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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


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57 here this morning…thank god it sounds like the euro backed off there. Still not happy about the prospects of a streak of 90s but it’s certainly better than hitting 100 like last summer. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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  • Longtimer

Clear and 59 here this morning. Ended up topping out at 89 yesterday so at least no 90.

I get up at 5 on work days and can definitely tell the sunrise has been getting later. It’s really noticeable this morning, the sun isn’t even above the foothills out there yet. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

57 here this morning…thank god it sounds like the euro backed off there. Still not happy about the prospects of a streak of 90s but it’s certainly better than hitting 100 like last summer. 

EPS took a step back from the extreme heat too. Nice to see, let’s hope it sticks. 

9ECFACDE-1D83-4DBA-92DC-82C059B1F6BB.png

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer

56 this morning. Back home.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 hours ago, Deweydog said:

The more muted thermal gradient allows the thermal trough to take on more of a negative tilt, usually tracking with the 500mb ridge axis. This makes access to offshore flow increasingly easy as you head north from around Tillamook. Even then, it’s a little harder to come by during midsummer compared to “off-season” events. Then of course you have those where the Brookings Effect occurs and they absolutely bake for short spurts.

Forks is also well inland. Hard to compare Forks to Brookings geographically.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

Baffin vortex pattern is back from the dead.

2013-18 regime reincarnated.

1A708AB3-4211-4760-913B-31B96D46806C.png

A fading regime's last dying breath?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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06z GFS neuters the heat. Wouldn't be shocked.

But it's not really the magnitude I'm worried about, unless we're actually surpassing 100F again. It's that this heatwave feels just as inevitable as any other this last bastard of a decade, despite this being a La Niña coming after one of our genuinely colder Springs on record.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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This probably won't be an average summer in southern Oregon (even though June sounded like it was good).

I noticed yesterday was the 9th day in a row over 90 at KLMT. Before last year, that's a pretty good stretch for that town.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It seems less likely now that we have something even close to the ridiculousness of last year... the 00Z ECMWF toned it down as well and showed just 2 days in the 90s in Seattle.   I envisioned all the models going crazy again after the 12Z ECMWF yesterday.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems less likely now that we have something even close to the ridiculousness of last year... the 00Z ECMWF toned it down as well and showed just 2 days in the 90s in Seattle.   I envisioned all the models going crazy again after the 12Z ECMWF yesterday.    

I guess torching isn't being one upped quite as often as years prior.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I guess torching isn't being one upped quite as often as years prior.

I sincerely hope that last year is never 'one upped'.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Early August arctic blast (average temps?) coming into focus too 

I thought after me leaving you guys would get the most epic t'storm event in 15 years, these La Ninas are not doing great patterns for them. lol Last year was unimpressive too. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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On 7/18/2022 at 8:42 AM, Randyc321 said:

The weather has been great.  I am currently refurbishing an old sailing yacht (not mine, side job) in Eagle Harbor on the island.  Best summer of my adult life so far.

Meant to post this pic the other day from Doc's Marina Grill on Eagle Harbor.   We were actually there right after you posted this.   What an awesome place to spend the summer!  Is the boat you are working on in the background here?   

From the restaurant looking east you can actually see the tops of the buildings in downtown Seattle.    But Bainbridge Island feels like a world away.  

20220719_151131.jpg

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

61 at Aurora. Nice morning here at the Lake Oswego jobsite.

Actually is Aurora the best station to represent Lake Oswego? Seems like it’s the most similar microclimate but I could be wrong on that.

I would look at both HIO and UAO and take the middle ground, since it's kind of a mid-way point.

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7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I don't pay for WB during the offseason but is the EC stuck there too?

Nope, ran quickly on WB.

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

A fading regime's last dying breath?

I certainly hope so. In theory niño-4/WPAC cooling should reduce the prospects of it sticking around, but we’ll see.

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50 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I guess torching isn't being one upped quite as often as years prior.

We have a serious problem if any year is trying to “one up” last year… let say even for the next decade. 

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46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I sincerely hope that last year is never 'one upped'.   

I keep getting the feeling it’s gonna over perform in terms of heat somehow. Really hoping we can keep this heatwave just upper 80s low 90s for a few days. I can live with that but once we start talking a few days 93-97 that’s no good. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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Just now, Cloud said:

We have a serious problem if any year is trying to “one up” last year… let say even for the next decade. 

This century is more like it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Whatever happens in the near term the models are bullish on a retrogression / NW trough for early August.  Can't wait to see how that actually plays out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Everyone was frothing at the mouth the week before Christmas last year at how cold the models were looking…Dangerous cold that posed a risk to life and nature. We are in a similar situation now with the other side of the temperature scale but I see no frothing. C’MON!!! 
Like Matt I also like extremes as I find them very fascinating. I lost a few shrubs to the low single digit readings we had in late December but nobody seemed to care about that! If I were to say I lost some shrubs during last year’s heatwave people would have jumped all over that with a finger in my face saying “SEE…TOLD YOU! HEAT BAD!” 
 

At the end of the day it’s all about the preference! Do I want to see us ever top June 2021…Mostly no, however that extreme side of me has a different answer. Would I want to see a more extreme version of January 1950…The practical side of me says mostly no because of the MASSIVE amount of work it would take snow removal wise and the damage it would most likely cause to my house and property…But…That extreme side of me would say BRING IT!! 

Nice morning! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Whatever happens in the near term the models are bullish on a retrogression / NW trough for early August.  Can't wait to see how that actually plays out.

EPS looks quicker in the retrogression than GEFS.

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Everyone was frothing at the mouth the week before Christmas last year at how cold the models were looking…Dangerous cold that posed a risk to life and nature. We are in a similar situation now with the other side of the temperature scale but I see no frothing. C’MON!!! 
Like Matt I also like extremes as I find them very fascinating. I lost a few shrubs to the low single digit readings we had in late December but nobody seemed to care about that! If I were to say I lost some shrubs during last year’s heatwave people would have jumped all over that with a finger in my face saying “SEE…TOLD YOU! HEAT BAD!” 
 

At the end of the day it’s all about the preference! Do I want to see us ever top June 2021…Mostly no, however that extreme side of me has a different answer. Would I want to see a more extreme version of January 1950…The practical side of me says mostly no because of the MASSIVE amount of work it would take snow removal wise and the damage it would most likely cause to my house and property…But…That extreme side of me would say BRING IT!! 

Nice morning! 

PDX dropped to a record breaking low of 25 in December!

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Everyone was frothing at the mouth the week before Christmas last year at how cold the models were looking…Dangerous cold that posed a risk to life and nature. We are in a similar situation now with the other side of the temperature scale but I see no frothing. C’MON!!! 
Like Matt I also like extremes as I find them very fascinating. I lost a few shrubs to the low single digit readings we had in late December but nobody seemed to care about that! If I were to say I lost some shrubs during last year’s heatwave people would have jumped all over that with a finger in my face saying “SEE…TOLD YOU! HEAT BAD!” 
 

At the end of the day it’s all about the preference! Do I want to see us ever top June 2021…Mostly no, however that extreme side of me has a different answer. Would I want to see a more extreme version of January 1950…The practical side of me says mostly no because of the MASSIVE amount of work it would take snow removal wise and the damage it would most likely cause to my house and property…But…That extreme side of me would say BRING IT!! 

Nice morning! 

I have the same thoughts if we ever beat the monthly snowfall record of Jan 1916 which currently stands at 238"

Last Dec we had 110" and it was nightmare with delayed street plowing, power outages and an ice dam on my roof. But at the same time breaking the record with like a 250" month would be incredible. 

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That upwelling wave is d**n impressive. One of the fastest rises in the 20°C isotherm depth ever recorded in July.

Haven’t had a strong La Niña in tandem with +QBO and increasing solar since 2010/11, and that was one of the blockiest winters on record in the NH. Lots of great winters on that list, including 1949/50 and 1955/56.

The cool niño-4/tropical WPAC is also reminiscent of 2010/11, as is the quiet WPAC tropical season.

Has to be a top analog for 2022/23.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

That upwelling wave is d**n impressive. One of the fastest rises in the 20°C isotherm depth ever recorded in July.

Haven’t had a strong La Niña in tandem with +QBO and increasing solar since 2010/11, and that was one of the blockiest winters on record in the NH. Lots of great winters on that list, including 1949/50 and 1955/56.

The cool niño-4/tropical WPAC is also reminiscent of 2010/11, as is the quiet WPAC tropical season.

Has to be a top analog for 2022/23.

2010/11 was okay in the Willamette Valley for cold (only 1.8" of snow at PDX though) but I'd definitely prefer 1949/50 and 1955/56. I really hope we see a regionwide arctic blast though, even if it's dry. Dec 2013 was the last one to drop below -12c at 850mb at SLE

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, Phil said:

That upwelling wave is d**n impressive. One of the fastest rises in the 20°C isotherm depth ever recorded in July.

Haven’t had a strong La Niña in tandem with +QBO and increasing solar since 2010/11, and that was one of the blockiest winters on record in the NH. Lots of great winters on that list, including 1949/50 and 1955/56.

The cool niño-4/tropical WPAC is also reminiscent of 2010/11, as is the quiet WPAC tropical season.

Has to be a top analog for 2022/23.

I liked 2010-11! Lovely events in November and February! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Heatwave is showing up on the phone app now

Screenshot_20220720-211315.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Meant to post this pic the other day from Doc's Marina Grill on Eagle Harbor.   We were actually there right after you posted this.   What an awesome place to spend the summer!  Is the boat you are working on in the background here?   

From the restaurant looking east you can actually see the tops of the buildings in downtown Seattle.    But Bainbridge Island feels like a world away.  

20220719_151131.jpg

Thanks Tim and actually yes that is the row of docks I am working at.  I am having a great time.  I walk by those tables everytime I go to the marina.  Luckily for me this is 10 to 15 minute walk from my house.

 

BTW order the El Portal burger at Docs

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1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

Thanks Tim and actually yes that is the row of docks I am working at.  I am having a great time.  I walk by those tables everytime I go to the marina.  Luckily for me this is 10 to 15 minute walk from my house.

 

BTW order the El Portal burger at Docs

Too funny... I actually ordered the El Portal and it was awesome.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I liked 2010-11! Lovely events in November and February! 

10-11 was a good example that winters don't always blow their load early. The southern mountains had no shortage of snow going into Spring.

Huge difference with this last winter, even though it had a snowy December like 2010, there was about 8-10 weeks it didn't snow from early January to mid-March where I used to live.. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I just posted what I'm thinking right now in the contest thread. 

PDX:

Sun-90

Mon-97

Tue-100

Wed-99

Thu-98

Fri-96

Those numbers are a lot more sensible than the 106 I went for lol.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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12z GFS is 7 degrees hotter for PDX on Monday than the 06z

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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According to the NWS Portland AFD, there's a 35% chance of temps >105 and a 15% chance of temps >110... There's a higher chance of temps greater than 110 than highs lower than 90

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

What does the 12z gfs show Portland peaking at for a high? 

101 on Tuesday I think

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Another top 5 July unfolding for them? lol 

This is several top tier Julys since 2013. 

2022-07-20 12_54_56-Klamath Falls, OR 10-Day Weather Forecast _ Weather Underground.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

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[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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