Discussion on Autumn 2022 and New Winter Outlooks Coming Out

[Tom]

I wanted to add some more commentary in terms of the JMA seasonal and focus in on the WPAC pattern that has been silent thus far during the warm season.  It appears nature will ignite an active pattern come next month, but esp OCT/NOV when re-curving Typhoons shall very well influence the North American pattern.  

OCT...albeit a teeny tiny hint of lower pressures over the Caribbean Sea, it suggests to me the GOM will be active and provide fuel to potential Tropical systems... 

 

The AN precip pattern in the GOM looks interesting as does the AN precip over the Baja of Mexico/AZ area....

 

 

NOV...Phase 2/3 pattern???  This could be a volatile month bc Phase 2 is cooler pattern for the East/South and Phase 3 is a signal for a Warm pattern for much of the Eastern CONUS.

[Hawkeye]

While I don't want summer to end anytime soon, I am kinda looking forward to winter and snow.  I've been shoveling the neighbor's driveway and sidewalk for twenty years (becoming less enjoyable each year as I get older), but she died this summer.  Knowing I will now only have to shovel my own driveway and sidewalk should allow me to enjoy the snow and cold a bit more.

[Tom]

The latest JMA weeklies are showing a pattern we have not seen in a few years for the heartland of the nation to open up Met Autumn.  Doesn't it seem like Septembers have produced endless summer for the past number of years?  Outside of 2020, I remember '18 & '19 were blow torch years.

 

Well, maybe this time we could finally enjoy a more seasonal start to Autumn instead of the unseasonable warmer starts.  Both the CFSv2/JMA are in the same camp overall...you can pretty much start waving Good Bye to Summer...

Week 2...

Temp...

 

 

Precip...very wet pattern setting up from the SW to the GL's...

 

Week 3-4...You can start by saying "Hello to Autumn"...

 

 

Temp...large area of cool temps for the eastern CONUS...

Precip...this is probably the most important signal in my book as the Monsoon keeps on driving moisture farther N across the central Rockies.  Bodes well for Lake Powell and Lake Mead...

[westMJim]

Here is the updated CPC outlook for September

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php

 the updated CPC outlook for meteorological fall

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

And for the fun of it the long rage guess for meteorological winter

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

Lets see how this all plays out.

 

[Tom]

Woah, to see all 3 global climate models agree on the overall 500mb pattern for the start of Met Autumn is rare to see.  Needless to say, I'm sure many on here are ready for Autumn weather...

 

 

Euro Weeklies from yesterday...

 

 

The record setting Monsoon of 2022 shall continue...the locals around the valley are starting to talk about how this is the worst Monsoon season they have seen in decades.

[OmahaSnowFan]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2022-2023-season-first-look-united-states-europe-fa/

[Andie]

Well heck!   Back into the warm dry Netherlands.

[Tom]

We are fast approaching the unofficial end to Summer and welcome the long holiday weekend coming up next week.  As a kid growing up, I would always enjoy road trips with the family during the Labor Day holiday.  I remember some good memories of road trips up into the Northwoods of Wisconsin and also the Wisconsin Dells area.  If your planning a trip anywhere from I-80 on north, it appears that some late season warmth and dry conditions will prevail.  Perfect outdoor weather for our boaters, anglers and outdoorsman.  Not soo much for those down south as a wetter/cooler pattern sets up.

 

@ClintonThe Ozarks may be a bit wet...are you planning a trip down there? 

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies show the warmer look to open up Sept but then reverse this during the 2nd/3rd week of the month.

Week 2...

Wet look shaping up for the southern half of the Sub...

 

Temps...

Week 3-4...the NE PAC ridge sets up...

 

The Monsoon pattern continues in the 4 corners region and into the Plains/Upper MW.  Could be a sign that we'll see some strong Autumn Troughs coming down out of Canada.

 

Temps...Seasonal/BN temp pattern for the eastern CONUS...

 

I've got a keen eye on the SST's up in the N PAC region, esp the NE PAC...of late, a significant warming of the waters are now starting to hug the coastline.  Could be a big clue how the wx pattern sets up for OCT/NOV and IF we see the NE PAC Ridge as a dominant wx pattern.  On the other side of the Continent, there also appears to be a signal for a Ridge pattern off the eastern Canadian shores (-NAO???).  Interesting stuff setting up next month.

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Flowers just posted a video on F-Book about the upcoming winter and snow outlook. He didn't exactly give a forecast for snow but you can tell he's pumped up about what he found in studying the SOI. Basically the big winters for snow here in IA/NE/ S.MN are when you have a running LA NINA and it goes Neutral to slightly El Ninoish and than jumps back to LA NINA.-- sometime between say late summer/early Fall and late Winter/ early SPring. He specifically mentions 1974-75 (near 60" for both DSM and OMA) and 1880-1881 (apparently a big winter but I couldn't find snow data for those years). But what struck me is he idea also works for 09-10  (69" at DSM-- only 3" off the all time record of 1911-1912 ( I  don't have data for those years for SOI)  1961-62 also fits his pattern (64.1" at DSM). and also 1981-82 at 62.9 for DSM. 81-82 at MSP was 95"--- though his idea doens't pan out as well the further N you in the Upper Midwest as MSP doens't seem to fit the pattern as well as OMA and DSM etc.  He seems legit excited about his idea and the above data etc seems to back him up. Either way- quite interesting.

 

Here is a link to the SOI-

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/soi

SOI forecast-

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

and for those that use F-book-- his video-

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=896545647990175

[Clinton]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

We are fast approaching the unofficial end to Summer and welcome the long holiday weekend coming up next week.  As a kid growing up, I would always enjoy road trips with the family during the Labor Day holiday.  I remember some good memories of road trips up into the Northwoods of Wisconsin and also the Wisconsin Dells area.  If your planning a trip anywhere from I-80 on north, it appears that some late season warmth and dry conditions will prevail.  Perfect outdoor weather for our boaters, anglers and outdoorsman.  Not soo much for those down south as a wetter/cooler pattern sets up.

 

@ClintonThe Ozarks may be a bit wet...are you planning a trip down there? 

No trip this weekend I was down there 2 weeks ago and they need the rain badly.  Ready to do some camping and fishing through Sept and Oct, looks like the temps will cooperate.

[CentralNebWeather]

7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Flowers just posted a video on F-Book about the upcoming winter and snow outlook. He didn't exactly give a forecast for snow but you can tell he's pumped up about what he found in studying the SOI. Basically the big winters for snow here in IA/NE/ S.MN are when you have a running LA NINA and it goes Neutral to slightly El Ninoish and than jumps back to LA NINA.-- sometime between say late summer/early Fall and late Winter/ early SPring. He specifically mentions 1974-75 (near 60" for both DSM and OMA) and 1880-1881 (apparently a big winter but I couldn't find snow data for those years). But what struck me is he idea also works for 09-10  (69" at DSM-- only 3" off the all time record of 1911-1912 ( I  don't have data for those years for SOI)  1961-62 also fits his pattern (64.1" at DSM). and also 1981-82 at 62.9 for DSM. 81-82 at MSP was 95"--- though his idea doens't pan out as well the further N you in the Upper Midwest as MSP doens't seem to fit the pattern as well as OMA and DSM etc.  He seems legit excited about his idea and the above data etc seems to back him up. Either way- quite interesting.

 

Here is a link to the SOI-

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/soi

SOI forecast-

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

and for those that use F-book-- his video-

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=896545647990175

I love Jim’s enthusiasm. That was fun to watch. Hope it verifies. 

[hawkstwelve]

9 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Flowers just posted a video on F-Book about the upcoming winter and snow outlook. He didn't exactly give a forecast for snow but you can tell he's pumped up about what he found in studying the SOI. Basically the big winters for snow here in IA/NE/ S.MN are when you have a running LA NINA and it goes Neutral to slightly El Ninoish and than jumps back to LA NINA.-- sometime between say late summer/early Fall and late Winter/ early SPring. He specifically mentions 1974-75 (near 60" for both DSM and OMA) and 1880-1881 (apparently a big winter but I couldn't find snow data for those years). But what struck me is he idea also works for 09-10  (69" at DSM-- only 3" off the all time record of 1911-1912 ( I  don't have data for those years for SOI)  1961-62 also fits his pattern (64.1" at DSM). and also 1981-82 at 62.9 for DSM. 81-82 at MSP was 95"--- though his idea doens't pan out as well the further N you in the Upper Midwest as MSP doens't seem to fit the pattern as well as OMA and DSM etc.  He seems legit excited about his idea and the above data etc seems to back him up. Either way- quite interesting.

 

Here is a link to the SOI-

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/soi

SOI forecast-

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

and for those that use F-book-- his video-

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=896545647990175

Most of those years were kind of lame in the snowfall department for FSD but ooooh boy, February 1962 looks like it was a doozy. 48 inches of snow fell that month (8.6" is normal). 18 inches fell on 2/17 and 14 inches fell on 2/18. Closing in on 3 feet of snow in two days. That's crazy! That month also included a high of -2 on 2/27 and a low of an absolutely frigid -31 on 2/28. Bone chilling cold right there.

[Clinton]

Euro weeklies indicating an early frost for some and has a chilly look for most on here as we get into the first week of October.

[james1976]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Euro weeklies indicating an early frost for some and has a chilly look for most on here as we get into the first week of October.

My God can we please actually have a classic Autumn?

[Tom]

16 hours ago, Clinton said:

Euro weeklies indicating an early frost for some and has a chilly look for most on here as we get into the first week of October.

What's interesting about this map is the expansive and deep snow cover over Canada.  I was going to comment on this the other day when I noticed the AN precip anomalies the CFSv2 is showing for the month of SEP which concurs with the Euro Weeklies.  Not to mention, but the Intermountain West appears to have a great start to their Snow season.  While I was out in Park City, UT the other week, I had this feeling inside that this winter is going to be fantastic for the Wasatch Mtn's in Utah.  They didn't have a good year last year and I'm really rooting for the entire region to get blasted.  I'd love to see a huge snow season for UT/CO/CA and the 4 corners.  Mother Nature is going to fill up those lakes!

 

[Tom]

About the time the sun sets over the North Pole (9/21), a new LRC pattern begins to develop way up in the northern lats.  What do the Euro/CFSv2 weeklies indicate at this range??  Pretty similar 500mb pattern across N.A.

 

[Clinton]

8 hours ago, james1976 said:

My God can we please actually have a classic Autumn?

I hope so too fall is my favorite season and October is my favorite month.  I'm ready for hoodies and bonfires!

[OKwx2k4]

So, chances are rapidly increasing that we do not actually flip the La Niña. If this happens, will be hard to call a snowy winter for many.

Thoughts?

Hard to believe its technically fall after having a mini-drought and dead yard all season long.

[Niko]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-snowfall-predictions-long-range-models-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[Tom]

Curious to see what today's Euro Weeklies and new Euro Seasonal show later today.  I'll post some maps prob tomorrow sometime.

[weatherfan2012]

On 9/3/2022 at 5:53 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

So, chances are rapidly increasing that we do not actually flip the La Niña. If this happens, will be hard to call a snowy winter for many.

Thoughts?

Hard to believe its technically fall after having a mini-drought and dead yard all season 

Larry Cosgrove seems excited about the winter hopefully his streak keeps up as he done pretty good this summer and good in seeing the less active season tropical wise even those he was going for average he was way more right then the majority this season.

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Larry Cosgrove seems excited about the winter hopefully his streak keeps up as he done pretty good this summer and good in seeing the less active season tropical wise even those he was going for average he was way more right then the majority this season.

An anomalous year would be a Niña that behaves as a Niño. 

He's good at what he does. 

Would have to go back maybe to 2013(?) I think to see a dearth in Atl tropical activity.

Its just that he's one who forecasted a Niño if i recall. There's still too much cold water in the S. PAC feeding this along with atmospheric reinforcement.

 

[weatherfan2012]

5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

An anomalous year would be a Niña that behaves as a Niño. 

He's good at what he does. 

Would have to go back maybe to 2013(?) I think to see a dearth in Atl tropical activity.

Its just that he's one who forecasted a Niño if i recall. There's still too much cold water in the S. PAC feeding this along with atmospheric reinforcement.

 

Yeah I'm not sure why he went with the nino with little to no support could be that he was following data that was hinting at it dissipating.another thing to and Dave Tolleris WxRisk.com is even worse in this regard they don't like to admint they were wrong on there ideas it seems to ofton they go with there ideas and there stubborn to change or acceap.which is human nature we are not great in accaping defeat.I think mostly because we want to beleave we have all the answers when in fact there still so much we really don't know and it hard to accept at times.this is a strange enso set up maybe a hard year for  winter outlooks giving the complexities of it this year and I really don't think models Data have a good handel on it which adds insult to injury.

[Niko]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-cooling-forecast-winter-2022-2023-influence-united-states-europe-fa/

[Andie]

79* right now.  43% humidity.  
Real nice evening here.  
The air seems fresher than the usual late summer dust/allergens.

[Tom]

Well, I think most of you on here will enjoy these maps from the latest JMA seasonal.  If this model is onto something, it is absolutely seeing a ton of high lat blocking during late Autumn into the start of met Winter.  Lets dive into the data...

OCT...

 

Temps...AN for the Plains and seasonal for the Upper MW/MW/GL's....precip looks normal for pretty much the entire Sub...

NOV...this is when things get interesting...Bigly -NAO coupled with a SW ridge???

 

 

Temps/Precip... I think the model is not seeing enough cold but you can see the "corridor" of normal temps east of the Rockies...AN precip for the GL's and northern tier of US...active Northern Stream Jet...

 

 

Then, this is when the Almighty -NAO can really usher in Winter when it counts!  Man, this is an eye opening 500mb pattern for everyone east of the Rockies.  I love the ridge just west of Cali and the MASSIVE Greenland Block.  Inside Sliders????  I can see that happening given this 500mb pattern off the west coast.  We haven't anything close to this since DEC '09 or '10....I hope this model is onto something and "sees" the blocking that it is advertising.  The flip from last months run for the month of NOV is notable as it also had the -NAO but didn't have the SW ridge.

 

 

Temps/Precip...again, I don't think the model is showing enough colder temps for the CONUS but you can get an idea of the "corridor" of where the colder temps should be...

 

Very active N Stream and Rockies will have a bountiful start to the Snow Season..there is a pocket of AN precip in Plains and into MW/GL's...Canada is going to have a Massive Glacier being built early and often starting in OCT.  Things are looking very promising and we'll leave it at that.

[Tom]

CFSv2....here we go with the -NAO...there is a BIG LR signal I rely on that exemplifies this to be a real possibility...

 

10mb Strat warming blossoming over Iceland...not only at 10mb, but at 30mb and 50mb levels...if there is this much warming at all layers of the atmosphere, I will be shocked if there is no -NAO in OCT.  I'm fully anticipating this Block to develop as we enter the month of OCT when the LRC evolves.  What usually happens in OCT cycles in DEC...will it work this year???

 

 

[gabel23]

Winter outlook also came out today. Looks pretty much like your typical La Nina year. 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Winter outlook also came out today. Looks pretty much like your typical La Nina year. 

Will be interesting to see what happens if we transition to an Enso Neutral.  Jim Flowers is excited for the winter, if you've seen his videos on Facebook about a 3rd year La Nina.

[james1976]

8 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Will be interesting to see what happens if we transition to an Enso Neutral.  Jim Flowers is excited for the winter, if you've seen his videos on Facebook about a 3rd year La Nina.

3 La Nina's in a row is rare. Definitely intriguing. Really hope we all can enjoy a real winter but man, these longgggggg summers/ no fall thing is becoming a drag. I know its only mid Sept and still summer but I just assume it's gonna be 85 on Halloween Hope it's not. Still 60s in my grids next Wednesday-on.....so I'll take that and run.

[Tom]

The latest Euro Weeklies are coming in and bring the data through end of OCT.  First Flakes could be flying for the Upper MW mid OCT...@hawkstwelve @Madtownmay be the 1st?  Actually, I'll be the first to say that @Madtownsee's his first flakes by the 15th of OCT.

 

I Love, Love, Love seeing the run to run consistency of a Banner start to the Snow Season for the Inter Mountain West...nice to see the Plains with a hint of snow in late OCT.  Needless to say, there is some rather interesting data coming in among the global models.

 

Entire 45-day run...

[OKwx2k4]

I think we are all ready for winter. 100 degree day coming up to end summer will be enough, just in case i thought I missed it. Lol..

Great maps to see, Tom.

The great brown summer of '22 is finally over.

[OKwx2k4]

Adding...

  I don't see much change here over the next 4 weeks while this drought-anchored heat ridge-dome of hades hangs tough. 

[Clinton]

Let's hope this doesn't verify.

[Andie]

20 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Adding...

  I don't see much change here over the next 4 weeks while this drought-anchored heat ridge-dome of hades hangs tough. 

Yeah. 96* today.  And 6 more days just like it until we finally hit a high of 89* !

SO! Tired of this heat.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Jim put out his winter forecast for Omaha 

[Tom]

The Stratospheric warming over Eurasia during the past 2+ weeks is going to be a Big clue for the month of OCT and how fast or slow the snow cover advances across Russia.  I'm curious to see what Judah Cohen has to say as we head deeper into Autumn.  The animation below suggests a very strong Eurasia High Pressure during the month of OCT and that signals very cold air to brew in the region.  Let's see if this LR clue has any validation.

 

[gabel23]

Well I guess the farmers almanac for the win of course! 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/farmers-almanac-declares-north-central-110026276.html

[Tom]

Is this a Sign of the Cross???  #ChristConsciousness

Woah, this tripped me out this morning...DEC to Remember for Arizona???

[Madtown]

How things looking for up this way havent paid attention yet. COLD N SNOWY I hope!

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Madtown said:

How things looking for up this way havent paid attention yet. COLD N SNOWY I hope!

Where are you located?

[Mr Marine Layer]

On 9/22/2022 at 8:42 PM, gabel23 said:

Well I guess the farmers almanac for the win of course! 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/farmers-almanac-declares-north-central-110026276.html

That would be colder and snowier than last winter.

[jaster220]

On 9/16/2022 at 12:44 AM, james1976 said:

3 La Nina's in a row is rare. Definitely intriguing. Really hope we all can enjoy a real winter but man, these longgggggg summers/ no fall thing is becoming a drag. I know its only mid Sept and still summer but I just assume it's gonna be 85 on Halloween Hope it's not. Still 60s in my grids next Wednesday-on.....so I'll take that and run.

Wasn't it just 3 yrs ago Chicago had a snowstorm at Halloween? It's not always summer, tho I would rather it be nice at Halloween instead of Christmas and NY's like lately. 

[jaster220]

Nina's have delivered some really good Decembers here in Detroit. Including the all-time 2nd biggest snow on record back on 12-1-74. My current locale likely did very well per regional reports off the NOWdata website. The epicenter was near here with DTW at 19.1" and UofM Ann Arbor scoring 20". What a way to start your MET winter, eh? Ahhhh..that 70's Show. After a pair of personal duds, I'm ready for a legit winter again. As always, promising signs and signals don't guarantee the goods get delivered but here's to hoping I don't have to wait until February to get my first storm again. Niko (hey Buddy!) will tell you nature's going to do whatever it wants to, but once in a while the dice do come up with boxcars. Every autumn hope springs eternal for the upcoming snow season! But first, we need to be tracking some autumn windstorms and even a November powerhouse would be awesome. Hoping we all score a share the wealth winter. 

[james1976]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Wasn't it just 3 yrs ago Chicago had a snowstorm at Halloween? It's not always summer, tho I would rather it be nice at Halloween instead of Christmas and NY's like lately. 

I can't remember regarding the snowstorm but so far this early Fall has been nice and fall-like weather so I'm happy with that.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Yuck. Steady or expanding drought across the Plains through the end of the year. Just can't break the pattern.

[gabel23]

16 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yuck. Steady or expanding drought across the Plains through the end of the year. Just can't break the pattern.

Just hard to do now that we’re entering the winter months. Obviously we’re gonna receive less liquid precip this time of the year. We need some sort of moisture this fall that’s for sure. 

[Tom]

BAMWx's take on snowfall using their Top Analogs...

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

BAMWx's take on snowfall using their Top Analogs...

List of Analog seasons by any chance? That looks like classic Nina to my eyes.