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On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)


More original name title?  

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  1. 1. More original name title?

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    • Preferance Wars
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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The GFS is overdoing the heat so we’ll have to see. It called for a mid to upper-70s for SEA today and we were not even close. Euro was more accurate. 
 

I think we shave off 3-4 degrees to what the GFS is showing. Would still be in the 90s for next week. 

I got up to 77

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I knew the streak would come to an end this series. I was hoping to at least get to 15. Oh well! Focus on winning this series now

came out very flat after the All star break and no Julio hurts.

Too much down time this week... too much time to think.   Hopefully now that the pressure of the streak is gone they can get back into a relaxed groove again.  

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10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I got up to 77

The GFS output for SEA is often quite accurate for the EPSL away from the water.    So in that regard the much maligned warm bias GFS output actually provides good information for out here.

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Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different!

I’ll be in Tampa FL so it won’t matter for me. 

D60826A0-C664-4713-82CE-A6F7CF0E0B76.png

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Just now, Phil said:

Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different!

D60826A0-C664-4713-82CE-A6F7CF0E0B76.png

Cool August?!?!

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different!

D60826A0-C664-4713-82CE-A6F7CF0E0B76.png

In agreement with its operational run at that same time... which then went right back to ridging.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different!

I’ll be in Tampa FL so it won’t matter for me. 

D60826A0-C664-4713-82CE-A6F7CF0E0B76.png

Was just gonna post that it gives me a little bit of mental strength to get through this if we don’t see endless cuck bashing 

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Was just gonna post that it gives me a little bit of mental strength to get through this if we don’t see endless cuck bashing 

I posted it earlier today... but the 12Z EPS looked similar around day 11 and 12.    

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

In agreement with its operational run at that same time... which then went right back to ridging.

Operational is much warmer at the same time. 

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

No

GFS at 276 hours on top... GEFS on the bottom.   Good agreement. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-9528000.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-9528000.png

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I posted it earlier today... but the 12Z EPS looked similar around day 11 and 12.    

When are you in MN again? Models trending warmer again there in early August.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

GFS at 276 hours on top... GEFS on the bottom.   Good agreement. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-9528000.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-9528000.png

Ensemble mean is cooler.

BD9CD220-F014-453B-9549-4030A863B6DF.gif

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Just now, Phil said:

When are you in MN again? Models trending warmer again there in early August.

Good.   Next week looks a little too chilly.   Mid 80s is good for being on a lake in MN.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ensemble mean is cooler.

BD9CD220-F014-453B-9549-4030A863B6DF.gif

Same general pattern.    Its a clear ridge break down on both.    EPS showed it too.   

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That’s actually pretty different.

Operational GFS has 2 cutoff ULLs and 2 EPAC hurricanes doing a fujiwhara dance..seems unlikely but who knows.

B2374D72-2EF3-494A-B381-F8A15C9CBBA8.gif

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Just now, Phil said:

That’s actually pretty different.

Operational GFS has 2 cutoff ULLs and 2 EPAC hurricanes doing a fujiwhara dance..seems unlikely but who knows.

B2374D72-2EF3-494A-B381-F8A15C9CBBA8.gif

When you are analyzing the specific details of the GFS and GEFS at almost 300 hours out... you are probably wasting your time.   The 12Z runs will likely be entirely different.   

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

When you are analyzing the specific details of the GFS and GEFS at almost 300 hours out... you are probably wasting your time.   The 12Z runs will likely be entirely different.   

Lol, I’m just bored dude. Hot weather gives me insomnia.

But in all seriousness that solution with the EPAC hurricanes is probably whack. As for the rest, I have no idea.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

CMC ensembles have the early August trough signal now as well. Interesting.

Not really that surprising... obviously it won't stay hot forever.    Looks like more of a return to normal for awhile on the CMC ensembles.   That would be nice.  

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1658534400-1658534400-1659916800-10.gif

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I meant to say - no!!!!

Good news is that the GEFS does not go back to hot immediately afterwards like the GFS.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Warm overnight lows have been absurd lately. Seemingly everywhere. Still can’t believe those 19th/early 20th century low temps were possible.

Even with a coolish pattern (up until this week, at least), since June 29th it’s only dropped below 70°F twice at DCA.

And one of the times was in the middle of a t-storm microburst, after which it rebounded into the 70s and warmed all night despite clears skies.

I’d think it was UHI, but even awful summers like 2011 and 2012 had plenty of lows in the 60s, and UHI was already maxed by then.

Something is just different now.

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I have a bad feeling the EC is going to be right. We almost always overperform like Peter North for high temps here.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Warm overnight lows have been absurd lately. Seemingly everywhere. Still can’t believe those 19th/early 20th century low temps were possible.

Even with a coolish pattern (up until this week, at least), since June 29th it’s only dropped below 70°F twice at DCA.

And one of the times was in the middle of a t-storm microburst, after which it rebounded into the 70s and warmed all night despite clears skies.

I’d think it was UHI, but even awful summers like 2011 and 2012 had plenty of lows in the 60s, and UHI was already maxed by then.

Something is just different now.

image.gif.4aa59879097226387dfaaf17301abaf6.gif

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41 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

No

Yeah, I don’t know why those 500mb height anomaly maps are constantly posted. I prefer the spaghetti charts since they show more than just a cherry picked snapshot at a given frame.

099FA7F9-BF54-45E8-BC58-D7DA63E8DB70.png
 

The operational GFS was obviously a huge outlier compared to the GEFS in he long range. There’s no argument there. Not saying that’s what will happen, just talking about tonight’s run of course.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

So the onshore component is going to help with fire risk with this, right? Like it’s not gonna be a raging east wind atleast?

No offshore flow to speak of. Each day will have a diurnal component with minor reversals possible at the usual suspects like Kelso, Corvallis, Shelton… Dew points will probably drift well into the 60’s at some point.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

So the onshore component is going to help with fire risk with this, right? Like it’s not gonna be a raging east wind atleast?

Yeah Mark Nelsen on his blog mentioned that the fire danger won't be that bad, but overnight temps will be warm because of humidity.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Uggghhh not a fan of the mugginess that’ll accompany the heat but atleast it’ll mitigate fire concerns in the short term. 

 

Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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Euro looks toasty on Sunday too. Sucks how long it’ll be hot but hopefully this is the big summer heat event and the rest of the summer ends up being more pleasant. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Euro looks toasty on Sunday too. Sucks how long it’ll be hot but hopefully this is the big summer heat event and the rest of the summer ends up being more pleasant. 

I spy a retrogression. 🧐

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Euro looks toasty on Sunday too. Sucks how long it’ll be hot but hopefully this is the big summer heat event and the rest of the summer ends up being more pleasant. 

This heatwave could set a record for 95+ days in a row at Portland. We could see two record setting heat waves in two years.

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I spy a retrogression. 🧐

I really hope so. Looks pretty toasty for a week straight by PNW standards after tomorrow. Just hoping the models start showing the cooldown sooner I’d like it to be over by this time next week. 

 

Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

This heatwave could set a record for 95+ days in a row at Portland. We could see two record setting heat waves in two years.

It could be a record up here too for consecutive +90s. It’s pretty hard to do more than 3 in a row so 5 would be pretty impressive statistically. 

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Summer stats

max temp-95

+80s-20

+85s-12

+90s-7

Summer rainfall-4.03”

August rainfall-0.12”

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5C2884FA-6FA8-4E51-A3CC-D3CB845B033A.jpeg

Nice day at the ball park. Too bad we lost but glad to hear Julio is okay.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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19 minutes ago, administrator said:

Meet Cyrus, a future forum admin and extreme fog chaser.

74C51ACE-66D6-4E0D-898E-68EFE7E490B8.jpeg

Congrats Fred!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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24 minutes ago, administrator said:

Meet Cyrus, a future forum admin and extreme fog chaser.

74C51ACE-66D6-4E0D-898E-68EFE7E490B8.jpeg

Congrats!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, administrator said:

Meet Cyrus, a future forum admin and extreme fog chaser.

74C51ACE-66D6-4E0D-898E-68EFE7E490B8.jpeg

Congratulations Fred!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Marine layer looks pretty thick here this morning... not broken clouds like I predicted.    ECMWF insists it will be a little slower to clear today and only shows a high of 71 at SEA.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Marine layer looks pretty thick here this morning... not broken clouds like I predicted.    ECMWF insists it will be a little slower to clear today and only shows a high of 71 at SEA.

so let me guess? another cloudy weekend? LOL!

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