Discussion on Autumn 2022 and New Winter Outlooks Coming Out

[Tom]

The new Euro Seasonal came in the other day, and I must say, ya'll ready???

OCT....carbon copy of the JMA weeklies....see my post in OCT thread....

 

PAC Jet en fuego to deliver the "goods"...AN precip in the Rockies is eye candy and for Cali...

 

 

NOV...Hello Greenland Block...Inside Sliders???

 

 

You can get an idea of where there will be regions of colder air....this model is terrible at seeing BN temps in the LR...heck, look at Alaska, there is just one or two teeny tiny blips of BN temps....ummm, ya...you really think that ends up being correct...I think not.

 

DEC...this doesn't need much explaining...Please verify...

[Tom]

Impressive run off the Euro Weeklies last evening for the opening weeks of NOV...

 

Before then, however...signs of a possible window of opportunity for a period of Indian Summer for the later part of OCT.  Maybe a warm Halloween for some??  Would be a nice reprieve from the early onslaught of cooler weather for those who will need to start doing some yardwork and the Fall clean up begins.

 

[jaster220]

May this be storm warning headlines in 2 months 

[OKwx2k4]

I don't see the south getting a true reprieve in any of those patterns. Cold fronts proving to be weak and the omega block seems to stay in the wrong place.

My honest 2c worth. I just don't honestly see much interest down here til fall is gone.

Looks like a blast up north and probably excitement for autumn everywhere.

[Clinton]

I'm not big on analog based forecast but Joe D'Aleo posted this in regards to having 3 consecutive La Ninas.  The cold matches up well with the pattern we are having and are forecasted to have the next week or so, the LRC would suggest when this part of the pattern returns in late Nov or Dec artic air will spill into the  middle part of the country.  I would like to see precipitation analogs with this but he hasn't posted any yet, right now imo it looks VERY dry unless you live around the lakes.

The IRI model suite suggests a La Nina this winter.

This would be the 3rd successive La Nina. Two prior 3 year La Ninas were the mirror opposite.

1998/99, 1998/2000, 2000/01 ended with a very cold November and December and cold winter.

1973/74, 1974/75, 1975/76 ended with a warmer central and east cold west and Canada.

Focusing on La Ninas with warm water NPAC is colder.

The preliminary summer based statistical blend is very much like the WB forecast with cold biased central. New inputs are arriving daily - so more to follow.

 

Archived Posts

[jaster220]

@Clinton

Thanks for sharing that from Joe D.

Ofc, I'm in The Lakes and in those (2) analogs are at least (3) historic months for this region - Dec '74, Jan '99, & Dec '00

There are also some gross duds in the mix, lol.

Torn on buying into analogs too, since they've become randomly absent when expectations are high.

[Iceresistance]

 

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies from yesterday painting a strong indication that there will be an enhanced jet stream over the southern US for Week 2 and the West Coast folks.

 

Week 3-4...Boy, that Greenland Block...I see that Beauty of a West-Based Block...this is exactly where it developed and cycled over and over again last Oct thru this past Summer!  Who says the weather doesn't cycle?  A repeat scenario this next cold season could indicate another Big clue for a -NAO for longer periods.

 

Temps...looking out into the first couple weeks of NOV, most of the Nation appears to have seasonal temps except for the Upper MW and the central Plains.  

 

 

Precip...Inter-Mountain West looks bountiful and a sliver into the central Plains/Upper MW....I assume that we will begin to see the quintessential La Nina pattern as an active N Stream develops.

 

[OKwx2k4]

19 hours ago, Tom said:

The JMA weeklies from yesterday painting a strong indication that there will be an enhanced jet stream over the southern US for Week 2 and the West Coast folks.

 

Week 3-4...Boy, that Greenland Block...I see that Beauty of a West-Based Block...this is exactly where it developed and cycled over and over again last Oct thru this past Summer!  Who says the weather doesn't cycle?  A repeat scenario this next cold season could indicate another Big clue for a -NAO for longer periods.

 

Temps...looking out into the first couple weeks of NOV, most of the Nation appears to have seasonal temps except for the Upper MW and the central Plains.  

 

 

Precip...Inter-Mountain West looks bountiful and a sliver into the central Plains/Upper MW....I assume that we will begin to see the quintessential La Nina pattern as an active N Stream develops.

 

Starting to believe we may see cycles of something unfamiliar in recent years....

Split-flow and phasing. 

This winter looks near crazy historic even without la Nina as a factor. 

Major mets are teaching about polar blasts and cold waves already. Thats pretty much something big right there.

Another caveat...What's going to happen is the CP enso warming as we go is going to take the show at times. 

If a cycle and attendant storms linger here for 4-5 days in October after a drought....

Well, big flip is all i can say. 

[Andie]

As Texas looks ahead to a beautiful Fall we haven’t forgotten we must stay aware of winter’s issues.  With that, Texas’ power leadership has a new “sheriff.”  Let’s hope they’re building up to meet our increase in population   

A new CEO of Texas power grid manager aims to rebuild trust as another winter approaches

"So we continue to be tested, we continue to pass those tests," said Pablo Vegas, the new head of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. He said reliability is key to restoring public trust in the state's power grid.

-Fox weather 

[Iceresistance]

18 minutes ago, Andie said:

As Texas looks ahead to a beautiful Fall we haven’t forgotten we must stay aware of winter’s issues.  With that, Texas’ power leadership has a new “sheriff.”  Let’s hope they’re building up to meet our increase in population   

A new CEO of Texas power grid manager aims to rebuild trust as another winter approaches

"So we continue to be tested, we continue to pass those tests," said Pablo Vegas, the new head of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. He said reliability is key to restoring public trust in the state's power grid.

-Fox weather 

FINALLY! Someone that may know how to fix the Texas Power grid! I've heard that ERCOT may have gotten purged because of the fiasco from the February 2021 Extreme Snow and Ice, and the close call with the Summer of 2022 extreme heat. 

[Andie]

9 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

FINALLY! Someone that may know how to fix the Texas Power grid! I've heard that ERCOT may have gotten purged because of the fiasco from the February 2021 Extreme Snow and Ice, and the close call with the Summer of 2022 extreme heat. 

I hope they chose well, both the exits and hiring.   Population has really grown. A lot of utility demand with all these new homes being built with west coast refugees and even some from the migrants renting, passing through, etc. 

Everyone is hoping for an average winter. No super cold events, but I’m hearing we may be disappointed. 

Low of 69 tonight. The front will reach DFW area around noon.
Morning rain.  Hoping it pours! 
 

[Tom]

Joey D's model using SEP #'s.......

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Joey D's model with Sept data using SEP #'s.......

Bastardi seems to think the MJO will head into the null phase and then emerge into phase 8 and 1.  That could make for a very cold Dec if that happens.  The GFS might be starting to trend that way.

[Tom]

Lookout for some major blocking to hold and develop in NOV...something is brewing up in the STRAT...

 

 

I'm targeting a storm to track over the central SUB between 10/31 - 11/3 with a classic winter storm "look" to it...BSR suggesting a potentially interesting set up.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Joey D's model using SEP #'s.......

Classic! Just add moisture..boom!

Have to admit. Between the early freeze, the awesome color show here, and the very favorable history for triple-Ninas, I'm getting stoked at the chances of a good winter here in far SE corner of The Mitt. 

As I commented on when @Clintono shared D'aleos outlook, this region normally does well in 2 out 3 winters. 

Of the current cycle, first one was a nothing-burger, last winter only slightly better (Lansing did good-they we're ground zero). Perhaps this season Ma Nature makes up for the last two?

[Andie]

We did get our morning rain but it was light.  More chances later today.  
Cloudy, 67* at 11:30 and that’s nice. 
The change is here.  

[Clinton]

Teleconnections update for the rest of Oct.

MJO heading to the null phase:

The AO:

NAO

PNA 

WPO would suggest we may have trouble keeping the EPO negative.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Teleconnections update for the rest of Oct.

MJO heading to the null phase:

The AO:

NAO

PNA 

WPO would suggest we may have trouble keeping the EPO negative.

One should remark at the large amount of spread after the 29th. 

[Clinton]

46 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

One should remark at the large amount of spread after the 29th. 

Lots going on there, it's hard to say how November will go.

[Tom]

Both the CFSv2 and JMA Seasonal agree on the overall 500mb pattern for N.A. during the month of NOV...Hello Greenland Block!

 

 

 

 

[gimmesnow]

Time for me to live up to my username. People in charge of AV say they are aiming for a mid november opening, and here's the weekly. This is so weird, usually when I buy a new snowboard or something I completely Murphy's Law the winter and it looks like things might be ok.

 

[jaster220]

39 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Time for me to live up to my username. People in charge of AV say they are aiming for a mid november opening, and here's the weekly. This is so weird, usually when I buy a new snowboard or something I completely Murphy's Law the winter and it looks like things might be ok.

 

LOL, I know what you mean

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Both the CFSv2 and JMA Seasonal agree on the overall 500mb pattern for N.A. during the month of NOV...Hello Greenland Block!

 

 

 

 

From a "going by memory" standpoint of at least 4 decades worth of autumns, this one most definitely has "the feel" of an early onset of winter. Could be some real action in Nov if we can get some moist systems finally.

[Tom]

If this October is any early indication of what remains to be seen come the start of met Winter, then maybe Accuweather is on the right track in terms of DEC temps over the southern U.S.  IMHO, this does fit my early thoughts on how DEC will play out but I would like to see more cold over the PAC NW/N Rockies as I think the arctic air will bottle up over W NAMER and bleed south in DEC.  There's good indication that the developing Long Term Long Wave Ridge over E Canada/Greenland will continue and allow for early season cold to head south into the Lower 48.

 

Last DEC temps...

 

Accuweather's thoughts....

 

 

The JMA seasonal...this model has been steadfast on the expansive ridging in NE Canda/Greenland, however, its seeing a strong trough pounding the NW PAC.  This is a valid solution so something to bear in mind as we see the winter season begin

 

 

DEC Temps...depending on how the LRC evolves the next few weeks, I would imagine that we see some warmth early on in DEC and then a complete flip by Mid/Late DEC.  I'm really excited about having a good holiday season but as always, not everyone will benefit across our Sub.  Let's see where the models take us into next month and how the new pattern continues to evolve.

 

 

 

DEC precip...very active West Coast and central/northern U.S...

[Doinko]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

If this October is any early indication of what remains to be seen come the start of met Winter, then maybe Accuweather is on the right track in terms of DEC temps over the southern U.S.  IMHO, this does fit my early thoughts on how DEC will play out but I would like to see more cold over the PAC NW/N Rockies as I think the arctic air will bottle up over W NAMER and bleed south in DEC.  There's good indication that the developing Long Term Long Wave Ridge over E Canada/Greenland will continue and allow for early season cold to head south into the Lower 48.

 

Last DEC temps...

 

Accuweather's thoughts....

 

 

The JMA seasonal...this model has been steadfast on the expansive ridging in NE Canda/Greenland, however, its seeing a strong trough pounding the NW PAC.  This is a valid solution so something to bear in mind as we see the winter season begin

 

 

DEC Temps...depending on how the LRC evolves the next few weeks, I would imagine that we see some warmth early on in DEC and then a complete flip by Mid/Late DEC.  I'm really excited about having a good holiday season but as always, not everyone will benefit across our Sub.  Let's see where the models take us into next month and how the new pattern continues to evolve.

 

 

 

DEC precip...very active West Coast and central/northern U.S...

I think the EPS was also showing the GOA ridge position in a good place for us in the late November to early December timeframe. Maybe the PNW will see something good then

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think the EPS was also showing the GOA ridge position in a good place for us in the late November to early December timeframe. Maybe the PNW will see something good then

Ya, I like where you sit in the PAC NW...early start for your Winter for sure...

[tStacsh]

We haven't had a real winter in 7 years in SMI.  Signs are pointing at a decent winter this year.  Hope it comes true for once.  Stormier pattern the last few weeks.  Needs to continue through December at least.  

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, tStacsh said:

We haven't had a real winter in 7 years in SMI.  Signs are pointing at a decent winter this year.  Hope it comes true for once.  Stormier pattern the last few weeks.  Needs to continue through December at least.  

You'd have to qualify that statement a bit. If I go strictly by total snowfall, 5 of 6 winters from 13-14 onward were AN down along 94 (the most S of SMI), including some epic CAT-4 storms and the all-time worst winter on record. I realize GR was sidelined for much of that, but not like zero winter was had across all of SMI. 

[tStacsh]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

You'd have to qualify that statement a bit. If I go strictly by total snowfall, 5 of 6 winters from 13-14 onward were AN down along 94 (the most S of SMI), including some epic CAT-4 storms and the all-time worst winter on record. I realize GR was sidelined for much of that, but not like zero winter was had across all of SMI. 

I guess for GR.  I got used to the consistent cold and LES.  It's been virtually non-existent in my area.  Missed most bigger snowstorms to the south or north.   I have a feeling there will be a lot more moisture and some good LES events this year with a wetter pattern and more westerly flows from the arctic/canadian air masses.   

I used my snowblower twice last year.   

[jaster220]

NOAA's call:

U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer, drier South with ongoing La Nina | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov)

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I guess for GR.  I got used to the consistent cold and LES.  It's been virtually non-existent in my area.  Missed most bigger snowstorms to the south or north.   I have a feeling there will be a lot more moisture and some good LES events this year with a wetter pattern and more westerly flows from the arctic/canadian air masses.   

I used my snowblower twice last year.   

Yeah, LES lately has been hugging the shoreline on NNW or N fetch. I agree on expecting better LES conditions and more favorable wind direction. Analogs don't mean what they used to, but there are some seriously good ones in the two previous triple-Ninas, including 75-76 which was a monster LES season.

[jaster220]

DTX says that for all (28) NINA's on record, a full 79% had normal to above normal precip. Only 1 in 5 were BN. Very favorable odds for sure. On the temperature side, there's an even split so we average "normal" fwiw. My recollection is that we will typically experience a 1 or 2 month period of cold-n-snowy conditions ala Dec '00 or Jan '99. For SEMI (and most of SMI really), the NINA's success comes down to whether we get enough cold, and more importantly the timing of the cold (see 07-08 for benchmark ex.). Last winter's cold timing was almost as horrid as it gets with mega torching leading right up until "show time", so I don't expect a worse outcome in that dept.

[jaster220]

Have to add this intriguing graphic on temps. Interesting for a couple reasons. Showing how the last two seasons were slightly AN here in SEMI which never helps the snowfall outcome. However, also several memorable NINA's were far warmer over-all, which hits my point that it's more about the timing of the cold wrt favorable snow amounts. Only seeing two complete FAILS where warmth ruled/ruined the season: 49-50 & 11-12. Expecting a MOD NINA, and that seems to be highly favorable to a colder regime. 

 

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Have to add this intriguing graphic on temps. Interesting for a couple reasons. Showing how the last two seasons were slightly AN here in SEMI which never helps the snowfall outcome. However, also several memorable NINA's were far warmer over-all, which hits my point that it's more about the timing of the cold wrt favorable snow amounts. Only seeing two complete FAILS where warmth ruled/ruined the season: 49-50 & 11-12. Expecting a MOD NINA, and that seems to be highly favorable to a colder regime. 

 

You're absolutely correct. Bad timing/temp variance can make a winter with "good numbers" garbage in totality.

Last year had good snow total, but timing/snowcover was horrible.

I sort of consider 2010-11 to be a strong Niña because of the whole of nearly the entire Pacific being cold. 

[Clinton]

Trying to look ahead to November and it's giving me a headache.  Gotta say I'm not sure which direction it will go but I'm going to lean with more of a phase 7 look.  The MJO is all over the place in the extended but the EPO, WPO, along with the NAO look to go negative as we move into November.  A trough digging into the west that @hawkstwelveshowed earlier should keep storm chances alive for many of us.

The GFS

The Euro

The JMA (best of the bunch)

The BOMM ext

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by Clinton

[Madtown]

See how it rolls.

 

https://johndee.com/seasonalfcst/2022-23/seasonalforecast.html

[Andie]

On 10/18/2022 at 11:43 AM, someweatherdude said:

When I was a kid, I moved from Texas to Iowa, much to my dismay (no offense to Iowa, I just liked my life the way it was).  I was very angry, but the one thing I was looking forward to was snow.  That year, Des Moines got 19 inches, barely 50% of normal. We moved away before the next winter. 

 In college, I again moved from Texas.  This time to Minnesota.  That year, the Twin Cities got 29 inches, or about 25 inches below normal.  It was the least snowy winter in 10 years. 

The first year I lived in KC, we had the least snowy winter on record -- 3.9 inches.  If you like snow, and I move to your town, you're screwed. 

Oh well, Texans often have that affect on places.  Hope you get your snow now.  If not, plan a ski trip to Colorado! 

[Tom]

The latest JMA weeklies are lining up for what will be a warm open to NOV and the continuation of delightful Indian Summer wx for many on here (except for maybe those up north).  Why not?  AN temps this time of year are enjoyable and will allow you to winterizing your home and finish up some yard work.  I'll prob plan on coming back home during this period so I'm sorta hoping this warm spell has some legs into the 1st couple weeks.

Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...Here is when the + changes could start to occur for Ol' Man Winter to return for our Sub...I like the LR signal for the Hudson Bay/Greenland Ridge to hook over into the Scandinavian/Urals Region.  Judah Cohen suggests that this is a blocking pattern that is conducive to weaken the PV.  Not only so, but it will likely begin to seed cold into the Eastern CONUS for the later half of NOV if this pressure pattern does in fact come to fruition.  Perfect timing for the start of the Holiday season?  I think so.

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, I'l end this post with the current state of the SST's and the biggest clue I see is the continuation of very warm waters hugging the west coastline of N.A.  The NE PAC is on fire and carried over into the N PAC.  The cool pool NW of Hawaii is another good LR signal for a colder winter for the U.S.  There have been documented research papers written about this particular warm/cold SST alignment in the N & NE PAC ocean.  I'm excited to see that there hasn't been any drastic shifts in the warm/cold pools over the past 4 weeks.  Good signs for us winter wx enthusiasts.

[Clinton]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

The latest JMA weeklies are lining up for what will be a warm open to NOV and the continuation of delightful Indian Summer wx for many on here (except for maybe those up north).  Why not?  AN temps this time of year are enjoyable and will allow you to winterizing your home and finish up some yard work.  I'll prob plan on coming back home during this period so I'm sorta hoping this warm spell has some legs into the 1st couple weeks.

Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...Here is when the + changes could start to occur for Ol' Man Winter to return for our Sub...I like the LR signal for the Hudson Bay/Greenland Ridge to hook over into the Scandinavian/Urals Region.  Judah Cohen suggests that this is a blocking pattern that is conducive to weaken the PV.  Not only so, but it will likely begin to seed cold into the Eastern CONUS for the later half of NOV if this pressure pattern does in fact come to fruition.  Perfect timing for the start of the Holiday season?  I think so.

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, I'l end this post with the current state of the SST's and the biggest clue I see is the continuation of very warm waters hugging the west coastline of N.A.  The NE PAC is on fire and carried over into the N PAC.  The cool pool NW of Hawaii is another good LR signal for a colder winter for the U.S.  There have been documented research papers written about this particular warm/cold SST alignment in the N & NE PAC ocean.  I'm excited to see that there hasn't been any drastic shifts in the warm/cold pools over the past 4 weeks.  Good signs for us winter wx enthusiasts.

I think we might see the Euro flip to a cold look by week 2 and maybe even sooner.  The Euro has been wanting to pull the MJO back into phase 6 in the long range and that just isn't happening.  The much superior JMA takes it right into 7 and is more progressive.  The Extended is showing the EPO going negative around the 5th and the JMA goes to phase 7 around the 3rd.  That storm at the end of todays 12z run could be the start of some exciting Winter weather.  For some fun I looked at the Control run and what a week it has to open Dec,

 

[Tom]

EPS Weeklies showing an interesting scenario for Thanksgiving week....-EPO/-NAO/SER???

[gabel23]

Found this guy on Twitter and I must say he has some good insights with long range! Thought I would share. He was a former meteorologist who created his own YouTube channel. 
 

 

[westMJim]

The string of great fall weather continues as yesterday was yet another great day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 64/32 with no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 34 it is now up to 36 and that 36 looks to be the official overnight low at GRR. For today the average H/L is 55/38 the record high of 79 was recorded in 1950 and the record low of 18 was set in 1988. The record snow fall for today is 1.5” set in 1923. Last year the H/L was 54/44.

 

[jaster220]

@westMJim

/\ wrong thread??

[westMJim]

19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@westMJim

/\ wrong thread??

yep 

Thanks I will change it.

[jaster220]

Not sure why @gabel23 didn't post the actual Winter Forecast, but here we go!  (and I like it - hello OKwx!)

Wow! I'm really intrigued by the potential wildcard that strange volcanic eruption could play. The "Y'all-o-meter" at the end (thought I was watching an add for male enhancement there for a min, lol) makes me wish I had my own yard again.

 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure why @gabel23 didn't post the actual Winter Forecast, but here we go!  (and I like it - hello OKwx!)

Wow! I'm really intrigued by the potential wildcard that strange volcanic eruption could play. The "Y'all-o-meter" at the end (thought I was watching an add for male enhancement there for a min, lol) makes me wish I had my own yard again.

 

I sure like what he has to say!

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure why @gabel23 didn't post the actual Winter Forecast, but here we go!  (and I like it - hello OKwx!)

Wow! I'm really intrigued by the potential wildcard that strange volcanic eruption could play. The "Y'all-o-meter" at the end (thought I was watching an add for male enhancement there for a min, lol) makes me wish I had my own yard again.

 

Has my vote!

@jaster220 Remember all those storms i used to write about from history that both my area and yours are linked by? 

I think this is our year, my friend.

Also, from that video of the average snowfalls, that little tail of 12-24 inches average into the Ozarks is why I've been frustrated for nearly a decade. I think I've averaged 9 inches over 20 years and that includes a 20 plus and a 33 inch winter (2011). 

I'm nervous because everything is literally perfect but if the Pacific fails (EPO blocks up) or sets up in the wrong place, I'm hosed and I know it.

He spoke to my caveats very well. 

Great video.

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Has my vote!

@jaster220 Remember all those storms i used to write about from history that both my area and yours are linked by? 

I think this is our year, my friend.

Also, from that video of the average snowfalls, that little tail of 12-24 inches average into the Ozarks is why I've been frustrated for nearly a decade. I think I've averaged 9 inches over 20 years and that includes a 20 plus and a 33 inch winter (2011). 

I'm nervous because everything is literally perfect but if the Pacific fails (EPO blocks up) or sets up in the wrong place, I'm hosed and I know it.

He spoke to my caveats very well. 

Great video.

Dude's pretty entertaining as well. Less mundane delivery than the typical seasonal outlook vid. That alone makes it a fun watch. But to your point(s), perhaps then Nature has some balancing that is overdue for your region and wants/needs to get busy doing just that. Idk but I'm drawn to 10-11 as an example that seems to fit here.

[gabel23]

Glad you guys liked it! Sorry @jaster220 I forgot to submit the winter outlook! I must say he has some pretty awesome insights with weather and is very knowledgable.