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Midwest & Great Lakes November 20-21st Snowstorm


Geos

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Last night the EURO came in with a great track for a lot of us. I think this system will survive on the models now. Now we get to see where it travels over.

 

 

6z GFS.

 

 

Discuss away...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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6z GFS still on board for Friday. How was Euro?

00z Euro...still on board and tries to give a lot of us on this sub-forum from the Plains/Lakes some snow fall...that's as close of a "share the wealth" snow system as you can get early on in the season.  Better than nothing.  I see the Euro is trying to dig this storm as it cuts NE towards S IN/S OH.

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Just posted in the November thread, maybe you can transfer it over here.  I agree, looks like this will be a nice first snow system to track this season and many of us may benefit from it.  

 

MI may get pounded!  Once we get better sampling, these type of systems tend to dig/intensify as they head up this way.  It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

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It would be quite rare to see warning type snows for the first legit snowfall. Since most models are showing a storm, it has sucked me in to follow it but I am still not ready to give up on this great weather we have been blessed with. Hopefully the weather will revert back for Thanksgiving weekend, after that it can snow all it wants!

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The sprawling HP south of Greenland can help slow this wave down and dig a bit more.  Something to keep an eye on in future runs.  Also, this is a pretty decent looking "speed max" up in the jet stream...should provide some good "lift" potential.

 

 

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ORD Snow Plume...

 

CUAfyvmWwAA7-2H.jpg

 

The Midway graph is a little lower. But, MDW still averages around 5". But, that average is pulled up quite a bit by one GFS outlier. I suspect Midway is in for 2-3". Ord maybe 4".  Looks like the Wi-Il line will get the bulk of the snow. Still, a decent little event for this time of year.

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ORD Snow Plume...

 

CUAfyvmWwAA7-2H.jpg

 

The Midway graph is a little lower. But, MDW still averages around 5". But, that average is pulled up quite a bit by one GFS outlier. I suspect Midway is in for 2-3". Ord maybe 4".  Looks like the Wi-Il line will get the bulk of the snow. Still, a decent little event for this time of year.

 

Indeed, not going to complain..esp since the avg snowfall in November is 1.2"...

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For Friday night into Saturday the local forecasts have anywhere from a trace to 6" of snow. But that is before any lake effect. It should be noted with Lake Michigan temps in the low 50's the heaver snow would be inland away from the lake and it could be too warm at the lake shore for it to snow. Not sure what the record warm temps are for the lake for mid into late November but with the warm fall we have had my guess is the lake is at or near record warmth for this late, 

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For Friday night into Saturday the local forecasts have anywhere from a trace to 6" of snow. But that is before any lake effect. It should be noted with Lake Michigan temps in the low 50's the heaver snow would be inland away from the lake and it could be too warm at the lake shore for it to snow. Not sure what the record warm temps are for the lake for mid into late November but with the warm fall we have had my guess is the lake is at or near record warmth for this late, 

If this system turns out to be a tad colder, esp later on Saturday night/Sunday, you can get some heavy lake effect squalls off of LM.  00z Euro run picked that up nicely near GRR.

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12z GFS looks slightly weaker. Any snowfall maps?

 

Tom posted a map above at 10:04 am.

Realistic. Would be quite good for a pre-Thanksgiving snowfall.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This storm is heading towards my thinking from the beginning.  12z Euro has it really trying to amp up as it heads into S IL/S IN/OH...more precip gets wrapped into this system near the Lower Lakes...it ends up spinning up into a 994mb SLP just NW of Buffalo.

 

Edit: Speed max looking more healthier this run...

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For Friday night into Saturday the local forecasts have anywhere from a trace to 6" of snow. But that is before any lake effect. It should be noted with Lake Michigan temps in the low 50's the heaver snow would be inland away from the lake and it could be too warm at the lake shore for it to snow. Not sure what the record warm temps are for the lake for mid into late November but with the warm fall we have had my guess is the lake is at or near record warmth for this late, 

 

If this system turns out to be a tad colder, esp later on Saturday night/Sunday, you can get some heavy lake effect squalls off of LM.  00z Euro run picked that up nicely near GRR.

 

Yeah, GR is gonna be golden for early season LES. They're the perfect distance. Gonna cash in big time with the warm water temps. Heck, I even think mby (80 miles inland) has a shot at a decent LES event or two the way this season is shaping up. Let the games begin! :D

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here is some past history and some thing to think about with the possibility of a November snow event and how that does not mean a thing for the rest of the winter. 

November 17,1989
Grand Rapids picks up seven inches of snow, bringing accumulations during a three day storm to over a foot. 

while  December 1989 was some what cold and snowy. But then January 1990 was a very warm +7.6°  and the coldest it got that January was only +19° and with only 10.6"  most of the month was snow free. That may be what we are looking at for this winter ………….maybe

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This storm bears watching. I'm in the 3-5inch range as of now, but likely to change in time.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Long Range NAM is North of GFS

 

Weaker and more disorganized too.

It's only the NAM at the end of its run. Not putting much stock in it!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I see that. Only negative over this way is the snow falls during the day which could limit accumulations.

 

Actually it did sneak south a little. Band isn't as wide as it was on the last 0z run. Still for November 20th it's pretty darn good.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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