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Discussion on Autumn 2022 and New Winter Outlooks Coming Out


Niko

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20 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Adding...

  I don't see much change here over the next 4 weeks while this drought-anchored heat ridge-dome of hades hangs tough. 

Yeah. 96* today. 😣  And 6 more days just like it until we finally hit a high of 89* !

SO! Tired of this heat.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The Stratospheric warming over Eurasia during the past 2+ weeks is going to be a Big clue for the month of OCT and how fast or slow the snow cover advances across Russia.  I'm curious to see what Judah Cohen has to say as we head deeper into Autumn.  The animation below suggests a very strong Eurasia High Pressure during the month of OCT and that signals very cold air to brew in the region.  Let's see if this LR clue has any validation.

 

temp30anim.gif

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On 9/16/2022 at 12:44 AM, james1976 said:

3 La Nina's in a row is rare. Definitely intriguing. Really hope we all can enjoy a real winter but man, these longgggggg summers/ no fall thing is becoming a drag. I know its only mid Sept and still summer but I just assume it's gonna be 85 on Halloween 🤣 Hope it's not. Still 60s in my grids next Wednesday-on.....so I'll take that and run.

Wasn't it just 3 yrs ago Chicago had a snowstorm at Halloween? It's not always summer, tho I would rather it be nice at Halloween instead of Christmas and NY's like lately. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nina's have delivered some really good Decembers here in Detroit. Including the all-time 2nd biggest snow on record back on 12-1-74. My current locale likely did very well per regional reports off the NOWdata website. The epicenter was near here with DTW at 19.1" and UofM Ann Arbor scoring 20". What a way to start your MET winter, eh? Ahhhh..that 70's Show. After a pair of personal duds, I'm ready for a legit winter again. As always, promising signs and signals don't guarantee the goods get delivered but here's to hoping I don't have to wait until February to get my first storm again. Niko (hey Buddy!) will tell you nature's going to do whatever it wants to, but once in a while the dice do come up with boxcars. Every autumn hope springs eternal for the upcoming snow season! But first, we need to be tracking some autumn windstorms and even a November powerhouse would be awesome. Hoping we all score a share the wealth winter. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Wasn't it just 3 yrs ago Chicago had a snowstorm at Halloween? It's not always summer, tho I would rather it be nice at Halloween instead of Christmas and NY's like lately. 

I can't remember regarding the snowstorm but so far this early Fall has been nice and fall-like weather so I'm happy with that.

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16 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yuck. Steady or expanding drought across the Plains through the end of the year. Just can't break the pattern.

sdohomeweb.png

Just hard to do now that we’re entering the winter months. Obviously we’re gonna receive less liquid precip this time of the year. We need some sort of moisture this fall that’s for sure. 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

BAMWx's take on snowfall using their Top Analogs...

image.jpeg

List of Analog seasons by any chance? That looks like classic Nina to my eyes. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Good article.   Here’s hoping the Neutral materializes come Spring/Summer. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The new Euro Seasonal came in the other day, and I must say, ya'll ready???

OCT....carbon copy of the JMA weeklies....see my post in OCT thread....

image.png

 

PAC Jet en fuego to deliver the "goods"...AN precip in the Rockies is eye candy and for Cali...

image.png

 

image.png

 

NOV...Hello Greenland Block...Inside Sliders???

 

image.png

 

You can get an idea of where there will be regions of colder air....this model is terrible at seeing BN temps in the LR...heck, look at Alaska, there is just one or two teeny tiny blips of BN temps....ummm, ya...you really think that ends up being correct...I think not.

image.png

image.png

 

DEC...this doesn't need much explaining...Please verify...

image.png

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Impressive run off the Euro Weeklies last evening for the opening weeks of NOV...

image.gif

 

Before then, however...signs of a possible window of opportunity for a period of Indian Summer for the later part of OCT.  Maybe a warm Halloween for some??  Would be a nice reprieve from the early onslaught of cooler weather for those who will need to start doing some yardwork and the Fall clean up begins.

 

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May this be storm warning headlines in 2 months 😁

image.png.aa34983d6165d0d3fed718d19a7a4fc5.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I don't see the south getting a true reprieve in any of those patterns. Cold fronts proving to be weak and the omega block seems to stay in the wrong place.

My honest 2c worth. I just don't honestly see much interest down here til fall is gone.

Looks like a blast up north and probably excitement for autumn everywhere.

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I'm not big on analog based forecast but Joe D'Aleo posted this in regards to having 3 consecutive La Ninas.  The cold matches up well with the pattern we are having and are forecasted to have the next week or so, the LRC would suggest when this part of the pattern returns in late Nov or Dec artic air will spill into the  middle part of the country.  I would like to see precipitation analogs with this but he hasn't posted any yet, right now imo it looks VERY dry unless you live around the lakes.

The IRI model suite suggests a La Nina this winter.

Screen_Shot_2022_10_10_at_8_09_32_AM.png

This would be the 3rd successive La Nina. Two prior 3 year La Ninas were the mirror opposite.

1998/99, 1998/2000, 2000/01 ended with a very cold November and December and cold winter.

o0h7TLFPND.png

vxAcbYsutj.png

1973/74, 1974/75, 1975/76 ended with a warmer central and east cold west and Canada.

JZLy8RkKl7.png

Focusing on La Ninas with warm water NPAC is colder.

Screen_Shot_2022_10_10_at_6_58_11_AM.png

The preliminary summer based statistical blend is very much like the WB forecast with cold biased central. New inputs are arriving daily - so more to follow.

 
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@Clinton

Thanks for sharing that from Joe D.

Ofc, I'm in The Lakes and in those (2) analogs are at least (3) historic months for this region - Dec '74, Jan '99, & Dec '00

There are also some gross duds in the mix, lol.

Torn on buying into analogs too, since they've become randomly absent when expectations are high. 🙃

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The JMA weeklies from yesterday painting a strong indication that there will be an enhanced jet stream over the southern US for Week 2 and the West Coast folks.

2.png

image.png

 

Week 3-4...Boy, that Greenland Block...I see that Beauty of a West-Based Block...this is exactly where it developed and cycled over and over again last Oct thru this past Summer!  Who says the weather doesn't cycle?  A repeat scenario this next cold season could indicate another Big clue for a -NAO for longer periods.

 

3.png

Temps...looking out into the first couple weeks of NOV, most of the Nation appears to have seasonal temps except for the Upper MW and the central Plains.  

 

image.png

 

Precip...Inter-Mountain West looks bountiful and a sliver into the central Plains/Upper MW....I assume that we will begin to see the quintessential La Nina pattern as an active N Stream develops.

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-14 at 3.53.08 AM.png

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19 hours ago, Tom said:

The JMA weeklies from yesterday painting a strong indication that there will be an enhanced jet stream over the southern US for Week 2 and the West Coast folks.

2.png

image.png

 

Week 3-4...Boy, that Greenland Block...I see that Beauty of a West-Based Block...this is exactly where it developed and cycled over and over again last Oct thru this past Summer!  Who says the weather doesn't cycle?  A repeat scenario this next cold season could indicate another Big clue for a -NAO for longer periods.

 

3.png

Temps...looking out into the first couple weeks of NOV, most of the Nation appears to have seasonal temps except for the Upper MW and the central Plains.  

 

image.png

 

Precip...Inter-Mountain West looks bountiful and a sliver into the central Plains/Upper MW....I assume that we will begin to see the quintessential La Nina pattern as an active N Stream develops.

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-14 at 3.53.08 AM.png

Starting to believe we may see cycles of something unfamiliar in recent years....

Split-flow and phasing. 

This winter looks near crazy historic even without la Nina as a factor. 

Major mets are teaching about polar blasts and cold waves already. Thats pretty much something big right there.

Another caveat...What's going to happen is the CP enso warming as we go is going to take the show at times. 

If a cycle and attendant storms linger here for 4-5 days in October after a drought....

Well, big flip is all i can say. 

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As Texas looks ahead to a beautiful Fall we haven’t forgotten we must stay aware of winter’s issues.  With that, Texas’ power leadership has a new “sheriff.”  Let’s hope they’re building up to meet our increase in population   

A new CEO of Texas power grid manager aims to rebuild trust as another winter approaches

"So we continue to be tested, we continue to pass those tests," said Pablo Vegas, the new head of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. He said reliability is key to restoring public trust in the state's power grid.

-Fox weather 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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18 minutes ago, Andie said:

As Texas looks ahead to a beautiful Fall we haven’t forgotten we must stay aware of winter’s issues.  With that, Texas’ power leadership has a new “sheriff.”  Let’s hope they’re building up to meet our increase in population   

A new CEO of Texas power grid manager aims to rebuild trust as another winter approaches

"So we continue to be tested, we continue to pass those tests," said Pablo Vegas, the new head of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. He said reliability is key to restoring public trust in the state's power grid.

-Fox weather 

FINALLY! Someone that may know how to fix the Texas Power grid! I've heard that ERCOT may have gotten purged because of the fiasco from the February 2021 Extreme Snow and Ice, and the close call with the Summer of 2022 extreme heat. 

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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9 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

FINALLY! Someone that may know how to fix the Texas Power grid! I've heard that ERCOT may have gotten purged because of the fiasco from the February 2021 Extreme Snow and Ice, and the close call with the Summer of 2022 extreme heat. 

I hope they chose well, both the exits and hiring.   Population has really grown. A lot of utility demand with all these new homes being built with west coast refugees and even some from the migrants renting, passing through, etc. 

Everyone is hoping for an average winter. No super cold events, but I’m hearing we may be disappointed. 

Low of 69 tonight. The front will reach DFW area around noon.
Morning rain.  Hoping it pours! 
 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Joey D's model with Sept data using SEP #'s.......

1.png

Bastardi seems to think the MJO will head into the null phase and then emerge into phase 8 and 1.  That could make for a very cold Dec if that happens.  The GFS might be starting to trend that way.

GFS MJO index ensemble plume

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Lookout for some major blocking to hold and develop in NOV...something is brewing up in the STRAT...

temp30anim.gif

 

temp50anim.gif

 

I'm targeting a storm to track over the central SUB between 10/31 - 11/3 with a classic winter storm "look" to it...BSR suggesting a potentially interesting set up.

image.gif

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Joey D's model using SEP #'s.......

1.png

Classic! Just add moisture..boom! 👍

Have to admit. Between the early freeze, the awesome color show here, and the very favorable history for triple-Ninas, I'm getting stoked at the chances of a good winter here in far SE corner of The Mitt. 

As I commented on when @Clintono shared D'aleos outlook, this region normally does well in 2 out 3 winters. 

Of the current cycle, first one was a nothing-burger, last winter only slightly better (Lansing did good-they we're ground zero). Perhaps this season Ma Nature makes up for the last two?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We did get our morning rain but it was light.  More chances later today.  
Cloudy, 67* at 11:30 and that’s nice. 
The change is here.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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