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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nome setting long standing records with this mammoth trough, not even sitting in its center.

Not to sound like Bastardi but this is kind of an equal and opposite phenomena to the European heat wave right now. Fleeting, though, and I'm sure there will be plenty more unanswered all time record heat waves all across the globe to come...

And of course for added perspective, Nome was still running 3 degrees above average through yesterday on the month. So it's hardly been consistently frigid up there so far.

Impressive 46/34 day there today, however.

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  • Longtimer
30 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Julio hit the 2nd most homers ever in a derby. A superstar was born today and he’s just 21 years old.

Just tired himself out hitting too many homers the first two rounds and missed the bonus 30 seconds he needed to beat Soto in the finale.

Julio should have quit swinging in the second round when he already won the round, that hurt him for the final.

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Seeing this on a 528hr ensemble mean is pretty remarkable.

Looks like @TT-SEA will have his dreams fulfilled in MN.

D066D7C1-67E0-4B6C-9595-D593C6002538.png

We will be gone by then.

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  • Longtimer
18 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What was January 1930 like in the Puget Sound? At Hillsboro, the avg temp was 25.3 with 24.2" of snow. That would be amazing to experience, Hillsboro dropped to -14 degrees! And 15 subfreezing highs in a row at Hillsboro and 19 in a row in Downtown.

NW OR and SW WA were a lot colder and snowier with that. More of a gorge component with the cold air that month and a lot of jet suppression. The big snowstorms on the 15th and 18th largely missed the Puget Sound region to the south.

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really surprising more people don't like that combo.

I would venture to guess that mid 70s and sunshine would be considered ideal summer weather for fairly large percentage of the population.    And that is considered cool weather for summer for most of the country.     

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

NW OR and SW WA were a lot colder and snowier with that. More of a gorge component with the cold air that month and a lot of jet suppression. The big snowstorms on the 15th and 18th largely missed the Puget Sound region to the south.

Downtown Portland seems to have had less snow than Hillsboro, which also was the case with Jan 1950 and PDX had a decent bit more than Downtown in 1968-69. It just seems that Downtown Portland gets a lot less than the rest of the metro area a lot. My area doesn't benefit from cold air damming but in 1968-69 my area had over a foot more than Downtown Portland, and PDX had like 8" more. Is there a reason that Downtown Portland seems to not do as well a lot of the time?

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will be gone by then.

I mean it’s basically the same before that too.

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would venture to guess that mid 70s and sunshine would be considered ideal summer weather for fairly large percentage of the population.    And that is considered cool weather for summer for most of the country.     

There's those people who set their thermostat to 68 or lower during the summer, so I imagine mid 60s would be ideal outdoor weather for them. Imagine how much electricity that wastes in a hot climate.

Then there's some people who set their thermostats higher in the winter than the summer. Do they like to be inside in shorts and T-shirts during the winter and sweaters and jeans in the summer?

Finally there's this ridiculous advice:

Quote

As a rule of thumb, sleep psychologist Michelle Drerup, PsyD, says to keep your bedroom at 60 to 67° F (15 to 19° C) and to think of your bedroom as your ‘cave.’ “It should be cool, dark and quiet to enhance your sleep.”

 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Downtown Portland seems to have had less snow than Hillsboro, which also was the case with Jan 1950 and PDX had a decent bit more than Downtown in 1968-69. It just seems that Downtown Portland gets a lot less than the rest of the metro area a lot. My area doesn't benefit from cold air damming but in 1968-69 my area had over a foot more than Downtown Portland, and PDX had like 8" more. Is there a reason that Downtown Portland seems to not do as well a lot of the time?

Elevation. Both of Portland's official measuring stations have always been below 50' ASL. So not great proxies for the suburban areas which are mostly >200' elevation. A couple hundred feet can easily make a difference. UHI also impacts their temps of course but doesn't really make a meaningful difference with snow totals, which are overwhelmingly dependent on the profile of the air column.

 

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I mean it’s basically the same before that too.

Doesn't look too bad for the next week.   Today was hot for sure... and I doubt it sunny right now since its after 11 p.m. but looks decent enough going forward.

 

nisswa.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Elevation. Both of Portland's official measuring stations have always been below 50' ASL. So not great proxies for the suburban areas which are mostly >200' elevation. A couple hundred feet can easily make a difference. UHI also impacts their temps of course but doesn't really make a meaningful difference with snow totals, which are overwhelmingly dependent on the profile of the air column.

 

Oh that makes sense. It's interesting to see the variation of snow totals around the metro area, for example the old Hillsboro COOP station is only ~8 miles away and the airport is only ~5 miles away but in 1968-69 Hillsboro had around 26" of snow while the Bethany COOP station had 39". I'm also pretty sure my area while only being 5 miles away from the airport is a much worse radiational cooling spot.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Soto ftw! DC beats Seattle. 💪 

Enjoy him while you can because he’s already got 2 feet almost out the door already. Pretty evident when he turned down the richest contract. 

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Oh that makes sense. It's interesting to see the variation of snow totals around the metro area, for example the old Hillsboro COOP station is only ~8 miles away and the airport is only ~5 miles away but in 1968-69 Hillsboro had around 26" of snow while the Bethany COOP station had 39". I'm also pretty sure my area while only being 5 miles away from the airport is a much worse radiational cooling spot.

I wouldn't take the Hillsboro snow numbers at face value. Their data set is choppy at best and full of missing and/or inaccurate snow data, particularly by the 1960s. A lot of the old COOP stations have been pretty terrible at recording snow, unfortunately.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I wouldn't take the Hillsboro snow numbers at face value. Their data set is choppy at best and full of missing and/or inaccurate snow data, particularly by the 1960s. A lot of the old COOP stations have been pretty terrible at recording snow, unfortunately.

Oh okay, that's unfortunate but makes sense. Some of them also have unclear location data, like the Portland Elk-Point station only is located in Elk Point from 1969-1972, while it's locked in Bethany from 1967-1969 and I don't know where it's located from 1957-58.

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Another GFS run showing 100 degrees next week.   Crisp in a different way.

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Day 6 and 7 on this model shows no 100s in Seattle or Portland.  Not sure what is beyond that.  Day 7 also shows eastern Tennessee and and part of Virginia ceasing to exist.  ndfd_sfctmax6.conus.thumb.png.2dbd1d82f69089f5e580b6c8dd820c1d.pngndfd_sfctmax7.conus.thumb.png.d09d06ea4e552a54959bc4f853e00894.png

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3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Day 6 and 7 on this model shows no 100s in Seattle or Portland.  Not sure what is beyond that.  Day 7 also shows eastern Tennessee and and part of Virginia ceasing to exist.  ndfd_sfctmax6.conus.thumb.png.2dbd1d82f69089f5e580b6c8dd820c1d.pngndfd_sfctmax7.conus.thumb.png.d09d06ea4e552a54959bc4f853e00894.png

I was hoping we could avoid more 90s in Portland but that doesn't seem likely.

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36 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I'm getting worried. 

The 500mb progs don't match the ridiculous surface temp numbers the GFS is spitting out.  A lot of robust onshore flow days in there too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Doiinko said:

I was hoping we could avoid more 90s but that doesn't seem likely.

Sorry to see that.  If you don't like heat, Portland seems like it isn't the place to live anymore.  It seems like the heat moves further north over time. It's not good.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The 500mb progs don't match the ridiculous surface temp numbers the GFS is spitting out.  A lot of robust onshore flow days in there too.

You always know how to calm us alarmists down. ;D  I'm not sure what your track-record is on all this, but I accept the calming effect you have on these readings. :D 

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The GFS must be smoking the really good stuff tonight.  86 tomorrow?  Yeah right.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, NWbyNW said:

You always know how to calm us alarmists down. ;D  I'm not sure what your track-record is on all this, but I accept the calming effect you have on these readings. :D 

I think there will be some warm to modestly hot days mixed in over the next couple of weeks, but nothing that bad IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

There's those people who set their thermostat to 68 or lower during the summer, so I imagine mid 60s would be ideal outdoor weather for them. Imagine how much electricity that wastes in a hot climate.

Then there's some people who set their thermostats higher in the winter than the summer. Do they like to be inside in shorts and T-shirts during the winter and sweaters and jeans in the summer?

Finally there's this ridiculous advice:

 

Those temps are spot on for me.  If it's above 68 I don't sleep nearly as well as when its below.  We have our thermostat set to 64 during sleep hours at night in the winter.  For the summer, now that we have A/C, we run the A/C at 70, then shut it off when the outside temp=inside temp, then we turn it off and crank up the whole house fan.  I'm about to go to sleep, and the temp is 67 inside.  Perfect.

We except for at night, we pretty much keep the thermostat set to 70.

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3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Sorry to see that.  If you don't like heat, Portland seems like it isn't the place to live anymore.  It seems like the heat moves further north over time. It's not good.

It seems like Portland can hit 90 without even trying these days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS must be smoking the really good stuff tonight.  86 tomorrow?  Yeah right.

EPS show 78... which means around 81.  

Side note... even the EPS showed highs into the low 90s next week on the 12Z run.   It almost never shows temps that warm at that range.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS must be smoking the really good stuff tonight.  86 tomorrow?  Yeah right.

Pretty different from its ensemble mean at 500mb as well.

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One thing for sure is it's going to be VERY dry for the foreseeable future.  Massive surface high complex dominates the NE Pacific.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Pretty different from its ensemble mean at 500mb as well.

I just saw that.  Ridge axis remains well to our NW pretty consistently.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty different from its ensemble mean at 500mb as well.

The GEFS is obviously muted... but the warm signal is in the same spot as the operational run.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8966400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8966400.png

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GEFS at day 10.  Onshore flow and very dry.

1659052800-0XXy3BNFWks.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Should be pushing 100 there early next week.  

There's a couple of days in there it could happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

GEFS at day 10.  Onshore flow and very dry.

1659052800-0XXy3BNFWks.png

And its probably going to be in the 90s with that weak onshore flow.  

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  • Longtimer
23 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Shows a long stretch of 90s for Portland, and even 101 on one dayimage.thumb.png.a05e519037fefe74d00456891ce35cb7.png

Looks like a perfect temp up in my area! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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At this point the models hint at a PNA drop by early August.  The warmest stuff may peak this month.  I would almost be willing to pay for a cool August just because we haven't had one for 20 years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Operational GFS definitely warmer than its ensemble mean.

Also a HUGE outlier over the Plains.

E8F3A8C7-0DF2-47B0-8FB7-7E5DB5F554F4.gif

Could the GFS actually be wrong? 😮

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point the models hint at a PNA drop by early August.  The warmest stuff may peak this month.  I would almost be willing to pay for a cool August just because we haven't had one for 20 years.

In August 1968 looks like we pulled off 72/40 days and 84/41 days with no precip in my area. My area isn't that urbanized either, a pattern like that would be nice now. 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Could the GFS actually be wrong? 😮

00Z ECMWF shows 102 in Portland one week from tomorrow... with its cool bias.

GFS only shows a pedestrian 97 there that day.   

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF shows 102 in Portland one week from tomorrow... with its cool bias.

GFS only shows a pedestrian 97 there that day.   

If that verified we'd probably get closer to 105 or so. I thought we could manage to go this summer without an extreme heatwave but maybe not.

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From a statistical standpoint wouldn’t surprise me if it ended up being close to the July 2006 heatwave. I know Jim’s trying to downplay it but it’s looking pretty hot. Factoring in the cool bias on the euro that’s 3 +90s showing up on tonight’s run. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Shows a long stretch of 90s for Portland, and even 101 on one dayimage.thumb.png.a05e519037fefe74d00456891ce35cb7.png

Watershed weekend at The Gorge near that 112. Please god no.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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