On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really?    Not much of a trough.

Classic summer trough with heights in the mid-upper 580’s.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really?    Not much of a trough.

F**king disgusting pattern. Baffin vortex never leads to anything good, in summer or winter.

[RentonHill]

Euro a few degrees cooler than 00z so far at hour 108

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

F**king disgusting pattern. Baffin vortex never leads to anything good, in summer or winter.

Arctic ice melt will be nearly non-existent, at least.

[RentonHill]

But still way off from GFS

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This was not bath water. 

The Snoqualmie River is always cold too... great place to go when its really warm.  

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Arctic ice melt will be nearly non-existent, at least.

On our side of pole, at least. But that pattern also advects a lot of warm air/water through the North Atlantic into the central arctic basin (esp during the winter) so in the long run it can hurt.

Those big -NAO years in the 1960s saw a substantial increase in the arctic ice volume/extent because flow was northerly (out of the arctic) in the N/NE Atlantic, where-as it is southerly under +NAO.

[RentonHill]

Closer agreement for day 6 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

On our side of pole, at least. But that pattern also advects a lot of warm air/water through the North Atlantic into the central arctic basin (esp during the winter) so in the long run it can hurt.

Those big -NAO years in the 1960s saw a substantial increase in the arctic ice volume/extent because flow was northerly (out of the arctic) in the N/NE Atlantic, where-as it is southerly under +NAO.

Looks like this year has the largest sea ice area at this point in the Arctic since 2009. And it's not too far behind 2008/2009 at that, with a favorable looking pattern for the next couple weeks.

Would be really nice to see this year finish with the highest summer extent since before the big dropoff in 2007.

[RentonHill]

Brutal

[Doinko]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Brutal

Doesn't the Euro usually underforecast high temps too?

[RentonHill]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Doesn't the Euro usually underforecast high temps too?

Up here it seems to. Not sure about elsewhere. 

[Phil]

CPC winter outlook is out. Looks like the type of pattern that would give Tim lots of snow.

[Doinko]

Look at the temps east of the Cascades:

[RentonHill]

MR Brightside

[Doinko]

Just now, Phil said:

CPC winter outlook is out. Looks like the type of pattern that would give Tim lots of snow.

I hope it's not a situation like Feb 2019 where the Puget Sound gets 20"+ of snow while most of Portland gets barely anything at all! Then again we were probably making up for 2016/17. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

CPC winter outlook is out. Looks like the type of pattern that would give Tim lots of snow.

Yes... because you know how it works for snow in our microclimates out here and a high level, generalized map definitely provides all the details needed to make that call at 6 months out.   

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yes... because you know how it works for snow in our microclimates out here and a high level, generalized map definitely provides all the details needed to make that call at 6 months out.   

It will snow at your house next January.

[RentonHill]

OMG

[Cloud]

44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not seeing the reload at all.  Keep in mind the GFS way overdoes temps for the Central Puget Sound.  We are in a trough for much of week two.

What trough? Even our jetty aren't even showing anything close. 

[Doinko]

East of the Cascades look very hot

 

[Deweydog]

Even after all the abuse it’s taken this spring/early summer, the GFS remains the most reasonable person in the room in terms of duration. Resilient.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

OMG

If this verified some station would probably outdo June 2021 for OR and WA state records.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

OMG

Looks like a good time for Tim in Toppenish. May could even go all out and check out Wapato, also.

[RentonHill]

and...scene

[Doinko]

Euro isn't as extreme West of the Cascades as the 00z run but East of the Cascades it's extremely hot.

[GobBluth]

So less of a double wave and more a sustained hot but not extreme pattern west of Cascades?

 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What trough? Even our jetty aren't even showing anything close. 

Jim's big trough is moving in at the end of the ECMWF run...

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like a good time for Tim in Toppenish. May could even go all out and check out Wapato, also.

ECMWF shows 80s in northern MN where we will be by the end of next weekend.  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

So less of a double wave and more a sustained hot but not extreme pattern west of Cascades?

 

Seems like it, at least a week of 90+ and mostly 95+ at Portland. 

[TacomaWx]

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What trough? Even our jetty aren't even showing anything close. 

And he says Jesses “lost it” sometimes I really wonder if he’s even looking at the same stuff we are. 

[GobBluth]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

The 500 mb pattern on Wednesday looks so much like last June.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Seems like it, at least a week of 90+ and mostly 95+ at Portland. 

Ya, i guess i hadnt seen too closely how badly the previous Euro runs had torched PDX. So i guess its slightly better for them but man east side just burns.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

12z seems slightly warmer than the 06z so far

And the winner is...?

[TacomaWx]

Looking like a best case scenario is 4 days in the low to mid 90s at this point here. Could end up with 5 or 6 over the course of next week if the euros right. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

CPC winter outlook is out. Looks like the type of pattern that would give Tim lots of snow.

I'm in the blue!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we'll be into the running backs after the next couple weeks.

[Omegaraptor]

I don’t think Bend has ever even seen 5 100+ days in one month before, let alone consecutively.

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I don’t think Bend has ever even seen 5 100+ days in one month before, let alone consecutively.

There's always time to make new history.