On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had no snow in December 2017, though it was a pretty chilly month overall. We had almost no snow that winter until February. We were blessed that February and March. 

I don't remember how much snow we had in Dec 2017 but I think it was probably ~0.5" or so.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Fill's late July forecast is looking good.

Yeah... was thinking about finding one of his posts about the second half of July being colder than normal and troughy.    Not sure if the issue was timing related or something else.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Fill's late July forecast is looking good.

I remember a cool and troughy late June 2021 being predicted a few weeks out too. He needs to actually start predicting summer ridging for us sometimes.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Had a 79/51 day yesterday with morning clouds and afternoon sun. Really wish we could hold onto that type of weather.

Clear with a low of 56 this morning. Let’s see if it hits 90 today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS definitely pushes the heat back a few days and tones down the worst of it. Hard for me to put a lot of stock into that though considering last night’s EPS was pretty much in lock step with its mega hot operational run.

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

What is termination dust?

First snow! 

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/termination_dust#:~:text=termination dust (uncountable),on the slopes above them.

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

Their was heavy drizzle where I was yesterday

At the base of this mammoth beast (Comet Falls)

Beautiful. It’s been years since I did that hike but I seem to recall it was pretty strenuous. 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the GEFS is warmer for next week.    Trending towards it operational run rather than the other way around.  

[FroYoBro]

40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Will Salem and PDX set their all time July record highs this month? IBRChris thinks so. 

That seems like a very extreme prediction to make at this point from a met.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

That seems like a very extreme prediction to make at this point from a met.

Heatwaves seem to excite him.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, smerfylicious said:

2 more days and we go to fiber gig internet. Bye comcast. Outcompeted by a smaller company with better cost and services. 

I may need to do something like this or just drop tv since I’m seldom home currently. Comcast way to much money now 

[Blizzard777]

57 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Dang, that looks beautiful up there. Gotta make a trip up there sometime. It definitely lives up to its name.

I’ll definitely be going back on a clear day but this time not on a weekend.  Traffic horrible!!!  But I was hiking with a group to meet people so made the sacrifice 

[Blizzard777]

31 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Beautiful. It’s been years since I did that hike but I seem to recall it was pretty strenuous. 

I was breathing hard!!! Loved it…means you can eat more pizza afterwords !!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

The 12z GEFS looks a lot more reasonable than the Euro/EPS suite, and a little cooler than the last few runs. But very hard to bet against the Euro/EPS when they are in lock step like that.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

107 on the car thermometer!

[Doinko]

https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1549448971676012546?cxt=HHwWhMC-pazo34ArAAAA

[MossMan]

They are EVERYWHERE!!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

They are EVERYWHERE!!! 

We don't have many slugs here and never big ones. But that could also be because of our two dozen free ranging ducks. 

[TacomaWx]

Pretty sure this heatwave is not gonna get toned down…looks like a pretty great signal for prolonged heat with that ridge sticking with us all the way into august on the ensembles. Too bad we couldn’t keep the weather we’ve had the majority of the last month going. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Pretty sure this heatwave is not gonna get toned down…looks like a pretty great signal for prolonged heat with that ridge sticking with us all the way into august on the ensembles. Too bad we couldn’t keep the weather we’ve had the majority of the last month going. 

I bet SLE hits 105-107 by months end. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I bet SLE hits 105-107 by months end. 

It’s not looking short lived either. But you know we will get a cloudy weekend in august and people will be wondering why this summers had no nice days at all  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s not looking short lived either. But you know we will get a cloudy weekend in august and people will be wondering why this summers had no nice days at all  

Oh for sure. If we don't end up hitting 110 people will be PISSED. Kind of looking like something out of August 2017 or 2015. An extended 7-10 day run of heat. When we had the heatwave at the end of June it pretty much set in stone we would have another significant heatwave, if you look at years that had similar heatwaves in late June essentially every single year had another big heatwave later on. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What the GEFS is showing is somewhat tolerable, what the EURO is illustrating. Not so much. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What the GEFS is showing is somewhat tolerable, what the EURO is illustrating. Not so much. 

Euro will probably be more correct than the GEFS, sadly. I'm hoping it's not prolonged though.

[BLI snowman]

Canadian was fairly tolerable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Record high for today at SLE is 106 from 1956. Looks like they hit triple digits thrice that month. Including two separate heatwaves. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Record high for today at SLE is 106 from 1956. Looks like they hit triple digits thrice that month. Including two separate heatwaves. 

An early August like that one would be mighty swell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

An early August like that one would be mighty swell.

63/51 on the 2nd at SLE. A little heat mid-month and then a very very pleasant end to the month. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro looks to be sticking to its guns sadly. That’s one fat ridge to our west. Kind of just floats over us like a balloon with nothing to stop it.

[TT-SEA]

106 in Portland on day 6?   Unbelievable.   Jim jinxed this one.   

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

63/51 on the 2nd at SLE. A little heat mid-month and then a very very pleasant end to the month. 

 

Battle Ground had a 57/52 on the 2nd with 1.95" of rain. Big deformation zone, I believe. Kind of a midsummer version of that May 2013 trough.

[Anti Marine Layer]

40 minutes ago, MossMan said:

They are EVERYWHERE!!! 

It's a plague. Run your tractor over them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

106 in Portland on day 6?   Unbelievable.   Jim jinxed this one.   

We'll be lucky to stay below 105. 

[BLI snowman]

Euro can go f*ck itself.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

106 in Portland on day 6?   Unbelievable.   Jim jinxed this one.   

At least it will be 59 over the ocean.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

106 in Portland on day 6?   Unbelievable.   Jim jinxed this one.   

Remember the EURO has a cool bias, so probably 112-115 for Willamette Valley locales. With all the record heat across the globe it was pure hubris to think we would escape. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next day is even warmer. 

[Kayla]

30C @850mb...110F not out of the questions with that.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

16 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nome setting long standing records with this mammoth trough, not even sitting in its center.

Not to sound like Bastardi but this is kind of an equal and opposite phenomena to the European heat wave right now. Fleeting, though, and I'm sure there will be plenty more unanswered all time record heat waves all across the globe to come...

 

15 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Every action has an opposite and equal reaction....

We are seeing records like this all the time this year.  I think we are getting into a 1930s configuration (highly perturbed and amplified).

This. There's no reason we can't get a record breaking anomalous ridge to develop around the Alaska Aleutian Islands this winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is starting to remind me of the first 10 days of August 2017, just a bit earlier. If you recall SLE had 101,107, and 103 to start the month and was above 90 for the first 10 days.