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July 2022 heatwave forecast contest.


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  • Longtimer
On 7/22/2022 at 10:48 AM, Deweydog said:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 96/64

Tuesday: 98/67

Wednesday: 98/68

Thursday: 99/69

Friday: 97/68

Saturday: 94/67

Sunday: 88/64

image.gif

Sunday: 91/60

Monday: 96/65

Tuesday: 98/68

Wednesday: 99/68

Thursday: 98/69

Friday: 93/67

Saturday: 90/65

Sunday: 86/65
 

image.gif

 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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SEA 

84/58

90/62

94/65

95/66

93/64

93/66

89/63

86/62

Tacoma

82/57

88/60

92/63

94/65

93/64

91/64

87/60

85/59

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

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  • Longtimer
11 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

F*ck it

PDX:

Sunday: 91/59

Monday: 97/62

Tuesday: 99/64

Wednesday: 100/67

Thursday: 96/69

Friday: 94/67

Saturday: 90/64

Sunday: 85/62

 

image.gif

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’ll try to grade this thing since we never do. 😂

Will prob have to break it up by city.

I'm interested to see how well I do. I got Tuesday being the hottest day at PDX with them getting to 100. Only day I think PDX reaches the century mark, we will see. 🍿 

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8 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I'm interested to see how well I do. I got Tuesday being the hottest day at PDX with them getting to 100. Only day I think PDX reaches the century mark, we will see. 🍿 

I put Thursday and Friday as the hottest which probably was a mistake looking back, but let's see what happens!

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14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Read ‘em and weep!

7/24:

PDX: 92/59

SEA: 84/57

At least I got the highs right.

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1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Nailed the high low for PDX and the low for SEA today. But 2 degrees to cool on SEA's high, thanks EURO cold bias!

I got the high right for PDX but the low way too warm

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12 hours ago, Doiinko said:

I got the high right for PDX but the low way too warm

I thought I’d be too cool with the lows if anything.

Keep forgetting PNW isn’t DC and it actually cools at night there.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I thought I’d be too cool with the lows if anything.

Keep forgetting PNW isn’t DC and it actually cools at night there.

You keeping forgetting that huh?     I never noticed.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I thought I’d be too cool with the lows if anything.

Keep forgetting PNW isn’t DC and it actually cools at night there.

Not relative to our climo.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You keeping forgetting that huh?     I never noticed.  😀

I still wonder if it’s just less H2O in the boundary layer or some other factor that helps it cool there/other places in the West. Because even during monsoon season SW AZ cools 20+ degrees at night, and there’s plenty of humidity there.

Meanwhile it warmed from 81°F to 86°F here last night between 10pm to 2AM under clear skies and calm winds. Don’t understand how that happens without strong WAA (which there wasn’t any). Flummoxing.

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  • Longtimer
10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, people were throwing out 100s for SEA? I guess after last June nothing seems unreasonable, but doesn't seems like there was ever real model support for something of that magnitude.

There were a couple rogue Euro runs last week that showed basically a junior version of last June. After what happened last year I think people were expecting those really hot runs to lead the charge while all the other models jumped on board. Especially considering it was the Euro.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

There were a couple rogue Euro runs last week that showed basically a junior version of last June. After what happened last year I think people were expecting those really hot runs to lead the charge while all the other models jumped on board. Especially considering it was the Euro.

I admit I almost fell for that, simply because it was the Euro. That model is d**n good.

If the EPS had showed the same thing, I would’ve 100% jumped on board.

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I admit I almost fell for that, simply because it was the Euro. That model is d**n good.

If the EPS had showed the same thing, I would’ve 100% jumped on board.

Hopefully it’s similarly wrong with the lack of a quick cooldown on the back end of this thing 

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, people were throwing out 100s for SEA? I guess after last June nothing seems unreasonable, but doesn't seem like there was ever real model support for something of that magnitude.

Where’s your forecast??

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hopefully it’s similarly wrong with the lack of a quick cooldown on the back end of this thing 

I suspect it’s wrong only because none of the other guidance (including EPS mean) shows such an evolution, and there’ve been no trends in that direction either.

But if the EPS caves to the operational all bets are off.

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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There were a couple rogue Euro runs last week that showed basically a junior version of last June. After what happened last year I think people were expecting those really hot runs to lead the charge while all the other models jumped on board. Especially considering it was the Euro.

Think it was 3 days of runs where it was going for 100. If it was the gfs I wouldn’t have taken it seriously but considering it wasn’t just a one off run I definitely thought that’s where we were going for a bit thankfully that was wrong. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

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Well so far I’m not doing too bad I guess was too high for Tacoma yesterday. Of course these were easy ones to get. 
7/24 Tacoma 82/57 verified at 79/55

7/24 SEA        84/58 verified at 84/57

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Day three will set you free!

PDX: 102/67

SEA: 94/65

It’s all (mostly) downhill from here!

18Z EPS for SEA and PDX.   Holds pretty steady up here if it's right.   Have to see tomorrow after marine push to believe it.

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-8858400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-8858400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Thankfully my numbers have been a little high. The DPs are making up for the oppressive feeling though lol. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-4

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-1.21”

Wet season rainfall-8.41”

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Unofficial results with 2 days left. I only graded those who submitted both highs and lows. Each number is the total degrees off the hi/lo each day. The lower the total number the better. I did this quickly so double check my numbers. 

SEA -

1)TacomaWx:1+3+0+9+4+5=22

2)Frontal Snowsquall:2+2+3+6+7+5=25

3)Phil:2+3+2+6+9+8=30

4)BLI snowman:7+4+4+10+8+6=39

 

PDX -

1)Frontal Snowsquall:0+4+2+4+4+3=17

2)Phil:1+5+3+4+1+5=19

3)Cascadia_Wx:1+6+6+4+2+8=27

3)Kayla:2+4+3+10+7+1=27

5)Deweydog:2+4+5+4+4+9=28

5)GobBluth:3+7+3+4+3+8=28

7)Doiinko:5+5+5+6+8+1=30

8)BLI snowman:7+2+2+4+13+3=31

9)SnowWillarrive:5+5+4+6+11+4=35

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What's surprising about the numbers is out of all the entries, there have only been 2 correct predictions so far for both the hi/lo of the day. Tacoma with 94/65 on Tuesday for SEA and Frontal with 92/59 for PDX on Sunday. There have been 6 entries just 1 degree off and 10 entries just 2 degrees off though. Just shows you how hard weather forecasting is.

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4 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Unofficial results with 2 days left. I only graded those who submitted both highs and lows. Each number is the total degrees off the hi/lo each day. The lower the total number the better. I did this quickly so double check my numbers. 

SEA -

1)TacomaWx:1+3+0+9+4+5=22

2)Frontal Snowsquall:2+2+3+6+7+5=25

3)Phil:2+3+2+6+9+8=30

4)BLI snowman:7+4+4+10+8+6=39

 

PDX -

1)Frontal Snowsquall:0+4+2+4+4+3=17

2)Phil:1+5+3+4+1+5=19

3)Cascadia_Wx:1+6+6+4+2+8=27

3)Kayla:2+4+3+10+7+1=27

5)Deweydog:2+4+5+4+4+9=28

5)GobBluth:3+7+3+4+3+8=28

7)Doiinko:5+5+5+6+8+1=30

8)BLI snowman:7+2+2+4+13+3=31

9)SnowWillarrive:5+5+4+6+11+4=35

Nice job with your forecasts! I'm 7th so far and not doing that well but maybe I can do better for our record breaking arctic outbreak next January!

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7 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Nice job with your forecasts! I'm 7th so far and not doing that well but maybe I can do better for our record breaking arctic outbreak next January!

Thanks! I always seem to do well in the heatwave/summer forecast contest, not so much in the arctic blast/winter contest. 🤣 

You are doing good for a rookie. You nailed the high temp for PDX yesterday but was just 1 degree off on the low. 

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