On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[weatherfan2012]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No way he is going to be right IMO.  There is absolutely no historical precedent for a Nino to come out of thin air this late.

I remembered back in the day Jim when Dave Tolleris and Larry Cosgrove got into it all the time those two could never agree on much of anything.I tend to agree with you but I still find it interesting that Cosgrove sees it so differently wish And I'm sure many knew what exackly it is that he seeing.

[Meatyorologist]

Trust me, I hope to god I am wrong, and that Phil's Kold August of the Century© verifies brilliantly.

But intuition and recent summer climo have proved different. In recent years -ENSO would mean a genuinely chilly summer. Now it doesn't matter... It feels like there are feedback loops present now that weren't there before which precede -ENSO climo and promote incessant ridging, no matter what.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Give today to the ECMWF.  The 12z GFS was spitting out an absurd 80.  There is no way it would have gotten that warm regardless. 

If the day starts out socked in during the morning... the GFS will usually be wrong during the summer.    It overestimates mixing.    If the day starts out sunny... the GFS will usually be closer than the ECMWF which seems to assume the water of the Puget Sound is much colder than reality.  

[Meatyorologist]

Anyways, it's running much cooler than I expected today. Clouds are much more stubborn. Sometimes ridging aloft can prevent sufficient mixing for marine layer erosion.

[Guest administrator]

Nice day.

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, administrator said:

Nice day.

I know that place.

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's almost as if, brace yourself, our summer climate has fundamentally changed in recent years. Torching is inevetable. Analogs don't work anymore.

You’d have to show that the pattern would somehow respond differently now to the same stimuli than it did even a few years ago.

I don’t see any reason that would be the case.

[Phil]

Oh death.

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phil]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

108 now. 45 days since it last rained at DFW.

Now that’s Tim weather.

[snow_wizard]

Full sun and 69 here right now.  Incredibly pleasant day.

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Anyways, it's running much cooler than I expected today. Clouds are much more stubborn. Sometimes ridging aloft can prevent sufficient mixing for marine layer erosion.

ECMWF has insisted for several days that the clearing would take place around 3 or 4 p.m. today in the Seattle area.   My son is going out with friends on the boat this evening and has been pestering for precise timing since about Friday.     He texted me at noon telling me it was not going to happen and I was wrong and I said it will be totally different by 4.    And it is.  

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’d have to show that the pattern would somehow respond differently now to the same stimuli than it did even a few years ago.

I don’t see any reason that would be the case.

For us I think it's nothing more than the 4CH has been more dominant in recent years.  I have a feeling that's a cyclical thing.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For us I think it's nothing more than the 4CH has been more dominant in recent years.  I have a feeling that's a cyclical thing.

In that case, the drought erupting across the southern plains won’t help with the 4CH situation.

2019 was the last summer with a weak 4CH. Might need a niño to change things up again.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has insisted for several days that the clearing would take place around 3 or 4 p.m. today in the Seattle area.   My son is going out with friends on the boat this evening and has been pestering for precise timing since about Friday.     He texted me at noon telling me it was not going to happen and I was wrong and I said it will be totally different by 4.    And it is.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

All the credit goes to the ECMWF cloud maps... hard to beat.

[Phil]

Ridiculous.

 

[T-Town]

Looks pretty nice in T Town for the next week or so.  Beyond that looks kinda warm but hopefully we can keep the temp and duration within reason. 

[MossMan]

It’s coming!
Oh and the In-Laws just arrived from Arizona to break in the brand new RV parking spot I added. Oh and I’m buying a new (18yr old) to me jetski later this week, that should seal the deal for a hot rest of the summer!! 

[Deweydog]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ridiculous.

 

Been there done that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well... IBR Chris thinks we'll see 100-105 to close out June. He's riding the hideous 12z EPS. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... IBR Chris thinks we'll see 100-105 to close out June. He's riding the hideous 12z EPS. 

That’s a gutsy call for 11 months out.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... IBR Chris thinks we'll see 100-105 to close out June. He's riding the hideous 12z EPS. 

At least that’s almost an entire year away. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

July

[BLI snowman]

Late June is always awful so easy call.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful Poulsbo... perfect out here.  

[Meatyorologist]

Nice evening. 72F now.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has insisted for several days that the clearing would take place around 3 or 4 p.m. today in the Seattle area.   My son is going out with friends on the boat this evening and has been pestering for precise timing since about Friday.     He texted me at noon telling me it was not going to happen and I was wrong and I said it will be totally different by 4.    And it is.  

Conventionally I've found that timing is usually brought back by a bit, and mixing usually occurs earlier than forecast. Sometimes it goes the other way, like today and Saturday. Euro verified well indeed.

[GobBluth]

48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... IBR Chris thinks we'll see 100-105 to close out June. He's riding the hideous 12z EPS. 

NBM peaks in the mid 90s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was laying down by the pool in the 109 degree heat. Probably caused me to confuse June with July. 

[NWbyNW]

Some hot temperatures are starting to appear on Everett's long range forecasts.  Over a week out, but still, never like seeing that.  A few 80s. The PNW is a cool spot in a country that is hot.

[TacomaWx]

71/54 today. Very pleasant. Todays our 12th consecutive dry day here…probably no more rainfall this month so hopefully something in august after the likely heat. 

[Phil]

Wow.

 

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Some hot temperatures are starting to appear on Everett's long range forecasts.  Over a week out, but still, never like seeing that.  A few 80s. The PNW is a cool spot in a country that is hot.

The northern PNW for sure. Comparing the northern and southern PNW is kind of like comparing northern and southern France. Particularly in the summer, they are basically two completely different regions.

[NWbyNW]

GFS vs. EURO!

So here are forecast maps showing the PEAK predicted heat for Wednesday the 27th, 2022.  We will see who is more accurate.  GFS or EURO.  

 

[T-Town]

Yard is looking summery. 

[GHweatherChris]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just wondering why he posted a laugh emoji when I said this summer has been fine from a heat perspective.

Emojis mean nothing.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Yard is looking summery. 

You can kinda see Anderson island and where my family’s property is from there very nice view you got. 

[MV_snow]

For those of you like me who enjoy sunny and cool weather in the summer, Victoria by the water would be tough to beat. It’s supposed to be highs in upper 60s to low 70s with full sun at our campsite on the Saanich Peninsula the remainder of the week.

For some reason marine layer formation seems difficult here. At home, we have the Chehalis Gap to thank for the low clouds, but what stops low clouds from forming on southern VI? Seems like they would just come in through the Strait since nothing is blocking them.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

For those of you like me who enjoy sunny and cool weather in the summer, Victoria by the water would be tough to beat. It’s supposed to be highs in upper 60s to low 70s with full sun at our campsite on the Saanich Peninsula the remainder of the week.

For some reason marine layer formation seems difficult here. At home, we have the Chehalis Gap to thank for the low clouds, but what stops low clouds from forming on southern VI? Seems like they would just come in through the Strait since nothing is blocking them.

The significant mountain ranges to the south and west probably have something to do with it.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The significant mountain ranges to the south and west probably have something to do with it.

They are totally open from the West.

[snow_wizard]

Incredible 72/54 day here today.  Tonight will be crisp with the clear skies.

[bainbridgekid]

Julio putting on a show in LA. 63 homers in the first two rounds and he’s onto the finals. Feels like a superstar’s coming out party.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

For those of you like me who enjoy sunny and cool weather in the summer, Victoria by the water would be tough to beat. It’s supposed to be highs in upper 60s to low 70s with full sun at our campsite on the Saanich Peninsula the remainder of the week.

For some reason marine layer formation seems difficult here. At home, we have the Chehalis Gap to thank for the low clouds, but what stops low clouds from forming on southern VI? Seems like they would just come in through the Strait since nothing is blocking them.

The south end of Vancouver Island gets extreme inversions due to how cold the Strait of Juan de Fuca is.  No low clouds needed to keep that going when within a few miles of the water.  It might the wind that prevents low clouds from forming as easily.

[MV_snow]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They are totally open from the West.

Yeah, that’s what I don’t get. Do marine layers travel SW to NE or something? Could see them being blocked by the Olympics in that case, but what about straight west?

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Julio putting on a show in LA. 63 homers in the first two rounds and he’s onto the finals. Feels like a superstar’s coming out party.

Yeah. Pretty fun. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

For those of you like me who enjoy sunny and cool weather in the summer, Victoria by the water would be tough to beat. It’s supposed to be highs in upper 60s to low 70s with full sun at our campsite on the Saanich Peninsula the remainder of the week.

For some reason marine layer formation seems difficult here. At home, we have the Chehalis Gap to thank for the low clouds, but what stops low clouds from forming on southern VI? Seems like they would just come in through the Strait since nothing is blocking them.

Poulsbo/Bainbridge is similar in terms of clearing out quickly even during troughing and staying pleasant.

[T-Town]

42 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You can kinda see Anderson island and where my family’s property is from there very nice view you got. 

Thanks!  Yeah we can see the ferry terminal. 

[Meatyorologist]

Nome setting long standing records with this mammoth trough, not even sitting in its center.

Not to sound like Bastardi but this is kind of an equal and opposite phenomena to the European heat wave right now. Fleeting, though, and I'm sure there will be plenty more unanswered all time record heat waves all across the globe to come...