Just How Horrible Has January Been Since 1980?

[snow_wizard]

The January monthly averages for Clearbrook and Landsburg paint a truly shocking picture of just how lame that month has become.  I think Justin summed it up quite humorously (tragic comedy) when he called the once respectable month..."The Artist Formerly Known As January..."

 

January is single handedly responsible for the demise of our winters since November, December, and February haven't really changed THAT much.

 

Anyway here is a list of the coldest Januaries for Clearbrook and Landsburg.  At the end of each list I will enter the coldest January since 1980 and the coldest January of the 2000s.  Keep in mind these are rural stations so urban heat island is not a factor.

 

Clearbrook January averages below 30.0 (records date back to 1903).  Some of these are comparable to some of the coldest Januaries ever recorded in NYC.

 

1950 - 17.2

1916 - 22.7

1937 - 23.0

1907 - 23.3

1969 - 23.4

1930 - 25.9

1957 - 26.9

1911-  27.7

1943 - 27.7

1929 - 28.4

1913 - 28.6

1979 - 28.6

1949 - 29.1

1954 - 29.9

 

Coldest since 1980 - 1993 - 30.7

Coldest of the 21st C - 35.6 (astonishing)

 

 

Landsburg January averages below 32.0 (records go back to 1916)

 

1950 - 24.9

1937 - 26.6

1916 - 27.6

1930 - 28.1

1949 - 29.1

1929 - 29.9

1957 - 30.0

1969 - 30.9

1979 - 31.8

1943 - 31.9

 

Coldest since 1980 - 2013 - 34.7 (counts for coldest of the 21st C also)

 

Every time I look at these numbers I can hardly believe how badly the month of January has deteriorated over the last 35 years.

 

[Jesse]

I made a post outlining some of my reasoning as to why January has warmed so much in the global warming sub-thread.

[snow_wizard]

I can't find that.  Could you cut and paste it into this thread?

 

I am hopeful it's just some kind of weird fluke, but there is no question there could be much more to it than that.  If it has been a fluke it's nice to think Mother Nature may decide to make up for it in the coming years.

[Front Ranger]

I made a post outlining some of my reasoning as to why January has warned so much on the global warming sub-thread.

 

Your theory was that January used to be dominated by a polar jet further south. Problem is, if you look at the January 1950s and January 1969s, they had some outstanding blocking patterns - the same kind of blocking patterns that we've seen to a lesser extent in Nov/Dec in more recent years. We just haven't had those patterns happen in January.

 

Point being, in the truly cold Januaries of the past (20th century), it required the same kind of blocking patterns that produce cold now.

[Black Hole]

Yeah, with the case of January it is entirely about the complete lack of good patterns to bring in the cold. I mean sure, the climate is warming some, but that isn't what this is. 

I find it both frustrating and fascinating that we could go this long without a truly legitimate arctic blast. Many locations, including SLC where I live, haven't set any record lows in 35 years in January. That is outrageous. 

[BLI snowman]

Your theory was that January used to be dominated by a polar jet further south. Problem is, if you look at the January 1950s and January 1969s, they had some outstanding blocking patterns - the same kind of blocking patterns that we've seen to a lesser extent in Nov/Dec in more recent years. We just haven't had those patterns happen in January.

 

Point being, in the truly cold Januaries of the past (20th century), it required the same kind of blocking patterns that produce cold now.

 

We aren't seeing super negative PNA months anymore for the most part, meaning the 500mb height differentials aren't as impressive acros the North Pacific.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.mon.pna.wg.jan1950-current.ascii.table

 

Using the modified PNA, the only DJF months this century to fall below -1.50 are December 2008, February 2009, and February 2011.

 

Compare that to the 1950s, which had January 1950, December 1951, January 1952, February 1955, February 1956, January 1957, February 1957, and February 1959.

 

January is especially egregious, it hasn't fallen below -1.00 in a month since 1990 and is almost annually positive in January.

[Phil]

Probably has something to do with the warming IO/WPAC relative to the EPAC under a weakening Hadley Cell gradient. That's definitely an unfavorable (trend in) forcing for you guys, particularly when antecedent hemispheric wavelengths are long because it favors an E-ward shift in NPAC jet extension. With the greater wave-spacing during mid/late winter, that increases zonal flow and vorticity south of the Aleutians, knocking the NE-PAC ridge E-ward.

[Brennan]

Probably has something to do with the warming IO/WPAC relative to the EPAC under a weakening Hadley Cell gradient. That's definitely an unfavorable (trend in) forcing for you guys, particularly when antecedent hemispheric wavelengths are long because it favors an E-ward shift in NPAC jet extension. With the greater wave-spacing during mid/late winter, that increases zonal flow and vorticity south of the Aleutians, knocking the NE-PAC ridge E-ward.

And this Hadley Cell gradient is going to be weakening for how much longer? WHEN ARE THINGS GOING TO BE FAVORABLE FOR US?

[wx_statman]

Same story in Medford. 

 

On 1/29/1980 Medford fell to 10 degrees, breaking the daily record low of 12 from 1916. What made this day special? It was the only time since 1963 that a new record low was set in January @ MFR. There was also a tie on 1/16/1987 with a rather weak 15 degrees, tying the daily record from 1949. 

 

So one daily record low set and one tied in 53 years. Oh January....

[wx_statman]

Also, coldest January events in Medford since records began in 1911 (only the minimum for the event is shown to lessen clutter):

 

-3F on 1/11/1930

0F on 1/22/1962

1F on 1/8/1937

1F on 1/31/1950

5F on 1/24/1949

6F on 1/21/1937

6F on 1/10/1949

8F on 1/3/1950

8F on 1/12/1963

9F on 1/17/1952

9F on 1/19/1922

 

There hasn't been a single January minimum below 10F at MFR since 1963. What's especially glaring is the number of times Medford has gotten cold outside of January since 1963:

 

-6F on 12/8/1972

-4F on 12/21/1990

2F on 12/8/2013

6F on 12/21/1998

9F on 2/5/1989

[snow_wizard]

Same story in Medford. 

 

On 1/29/1980 Medford fell to 10 degrees, breaking the daily record low of 12 from 1916. What made this day special? It was the only time since 1963 that a new record low was set in January @ MFR. There was also a tie on 1/16/1987 with a rather weak 15 degrees, tying the daily record from 1949. 

 

So one daily record low set and one tied in 53 years. Oh January....

 

Wowzers!

 

That pretty much says it all.

[wx_statman]

Another good example is Kennewick. 

 

Their 1921-50 average for January was 30.5F

 

The 1991-20 running average thus far is 35.7F, representing an increase of 5.2F between the two baselines. 

 

Their coldest January's are as follows (since 1894):

 

12.3F in 1930

13.7F in 1937

15.3F in 1950

15.6F in 1949

16.6F in 1979

19.5F in 1916

20.3F in 1957

21.6F in 1922

22.2F in 1969

22.5F in 1929

22.6F in 1907

22.7F in 1960

 

Since 1979, there's only been one truly cold January - 1993 with an average of 24.6F. Still well outside the top 10. 

 

Since 1993, the coldest January has been just 30.5F in 2004 - in other words, what would have been the average January temperature 70 years ago is now the lowest benchmark in a 23 year period. That's hard to stomach, especially considering this is where our low level cold airmasses in Portland come from. 

[snow_wizard]

There are so many ways to illustrate how incredible the January warmth has been and they are all jaw dropping.  It will be amazing to see it turn around...assuming it does.  There will be a lot of baffled people who are used to the incredible warmth of the past 30+ years.

[Front Ranger]

What's especially glaring is the number of times Medford has gotten cold outside of January since 1963:

 

-6F on 12/8/1972

-4F on 12/21/1990

2F on 12/8/2013

6F on 12/21/1998

9F on 2/5/1989

 

That is the other side of the coin. December has been a completely different story. No, it hasn't made up for the slack of January (especially since January used to be far and away the best month for winter weather in the PNW), but it hasn't even come close to seeing the same trend, and has actually trended colder over the past 60+ years.

 

OLM's top 6 coldest Decembers have all come since 1978. Same trend can be seen with other rural stations throughout the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

There are so many ways to illustrate how incredible the January warmth has been and they are all jaw dropping. It will be amazing to see it turn around...assuming it does. There will be a lot of baffled people who are used to the incredible warmth of the past 30+ years.

 

Baffled people? 

 

You truly love that... you reference it so often. I am honestly not even sure if you like the cold or people's reaction to the cold more. Seriously.

 

No non-weather person would ever think January is incredibly warm here.

 

I clearly remember being buried in snow in January 2012 and then a massive ice storm and never heard anyone say 'how could this happen in January'. People assume it's the coldest winter month.

[snow_wizard]

That is the other side of the coin. December has been a completely different story. No, it hasn't made up for the slack of January (especially since January used to be far and away the best month for winter weather in the PNW), but it hasn't even come close to seeing the same trend, and has actually trended colder over the past 60+ years.

 

OLM's top 6 coldest Decembers have all come since 1978. Same trend can be seen with other rural stations throughout the PNW.

 

This is the thing that seems almost beyond explanation.  The big problem is January cold waves are statistically much more likely to bring long lasting snow cover and snow in general.  Not to mention the January cold usually lasts a lot longer.

[snow_wizard]

Baffled people? 

 

You truly love that... you reference it so often. I am honestly not even sure if you like the cold or people's reaction to the cold more. Seriously.

 

No non-weather person would ever think January is incredibly warm here.

 

I clearly remember being buried in snow in January 2012 and then a massive ice storm and never heard anyone say 'how could this happen in January'. People assume it's the coldest winter month.

 

I don't know why they would think that since it hasn't been true lately.

[stuffradio]

It dropped to 6F in Abbotsford in January 2012. It was around that same temp, maybe closer to 10F than 6F at my house in Jan 2012 too.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know why they would think that since it hasn't been true lately.

 

 

Because people in the northern hemisphere recognize that January is the dead of winter.     And its always cold and damp here in January... whether its above normal or not.     I have never heard anyone talk about the incredible warmth in January... only on this forum.      People would expect snow to happen in December and January if its going to happen.   

 

But I truly think people's reaction to cold is more enjoyable to you than the cold itself.  

[wx_statman]

It dropped to 6F in Abbotsford in January 2012. It was around that same temp, maybe closer to 10F than 6F at my house in Jan 2012 too.

 

That was a very impressive cold wave up north. Ketchikan set their all-time record low maximum of 8F in that airmass. Shame it couldn't penetrate further south. 

[Black Hole]

I would be curious if we could look at some similar statistics for areas in the eastern USA which have done well in January. Have they done better than the long term average? How about in Dec? Anybody know offhand? 

[snow_wizard]

I would be curious if we could look at some similar statistics for areas in the eastern USA which have done well in January. Have they done better than the long term average? How about in Dec? Anybody know offhand? 

 

I've looked into it some and they have basically done about as well as they used to.  Very little change, but some areas moreso in the SE have actually cooled a bit from what they experienced in the 1930 to 1975 period.  I have actually made some progress on a January index which weighs the Western US against the Eastern US since 1930.  Pretty fascinating.   There is no question the Western US experiences much more fluctuation for whatever reason.

[wx_statman]

I've looked into it some and they have basically done about as well as they used to.  Very little change, but some areas moreso in the SE have actually cooled a bit from what they experienced in the 1930 to 1975 period.  I have actually made some progress on a January index which weighs the Western US against the Eastern US since 1930.  Pretty fascinating.   There is no question the Western US experiences much more fluctuation for whatever reason.

 

Justin made a good point about the lack of -PNA in January over the last few decades. That's one of the most compelling reasons for our January woes that's I've seen yet.

[snow_wizard]

Justin made a good point about the lack of -PNA in January over the last few decades. That's one of the most compelling reasons for our January woes that's I've seen yet.

 

Yup.  It seems like every Jan we just get bulldozed by the PJ or end up under a fooking ridge.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Here, I posted it for you.

 

It's not just in the PNW.  Here in my L.A. suburb over the 23 years I've been keeping temperature records, January has averaged warmer than either December or February, especially in recent years.  The last cooler-than-normal January was in 2008.

 

It has also been so much drier in January in recent years in Socal along with the warmer temperatures.

[Dan the Weatherman]

And this Hadley Cell gradient is going to be weakening for how much longer? WHEN ARE THINGS GOING TO BE FAVORABLE FOR US?

 

The Hadley Cell has been expanding poleward in recent years, which has been one of the major factors causing the current drought in CA, especially in the southern half of the state. This subtropical high has created warmer conditions in CA, and has also shifted the storm track more to the north, not allowing colder air masses and storms to come southward as often.

 

I would also like to know when this trend in the Hadley Cell will reverse, in which it contracts equatorward, allowing storm systems to penetrate CA during the winter months with more regularity before this drought began. When this happens, your area will once again get colder outbreaks with the suppressed jet.

[Jesse]

Another good example is Kennewick.

 

Their 1921-50 average for January was 30.5F

 

The 1991-20 running average thus far is 35.7F, representing an increase of 5.2F between the two baselines.

 

Their coldest January's are as follows (since 1894):

 

12.3F in 1930

13.7F in 1937

15.3F in 1950

15.6F in 1949

16.6F in 1979

19.5F in 1916

20.3F in 1957

21.6F in 1922

22.2F in 1969

22.5F in 1929

22.6F in 1907

22.7F in 1960

 

Since 1979, there's only been one truly cold January - 1993 with an average of 24.6F. Still well outside the top 10.

 

Since 1993, the coldest January has been just 30.5F in 2004 - in other words, what would have been the average January temperature 70 years ago is now the lowest benchmark in a 23 year period. That's hard to stomach, especially considering this is where our low level cold airmasses in Portland come from.

That is absolutely mindblowing, and explains a lot.

 

Btw, what did you think about my hypothesis on January's warming at the beginning of this thread? It is something I have though a lot about, almost like we have seen an entire "sub-season" slip away from us.

[BLI snowman]

January 20-31 is a period to watch this year. 2008 and 2009 are the most recent years to feature significant cool airmasses (-5c or lower) at 850mb in this period. It's laughably overdue.

[wx_statman]

That is absolutely mindblowing, and explains a lot.

 

Btw, what did you think about my hypothesis on January's warming at the beginning of this thread? It is something I have though a lot about, almost like we have seen an entire "sub-season" slip away from us.

 

I think you made a lot of good points in that post. That's pretty much how I see it too. That line of reasoning also helps explain why a warming of 1F can have a significant impact on the climate, which ties into some of the discussion in yesterday's main thread. The capabilities of a given climate zone, especially one like ours - one that's heavily dependent on a number of factors to come together to produce significant cold anomalies in the winter, unlike a location on the lee side of a continent where cold airmasses travel naturally - can be significantly impacted by even a little bit of regional/global warming. I can't explain it quantitatively since I don't hold any degrees in physics or atmospheric sciences, but I can see it from studying weather records for 20+ years. 

[Jesse]

I think you made a lot of good points in that post. That's pretty much how I see it too. That line of reasoning also helps explain why a warming of 1F can have a significant impact on the climate, which ties into some of the discussion in yesterday's main thread. The capabilities of a given climate zone, especially one like ours - one that's heavily dependent on a number of factors to come together to produce significant cold anomalies in the winter, unlike a location on the lee side of a continent where cold airmasses travel naturally - can be significantly impacted by even a little bit of regional/global warming. I can't explain it quantitatively since I don't hold any degrees in physics or atmospheric sciences, but I can see it from studying weather records for 20+ years. 

 

Yup, this all makes sense to me, sadly.

 

Obviously I would love for the climate to prove us wrong at some point!

[Black Hole]

Wxstatman, have you done any write ups on 1932-1933 on this forum? That was a real ice box in my area (esp Jan) and I would be curious to learn a bit more. 

 

[wx_statman]

Wxstatman, have you done any write ups on 1932-1933 on this forum? That was a real ice box in my area (esp Jan) and I would be curious to learn a bit more. 

 

 

 

I know we brought it up a bunch of times back in the days of Western. We've discussed the cold waves in both December and February anyway. 

 

Also, are you sure about January being the ice box? Both December and February were colder in northern UT that winter as far as I can tell. 

[Phil]

I've looked into it some and they have basically done about as well as they used to. Very little change, but some areas moreso in the SE have actually cooled a bit from what they experienced in the 1930 to 1975 period. I have actually made some progress on a January index which weighs the Western US against the Eastern US since 1930. Pretty fascinating. There is no question the Western US experiences much more fluctuation for whatever reason.

Actually, snowfall wise, most cities in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions are performing better than they used to, while most cities in the west and southeast are seeing steady declines in snowfall averages.

 

Note: These graphs only run through February of 2014, so they don't include the monster March of 2014 and huge winters of 2015 and 2016 (though the latter was weak in northern areas).

 

Detroit:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B3C7B266-21CB-40DF-9433-8DD73D0A7907_zpsrdhffcqv.gif

 

NYC:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/80C88D59-2022-4FBD-BF98-663BB58A4599_zps4ynvsn8v.gif

 

Philadelphia, PA:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C441735F-D7DD-4F87-B7ED-0F2A00AB5E28_zpsbzbheqik.gif

 

Boston:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BC13E7CB-B533-402C-A613-93F4F507CBA9_zpsxhcuueku.gif

 

Cleveland:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FC9C5938-45B3-4B34-8408-30E9524791C3_zpsmhrxiuk4.gif

 

International Falls:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5013945B-0A5F-48CF-B04A-BE344902C89D_zpsxo6zsmib.gif

[wx_statman]

Actually, snowfall wise, most cities in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions are performing better than they used to, while most cities in the west and southeast are seeing steady declines in snowfall averages.

 

It stands to reason that locations that have more of a borderline winter climate see declines in snowfall averages as the climate warms. Locations in the Great Lakes and NE can warm a couple degrees F but not see any decrease in snow. In fact, their snowfall average may increase due to increasing precipitation, even as average temperatures warm - since the mean winter temperature will still be cold enough to support snowfall for the most part. 

[Phil]

It's funny, the original theory was that climate change was putting more water in the air, hence more precipitation to fall in the form of snow, given temperatures are more than sufficiently cold for snowfall in these regions.

 

However, this line of logic is starting to running thin, not just in the face of historic cold outbreaks and a southward propagation of the typical confluence zone, but also the fact that more southern cities are starting to cash in now, including Washington DC, Richmond, and Atlantic City.

 

The more I look at everything, the more I suspect the dramatic climatological changes in the NATL Hadley Cell in recent years are to blame, or more specifically, the changes in the Pacific Hadley Cell(s) relative to the Atlantic Cell(s).

[Phil]

It stands to reason that locations that have more of a borderline winter climate see declines in snowfall averages as the climate warms. Locations in the Great Lakes and NE can warm a couple degrees F but not see any decrease in snow. In fact, their snowfall average may increase due to increasing precipitation, even as average temperatures warm - since the mean winter temperature will still be cold enough to support snowfall for the most part.

 

Then how do you explain the decline in snowfall in western cities like Grand Junction, CO? I think the observed, verifiable evidence points towards an ongoing shift in the climatological circulations across the hemisphere.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F70031A1-F01F-4D2A-8251-2BC66808EE56_zpslfajfqyl.gif

[wx_statman]

Then there's the theory that the decrease in Arctic sea ice is leading to a more unstable polar jet, increasing the likelihood of seeing historically cold/snowy winters in some places and historically warm weather in others. A lot of uncertainty out there as to what the actual effects of the warming are/will be. 

[wx_statman]

Then how do you explain the decline in snowfall in western cities like Grand Junction, CO? I think the observed, verifiable evidence points towards an ongoing shift in the climatological circulations across the hemisphere.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F70031A1-F01F-4D2A-8251-2BC66808EE56_zpslfajfqyl.gif

 

I don't know, and I don't claim to know. Its interesting though. 

[wx_statman]

Then how do you explain the decline in snowfall in western cities like Grand Junction, CO? I think the observed, verifiable evidence points towards an ongoing shift in the climatological circulations across the hemisphere.

 

And this part totally makes sense, given that the climate is changing. I don't think anyone would dispute that. The only debates that I've seen are about the cause of the changes. 

[Black Hole]

I know we brought it up a bunch of times back in the days of Western. We've discussed the cold waves in both December and February anyway. 

 

Also, are you sure about January being the ice box? Both December and February were colder in northern UT that winter as far as I can tell. 

All three months have numerous records from that winter. January was relatively warmer, yes, I think I got confused because I don't see what I thought I saw earlier looking at the records. Anyway, I will look up whatever you posted before. Thanks