On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS on top and 06Z EPS at the end of the run at the same time.    Pretty minor differences.   

 

No, there is a huge difference in the evolution.

You will see that in time when the GFS eventually corrects.

[Phil]

That back-digging near the Aleutians is complete bulls**t.

My eyes bleed looking at it. Doesn’t make a lick of sense.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

No, there is a huge difference in the evolution.

You will see that in time when the GFS eventually corrects.

Big difference later.   But not much at D6.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big difference later.   But not much at D6.

Funny how I already saw it by D4.  

It shows up well before D6. I’ll bet even the GEFS will look nothing like that.

[T-Town]

Sun is trying to come out here. 62 degrees. 

[MossMan]

Cloudy and 57 currently. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

A repeat of August 1954??

Not a chance 

[Phil]

The GEFS is notoriously under-dispersed and even it looks very different by D5 (especially over Northern Canada).

Embarrassing.

[RentonHill]

If the GFS was a ballboy

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GEFS is notoriously under-dispersed and even it looks very different by D5 (especially over Northern Canada).

Embarrassing.

Another hot run huh? Probably will verify. EPS has consistently been toasty in the long range.

[Phil]

46 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I know this is extremely early, but do you have any thoughts on when our best window for winter weather is? If you think it'll be more frontloaded or backloaded. Sorry if this is way too early for an idea about that lol

Too early to know. Only low frequency tendencies are remotely decipherable at this range.

[RentonHill]

What kind of tree is this that has co-opted this cedar?

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Another hot run huh? Probably will verify. EPS has consistently been toasty in the long range.

We’ll see. Last 2 times the GFS/GEFS tried this it was wrong.

In fact it resembles one of the leading error modes (across guidance) ahead of an IO/E-Hem MJO in J/A/S. It’s more emphasized in the GEFS/GEPS but even the EPS can fall victim.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Too early to know. Only low frequency tendencies are remotely decipherable at this range.

Something happening in January would be nice. Excepting January 2017 (which was the 7th coldest on record at PDX), they've been pretty boring recently.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

26 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Something happening in January would be nice. Excepting January 2017 (which was the 7th coldest on record at PDX), they've been pretty boring recently.

Jan 1950 or 1969 please.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

15 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Cloud pic is Redondo beach near Federal Way on the Sound!

lol…posted that shot of the marmot in the hiker forum and many thought the same thing .  He was pretty huge for a marmot !

Yeah it's bigger than the ones I've seen down here. I always forget they're just really huge squirrels.  

[Phil]

1949? Analog?

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14 hours ago, Doiinko said:

The reanalysis for 2016-2017 is actually decently similar!:

Indeed! There is definitely a sweet spot (latitude/longitude) where we want that blocking high to set up shop at.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Indeed! There is definitely a sweet spot (latitude/longitude) where we want that blocking high to set up shop at.

Great winter in my location! I had 18" of snow!

[MossMan]

Up to 59! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Severe clear already today. Another warm one. 

[T-Town]

Actually looks a little convective here. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

#ten90July?

[TT-SEA]

Lo and behold... the 12Z ECMWF is digging that Alaskan vortex westward like the GFS.     This does leave more room for weak little ULLs over the PNW as well.   But the surface details still show sunny and warm.  

 

[TT-SEA]

That weak ULL one week from today doesn't do much to keep it cool on this run...

 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty toasty... not so sure we are going into a colder pattern for the second half of July.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty toasty... not so sure we are going into a colder pattern for the second half of July.

 

We are obviously not, and yet another warm summer in the 2013- now 2022 mold. The beat goes on and western mega drought continues.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Yeah it's bigger than the ones I've seen down here. I always forget they're just really huge squirrels.  

Back when I saw my first one in 2016 and didn't know what they were until googling, I thought they resembled beavers. Just without the huge front teeth.

They're groundhogs technically but a lot of people don't know that.

[Cascadia_Wx]

If this year can’t do it for a cool summer, given the state of ENSO and the PDO, we probably never will.

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lo and behold... the 12Z ECMWF is digging that Alaskan vortex westward like the GFS.     This does leave more room for weak little ULLs over the PNW as well.   But the surface details still show sunny and warm.  

 

Indeed, and I’ll wager it’s wrong too. None of today’s model solutions make any sense to me whatsoever.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Indeed, and I’ll wager it’s wrong too.

Doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.

I’m sure we will get the alphabet soup explanation of WHAT WENT WRONG after seeing a couple days in the triple digits the last week of July 

[Deweydog]

[Phil]

Not gonna bet my junk on it (yet) but it’s borderline. Might end up doing so.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sure we will get the alphabet soup explanation of WHAT WENT WRONG after seeing a couple days in the triple digits the last week of July 

If you’re wrong expect a torrent of weenie reacts.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

If you’re wrong expect a torrent of weenie reacts.  

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

If you’re wrong expect a torrent of weenie reacts.  

Hoping no richards are getting the guillotine. 

[T-Town]

Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

Hoping no richards are getting the guillotine. 

Any bet where winning = being proven right and losing = cutting off junk needs to be re-evaluated for appropriate cost/benefit analysis. 

[Phil]

Looks like the CPC is on team Death/Tim.  

 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Indeed, and I’ll wager it’s wrong too. None of today’s model solutions make any sense to me whatsoever.

EPS and control run went strongly in that direction as well.  

Whatever the GFS is seeing... the European suite is seeing the same thing.

[TacomaWx]

I mean was anyone really expecting late July to be cool besides Phil? It’s almost always the warmest time of year. Pretty much a best case scenario nowdays seems to be an average or slightly warmer than normal July and august by 1991-2020 averages. I thought this year might be the year we actually have a normal summer but that looks unlikely for July atleast. August hasn’t been cool in 20 years and I bet it won’t be this year either.