July 2022 heatwave forecast contest.

[Eastwind]

I'll have my final submission with lows tomorrow. 

SEA

7/24: 83

7/25: 85

7/26: 91

7/27: 93

7/28: 91

7/29: 92

7/30: 90

7/31: 86

PDX

7/24: 91

7/25: 94

7/26: 97

7/27: 98

7/28: 99

7/29: 99

7/30: 98

7/31: 94

[TT-SEA]

I like all these forecasts showing SEA not even getting close to 100.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I like all these forecasts showing SEA not even getting close to 100.

You gonna throw your hat in the ring?

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

You gonna throw your hat in the ring?

I would just go 3 degrees higher than the ECMWF.   

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would just go 3 degrees higher than the ECMWF.   

Have a little fun, man. None of us will be anywhere close.  

[Deweydog]

I’m impressed by the number of entries! We’re quite the morally bankrupt group!

[Doinko]

PDX:

7/24: 92/64

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 97/69

7/27: 99/69

7/28: 101/70

7/29: 100/70

7/30: 96/68

7/31: 94/65

 

[Kayla]

PDX:

7/24 93/58

7/25 98/63

7/26 101/65

7/27 103/70

7/28 99/71

7/29 99/69

7/30 94/66

7/31 93/63

 

[Phil]

Update:

PDX

7/24: 92/60

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 99/67

7/27: 99/68

7/28: 96/68

7/29: 97/67

7/30: 94/65

7/31: 91/62

 

SEA

7/24: 84/59

7/25: 85/63

7/26: 93/64

7/27: 93/65

7/28: 90/66

7/29: 88/64

7/30: 85/64

7/31: 83/63

[Eastwind]

21 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I'll have my final submission with lows tomorrow. 

SEA

7/24: 83

7/25: 85

7/26: 91

7/27: 93

7/28: 91

7/29: 92

7/30: 90

7/31: 86

PDX

7/24: 91

7/25: 94

7/26: 97

7/27: 98

7/28: 99

7/29: 99

7/30: 98

7/31: 94

My final submission with lows. Good luck to all!

SEA

7/24: 82/57

7/25: 86/61

7/26: 92/64

7/27: 93/65

7/28: 91/65

7/29: 91/64

7/30: 86/63

7/31: 84/62

 

PDX

7/24: 92/59

7/25: 96/65

7/26: 100/67

7/27: 98/69

7/28: 98/69

7/29: 98/68

7/30: 95/68

7/31: 91/66

[SnowWillarrive]

PDX:

7/24: 92/64

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 100/69

7/27: 100/69

7/28: 104/70

7/29: 103/70

7/30: 100/68

7/31: 94/65

[Doinko]

Final one for PDX:

7/24: 92/64

7/25: 95/65

7/26: 99/68

7/27: 99/70

7/28: 101/70

7/29: 100/68

7/30: 93/66

7/31: 91/65

[Deweydog]

On 7/22/2022 at 10:48 AM, Deweydog said:

Sunday: 91/61

Monday: 96/64

Tuesday: 98/67

Wednesday: 98/68

Thursday: 99/69

Friday: 97/68

Saturday: 94/67

Sunday: 88/64

Sunday: 91/60

Monday: 96/65

Tuesday: 98/68

Wednesday: 99/68

Thursday: 98/69

Friday: 93/67

Saturday: 90/65

Sunday: 86/65
 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

F*ck it

PDX:

Sunday: 91/59

Monday: 97/62

Tuesday: 99/64

Wednesday: 100/67

Thursday: 96/69

Friday: 94/67

Saturday: 90/64

Sunday: 85/62

 

[GobBluth]

ETA : Copied Cascadians and edited but didn't delete the **** it.

 

PDX:

Sunday: 89/59

Monday: 96/62

Tuesday: 100/68

Wednesday: 98/69

Thursday: 98/68

Friday: 94/67

Saturday: 90/64

Sunday: 85/62

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

SEA 

84/58

90/62

94/65

95/66

93/64

93/66

89/63

86/62

Tacoma

82/57

88/60

92/63

94/65

93/64

91/64

87/60

85/59

[Phil]

I’ll try to grade this thing since we never do.

Will prob have to break it up by city.

[Deweydog]

11 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

F*ck it

PDX:

Sunday: 91/59

Monday: 97/62

Tuesday: 99/64

Wednesday: 100/67

Thursday: 96/69

Friday: 94/67

Saturday: 90/64

Sunday: 85/62

 

[Eastwind]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’ll try to grade this thing since we never do.

Will prob have to break it up by city.

I'm interested to see how well I do. I got Tuesday being the hottest day at PDX with them getting to 100. Only day I think PDX reaches the century mark, we will see.  

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I'm interested to see how well I do. I got Tuesday being the hottest day at PDX with them getting to 100. Only day I think PDX reaches the century mark, we will see.  

I put Thursday and Friday as the hottest which probably was a mistake looking back, but let's see what happens!

[Deweydog]

Read ‘em and weep!

7/24:

PDX: 92/59

SEA: 84/57

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Read ‘em and weep!

7/24:

PDX: 92/59

SEA: 84/57

At least I got the highs right.

[Eastwind]

34 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Read ‘em and weep!

7/24:

PDX: 92/59

SEA: 84/57

Nailed the high low for PDX and the low for SEA today. But 2 degrees to cool on SEA's high, thanks EURO cold bias!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Nailed the high low for PDX and the low for SEA today. But 2 degrees to cool on SEA's high, thanks EURO cold bias!

I got the high right for PDX but the low way too warm

[Cascadia_Wx]

23 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I’m sure the no 90 July society is feeling the same way about you right now.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phil]

12 hours ago, Doiinko said:

I got the high right for PDX but the low way too warm

I thought I’d be too cool with the lows if anything.

Keep forgetting PNW isn’t DC and it actually cools at night there.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I thought I’d be too cool with the lows if anything.

Keep forgetting PNW isn’t DC and it actually cools at night there.

You keeping forgetting that huh?     I never noticed.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I thought I’d be too cool with the lows if anything.

Keep forgetting PNW isn’t DC and it actually cools at night there.

Not relative to our climo.

[Doom Buster]

Wow, people were throwing out 100s for SEA? I guess after last June nothing seems unreasonable, but doesn't seem like there was ever real model support for something of that magnitude.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You keeping forgetting that huh?     I never noticed.  

I still wonder if it’s just less H2O in the boundary layer or some other factor that helps it cool there/other places in the West. Because even during monsoon season SW AZ cools 20+ degrees at night, and there’s plenty of humidity there.

Meanwhile it warmed from 81°F to 86°F here last night between 10pm to 2AM under clear skies and calm winds. Don’t understand how that happens without strong WAA (which there wasn’t any). Flummoxing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, people were throwing out 100s for SEA? I guess after last June nothing seems unreasonable, but doesn't seems like there was ever real model support for something of that magnitude.

There were a couple rogue Euro runs last week that showed basically a junior version of last June. After what happened last year I think people were expecting those really hot runs to lead the charge while all the other models jumped on board. Especially considering it was the Euro.

[Phil]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

There were a couple rogue Euro runs last week that showed basically a junior version of last June. After what happened last year I think people were expecting those really hot runs to lead the charge while all the other models jumped on board. Especially considering it was the Euro.

I admit I almost fell for that, simply because it was the Euro. That model is d**n good.

If the EPS had showed the same thing, I would’ve 100% jumped on board.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I admit I almost fell for that, simply because it was the Euro. That model is d**n good.

If the EPS had showed the same thing, I would’ve 100% jumped on board.

Hopefully it’s similarly wrong with the lack of a quick cooldown on the back end of this thing 

[Deweydog]

32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, people were throwing out 100s for SEA? I guess after last June nothing seems unreasonable, but doesn't seem like there was ever real model support for something of that magnitude.

Where’s your forecast??

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hopefully it’s similarly wrong with the lack of a quick cooldown on the back end of this thing 

I suspect it’s wrong only because none of the other guidance (including EPS mean) shows such an evolution, and there’ve been no trends in that direction either.

But if the EPS caves to the operational all bets are off.

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Where’s your forecast??

Haven't been on here much, didn't even see this.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There were a couple rogue Euro runs last week that showed basically a junior version of last June. After what happened last year I think people were expecting those really hot runs to lead the charge while all the other models jumped on board. Especially considering it was the Euro.

Think it was 3 days of runs where it was going for 100. If it was the gfs I wouldn’t have taken it seriously but considering it wasn’t just a one off run I definitely thought that’s where we were going for a bit thankfully that was wrong. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Well so far I’m not doing too bad I guess was too high for Tacoma yesterday. Of course these were easy ones to get. 
7/24 Tacoma 82/57 verified at 79/55

7/24 SEA        84/58 verified at 84/57

[Deweydog]

7/25:

PDX: 99/66 (nicely done!)

SEA: 87/62 (needs some work)

[Eastwind]

16 hours ago, Deweydog said:

7/25:

PDX: 99/66 (nicely done!)

SEA: 87/62 (needs some work)

PDX: 96/65

SEA:86/61

I was a little too cold for all my temps yesterday.