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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


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57F and cloudy/misty at 1 p.m. in mid July. Not something you see all the time although we'll probably pop up into the mid 60s by the end of the day.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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I think Jesse has lost it.  Not sure how he thinks this summer has been terrible so far.  Granted I didn't like some of June, but heat wise it's been quite good so far.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12z EPS has -PNA, weak NW trough, and 850s near normal for early August.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

My guess is that a more active storm track (-ENSO) combined with a roided 4CH (natural variability/agw/whatever) allows for maintained vorticity and moisture advection over the inland PNW. Eastern WA through NW WY is in that sweet spot.

probably, cause we seem to be right on the periphery of that where I sit just west of the ID border.

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2 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

It actually feels a little chilly with shorts and a t-shirt still at 11am. I understand people complaining about warm summers, but this will be the third cloudy/cool day in a row down here. Pretty good. 
 

Most comfortable summer we have had in a while down here. 

I’ve enjoyed it so far. Past the halfway point and obviously it’s different up here but only 3 hot days so far this year. Of course the euro at face value is probably 3-4 +90 days here later this month which sucks but just gotta enjoy the comfy weather like today while it’s here. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Going to be a hefty La Niña this winter.

Westward moving +OLR/-VP200 low pass with descending +QBO and inclining solar cycle is the best possible setup to strengthen La Niña.

The CFS doesn’t even simulate a QBO. It’s such a dinosaur.

Larry Cosgrove continues to be against it for some reason.I guess my question is.Is he just being different just to be different or is he really seeing something that many do not.Strange that a great old school promet like Larry would be this far off the mark seeing wise 🤔

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Stellar day!

Much too cold. We have hit the 60 mark though so it’s a start! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Noone said anything about a dream run and Jesse hasn't been complaining about this summer.  

I was just wondering why he posted a laugh emoji when I said this summer has been fine from a heat perspective.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Much too cold. We have hit the 60 mark though so it’s a start! 

This pattern has really been cold for your area.  That cold blast coming down the strait every day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Larry Cosgrove continues to be against it for some reason.I guess my question is.Is he just being different just to be different or is he really seeing something that many do not.Strange that a great old school promet like Larry would be this far off the mark seeing wise 🤔

No way he is going to be right IMO.  There is absolutely no historical precedent for a Nino to come out of thin air this late.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

108 now. 45 days since it last rained at DFW.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

67 and partly cloudy very nice day. 

Give today to the ECMWF.  The 12z GFS was spitting out an absurd 80.  There is no way it would have gotten that warm regardless. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

108 now. 45 days since it last rained at DFW.

Seems extremely dry for there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Traps a wavenumber 6-8 pattern like last June. 😬 But the way it gets there is so different I continue to believe it’s wrong. Along with the majority of guidance.

Not a single analog w/ CCKW departing the EPAC & E-Hem low pass that evolves into a heatwave pattern there. At least going back to the 1970s.

There are a few cases with a strong ridge just offshore but no bonafide heatwaves. And every analogous case except one flipped cool immediately thereafter. 

It's almost as if, brace yourself, our summer climate has fundamentally changed in recent years. Torching is inevetable. Analogs don't work anymore.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

109 now 

D7747E9B-89CE-4DFC-ADC8-060903E2C029.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No way he is going to be right IMO.  There is absolutely no historical precedent for a Nino to come out of thin air this late.

I remembered back in the day Jim when Dave Tolleris and Larry Cosgrove got into it all the time those two could never agree on much of anything.I tend to agree with you but I still find it interesting that Cosgrove sees it so differently wish And I'm sure many knew what exackly it is that he seeing.

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Trust me, I hope to god I am wrong, and that Phil's Kold August of the Century© verifies brilliantly.

But intuition and recent summer climo have proved different. In recent years -ENSO would mean a genuinely chilly summer. Now it doesn't matter... It feels like there are feedback loops present now that weren't there before which precede -ENSO climo and promote incessant ridging, no matter what.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Give today to the ECMWF.  The 12z GFS was spitting out an absurd 80.  There is no way it would have gotten that warm regardless. 

If the day starts out socked in during the morning... the GFS will usually be wrong during the summer.    It overestimates mixing.    If the day starts out sunny... the GFS will usually be closer than the ECMWF which seems to assume the water of the Puget Sound is much colder than reality.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Anyways, it's running much cooler than I expected today. Clouds are much more stubborn. Sometimes ridging aloft can prevent sufficient mixing for marine layer erosion.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's almost as if, brace yourself, our summer climate has fundamentally changed in recent years. Torching is inevetable. Analogs don't work anymore.

You’d have to show that the pattern would somehow respond differently now to the same stimuli than it did even a few years ago.

I don’t see any reason that would be the case.

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45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

108 now. 45 days since it last rained at DFW.

Now that’s Tim weather.

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Full sun and 69 here right now.  Incredibly pleasant day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Anyways, it's running much cooler than I expected today. Clouds are much more stubborn. Sometimes ridging aloft can prevent sufficient mixing for marine layer erosion.

ECMWF has insisted for several days that the clearing would take place around 3 or 4 p.m. today in the Seattle area.   My son is going out with friends on the boat this evening and has been pestering for precise timing since about Friday.     He texted me at noon telling me it was not going to happen and I was wrong and I said it will be totally different by 4.    And it is.  😃

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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31 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’d have to show that the pattern would somehow respond differently now to the same stimuli than it did even a few years ago.

I don’t see any reason that would be the case.

For us I think it's nothing more than the 4CH has been more dominant in recent years.  I have a feeling that's a cyclical thing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For us I think it's nothing more than the 4CH has been more dominant in recent years.  I have a feeling that's a cyclical thing.

In that case, the drought erupting across the southern plains won’t help with the 4CH situation.

2019 was the last summer with a weak 4CH. Might need a niño to change things up again.

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  • Longtimer
12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has insisted for several days that the clearing would take place around 3 or 4 p.m. today in the Seattle area.   My son is going out with friends on the boat this evening and has been pestering for precise timing since about Friday.     He texted me at noon telling me it was not going to happen and I was wrong and I said it will be totally different by 4.    And it is.  😃

image.gif

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

image.gif

All the credit goes to the ECMWF cloud maps... hard to beat.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

It’s coming!
Oh and the In-Laws just arrived from Arizona to break in the brand new RV parking spot I added. Oh and I’m buying a new (18yr old) to me jetski later this week, that should seal the deal for a hot rest of the summer!! 

060C1B7E-9435-42AE-8DC0-7C16AEB3290D.jpeg

785EF1EB-0216-4C43-BA47-EEAF8E224A33.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer

Well... IBR Chris thinks we'll see 100-105 to close out June. He's riding the hideous 12z EPS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... IBR Chris thinks we'll see 100-105 to close out June. He's riding the hideous 12z EPS. 

That’s a gutsy call for 11 months out.

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... IBR Chris thinks we'll see 100-105 to close out June. He's riding the hideous 12z EPS. 

At least that’s almost an entire year away. 

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  • Longtimer

July

  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

32 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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