Discussion on Autumn 2022 and New Winter Outlooks Coming Out

[Niko]

Here we are folks, it is that time of the year again when the first Winter Outlooks pop up. I had some available time today and wanted to find a vid that did not go too deep into details (as we all know, its way too early), but just enough to give us all some idea of what some are thinking for this upcoming Winter season.  Lets all have fun discussing and sharing our thoughts and ideas throughout this period, until, Winter 2022-23 roars in. Hope we all get inundated this year!

Hope you enjoy this video:

 

 

[snowstorm83]

My prediction: LNK will receive more snow than last winter 

[OmahaSnowFan]

My prediction: epic snowfall, bitter cold, and a winter we've never seen before. Every winter weather site/forum since the beginning of dawn has basically said the same thing. See above video.

[Andie]

North Texas will see periods of sunny warm weather interrupted by cold, and/or cold and wet periods, with possible icing.  
 

Yeah. Good luck, buddy. 
I’ve yet to meet the met that can predict North Texas winters 2 weeks in advance much less 6 months!  

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

My prediction: LNK will receive more snow than last winter 

I’d hope so. You wouldn’t think we’d have 2 pathetic snow years in a row.  One big snowstorm would surpass all of last winters total.  

[Andie]

Scattered small rain clouds. Dropping some rain but doubt it will do any good.   
Ft Worth got skunked - as usual. 
104*

[snowstorm83]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I’d hope so. You wouldn’t think we’d have 2 pathetic snow years in a row.  One big snowstorm would surpass all of last winters total.  

Yeah it would be really unfortunate to break the least snowiest winter on record again....lol 

[Minny_Weather]

On 7/8/2022 at 1:52 PM, Niko said:

Here we are folks, it is that time of the year again when the first Winter Outlooks pop up. I had some available time today and wanted to find a vid that did not go too deep into details (as we all know, its way too early), but just enough to give us all some idea of what some are thinking for this upcoming Winter season.  Lets all have fun discussing and sharing our thoughts and ideas throughout this period, until, Winter 2022-23 roars in. Hope we all get inundated this year!

Hope you enjoy this video:

 

 

Wow, that outlook looks like the one from last year! And the year before that! And the year before that, and the year before that, and the year before that, and the year the internet was invented.

[Timmy Supercell]

Seemed like I had at least quota on snowfall last winter, I bet this one delivers a few more inches for spots.

Last winter was also a huge mixed bag of funky tricks. December was like +8-10 on Mean from average, January was -3, and February +2? One cold month in the middle of two warm ones. And butt load of winter time rainfall. 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Wow, that outlook looks like the one from last year! And the year before that! And the year before that, and the year before that, and the year before that, and the year the internet was invented.

I’ve started watching a few prediction videos and thought the same thing. I actually went back a year and the colors were in almost the exact same spots. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim Flowers talking a lot about the 3rd La Niña in a row winter coming up. Triple peak he calls it. The winter he finds that matches it is 2000-2001. That was an epic winter for snow and cold around here. It is still the most snow days our school district has had since I’ve been teaching, 7.
He will be talking more about it in future videos. One of my favorite winters also as our first child, Lindsay, was born in December of 2000. We have lots of pictures and videos of snow and snowstorms as she was a baby. She will be a senior this fall at The University of Nebraska at Kearney (UNK). Boy how time moves quickly. 

[Tom]

5 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Jim Flowers talking a lot about the 3rd La Niña in a row winter coming up. Triple peak he calls it. The winter he finds that matches it is 2000-2001. That was an epic winter for snow and cold around here. It is still the most snow days our school district has had since I’ve been teaching, 7.
He will be talking more about it in future videos. One of my favorite winters also as our first child, Lindsay, was born in December of 2000. We have lots of pictures and videos of snow and snowstorms as she was a baby. She will be a senior this fall at The University of Nebraska at Kearney (UNK). Boy how time moves quickly. 

December 2000-2001 was my 1st Winter away from home as it was my Freshman year in college at SIU down in Carbondale, IL.  I missed out on all the snows the hit the MW region up north, but we did manage to get a cold start to Winter down there which was unusual for downstate IL.  I remember walking to class and enjoying the snowfall several times during that winter.  If the CFSv2 is right, it is suggesting something similar with all the blocking along with an active STJ.  What is intriguing, is the amount of high lat blocking its been showing for weeks now and it's not the only global model indicating these trends.  Something to ponder on during height of Summer.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

December 2000-2001 was my 1st Winter away from home as it was my Freshman year in college at SIU down in Carbondale, IL.  I missed out on all the snows the hit the MW region up north, but we did manage to get a cold start to Winter down there which was unusual for downstate IL.  I remember walking to class and enjoying the snowfall several times during that winter.  If the CFSv2 is right, it is suggesting something similar with all the blocking along with an active STJ.  What is intriguing, is the amount of high lat blocking its been showing for weeks now and it's not the only global model indicating these trends.  Something to ponder on during height of Summer.

 

Good stuff @Tom  Always fun to dream about winter during these hot times. 

[james1976]

I dont remember how that winter was as a whole around here but I do remember December 2000 was epic. Storm train!

[snowstorm83]

December 2000 was notable for the consistency of well below average temperatures east of the Rockies, though there was never really an insane arctic plunge. Lincoln had the 3rd coldest December on record, only behind 1983 and 1909. 3rd coldest down in Memphis as well, and most impressively the temperature didn't hit 40 for 18 consecutive days (Dec 17-Jan 3). Very dry, with the most significant snowfall being 2" on New Years Eve. It seems like biggest extremes were centered over Iowa. DSM had the 2nd coldest Dec behind 1983 and picked up 30.3" of snow. 

Disclaimer: I was 1 years old at the time so this is based off NWS data 

[gabel23]

5 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

December 2000 was notable for the consistency of well below average temperatures east of the Rockies, though there was never really an insane arctic plunge. Lincoln had the 3rd coldest December on record, only behind 1983 and 1909. 3rd coldest down in Memphis as well, and most impressively the temperature didn't hit 40 for 18 consecutive days (Dec 17-Jan 3). Very dry, with the most significant snowfall being 2" on New Years Eve. It seems like biggest extremes were centered over Iowa. DSM had the 2nd coldest Dec behind 1983 and picked up 30.3" of snow. 

Disclaimer: I was 1 years old at the time so this is based off NWS data 

I was a junior in high school and remember that winter like it was yesterday. We had bitter cold arctic air and two blizzards with temps in the single digits. It was amazing. I had to keep my truck plugged in at night so it would start in the morning! The first of three storms hit early like Dec. 8th and we went week after week with snowstorms up until the arctic air lifted around x-mas. 

[Andie]

It was my 2nd winter at this house.   Lots of snow in DFW area.   I recall walking out on the golf course. No one had even touched the course.  We had snow over a foot deep in SW Tarrant Co, Tx. 
We’re due.   

[CentralNebWeather]

From Jim Flowers this morning leading up to the great winter of 2000-2001 in this area. He is predicting this to be another triple peak La Niña winter  I hope it verifies  

[OKwx2k4]

All signs do point to an "epic" reversal right over this heated death dome. 

Winter 2000-2001 was basically enough winter to beat 1997, 1998 and 1999

...before December 1. 

Another year of interest and comparison is 2008. 

I'll just say this: Humid fog here in July has always been a tell. Humid fog in a heatwave/drought, well...give me 6 mos and watch what this turns into. 

My oak tree actually started shedding leaves from heat stress today but with the humid fog, it smells like fall.

Another year of interest, 1975, simply for the weather patterns leading here over a longer cyclical span.

I think everyone will be ready for winter this time when it gets here. Lol.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, OKwx2k4 said:

All signs do point to an "epic" reversal right over this heated death dome. 

Winter 2000-2001 was basically enough winter to beat 1997, 1998 and 1999

...before December 1. 

Another year of interest and comparison is 2008. 

I'll just say this: Humid fog here in July has always been a tell. Humid fog in a heatwave/drought, well...give me 6 mos and watch what this turns into. 

My oak tree actually started shedding leaves from heat stress today but with the humid fog, it smells like fall.

Another year of interest, 1975, simply for the weather patterns leading here over a longer cyclical span.

I think everyone will be ready for winter this time when it gets here. Lol.

2000-2001 and 1975-76 were pretty bad in the PNW, but 2008 had the snowiest December on record in Portland. Either way, I'm hoping the heat there backs off!

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

December 2008 is the stuff of legends in the PNW. All other potentially historic events always get compared to that one. Nothing like snowstorm after snowstorm slamming a region that is not used to receiving multiple snowstorms in one winter season, let alone a two week time span. Such great memories. 

I didn't live in the area at the time, but from NWS public information statements it looks like my area had ~23" that month. And a foot of snow on the ground for Christmas! PDX never dropped below 20 surprisingly though, I guess the really cold air didn't make it there. SeaTac only seems to have recorded 13.9" though, maybe they were on the lower end around the Sound.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I lived in Redmond WA at the time, a little bit east from Seattle at about 500'. We had over two feet of snow on the ground at one point. Kept thinking the snow was going to stop but then I'd go and read the latest forecast and they'd be calling for even more. It was amazing.

That month is actually what I credit to igniting my passion for weather. I found this weather forum back in December of 2008 and, well, 14 years later and I still find myself getting wrapped up in model riding 16-day forecasts 4 times a day in the hopes I would get to experience another month like that again. 

Good stuff. My wife and I are both teachers. Of course we love it if a snow day is called. That winter of 2000-2001 we had 7 snow days.  A typical year for us is 2-5. Last winter no snow days or late starts, never has occurred before. Our superintendent doesn’t like to call snow days very often compared to some schools in our area. If I recall, there were other storms that winter that hit on weekends, or we would have had more days off. We had to make up the 2 extra days that winter, one at Easter Break and the other at the end of the school year. 

[OKwx2k4]

2008-09 was scary here because the cold was all over, the precip too, but never at the right times. Beautiful autumn, sloppy, hit or miss start to winter....Then in January 2009, the Gulf finally puked up a tropical blob of moisture at the right wrong time and "bang" the huge ice storm of 2009 is born. 

1975 is historic for the massive storm complexes that originated over TX and Oklahoma and of course the "November Witch of 75" that rewrote GLs shipping history and broke the nerve of what was left of the heart of the steel milling industry. 

It was known for its wrathful storms.

Researching October 2000 as a guide for how this goes out, its a crash. Hoping we get it earlier.

[Meatyorologist]

2008-09 was definitely partially responsible for my love for weather, but I had special interest even before then.

Flying into waist deep snow in Spokane was a sight for the ages. My seven year old brain had never seen anything like it.

[Phil]

Worth considering how strong the trade winds have been this summer.

Resembles something out of the 1970s.

 

[Grizzcoat]

DEC 2000 was epic at DSM-- snowiest ever (if you believe the COOP observer in 2000 ( NWS didn't officially measure snow at the airport (DSM) then, started in 2004-- other wise it was 2nd to 2009)  and 2nd coldest. (1983).  Either way - one hell of a winter month.

I doubt this will even come close to fruition as the oceans are still too warm- though cooling. But 3 in a row ( la nina)  is something to look at and be respected.

[OKwx2k4]

On 7/18/2022 at 10:24 PM, Phil said:

Worth considering how strong the trade winds have been this summer.

Resembles something out of the 1970s.

 

It looks like that chart has captured the bookends of a climactic era. So, do we do 1975-1980 in reverse? Mixed with 1936-41 in forward. Lol. In analog ideas, i think you get what I'm saying.

You used to do a lot of writing on the global circulations, I'd say they're changing, or about to, yes?

I believe we may have just left an era of climactic favor over the US. My thoughts, for what they're worth.

[OKwx2k4]

Also, @Phil....

Anyone still write or wonder about the day the QBO winds basically stopped completely? There are a lot of very very interesting things going on right now.

A pendulum always swings back.

Seven green Christmases sandwiched in between 2 brown summers says change is here.

From, myself to Jaster's region and to yours all share weather a lot. I think we are going to see some of the best interior US winters we have seen BEFORE our lives.

[Tom]

If there's one thing the CFSv2 model is "seeing"...it is undoubtedly the amount of High LAT Blocking in the Arctic regions and the Stout NE PAC ridge...

Heart of Autumn...

 

Heart of Winter...I Heart You...CFSv2....

[Andie]

On 7/21/2022 at 2:37 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

Also, @Phil....

Anyone still write or wonder about the day the QBO winds basically stopped completely? There are a lot of very very interesting things going on right now.

A pendulum always swings back.

Seven green Christmases sandwiched in between 2 brown summers says change is here.

From, myself to Jaster's region and to yours all share weather a lot. I think we are going to see some of the best interior US winters we have seen BEFORE our lives.

I hope No Tx gets a nibble out of this. 
We are seriously weary of heat.  

[Tom]

The CFSv2 keeps on suggesting a significant opportunity for a bonafide North American Winter....keep the positive trends comin'...Canada is inline for an extraordinarily LONG & COLD Autumn '22 thru Spring '23.  Something is Brewing.  If you haven't paid attention to the Winter in the Southern Hemisphere both Australia and South America are getting hit with very strong winter storms.  Is this a Precursor?   We shall see.

 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The CFSv2 keeps on suggesting a significant opportunity for a bonafide North American Winter....keep the positive trends comin'...Canada is inline for an extraordinarily LONG & COLD Autumn '22 thru Spring '23.  Something is Brewing.  If you haven't paid attention to the Winter in the Southern Hemisphere both Australia and South America are getting hit with very strong winter storms.  Is this a Precursor?   We shall see.

 

That doesn't look that bad for the PNW either

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That doesn't look that bad for the PNW either

Indeed, you’ll get your colder and stormy patterns.  If the waters in the NE PAC don’t get to close to the coastline, I’m pretty sure the PAC NW/B.C. have a good season coming.

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Indeed, you’ll get your colder and stormy patterns.  If the waters in the NE PAC don’t get to close to the coastline, I’m pretty sure the PAC NW/B.C. have a good season coming.

I'm hoping for something like 2016/17 since the drought in the West was busted with that and I had a lot of snow (for Portland at least), but I'm not sure how good it was in the Eastern U.S.

[tStacsh]

Is there where I come to get my hopes (hypes!) up just to be disappointed again?  Last 2 winters were awful (for winter lovers) in SW michigan.  I suspect more of the same.  Maybe I'll actually get a snowstorm this year?  it's been awhile.  Let me guess all the models that are discounted in the Summer for warm patterns are now in play when they show cold and snowy patterns 4-6 months out?  I'm gonna get drunk on bias in here this fall.  

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

The CFSv2 keeps on suggesting a significant opportunity for a bonafide North American Winter....keep the positive trends comin'...Canada is inline for an extraordinarily LONG & COLD Autumn '22 thru Spring '23.  Something is Brewing.  If you haven't paid attention to the Winter in the Southern Hemisphere both Australia and South America are getting hit with very strong winter storms.  Is this a Precursor?   We shall see.

 

Looks amazing. I mean really really amazing. Like a very long winter for everyone but the SW and far East/SE coast. 

[Andie]

Maybe Texas will make up it’s lack of rain !

Any comments on Fall ?

[Madtown]

Well the ferns are starting to die back and some deer who just got there summer coat are starting to grey out already. Interesting for sure. I could go for a nice long gorgeous fall!

[james1976]

I'm really hoping for a real Autumn this year. Seems like that hasn't happened in a while.

[Tom]

I read this interesting blog post this morning and would agree that the squirrels are quite aggressively digging up holes in my backyard.  In fact, the other day I saw one of the squirrels that live up in my trees with a peanut in his mouth trying to find a home for that nut.  

https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/squirrels-digging-through-gardens-is-this-a-sign-of-a-harsh-winter-ahead/

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

On 7/26/2022 at 2:02 PM, tStacsh said:

Is there where I come to get my hopes (hypes!) up just to be disappointed again?  Last 2 winters were awful (for winter lovers) in SW michigan.  I suspect more of the same.  Maybe I'll actually get a snowstorm this year?  it's been awhile.  Let me guess all the models that are discounted in the Summer for warm patterns are now in play when they show cold and snowy patterns 4-6 months out?  I'm gonna get drunk on bias in here this fall.  

Lock it in (again)! All you have to do is come here or to places like the Facebook page image I shared to see we’re all getting buried this winter and this is the year (finally) when the next massive global cooling/ice age is coming!

[Madtown]

10 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

10 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Lock it in (again)! All you have to do is come here or to places like the Facebook page image I shared to see we’re all getting buried this winter and this is the year (finally) when the next massive global cooling/ice age is coming!

Get those snowblowers ready!!!!

[snowstorm83]

On 8/4/2022 at 12:50 AM, OmahaSnowFan said:

Lock it in (again)! All you have to do is come here or to places like the Facebook page image I shared to see we’re all getting buried this winter and this is the year (finally) when the next massive global cooling/ice age is coming!

I think I saw that exact same map as far back as 2012-13 

[Niko]

[Tom]

19 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

I am by no means saying that the squirrels are predicting a cold/snowy winter.  But the article is wrong about animals not predicting weather -- even in the long range.  Veeries, a bird species, can predict hurricane season severity months in advance.  https://blog.nature.org/science/2018/09/26/this-bird-predicts-hurricanes-better-than-meteorologists/

I agree with you...I don't necessarily agree with their opinion about animals not being able to predict weather.  There is ample evidence out there suggesting how animals can predict LR wx patterns from their behavior.  I'm looking forward to this coming cold season....out of all the pre-season outlooks, this season has caught my attn early.

[OKwx2k4]

@both above...

There's no doubt in my mind animals can "signal" both short and longer-term weather changes. 

[Tom]

Alrighty then, here are some cooler wx thoughts as we close out the remainder of August.  My attention was drawn today up in the Arctic regions and the Baffin Bay area as the models continue to advertise what has been a common theme this entire Summer.  My gut feeling was spot on and the LRC continued to cycle throughout summer and we will finish Met Summer the same way we started it up in this region. 

It appears we will be seeing a quick transition towards Winter up in the Arctic as a cold wx pattern is poised to set up and usher in some early late Summer snows for this region.  #BuildTheNorthAmericanGlacier...the script to the movie will begin and the Arctic ice shield on this side of the Pole should reverse from its normal summer melt season.

0z GEFS...

Euro 10-day snowfall....

 

0z GEFS 500mb..."The North American Vortex"....

 

 

The latest EPS Weeklies suggesting a typical La Nina pattern to kick drive the snow season early and often for B.C. and the N Rockies of the U.S.  They should have a banner start to the ski season.  September is a month that brings some volatile wx across the Nation as we see Autumn CF's clash with Summer hanging on.  I'm looking forward to tracking systems this Autumn and eventually into Winter.  Who's ready???

[Tom]

The JMA seasonal came out today and it is suggesting the wet pattern to continue from the SW region into the Heartland/S Plains/GL's...pretty much covering the entire Sub Forum...

Temp/Precip...

 

 

September 500mb pattern...

 

 

October...I'm intrigued to see the NE PAC ridge and Blocking off the East Coast...

 

Temp...

November...Big Signal for a -NAO...the Ridge near the Aleutians isn't an ideal placement so something to keep an eye on as it could be a Big signal for a stout -PNA/SER...would be good for the PAC NW/N Rockies to get inundated by severe winter storms...

Temp...

[Tom]

I wanted to add some more commentary in terms of the JMA seasonal and focus in on the WPAC pattern that has been silent thus far during the warm season.  It appears nature will ignite an active pattern come next month, but esp OCT/NOV when re-curving Typhoons shall very well influence the North American pattern.  

OCT...albeit a teeny tiny hint of lower pressures over the Caribbean Sea, it suggests to me the GOM will be active and provide fuel to potential Tropical systems... 

 

The AN precip pattern in the GOM looks interesting as does the AN precip over the Baja of Mexico/AZ area....

 

 

NOV...Phase 2/3 pattern???  This could be a volatile month bc Phase 2 is cooler pattern for the East/South and Phase 3 is a signal for a Warm pattern for much of the Eastern CONUS.

[Hawkeye]

While I don't want summer to end anytime soon, I am kinda looking forward to winter and snow.  I've been shoveling the neighbor's driveway and sidewalk for twenty years (becoming less enjoyable each year as I get older), but she died this summer.  Knowing I will now only have to shovel my own driveway and sidewalk should allow me to enjoy the snow and cold a bit more.