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Discussion on Autumn 2022 and New Winter Outlooks Coming Out


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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Speaking of the weeklies, quite a bit of blue showing up in December especially across the middle of the country. The -EPO signature looks to be a longstanding feature of this season's overall pattern.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1668988800-1668988800-1672963200-40.gif

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t850_anom-1668988800-1668988800-1672963200-40.gif

What's exciting about the Euro Weeklies is that it rarely sees cold until it's right on top of you and it is seeing some serious cold in the long range.  Look what the Control did for the next 46 days.

0d40d5_de2bd84e967244b39a44f4c015de7db6~mv2.png

Several times in October the pattern produced cross polar flow and as we are about to enter cycle 2 there is literally nothing to suggest that it won't do it again.  The MJO is headed out of the warm phase 6 that is producing our warm up we have now and headed to the cold phase 7 and then the even colder phase 8.  It may pull the hat trick and hit all 3 cold phases as some ensembles take it into phase 1 as well.

GMON.png

The EPO is about to tank again, as @hawkstwelveand @Tom have said this is a major staple of this years pattern.

ecmwf_ensemble_nhem_avg_epo_box_9118400.png

The AO and NAO are headed negative

1669140000-zsuPpkXIm8kgrb2.png

1669140000-Cx7NZvoWFxsgrb2.png

The combination of all of these teleconnections at the same time is a real rarity.  After years of warm Decembers in KC and many other places this will be way different.  Should be some major storms also, Nov 30th and Dec 7th for starters and I will stop there for now lol.  Enjoy the warm up while it last by the second week of December if will be a distant memory.  

 

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During this past week I've seen 2 signs from nature indicating colder winter. A squirrel with a mouth full of grass to better insulate his nest with, and a huge flock of swans in V-formation which I have never witnessed in my life. To my knowledge, swans will winter over as long as they have some open water options. I think they migrate only when forced to by very harsh conditions.  

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

During this past week I've seen 2 signs from nature indicating colder winter. A squirrel with a mouth full of grass to better insulate his nest with, and a huge flock of swans in V-formation which I have never witnessed in my life. To my knowledge, swans will winter over as long as they have some open water options. I think they migrate only when forced to by very harsh conditions.  

I saw the geese migrating down here in the desert of AZ about 2 weeks ago!  A whole bunch made a pit stop at the local pond. If they are coming down early, something may be brewing here also.

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Euro is showing the NAO almost dropping to -4 by Dec 4th.

1669291200-tX8FoW0iVb0grb2.png

1669291200-1Q7qlFLez4Ugrb2.png

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AO departure negative correlate in some fashion with how far displaced the PV is likely to be? In opposite, the more positive the AO, the more perfectly aligned to the North Pole is the PV.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AO departure negative correlate in some fashion with how far displaced the PV is likely to be? In opposite, the more positive the AO, the more perfectly aligned to the North Pole is the PV.

Yes it is and a strong dip in the AO can dislodge the PV.

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