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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

I do recall Steve Pool on the 5pm news stating this lone cell had a top pushing 40K ft.

I think there was some convergence going on that day.  Probably played into it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think there was some convergence going on that day.  Probably played into it.

A bit, that was a hot day, like low 90's, it was a lone cell that "blew up" very quickly over N Kitsap/Hansville and drifted SE pretty fast.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

dude is a climate change denying rube.  blocked me a few years ago on Twitter when I called out his nonsense.  Trump tried to appoint him to lead NOAA I think

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/21/noaa-chief-scientist-maue/

Maue serves as the developer of weathermodels.com, a site that displays computer model information using eye-catching graphics to make their simulations accessible to professionals and hobbyists. He was previously an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank that was involved in efforts to question the scientific consensus on human-induced climate change.

Along with Patrick Michaels, a well-known climate change contrarian, Maue penned a 2018 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal challenging the climate change projections made in 1988 by noted former NASA scientist James Hansen, which other researchers, backed up by peer-reviewed studies, have found were prescient.

 

Does this sound like a denier?

Ryan Maeu:  "Extreme weather caused by climate change is the worst crisis humanity faces right now.  #ClimateEmergency"

You have no idea what you are talking about.  Seriously.  He talks about climate change ALL THE TIME.  Doesn't deny it at all.  Might have problems with models that have mostly overpredicted warming and problems with media hype that blames climate change for literally every single storm or hurricane,, but his twitter stream is full of what climate change will mean for society.  

You honestly have no clue about him because you don't read his tweets anymore. 

So you might want to pay attention and actually know what you're talking about before putting your foot in your mouth. 

 

Edited by Brian_in_Leavenworth
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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Super underperformance so far. Did not expect it. I was wrong I guess 🫤

 

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Pleasant surprise with how cool it is today.  Only 77 at SEA at 3PM.  I wonder if the GFS projection of 87 will bust today? 🤣

As I eluded to this morning… there was a marine push advancement between 8-10 this morning into SODO and BFI with a pretty good breeze going to keep things a touch cooler (I worked at SODO and experienced this). 61-64 vs 69-70 during this same timeframe yesterday. The marine layer cleared out by 11.  
 

Pretty sure that had some affect in keeping things cooler as the day progressed. 

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6 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

379C0FE6-2DCC-4FB0-B0BA-5ACA72697117.thumb.jpeg.98cf269ec3208918a1c07517d83f529b.jpeg

I don’t think Bend has ever even seen 5 100+ days in one month before, let alone consecutively.

That’s a gross forecast. But something tells me that statement is wrong 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

New EURO for the peak day of the heatwave has lowered to match the GFS more.  It now shows below 100F for Portland at 98F, which is exactly what GFS has been saying for days. It also significantly lowers the heat for the Puget Sound to numbers similar to GFS.  It actually is cooler in Tacoma compared to GFS.  GFS says 96F for Tacoma, but EURO is now at 91F.  Seattle is lower now in EURO than GFS and hotter for the north.  GFS has firmly stood against a hot north.  So EURO is more all over the place currently.  The Canadian model is even lower than both GFS and EURO.  It has Portland at 91F.  I didn't include it's photo below.

 

Screen Shot 2022-07-21 at 4.22.03 PM.png

The Euro cooled for Tuesday and Wednesday but then on Friday and Saturday it showed 118+ East of the Cascades. Nice to see the the closer range stuff is cooling though.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:


I seem to recall some good things happening later in 1985. 

1985 isn't a bad fit for this pattern coming up.  The very strong surface high over the NE Pacific was present that year just like what are seeing now.  Interestingly summer was in strong contrast to the rest of that very cold year.  1985 was a great example of a year with 4 distinct seasons here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

They need to make them like they do in Phoenix.

Concrete.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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Pretty huge difference between the GFS ensemble mean and the Euro ensemble mean at portland. These temps start Sunday for Portland.

ECMWF ensemble mean: 92/98/98/100/99/97/93

GFS ensemble mean: 84/86/88/91/92/91/90

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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43 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Pretty huge difference between the GFS ensemble mean and the Euro ensemble mean at portland. These temps start Sunday for Portland.

ECMWF ensemble mean: 92/98/98/100/99/97/93

GFS ensemble mean: 84/86/88/91/92/91/90

EPS numbers have come down to where the GFS was a day or two ago, and now the GFS is ten degrees under that. 

I still don’t think we are out of the woods as far as the threat of extreme heat with this one goes, though.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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84/58 day here. Mostly sunny with some scattered clouds at times. Down to 75 now with a marine push underway. The air feels great out there right now. Will enjoy it while it lasts.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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On an additional note, I have to say I'm very happy with how this forum has been all week. Seven days. One whole week. No drama! Even with a large heatwave coming into view! And not being weird about it either!! I appreciate you all listening, the quality of this place has improved tremendously.

There are a few members that have really stepped it up and they know who they are. Can't thank y'all enough.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Going to need that trough over Minnesota to scoot on out by next weekend.   👍

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8955600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

BC031135-0AE0-4948-8214-D2A5C9F0F14A.jpeg

9EFD3BE7-B2A7-4B87-8F78-BD77E017A288.jpeg

Cheers friends, had a great 21st (birthday, not just day of month!) today. Hope y'all are well. View at Ivar's was spectacular; and ordered my first drink. Lime basil cocktail. It was pretty good!

Happy Birthday ! Cheers 🍻 

83/56 and currently 70*

Sunset was nice but really no fun clouds to compliment it, looking west anyhow 

 

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1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Where is that?

My former driveway! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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GFS is very hot east of the cascades, more agreement with the Euro.

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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On 7/17/2022 at 9:26 AM, Phil said:

That back-digging near the Aleutians is complete bulls**t.

My eyes bleed looking at it. Doesn’t make a lick of sense.

40907B50-E3AF-4987-BB29-D6B7235D8792.gif

Have to follow up on this... now that its actually happening.   

This is next 3.5 days per the 18Z ECMWF.    Goofy GFS was showing 'back digging' and its actually going to happen.    

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1658426400-1658426400-1658750400-10.gif

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55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

BC031135-0AE0-4948-8214-D2A5C9F0F14A.jpeg

9EFD3BE7-B2A7-4B87-8F78-BD77E017A288.jpeg

Cheers friends, had a great 21st (birthday, not just day of month!) today. Hope y'all are well. View at Ivar's was spectacular; and ordered my first drink. Lime basil cocktail. It was pretty good!

I thought you were older lol…just turned 23 a couple months ago. Enjoy 21 while it lasts it just flys right by. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

D2771793-AD00-4059-A6FF-FC414A823F2E.png

I'll just take my 71 and sit quietly here in the back of the room.  Granted it will probably be in the upper 70's a few miles inland IMBY but that's a d*mn sight better than that upper 90's/triple digit bullsh*t taking aim at a lot of the forum members.

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Handful of 90s 

floop-gfs-2022072200.sfctmax_024h.us_state_wa.gif

Starting to look like atleast 5 days in the 92-97 range now. Even July 2009 was just 4 days +90. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-11

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I'll just take my 71 and sit quietly here in the back of the room.  Granted it will probably be in the upper 70's a few miles inland IMBY but that's a d*mn sight better than that upper 90's/triple digit bullsh*t taking aim at a lot of the forum members.

Pretty sure if its 100 degrees in Seattle then it will be at least 90 degrees in your area based on past history.

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

I do have to wonder if Hunga Tonga is contributing to the unusual heat across the midlatitude NH. If it contributed to the unusual cold in April and May…

Are there any aggregate temp measures for the NH or midlatitudes yet? For recent months? Obviously its not causing the extreme heat events on its own but it would show up on an aggregation measure i'd think. that much water vapor into the air immediately should have some impact fairly quickly. I just havent seen anything posted about it anywhere. 

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21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

How did it get snowy?

Backdoor action. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I do have to wonder if Hunga Tonga is contributing to the unusual heat across the midlatitude NH. If it contributed to the unusual cold in April and May…

Phil says no way.   

My personal feeling is that it shifted the pattern and caused a resurgence of the Nina which had an immediate impact in the PNW with cold and wet weather.    But overall its going to lead to warming and it might last a few years based on what I have read.   Pretty much uncharted territory right now in terms of stratospheric water vapor.    

And this is a 3rd year Nina summer?   I can't imagine what the next Nino summer will be like.      

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I thought this would be a resolution issue but the maps literally do not show a major heat wave. But the 500mb pattern is pretty darn near identical? How can the GEM be so bad at surface temps? Is it always this bad and i just never notice in the winter? 

gem-all-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-8448000.png

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I've got bad news... after all the progress shown in earlier runs, GFS decided to make a new PEAK hot day.  Now it's Friday.... and Tacoma is showing a high of 101F as is Portland.

So the original peak days of Tuesday and Wednesday are no more... now it's Thursday Friday. :(  Let's hope this changes. Horrible heat for the Columbia Basin with Twi-Cities at 114, Omak around 104, Spokane 102, Clarkston 104, The Dalles 111, Medford in a week long trend of 100 + degrees.  Gosh darn, what is happening?  Please just end all this. 

Still though, as I said before, cool spots are the coast. Oregon coast is 70s to as low as 60s.  Washington's coast is cooler in the mid 70s and north of Seattle between Everett and Bellingham is cooler, low 80s to 70s. Port Townsend is supposed to be in the 60s.  

Screen Shot 2022-07-21 at 9.53.30 PM.png

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49 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

D2771793-AD00-4059-A6FF-FC414A823F2E.png

If the Euro and GFS verify then the all time state records for WA (120) and OR (119) could be broken.

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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