On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

EPS definitely does not agree with the spike at the end of the Euro but I’m sure it will find a way to happen 

I see Jim’s cold...ummm... slightly above average early august! 

[Omegaraptor]

Real talk, praying for my grandma and uncle in Croatia. They do not have AC.

[TT-SEA]

Warm bias GFS keeps SEA below 100... which is good.   But the duration probably means fires are going to start ramping up and turn our blue skies to smoke eventually.  

[Doinko]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Warm bias GFS keeps SEA below 100... which is good.   But the duration probably means fires are going to start ramping up and turn our blue skies to smoke eventually.  

What does it show for Portland? Also, I think the Euro was showing 115+ east of the cascades in WA. That's only 5 degrees from the state record set last year.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS has a similar double pronged heatwave structure to the 00z Euro, but cools it off nicely afterwards. Could be a 7-10 day stretch above 85F though...

[Kayla]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Happy Birthday!!

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

What does it show for Portland? Also, I think the Euro was showing 115+ east of the cascades in WA. That's only 5 degrees from the state record set last year.

[BLI snowman]

51 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS has a similar double pronged heatwave structure to the 00z Euro, but cools it off nicely afterwards. Could be a 7-10 day stretch above 85F though...

It seems two things generally will be holding true:

1. The extreme, high high end temps will get watered down in the shorter term as we pull closer.

2. The duration will continue to prolong and any significant pattern change  will be getting pushed further back. 

A sharper, even more amplified event may have also at least meant a sharper crash afterwards but the dull and long-lasting solution now looks favored. Straight out of 2014 or 2018. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

Synopsis time? Uh, I think so!

Got a very similar day to yesterday on tap. Temps at KSEA readily fell to 58F or so, a little cooler than yesterday morning due to clear skies overnight and some calming of the large scale descent we've had these last few days. However, given an antecedently warmer airmass aloft, the difference should be made up and then some, with high temps reaching similar heights to yesterday, if not a little bit warmer, amidst broken high clouds.

Tonight into tomorrow a very weak upper level trough will move into the area. Projected 500mb height maps aren't flooring, but this trough will be significant to our weather nonetheless. Building onshore pressure gradients this afternoon, coinciding with the landfalling trough, will lead to a strong marine push tonight, ushering in a cloud layer from the Pacific that will last until noon at the earliest tomorrow, after a low in the 50s.

As much of a trough as it is, it is a weak one, and definitely a brief one, and the first signs of the week to come will arrive before the clouds even burn off. Heights will start rising rapidly throughout the day, and an elevated mixed layer will attempt to erode the marine layer from top to bottom due to strong descent aloft. Thankfully for us, there is only so much time in a single day, and the cool low level marine layer will persist, regardless of the clouds. High temps will summit in the 70s with a light westerly breeze, and moderate humidity. A stellar day.

Tomorrow night increasing heights will keep a significant marine push at bay, allowing skies to remain mostly clear. A chilly July night will be on tap, with lows in the 40s and 50s throughout the region. This is where the 'cool' weather highlights end.

The weekend into next week will be one giant period of heigh rises and increasing descent aloft. High temperatures will be some amount warmer than the day before each day from Saturday through at least Tuesday.

Beginning on Saturday, temperatures will reach 80F. Currently as of typing, I have no idea when the next day is that we'll fail to reach that mark.

A big fat ridge will blow up and park over us for some time, probably the majority of next week. There are still some differences between models regarding the structure and strenth of this dominant weather feature. Some (less now) members overrun the ridge with BC troughing, inhibit height rises, and prevent temperatures from nudging much past 85-90F. Others, a few EPS members at least, force some unfavorable dynamics into the mix, with a weather pattern not too dissimilar to July 2009 popping up, and highs eclipsing 100F in many parts of the Sound. Most however fall somewhere in the middle, leaning on a few days in the 90s, before scrambling into barely elligible (but warm skewed) noise in the long range.

No matter the exact outcome, this one main weather highlight remains: it will get warm to hot, starting Saturday, and will stay that way extending into the indefinite beyond. At least for now, until next weekend or so enters forecast viability.

Early looks at the first week of August suggest strong moderation of this pattern, with a signal for average to below average 850mb temps and solid 500mb troughing. Would mean a significant marine presence and below average temperatures. One can hope...

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Happy birthday!

[GobBluth]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It seems two things generally will be holding true:

1. The extreme, high high end temps will get watered down in the shorter term as we pull closer.

2. The duration will continue to prolong and any significant pattern change  will be getting pushed further back. 

A sharper, even more amplified event may have also at least meant a sharper crash afterwards but the dull and long-lasting solution now looks favored. Straight out of 2014 or 2018. 

 

Models seem to have given up on the retrograding block option.

[Blizzard777]

8 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

This is now a standing invite for anyone to meet me for a beer at the Local in downtown Renton. Pretty much any day. Just hit me up. Beers on me.  
 

I know your serious too! This past year I was brave man and began doing some of these meet ups in the hiking community.  This is a tough one for me as my hearing is failing.  Failing hearing does not work well in social gatherings….lol!  But regardless I just tell the group upfront your going to have to deal with me.  Some voices come in loud and clear while others I struggle. Anyhow, I can see myself playing golf or hiking with some of you! Even that beer might very well happen! 
 

looks nice outside
 

[Doinko]

23 minutes ago, Kayla said:

 

23 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Thank you! Wow, 10 days of 90+ weather would tie the record from 2009, and those 89 days could reach 90. Not sure if this can be called a "typical" heatwave anymore because of the duration showed of the GFS and the duration + extreme heat on the Euro.

Edit: Not sure why it quoted twice

[TacomaWx]

Low of 56 this morning…and Devastating TreNDz on the overnight runs it appears. 

[Kayla]

10 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

 

Thank you! Wow, 10 days of 90+ weather would tie the record from 2009, and those 89 days could reach 90. Not sure if this can be called a "typical" heatwave anymore because of the duration showed of the GFS and the duration + extreme heat on the Euro.

Edit: Not sure why it quoted twice

Yeah I had that same thought this morning looking at the models. While it's nice that they backed off of another June 2021 but a July 2009 isn't much better. It's really discouraging to see the persistence of the blocking high once it gets into position this weekend.

I blame Phil for this.

[T-Town]

Caught the marine layer as it was rolling in this morning. 

[TacomaWx]

We only had 5 +90 highs in the summers of 2009,2015 and 2021. That’s the most I’ve recorded here but if these mornings runs are right about extending the duration could pass those years up. Both models show a few low to mid 90s. (Very short window for heat)

[Doinko]

44 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It seems two things generally will be holding true:

1. The extreme, high high end temps will get watered down in the shorter term as we pull closer.

2. The duration will continue to prolong and any significant pattern change  will be getting pushed further back. 

A sharper, even more amplified event may have also at least meant a sharper crash afterwards but the dull and long-lasting solution now looks favored. Straight out of 2014 or 2018. 

 

Neither the GFS or Euro's solutions are good. The Euro is especially bad with 6+ days of 90+ and extreme heat.

[TacomaWx]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Warm bias GFS keeps SEA below 100... which is good.   But the duration probably means fires are going to start ramping up and turn our blue skies to smoke eventually.  

Yeah I was just thinking about this. Depending on where we’re at by mid august it’ll affect my trip going down to central Oregon in mid September for me forsure. 

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah I had that same thought this morning looking at the models. While it's nice that they backed off of another June 2021 but a July 2009 isn't much better. It's really discouraging to see the persistence of the blocking high once it gets into position this weekend.

I blame Phil for this.

What does the bar chart for Portland on the ECMWF look like? I agree, I'm glad that it's not looking like June 2021 but from what I saw on the Euro it might be almost as bad.

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What does the bar chart for Portland on the ECMWF look like? I agree, I'm glad that it's not looking like June 2021 but from what I saw on the Euro it might be almost as bad.

It toned down the medium range stuff at least.

[GobBluth]

Picking up any positives, but there is still disagreement on how hot we get, the EPS doesn't yet support the Euro double heat wave, and the 06 EPS is slightly cooler through next Tuesday than prior runs. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It toned down the medium range stuff at least.

Thank you! I would rather the Euro be the more reasonable one... The fact that it's showing extreme heat compared to the GFS is kind of worrying. Weather.com shows 5 days at 100 and 9 days over 90:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kold August?

[Cloud]

Got some marine layer advancing into SODO right now with a nice breeze. Nice and cool currently at 61

[SilverFallsAndrew]

53 this morning. Mostly sunny with a few marine clouds. 

Edited July 21, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Doinko]

12z seems slightly warmer than the 06z so far

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

12z seems slightly warmer than the 06z so far

Heat ends faster though, down to 80s at Portland by Saturday 

[BLI snowman]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kold August?

 In 20 more years, 1967 will look like a "kold August".

[GobBluth]

Just now, Doiinko said:

12z seems slightly warmer than the 06z so far

Slightly, but back to the faster cooldown later in the week.

[Doinko]

Just now, GobBluth said:

Slightly, but back to the faster cooldown later in the week.

That's nice to see, I hope the Euro also gets rid of the extreme heat by Fri/Sat

[Deweydog]

12z says the the drizzle gods may come a knockin’ for our friends up north a week from Saturday!

[GobBluth]

Just now, Doiinko said:

That's nice to see, I hope the Euro also gets rid of the extreme heat by Fri/Sat

Heat returns on GFS but more the 90 degree type.

[Cloud]

Per the 12z, next week looking like 4-5 days in the 90s and mid-90s for Central Sound. Brief cooldown then the heat reloads in the LR. 

Brutal man. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

46 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That's nice to see, I hope the Euro also gets rid of the extreme heat by Fri/Sat

12z UKMET only showing 90 for PDX on Mon/Tue now.

[snow_wizard]

SEA is running 5 lower than yesterday at this time.  Might see a theme of underperformance for most of the next week.  Not even going to be in the same league as last year for heat.

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Per the 12z, next week looking like 4-5 days in the 90s and mid-90s for Central Sound. Brief cooldown then the heat reloads in the LR. 

Brutal man. 

Not seeing the reload at all.  Keep in mind the GFS way overdoes temps for the Central Puget Sound.  We are in a trough for much of week two.

[Phil]

Had a Lake Sammamish moment today. Gf and I went swimming in the Potomac to cool off during a hike earlier and holy f**king crap it was literally bathwater. No relief at all.

Figured a running river would be relatively cool, but no dice. Checked the gauge at Little Falls and sure enough it reads 87°F. Maybe Tim’s depth finder isn’t as faulty as I thought.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01646500/#parameterCode=00010F&timeSeriesId=252060&period=P1Y

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not seeing the reload at all.  Keep in mind the GFS way overdoes temps for the Central Puget Sound.  We are in a trough for much of week two.

Really?    Not much of a trough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Had a Lake Sammamish moment today. Gf and I went swimming in the Potomac to cool off during a hike earlier and holy f**king crap it was literally bathwater. No relief at all.

Figured a running river would be relatively cool, but no dice. Checked the gauge at Little Falls and sure enough it reads 87°F. Maybe Tim’s depth finder isn’t as faulty as I thought.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01646500/#parameterCode=00010F&timeSeriesId=252060&period=P1Y

This was not bath water.