On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Deweydog]

25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There hasn't been anything really approaching last June from a winter weather perspective since probably January 1950. So it's not even remotely equitable. 

Nothing in modern recorded history has approached last June. It rewrote the book and truly changed our climate identity. 

[Phil]

There are a couple of outrageous EPS members, as in literally a repeat of June 2021. Let’s hope those are wrong.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hint of a retrogression signal on the 12z EPS.

Hopefully we can build on this.

A frigid August to remember? 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

WB! You got out of South HIll? 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nothing in modern recorded history has approached last June. It rewrote the book and truly changed our climate identity. 

Right, so I'm not sure that some decadal cold in the NW part of the region last winter is as much of a balancing act as your post seemed to imply.

The extremes are, have been, and will continue to be overwhelmingly on one side of the spectrum. It is what it is. And with that, the goalposts will continue to move and our sense of what even constitutes "extreme" will continue to be skewed ever  upwards. 

Edited July 19, 2022 by BLI snowman

[GHweatherChris]

Temps are overachieving out this way today.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nothing in modern recorded history has approached last June. It rewrote the book and truly changed our climate identity. 

Pretty much similar to what's going on in the UK right now. 

[James Jones]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nothing in modern recorded history has approached last June. It rewrote the book and truly changed our climate identity. 

The setup is somewhat different but a July 2009 type of outcome seems like a decent bet. Long duration heat event with a few days in the mid 100s.

[TacomaWx]

We’ve got a serious problem if we manage to hit 100 degrees here in back to back summers. Euro would get us there and probably 5 days above 90 degrees. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Right, so I'm not sure that some decadal cold in the NW part of the region last winter is as much of a balancing act as your post seemed to imply.

The extremes are, have been, and will continue to be overwhelmingly on one side of the spectrum. It is what it is. And with that, the goalposts will continue to move and our sense of what even constitutes "extreme" will continue to be skewed ever  upwards. 

Sure, everything is relative. We’re living in a warming world and that isn’t likely to change in the long term.

But if Omak can score a 2/-2 day in the same month they hit the mid 70’s, I’ll unapologetically find that quite interesting and enjoyable.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, James Jones said:

The setup is somewhat different but a July 2009 type of outcome seems like a decent bet. Long duration heat event with a few days in the mid 100s.

Right about the same time too. I’m fully expecting 1 or 2 days here to hit 100 even right near the Puget sound. I thought we would be waiting another 10 years for something like July 2009 or June 2021 level to occur but I guess not. Hopefully something changes here in the next couple days on the models. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, James Jones said:

The setup is somewhat different but a July 2009 type of outcome seems like a decent bet. Long duration heat event with a few days in the mid 100s.

I was kind of thinking the same thing.

Despite all the heat the last decade of summers, July ‘09 still holds the record for consecutive 90+ days at PDX, with ten.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, James Jones said:

The setup is somewhat different but a July 2009 type of outcome seems like a decent bet. Long duration heat event with a few days in the mid 100s.

Does have some hints of it in the wave train with the kind of wintry amplified look. 

[TT-SEA]

My phone forecast usually updates at noon and reflects the latest ECMWF run.   Not today.   Refuses to bite on extreme heat.   Wish this was going to be the reality.   

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I wonder if the region’s vegetation will be able to handle another widespread scorching event a second year in a row. Feels like a nightmare.

feels like fire/smoke season is about to explode onto the scene here shortly. oof

[Cascadia_Wx]

It’s pretty crazy we are going to see another hot summer this year. I really though this one would at least be 1991-2020 average, with the “late” (historically normal) start, wet June and very Niña esque April-Jun.

Seems like ENSO forcing hasn’t been quite right for a few years now though.  Similar type of thing with Feb/March 2019.

[Phil]

55 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not sure where to go from here. Hoping the EPS is at least a notch or two more reasonable. If not might just need a break.

Misery loves company. Believe me, I can empathize.

[Phishy Wx]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

There are a couple of outrageous EPS members, as in literally a repeat of June 2021. Let’s hope those are wrong.  

one thing in our favor is sun angles are slightly less than they were during the heatwave last june.  not much but some

[Phil]

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

one thing in our favor is sun angles are slightly less than they were during the heatwave last june.  not much but some

That’s not going to be a huge factor at this point. Doesn’t really make a dent in anything until mid-August 

[James Jones]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was kind of thinking the same thing.

Despite all the heat the last decade of summers, July ‘09 still holds the record for consecutive 90+ days at PDX, with ten.

And the record for consecutive 100+ was all the way back in 1941. Really hoping we don't match that one.

I'm hoping the cool and wet spring will help the vegetation, though if mega heatwaves start to become a near annual occurrence it could get ugly. 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s not going to be a huge factor at this point. Doesn’t really make a dent in anything until mid-August 

This heatwave might end up being worse just based on it being longer duration. Might not hit those 6/28/21 temps but it could be worse having close to that heat for a longer time. 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s not going to be a huge factor at this point. Doesn’t really make a dent in anything until mid-August 

I guess I was thinking last year was literally right after the equinox.  but yeah you're right 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Checks the forecast:

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Gonna be mid-70s already at 5am on the 29th?  That's icky dude. It's gonna be quite a duration of 90s. 

[James Jones]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s pretty crazy we are going to see another hot summer this year. I really though this one would at least be 1991-2020 average, with the “late” (historically normal) start, wet June and very Niña esque April-Jun.

Seems like ENSO forcing hasn’t been quite right for a few years now though.  Similar type of thing with Feb/March 2019.

I've seen some mets on twitter and other forums talk about how ENSO forcing and other teleconnections aren't producing traditional outcomes as reliably as they used to. No idea if that's confirmation bias or what, but you're definitely not the only one to make that observation. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Gonna be mid-70s already at 5am on the 29th?  That's icky dude. It's gonna be quite a duration of 90s. 

Don’t forget about the Puget sound cool bias…probably add 3 to 5 degrees to that. Pretty sure we hit 100 atleast once or twice. 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This heatwave might end up being worse just based on it being longer duration. Might not hit those 6/28/21 temps but it could be worse having close to that heat for a longer time. 

My AC didn't make a lick of difference w/ the 108 stuff. It was only tolerable during the night. 

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s pretty crazy we are going to see another hot summer this year. I really though this one would at least be 1991-2020 average, with the “late” (historically normal) start, wet June and very Niña esque April-Jun.

Seems like ENSO forcing hasn’t been quite right for a few years now though.  Similar type of thing with Feb/March 2019.

ENSO seems to mean less and less these days, for better and (usually) for worse.

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I guess I was thinking last year was literally right after the equinox.  but yeah you're right 

This is just for Seattle alone but compared to the 28th of last June vs. this upcoming heatwave... you're still looking at 15+ hours of daylight. 

15h56m on June 28 vs 15h06m on July 28. 

50 minutes more of nighttime isn't going to put a dent in anything. And sun angles during this time of year is moot. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My phone forecast usually updates at noon and reflects the latest ECMWF run.   Not today.   Refuses to bite on extreme heat.   Wish this was going to be the reality.   

Same for me. Still showing 93/97/95/95 the last 4 days.

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

My AC didn't make a lick of difference w/ the 108 stuff. It was only tolerable during the night. 

mine didn't here either at 113 last year, house was in the mid 80s.  but apparently had a coolant leak and just got that fixed and recharged so I'm interested to see what happens this time around. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA is doing its slow west wind climb today... only 74 there while it's 79 in North Bend.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I've seen some mets on twitter and other forums talk about how ENSO forcing and other teleconnections aren't producing traditional outcomes as reliably as they used to. No idea if that's confirmation bias or what, but you're definitely not the only one to make that observation. 

More like recency bias. “ENSO teleconnections” are extremely state dependent. Look father back and you’ll find plenty of cases where patterns did not match the canonical ENSO response as viewed through a late 20th/early 21st century lens.

[TacomaWx]

Well atleast todays nice…74 and sunny. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

mine didn't here either at 113 last year, house was in the mid 80s.  but apparently had a coolant leak and just got that fixed and recharged so I'm interested to see what happens this time around. 

My Geothermal system works amazingly well…However if something goes seriously wrong with it, it will be most likely more expensive to fix it than putting in a heat pump so that will be in our future I’m sure…Hopefully many years from now though. 
Pic from June of 2021, it was like walking into a Costco cooler with the difference between outside and inside! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

53 minutes ago, Cloud said:

WB! You got out of South HIll? 

Thxs! I live in Fed/ Des Moines now with my gf

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS. The operational and control are on the extreme side but it’s also a little scary to see them in good agreement this far out.

[Cascadia_Wx]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

More like recency bias. “ENSO teleconnections” are extremely state dependent. Look father back and you’ll find plenty of cases where patterns did not match the canonical ENSO response as viewed through a late 20th/early 21st century lens.

So a cool last half of July still on the table?

[TacomaWx]

Well I guess we should start up a heatwave forecast contest ffs. Here’s my way too early prediction hopefully we do not end up this bad here in Tacoma. 
7/25-92/64

7/26-98/68

7/27-99/68

7/28-100/69

7/29-95/66

[Omegaraptor]

Currently 84 at Aurora so I’d imagine it’s the same here in Lake Oswego. On break right now and already getting pretty toasty for hard outdoor work but luckily my work days end at 3 and I’m basically done with any strenuous outdoor stuff by 2.

[Cloud]

Heathrow airport reached 101F at 1pm local time Tuesday and homes in UK are burning. 

Can't really convince me heat isn't more destructive than cold. 

[Eujunga]

24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS. The operational and control are on the extreme side but it’s also a little scary to see them in good agreement this far out.

Haven't seen anyone threaten genital self-mutilation yet, so I guess that means this is a lock to verify?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just went for a walk. 

[Eujunga]

One the potential vegetation damage issue, had a couple of possible mitigating thoughts: 1) Down here at least, soil moisture is in better shape than it was going into the June 2021 event; 2) New growth has had a bit more time to harden off.

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just went for a walk. 

D**n. Is that 18G36 wind helping at all? Even just a little?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

D**n. Is that 18G36 wind helping at all? Even just a little?

Kind of feels like standing in front of a giant furnace. It is definitely a dry heat though. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kind of feels like standing in front of a giant furnace. It is definitely a dry heat though. 

Are your kids excited to come to more 100 degree heat?

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Right, so I'm not sure that some decadal cold in the NW part of the region last winter is as much of a balancing act as your post seemed to imply.

The extremes are, have been, and will continue to be overwhelmingly on one side of the spectrum. It is what it is. And with that, the goalposts will continue to move and our sense of what even constitutes "extreme" will continue to be skewed ever  upwards. 

Saw a Tweet last week that a city in Australia had set a new all time low temperature record. 

It was the only all time cold record in the world for this year, to go along with 140 (before the European heatwave) all time record High temps. So 140 to 1 currently for all time Heat versus all time cold this year.