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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


The Blob

More original name title?  

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38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It probably will stay pretty close to what we've been seeing.  We have the ridge axis well offshore most of the time.

What will happen when that ridge finally comes over us?  Will it be a heat wave of doom? Is it likely to go over us?

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9 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

What will happen when that ridge finally comes over us?  Will it be a heat wave of doom? Is it likely to go over us?

With the Nina reenergizing the mean ridge position should stay over the GOA, but a brief venture eastward could easily happen late summer.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Same I’m off Monday and Tuesday’s! Have had quite a few nice Monday’s and Tuesday’s recently. 

That was my first weekend schedule at my first job!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Looking at some historical months/winters, what's with Downtown Portland having lower totals than some other locations in a lot of them? They're not that high at about the same elevation as PDX.

For example: 

January 1950:

    Hillsboro: 42.4"

    Downtown: 32.9"

    PDX: 41.4"

    Troutdale: 36.7"

January 1930:

     Hillsboro: 24.2"

    Downtown: 16.4"

1968-1969:

     Hillsboro: 26.6"

    Downtown: 25.7"

    PDX: 34.0"

    My location: 39.0"

Hillsboro isn't usually a snowy location I think but they did better comparatively compared to Downtown in a lot of them. It makes me wonder how much other areas in Portland that usually did better had in months like January 1890 or 1916

    

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Looking at some historical months/winters, what's with Downtown Portland having lower totals than some other locations in a lot of them? They're not that high at about the same elevation as PDX.

For example: 

January 1950:

    Hillsboro: 42.4"

    Downtown: 32.9"

    PDX: 41.4"

    Troutdale: 36.7"

January 1930:

     Hillsboro: 24.2"

    Downtown: 16.4"

1968-1969:

     Hillsboro: 26.6"

    Downtown: 25.7"

    PDX: 34.0"

    My location: 39.0"

Hillsboro isn't usually a snowy location I think but they did better comparatively compared to Downtown in a lot of them. It makes me wonder how much other areas in Portland that usually did better had in months like January 1890 or 1916

    

Looks like Downtown did outperform Hillsboro in 1936-37 though, 34.4" vs 29.0". Unrelated but Salem had 25.2" in one day that winter!

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Ended up with a 74/60 day yesterday. Stayed a little cloudier and cooler than expected. Although lows have remained on the mild side.Mostly cloudy and 58 this morning.

Despite not being as extreme as some recent years this summer has pretty much fallen in line with post-2013 expectations so far, with the potential for lots of heat on the near horizon. Things seemed pretty lined up for a cooler one too, so it’s pretty remarkable we won’t be able to pull one off even with a very favorable atmospheric state.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 74/60 day yesterday. Stayed a little cloudier and cooler than expected. Although lows have remained on the mild side.Mostly cloudy and 58 this morning.

Despite not being as extreme as some recent years this summer has pretty much fallen in line with post-2013 expectations so far, with the potential for lots of heat on the near horizon. Things seemed pretty lined up for a cooler one too, so it’s pretty remarkable we won’t be able to pull one off even with a very favorable atmospheric state.

It was remarkably cool the first half of June, to be fair.

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS was abysmal for today.  Forecast high of 82 for SEA on the 12z and it ended up at 71.  When are they going to fix that terrible warm bias on summer temps?

The temp in my house tonight is 68 with nothing, but a couple of fans bringing in air from outside.  Blissful for July.

GFS warm bias is worse than the EPS cool bias but only one of them gets attention on here. 🤔 

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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It does particularly bad on days when the marine layer first comes in like today.   On most of the other summer days it ends up closer than the also abysmal ECMWF.

I’ve been watching both models’ performance closely this month so you’re not pulling any fast ones on me.

The GFS is warm biased almost every f**king day. And I guarantee the mean error is larger on the GFS than the Euro. Median is probably close, though.

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38 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 74/60 day yesterday. Stayed a little cloudier and cooler than expected. Although lows have remained on the mild side.Mostly cloudy and 58 this morning.

Despite not being as extreme as some recent years this summer has pretty much fallen in line with post-2013 expectations so far, with the potential for lots of heat on the near horizon. Things seemed pretty lined up for a cooler one too, so it’s pretty remarkable we won’t be able to pull one off even with a very favorable atmospheric state.

Bookmarking this.

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41 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been watching both models’ performance closely this month so you’re not pulling any fast ones on me.

The GFS is warm biased almost every f**king day. And I guarantee the mean error is larger on the GFS than the Euro. Median is probably close, though.

GFS is too warm almost every day... totally agree.   And the ECMWF is too cold almost every day.    But there are many days when the GFS is too warm by a degree or two less than the ECMWF is too cold.    It is pretty funny that neither are ever correct.   Like almost never and always in the same direction for both.     

On sunny days with weak onshore flow like we had last week and have coming up again this week... the GFS output for SEA actually works pretty well for the Snoqualmie Valley since it usually 3-4 degrees warmer out here than at SEA.   But on marine layer days... the ECMWF for SEA usually works well out here.   

Lots of variables... but the model errors are in the same direction and I know they types days that favor each one so its not hard to figure out where the actual highs will end up.   And also remember that the GFS can run way too cold as well.   A couple days ago Meaty pointed out a low of 50 this morning based on the GFS but it looks like the actual low was 58 at SEA which is what the ECMWF was showing.   On numerous runs the GFS showed a high in the mid to upper 50s on the 4th of July... actual high was 72.

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31 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS warm bias is worse than the EPS cool bias but only one of them gets attention on here. 🤔 

EPS is slightly better than the ECMWF.   And the GFS/GEFS warm bias gets plenty of attention too.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Right before there's going to be a t'storm and you hear someone starting their lawn mower.. 

80 and overcast. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Right before there's going to be a t'storm and you hear someone starting their lawn mower.. 

80 and overcast. ;)

Mowed in a thunderstorm yesterday. It’s refreshing!

Approaching 9” of rain on the month already. The swamp air is starting to fester now, will probably have 80+ dewpoints this week. Always inevitable. 😕

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Just now, Phil said:

Mowed in a thunderstorm yesterday. It’s refreshing!

Approaching 9” of rain on the month already. The swamp air is starting to fester now, will probably have 80+ dewpoints this week. 😕

Gawd 9 inches? It sounded like you ran most of this year drier than eastern KY, and now its coming down in buckets. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Gawd 9 inches? It sounded like you ran most of this year drier than eastern KY, and now its coming down in buckets. ;)

Yeah it gets really f**king tropical here Jul-Sep thanks to our proximity to the water. August is by far the worst month for humidity.

Same reason we’re cooler in May/June. A dry Jul-Sep requires a big ridge/blowtorch pattern so obviously this is preferable.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

More death. :( 

 

 

Forecast shows 102 degrees in London on Tuesday.      That would be an all time record there.

Paris forecast shows 104 degrees that day.

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Hello upwelling wave. 👋

More anomalously strong trades in the pipeline too. Including another potentially record breaking surge towards the end of the month into August.

C77F97EB-9244-4EB7-BD0B-B55DED799809.gif

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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 74/60 day yesterday. Stayed a little cloudier and cooler than expected. Although lows have remained on the mild side.Mostly cloudy and 58 this morning.

Despite not being as extreme as some recent years this summer has pretty much fallen in line with post-2013 expectations so far, with the potential for lots of heat on the near horizon. Things seemed pretty lined up for a cooler one too, so it’s pretty remarkable we won’t be able to pull one off even with a very favorable atmospheric state.

Absolutely agree. I've heard so many people acting like this summer has been cool, when in the pre-2013 climate state it would have been considered very warm. Overall it is going to end up solidly above average for most of us and most likely warmer than 2019 and 2020. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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36 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

It was more remarkably wet than remarkably cool. You don’t see a strong AR in June every year.

Yes, you are absolutely right. There were some days with chilly high temperatures in June, but lows were quite mild overall with the persistent cloudiness. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hello upwelling wave. 👋

More anomalously strong trades in the pipeline too. Including another potentially record breaking surge towards the end of the month into August.

C77F97EB-9244-4EB7-BD0B-B55DED799809.gif

Check out the stable low-pass and increasing depth of the 20°C isotherm in the west-central Pacific.

Big La Niña on the way.

2E9C6B4C-4C91-4EF5-94C4-FBFB0749D208.gif

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hello upwelling wave. 👋

More anomalously strong trades in the pipeline too. Including another potentially record breaking surge towards the end of the month into August.

C77F97EB-9244-4EB7-BD0B-B55DED799809.gif

You nailed it.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Check out the stable low-pass and increasing depth of the 20°C isotherm in the west-central Pacific.

Big La Niña on the way.

2E9C6B4C-4C91-4EF5-94C4-FBFB0749D208.gif

That's great to hear. I'm thinking fall may arrive in mid-September this year too. I'll be heading over to Bend in late September, would be great to see some colors on the pass on the way over. When I went over there in early October 2019 it was snowing on Santiam Pass. That was about as cold a fall as we can have, I think wet is a better bet this year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's great to hear. I'm thinking fall may arrive in mid-September this year too. I'll be heading over to Bend in late September, would be great to see some colors on the pass on the way over. When I went over there in early October 2019 it was snowing on Santiam Pass. That was about as cold a fall as we can have, I think wet is a better bet this year. 

Didn't we see arctic air intrude into the region like 4 times that fall? Late September, Early-Mid October, Late October, and kind of Late November? And we saw the event in March 2020. 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Check out the stable low-pass and increasing depth of the 20°C isotherm in the west-central Pacific.

Big La Niña on the way.

2E9C6B4C-4C91-4EF5-94C4-FBFB0749D208.gif

I know this is extremely early, but do you have any thoughts on when our best window for winter weather is? If you think it'll be more frontloaded or backloaded. Sorry if this is way too early for an idea about that lol

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Low of 54 this morning. We finished June -0.1 and we’re -0.6 for July currently. Probably gonna finish this month within a degree of average too. Certainly hasn’t been a cool summer considering we’re also on 1991-2020 averages too…but it hasn’t been bad at all. Barely any wildfires in the PNW so far and drought concerns we’re pretty mitigated by the last couple months. Even has some rain to start the month. 

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9 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

I see you got some quality company there with ya. :)

What are the heron's preferences?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Okay, yeah the GFS is clearly digging that GOA trough too far back by D5. Clear as day.

12Z GFS on top and 06Z EPS at the end of the run at the same time.    Pretty minor differences.   

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8556000 (1).png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8556000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It’s exactly the type of error that will render its downstream solution completely useless.

It’s times like this the GFS does more harm than good for the multi-model consensus. 

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