency of nocturnal Thunderstorms in E WA?  we've had more storms this summer than in any other in the past 5 years.  I've only been here 5 years though, so not sure. 

My guess is that a more active storm track (-ENSO) combined with a roided 4CH (natural variability/agw/whatever) allows for maintained vorticity and moisture advection over the inland PNW. Eastern WA through NW WY is in that sweet spot.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree with the initial conditions part for today.

But the water off the coast is not cold.    And probably won't make much of a difference.   

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Yeah those offshore waters don’t affect weather much except right on the coast. It’s more a reflection of where the pattern has been as opposed to how it will behave.

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

My guess is that a more active storm track (-ENSO) combined with a roided 4CH (natural variability/agw/whatever) allows for maintained vorticity and moisture advection over the inland PNW. Eastern WA through NW WY is in that sweet spot.

It’s both. 4CH/Hadley Cells had already expanded markedly in the 19th/early 20th centuries (culminating in the dustbowl), then retracted in the 1950s/60s before resuming the widening trend in the late 1970s, up until today. Some of that additional expansion may be related to GHG forcing.

By contrast, the early 1800s had such a suppressed 4CH/Hadley Cell that the northern storm track often ran into San Diego with cold easterlies down to SoCal. Unheard of today.

The LIA was amazing.

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2 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Pretty cool hike up to Lake Serene the other day with the misty drizzly weather.  The view was taken away but still cool looking.  Felt like I was in the Amazon forest hiking…..crazy hardcore trail! 
I may attempt Comet Falls today on Rainer. 
 

Cloudy and 58* 

Pavement was wet earlier but nothing measurable 

 

A4FF88E8-5BF8-4C7C-AFB3-3C9A736EB26F.png

07F45313-A8A3-42AA-A695-A0F0423749CC.jpeg

4787DBD1-86BA-4296-90C0-52749DA44B75.jpeg

2DCC947A-528F-416F-8BD4-D0DEF5398AEC.jpeg

That last photo looks like North Bend!

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah those offshore waters don’t affect weather much except right on the coast. It’s more a reflection of where the pattern has been as opposed to how it will behave.

And on those Ag Weather videos... Eric keeps saying that the warm water off the PNW coast creates ridges.   It drives me crazy.    Its just a reflection of what has happened.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wonder if we will break out this afternoon after all. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the marine layer remain stubbornly in place again.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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I was wondering... How good are the areas just west of the West Hills (Cedar Mill, Bethany and those areas) in terms of radiational cooling? I would assume not that great because of the East winds.

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Somehow clouds actually keep you guys cool. Doesn’t seem to work that way here.

Haven’t seen the sun all day and it’s 92/77 right now. Might have to steal mossman’s puke emoji.

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  • Longtimer

Warm day in Texas. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And on those Ag Weather videos... Eric keeps saying that the warm water off the PNW coast creates ridges.   It drives me crazy.    Its jut a reflection of what has happened.

Yeah I saw that. That’s outdated thinking from the 1990s and 2000s. We now know it’s the pattern itself that modulates the eastern boundary current/upwelling within it.

In the tropics/deep subtropics it’s another story, of course.

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  • Longtimer

Noticed the ENSO 3.4 region has cooled to -0.6ZC. CFS seems a bit less bullish on Nina this week, but definitely shows us getting a weak Nina. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Noticed the ENSO 3.4 region has cooled to -0.6ZC. CFS seems a bit less bullish on Nina this week, but definitely shows us getting a weak Nina. 

Going to be a hefty La Niña this winter.

Westward moving +OLR/-VP200 low pass with descending +QBO and inclining solar cycle is the best possible setup to strengthen La Niña.

The CFS doesn’t even simulate a QBO. It’s such a dinosaur.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Going to be a hefty La Niña this winter.

Westward moving +OLR/-VP200 low pass with descending +QBO and inclining solar cycle is the best possible setup to strengthen La Niña.

The CFS doesn’t even simulate a QBO. It’s such a dinosaur.

I'm getting jazzed.

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm getting jazzed.

I’m desperate for a niño or even ENSO neutral winter. So believe me if there was any chance of that I’d be clinging to it. :lol: 

But, yeah, not a chance in hell to stop the niña train this winter. It’s a done deal. As set in stone as any ENSO evolution I’ve seen in my life.

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Lovin the 12z GFS.  A cool August is still on the table, but it might be hard to pull off.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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And the SW US and Plains are also in desperate need a bonafide El Niño. These expanded 4CH summers are (in large part) a result of La Niña (in addition to a couple ill-timed interdecadal cycles).

What would really help the country is a strong east based El Niño. Would not be great for winter here, but would probably wipe out the SW US drought and shake up the general circulation for years to come, as both 1997/98 and 1982/83 did.

Of course it could make things worse too, lol. The 1972/73 super niño pulled the system out of what was a fantastic general circulation regime, though it self-corrected somewhat in the late 1970s.

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51 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

It actually feels a little chilly with shorts and a t-shirt still at 11am. I understand people complaining about warm summers, but this will be the third cloudy/cool day in a row down here. Pretty good. 
 

Most comfortable summer we have had in a while down here. 

Absolute bliss to have this during the hottest part of the summer.

 

 

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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48 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Wonder if we will break out this afternoon after all. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the marine layer remain stubbornly in place again.

My guess is it will clear out.  The wind is supposed to shift to NW later today according to the GFS and ECMWF.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice nightmare of a Euro run 

For now I'm going to pretend the GFS is onto something.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice nightmare of a Euro run 

Traps a wavenumber 6-8 pattern like last June. 😬 But the way it gets there is so different I continue to believe it’s wrong. Along with the majority of guidance.

Not a single analog w/ CCKW departing the EPAC & E-Hem low pass that evolves into a heatwave pattern there. At least going back to the 1970s.

There are a few cases with a strong ridge just offshore but no bonafide heatwaves. And every analogous case except one flipped cool immediately thereafter. 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For now I'm going to pretend the GFS is onto something.

12Z GFS shows 99 degrees in Seattle next week.   Won't happen but if that is your dream run then its a good sign for some warm weather at least.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Can I get some puke emojis for the 12z ECMWF?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You seem to be good at that 

This summer has been fine so far.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows 99 degrees in Seattle next week.   Won't happen but if that is your dream run then its a good sign for some warm weather at least.

I was looking at the stuff later on.  Besides 99 means about 92.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Traps a wavenumber 6-8 pattern like last June. 😬 But the way it gets there is so different I continue to believe it’s wrong. Along with the majority of guidance.

Not a single analog w/ CCKW departing the EPAC & E-Hem low pass that evolves into a heatwave pattern there. At least going back to the 1970s.

There are a few cases with a strong ridge just offshore but no bonafide heatwaves. And every analogous case except one flipped cool immediately thereafter. 

Could easily be a case of brief heat followed by retrogression.

  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was looking at the stuff later on.  Besides 99 means about 92.

Of course.    And that is your dream run.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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