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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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8 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Another top 5 July unfolding for them? lol 

This is several top tier Julys since 2013. 

2022-07-20 12_54_56-Klamath Falls, OR 10-Day Weather Forecast _ Weather Underground.png

Weather.com is forecasting 3 consecutive 100s at Sunriver! Getting to triple digits there is not common at all.

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8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Weather.com is forecasting 3 consecutive 100s at Sunriver! Getting to triple digits there is not common at all.

I bet they go years in a row topping around 98 or 96.

Between 7/2/2013 - 6/27/2021 there were no triple digits at KLMT but there was usually a 99 every once in a while.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just now, FroYoBro said:

Nice to see other models aren’t hopping on board with the extreme Euro from yesterday. I can handle that. 

Looks like the typical 100-102 heat wave that Portland gets a couple times a summer. 

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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Looks like the typical 100-102 heat wave that Portland gets a couple times a summer. 

2012 even had one of those in early August. 

But that was the last year I can remember the hottest point occurring in that window. Summer was more often like that when I was a kid. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Looks like the typical 100-102 heat wave that Portland gets a couple times a summer. 

Lol. You do realize historically that Portland doesn’t average a couple of 100 degree heatwaves every summer, right? 

 Might be more normal moving forward though. (Maybe that was your joke?)

Edited by FroYoBro
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28 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Another top 5 July unfolding for them? lol 

This is several top tier Julys since 2013. 

2022-07-20 12_54_56-Klamath Falls, OR 10-Day Weather Forecast _ Weather Underground.png

100°F with a low of 58°F. :lol: :lol: 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

100°F with a low of 58°F. :lol: :lol: 

60+ lows are rare, they typically need a good monsoon flow in southern Oregon to get 60-65 lows.

I've seen 95/48 spreads there.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

60+ lows are rare, they typically need a good monsoon flow in southern Oregon to get 60-65 lows.

I've seen 95/48 spreads there.

A COOP station in Bethany in August 1968 recorded a 88/48 day and a 92/50 day which is a pretty decent diurnal range for West of the Cascades! 

 

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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20 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Lol. You do realize historically that Portland doesn’t average a couple of 100 degree heatwaves every summer, right? 

 Might be more normal moving forward though. (Maybe that was your joke?)

Wasn’t typical back in the day to get multiple +90 heatwaves a year in western WA either. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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26 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Lol. You do realize historically that Portland doesn’t average a couple of 100 degree heatwaves every summer, right? 

 Might be more normal moving forward though. (Maybe that was your joke?)

That's the joke. This is the new normal.

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3 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

That's the joke. This is the new normal.

It's now 1 every year on average? 

Used to be every 2 years it hits 100-101 there. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Wasn’t typical back in the day to get multiple +90 heatwaves a year in western WA either. 

"On this date back in 1994, Seattle hit 100 degrees for the first time. Since then, the century mark has been met just four other times."

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1 hour ago, FroYoBro said:

What does the 12z gfs show Portland peaking at for a high? 

12Z GFS for PDX... looking forward to that big crash on 8/5!    

 

gfs-deterministic-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-8318400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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52 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Lol. You do realize historically that Portland doesn’t average a couple of 100 degree heatwaves every summer, right? 

 Might be more normal moving forward though. (Maybe that was your joke?)

100+ is stretching it, but upper 90s or higher a couple heatwaves most summers is historically normal.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Meant to post this pic the other day from Doc's Marina Grill on Eagle Harbor.   We were actually there right after you posted this.   What an awesome place to spend the summer!  Is the boat you are working on in the background here?   

From the restaurant looking east you can actually see the tops of the buildings in downtown Seattle.    But Bainbridge Island feels like a world away.  

20220719_151131.jpg

This definitely looks worthy of a day trip on a sunny day. 

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12Z ECMWF is improved over its 00Z run for Tuesday... and the 00Z run was improved over the hellish 12Z run yesterday.    

Still hot... but PDX has gone from 109 to 104 and now to 102 that day.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-8880000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

A COOP station in Bethany in August 1968 recorded a 88/48 day and a 92/50 day which is a pretty decent diurnal range for West of the Cascades! 

 

Kind of surprising given how wet that month was. Hillsboro can pull 50+ diurnals in perfect situations.

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The numbers are in for June and the Puget Sound Lowlands averaged +0.8 using an 1895 to present normal.  Not terrible if you don't like torching.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Kind of surprising given how wet that month was. Hillsboro can pull 50+ diurnals in perfect situations.

A lot of places can pull off 40 to 45 in months like April or September.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

That upwelling wave is d**n impressive. One of the fastest rises in the 20°C isotherm depth ever recorded in July.

Haven’t had a strong La Niña in tandem with +QBO and increasing solar since 2010/11, and that was one of the blockiest winters on record in the NH. Lots of great winters on that list, including 1949/50 and 1955/56.

The cool niño-4/tropical WPAC is also reminiscent of 2010/11, as is the quiet WPAC tropical season.

Has to be a top analog for 2022/23.

That narrowly missed being a really great winter.  Nov and Feb had great events, but the middle of the winter just missed a major snowstorm that would have made the winter as a whole fantastic.  As it is Nov 2010 had the coldest min I've recorded this century.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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4 hours ago, GobBluth said:

EPS looks quicker in the retrogression than GEFS.

Yeah...the window for real heat will be pretty short.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This inspired me to take a look at a modern history of 100+ degree days at PDX:

1970’s: 14, 102 average max

1980’s: 15, 102.2 average max

1990’s: 12, 100.8 average max

2000’s: 15, 102.1 average max

2010’s: 13, 101.2 average max

2020’s: 5, 108.2 average max

Pretty tight range overall among a warming climate, until…..

 

Wow, that's some nice data. So from 1970 to 2019, PDX averaged 1.38 days at 100+ every summer with a 101.66 avg max. The 108/112/116 last summer definitely skewed things. I think this upcoming heatwave will mirror the previous decades. With PDX getting 1 or 2 100+ days and the max being around 100-103.

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Long term average for SEA is about three 90+ days/year.

OLM about 6.

 

We’ve been getting about double that at SEA and here the last few years. Last year had 5 here at my house. 2020 and 2019 just one but 2013-2018 had more than normal every year. Not saying it’s uncommon to hit 90 though not that unusual just happening more often. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

12z Euro is honestly not that bad.. But this is a matter of location. I think it's quite tolerable for Central Sound point north. 

Still hot for WV and south sound.

Gotta remember that it overdoes the cooling effect in the north south a bit too. Looks like 3 atleast or maybe even 4 consecutive +90 days here. We actually have only pulled off 4 +90s in a row here twice since 2005…those being July 2006 and 2009. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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Fairly Warm currently but not terrible considering what’s coming next week. 78 here at 1pm should end up 83-85 this afternoon. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The biggest difference (until last year of course) hasn't really been with the extreme end of things but more with the number of modestly warm 80+ days, and conversely with the noticeable drop off in the number of cool <75 highs  in July/August.

Or, hey, I know, someone could make a graph of the annual average temperature over the years and draw a line through the trend.

I know I've seen it before somewhere, but a search couldn't turn it up.

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Actually, on the same topic, I've wondered why I've never seen a chart or graph depicting degree days -- both heating and cooling -- over time. Seems to me like that would be an interesting way of tracking temperature trends, and the information is right there on the NWS daily climate reports.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

The biggest difference (until last year of course) hasn't really been with the extreme end of things but more with the number of modestly warm 80+ days, and conversely with the noticeable drop off in the number of cool <75 highs  in July/August. 

At PDX, the average number of annual 80+ days per decade:

1940s: 46

1950s: 40

1960s: 47

1970s: 54

1980s: 51

1990s: 60

2000s: 58

2010s: 66

2020s (thus far): 77

And then the number of <75 highs in July/August:

1940s: 19

1950s: 21

1960s: 20

1970s: 18

1980s: 18

1990s: 14

2000s: 13

2010s: 10

2020s (so far): 9

Wow, the 1950s had really cool summers. ❄🥶

In a few days we will double the amount of 80+ days compared to the 1950s and we are only 25% through this decade.

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6 hours ago, MossMan said:

Everyone was frothing at the mouth the week before Christmas last year at how cold the models were looking…Dangerous cold that posed a risk to life and nature. We are in a similar situation now with the other side of the temperature scale but I see no frothing. C’MON!!! 
Like Matt I also like extremes as I find them very fascinating. I lost a few shrubs to the low single digit readings we had in late December but nobody seemed to care about that! If I were to say I lost some shrubs during last year’s heatwave people would have jumped all over that with a finger in my face saying “SEE…TOLD YOU! HEAT BAD!” 
 

At the end of the day it’s all about the preference! Do I want to see us ever top June 2021…Mostly no, however that extreme side of me has a different answer. Would I want to see a more extreme version of January 1950…The practical side of me says mostly no because of the MASSIVE amount of work it would take snow removal wise and the damage it would most likely cause to my house and property…But…That extreme side of me would say BRING IT!! 

Nice morning! 

Still got my heat from that June event!!!  It kept the house warm all winter 

E86FF1F1-22F6-432C-93F0-25005F9D51F6.png

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Great observations guys. I have a graph of average what I call 'Marine Layer Days', where it fails to hit 70F during JJA. Will post when I get home.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

100°F with a low of 58°F. :lol: :lol: 

I had 80/47 yesterday. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Great observations guys. I have a graph of average what I call 'Marine Layer Days', where it fails to hit 70F during JJA. Will post when I get home.

2005-present sub 70 days in July and august here has overall trended downwards but 2019 and 2020 in July specifically were an back to normal. Things definitely changed a bit in 2013 overall. 
2005-10

2006-15

2007-13

2008-17

2009-17

2010-26

2011-13

2012-14

2013-7

2014-6

2015-5

2016-8

2017-4

2018-8

2019-15

2020-16

2021-7

2022-4

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...the window for real heat will be pretty short.

Lock in a pattern of consistently warm but not real hot... that would be perfect!   The EPS showing upper 70s and low 80s means summer perfection.   

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-8318400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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