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Nickle and dimers who wants a change Feb 8-10th storm?


Madtown

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As Snowman noted in his blogs, this storm is coming from Japan and it rolled on through the center of Japan so if you extrapolate the 6-10 east Asian theory and also the LRC, this storm should hit the center of the nation.  LRC had this storm back in December going through S/C IL.  If I remember correctly, this storm was a big one that hit Japan and its looking rather impressive in the Pacific right now.  Models are taking baby steps and wont have a good handle on the wave until it gets closer to the shore.  Wouldn't be surprised if this continues trending bigger and wetter.

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DVN not too impressed:

 

 

 

SATURDAY...PASSING DISTURBANCE HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50+ PERCENT WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TOOLS SUPPORTS MOST LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW. HIGHS HAVE TRENDED UP AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT
AT THIS TIME ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS
DEPENDING ON SFC LOW TRACK. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEARING LATE WITH LIGHT
SNOW ENDING AND MINS MOST LOCATIONS PROBABLY AT LEAST 3 DEGREES TOO
LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS.
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As Snowman noted in his blogs, this storm is coming from Japan and it rolled on through the center of Japan so if you extrapolate the 6-10 east Asian theory and also the LRC, this storm should hit the center of the nation.  LRC had this storm back in December going through S/C IL.  If I remember correctly, this storm was a big one that hit Japan and its looking rather impressive in the Pacific right now.  Models are taking baby steps and wont have a good handle on the wave until it gets closer to the shore.  Wouldn't be surprised if this continues trending bigger and wetter.

 

"Another nickel dimer" in my best Bill Raftery voice (for anyone who watches college bball).

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LOT morning AFD:

 

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...

GOOD AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE ON MASS FIELDS REMAINS THE CASE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER JET
MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST AND ADVANCING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A QUICK-MOVING SORT OF HYBRID PACIFIC/CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS INTO THE
AREA. DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN GUIDANCE IN HOW IT EVOLVES THE LOW-
LEVEL FEATURES...WITH THE 00Z/06Z NAM BEING 10MB DEEPER THAN THE
00Z EC ON THE SURFACE WAVE...AND ACTUALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING A
DEEPENING TREND IN THE SFC WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE THE NAM CAN BE A BIT ROBUST ON DAY 3 IT SEEMS...THE
PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS QUITE STRONG AND
ITS ORIENTATION WOULD FAVOR A LOW TO AT LEAST HOLD ITS INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
SO AGAIN LEAN WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND
00Z GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS A MIDDLE GROUND QPF FORECAST.

THE IMPRESSIVE FEATURE WITH THIS IS THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAGNITUDE
AND ITS ADVECTION...DIRECTLY OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON GUIDANCE...AND IT TIGHTENS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO WHERE IT
WOULD SEEM TEMPORARY BANDING COULD BE A CONCERN. THE GFS ALSO WOULD
SUGGEST THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED AND GIVEN
A LIMITED RETURN FLOW PERIOD...WOULD EXPECT THE COLUMN TO BE COOL
ENOUGH TO PRESENT THIS AS A POSSIBLE CONCERN. SO HAVE GONE TOWARD
15:1 RATIOS IN INITIAL SNOW FORECAST. VORT MAGNITUDE USING
EMPIRICAL LEMO TECHNIQUE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW INCH STRIPE
OF SNOW SOMEWHERE...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE AS WE GET CLOSER...AS
DURATION OF SNOW COULD OVERALL BE LIMITED IF EARLY SATURATION IS
AN ISSUE. WHILE CONTINUED THE TREND TO INCH UP POPS...NOW WITH 70
PERCENTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IL ON SATURDAY. DID NOT GET FANCY
TRYING TO BREAK OUT MORNING VS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION WILL INEVITABLY BE ABLE TO BE ADDED IN TIME.

 

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Yeah, I think 1-3" is a good bet for a lot of people. DVN doesn't agree, but almost every model is saying it right now. They say too much limited moisture and too fast moving... But it really doesn't take that long to get an inch or two if you can get some moderate snow, which I bet we see with this.

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JB posted this pic regarding this system.  He's been riding the JMA all winter long and it has done well in long term forecasting 500mb pattern (troughs/ridges) but not so sure with storm systems.  In any event, this model showing the wave trying to go neg tilt in the Midwest.  We still have some time for models to digest data.  If we see any strengthening in the models come tonights 00z runs then I'd say the model is onto something.  We'll see if anything comes out of this.

 

 

 

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JB posted this pic regarding this system.  He's been riding the JMA all winter long and it has done well in long term forecasting 500mb pattern (troughs/ridges) but not so sure with storm systems.  In any event, this model showing the wave trying to go neg tilt in the Midwest.  We still have some time for models to digest data.  If we see any strengthening in the models come tonights 00z runs then I'd say the model is onto something.  We'll see if anything comes out of this.

Looking at the NAM, it certainly looks like it could be possible:

 

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NAM staying steady. This is not your typical moisture starved clipper as it originates from the Pacific NW so should hopefully be able to tap more moisture as it developes.

 

Dubuque Special according to that.

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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18z NAM still holding...would be nice to see this amp up some more in future runs.  Could be one of those classic hybrid Clippers but coming off the Pacific.

 

This will be a classic 20:1 + snow ratio systems.  The 522 thickness lines goes down to C IL and the 514 creeps into WI/IL border.  Talk about how high snow ratios this system can create.

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LOT

 

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL OF THESE PV ANOMALIES IS STILL EXPECTED TO  
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE PREVIOUS  
DISCUSSION MENTIONED...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SURFACE  
REFLECTION FROM THIS DISTURBANCE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
SUGGEST THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL BE QUITE POTENT.  
THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR PRODUCING AT  
LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE  
MESOSCALE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT ARE STILL HIGHLY  
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VERY STEEP MID  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...6.5-7.0 DEGREES C PER KM COULD DEVELOP ACROSS  
THE AREA AS THE BEST DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS  
SUCH...WHEREVER ANY BANDS OF GOOD FGEN SET UP...THERE COULD BE  
BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHER  
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO PICK OUT  
ANY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR THIS POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT. THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ DURING THE EVENT COULD LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED  
RATIOS UP AROUND 15-16 TO 1. FOLLOWING THIS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS  
COULD BE A 2 TO 4 INCH EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.  

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Well this system will probably get me over 60" for the season, but not much more.

 

1-3" in the grids here, About 1.5" in Wisconsin. 12km NAM.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The mother of all nickels is on our door step....no one seems to be excited. Final Call of 1.2 in Madison

 

Just another small snow system. 

 

18z NAM favors your area.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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