Just How Horrible Has January Been Since 1980?

[snow_wizard]

The PNA was through the roof in Jan 1981 though, and was still positive in February. That January had some serious torching. Petersburg, AK set the state record high for the month (62 on the 16th) and BLI hit 65 a week later on the 22nd. 

 

The point I was making is given the context of that winter the PNA shouldn't have been positive.  It defied the odds given the setup going into it.

[snow_wizard]

Global warming is causing a huge impact on the weather that is why they are saying that the weather is changing every year. There are sudden weather changes in the weather in some areas like typhoons and storm.

You have made large effort to gather the records. I appreciate your effort...

 

Thank you!

 

I think there is something of a cyclical nature to our January woes given the fact the change in that month far exceeds anything that has showed up in global average temps.

[wx_statman]

The point I was making is given the context of that winter the PNA shouldn't have been positive.  It defied the odds given the setup going into it.

 

I see. I'm not very well versed in indices. 

[ShawniganLake]

I remember late Dec / early Jan 1984-85 Bellingham got nailed with wicked cold, snow, and wind while most other places were far milder albeit still chilly.

 

No doubt the Sept 1983 through Dec 1985 period was pretty special for cold in the NW.

Not sure if it was a localized event, but late October had a pretty notable cold snap in 1984.  32/25 here on Oct. 31st with a 7.5" snowfall on Halloween Night. 

 

Edit. I see the lower Fraser dropped into the teens with that event. 

[BLI snowman]

Late Nov 2014 and probably Nov 2010...

 

No doubt we are due for a big Fraser river blast though.

Portland pretty much had Fraser River outflow with the 2010 event. Had NW winds the entire time but still stayed below freezing. Very impressive.

[BLI snowman]

Neither one of those events had major Gorge outflow. I was thinking more along the lines of a major, regional Arctic airmass where both the Fraser and Gorge outflows were alive and kicking. Events like February 2011, December 2013, and February 2014 fit the bill but the Gorge outflow was just as cold as Fraser outflow. There was no real advantage to being in Bellingham over Portland. This was not the case in events like January 1950, December 1964, December 1968, November 1985....and to a somewhat lesser extent December 2008. I guess they were never too common to begin with, if I really think about it. Maybe we're not due.

Bellingham definitely did better than Portland in the February 2011 event, as did Seattle. I would say there was a pretty clear N-S gradient with it.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure if it was a localized event, but late October had a pretty notable cold snap in 1984.  32/25 here on Oct. 31st with a 7.5" snowfall on Halloween Night. 

 

Edit. I see the lower Fraser dropped into the teens with that event. 

 

It got cold here too.  Some places around the area had snow on Halloween.  The mid 1980s rocked for cold.

[wx_statman]

Not sure if it was a localized event, but late October had a pretty notable cold snap in 1984.  32/25 here on Oct. 31st with a 7.5" snowfall on Halloween Night. 

 

Edit. I see the lower Fraser dropped into the teens with that event. 

 

That was a major regional event. 

[wx_statman]

Bellingham definitely did better than Portland in the February 2011 event, as did Seattle. I would say there was a pretty clear N-S gradient with it.

 

BLI was 29/16 and PDX was 33/18. Its essentially a wash. 

[BLI snowman]

BLI was 29/16 and PDX was 33/18. Its essentially a wash. 

 

Bellingham did basically manage four days below freezing with that, though. The 23rd through the 26th.

[wx_statman]

Bellingham did basically manage four days below freezing with that, though. The 23rd through the 26th.

 

I see what you're saying.

 

This stuff can get very subjective! 

[BLI snowman]

Not sure if it was a localized event, but late October had a pretty notable cold snap in 1984.  32/25 here on Oct. 31st with a 7.5" snowfall on Halloween Night. 

 

Edit. I see the lower Fraser dropped into the teens with that event. 

 

That was the only October subfreezing high on record for BLI, and Seattle managed a high of 41 on October 31 with snow showers.

 

Much less impressive further south of Seattle though. Not on the level of 2003, 1971, 1935, or 1919 which are the late October/early November standards for regional events. 

[BLI snowman]

I see what you're saying.

 

This stuff can get very subjective! 

 

[wx_statman]

 

Penn and Teller. That's hilarious.

[wx_statman]

That was the only October subfreezing high on record for BLI, and Seattle managed a high of 41 on October 31 with snow showers.

 

Much less impressive further south of Seattle though. Not on the level of 2003, 1971, 1935, or 1919 which are the late October/early November standards for regional events. 

 

It was definitely a regional event as far as his region is concerned though - BC. 

[BLI snowman]

It was definitely a regional event as far as his region is concerned though - BC. 

 

True. Very impressive event for everyone north of Seattle. And BLI even managed their subfreezing day with wimpy Fraser River outflow, just weak 15-25mph stuff.

[TT-SEA]

It got cold here too.  Some places around the area had snow on Halloween.  The mid 1980s rocked for cold.

 

 

El Chichon

[Front Ranger]

El Chichon

 

May have helped some. But didn't lower global temps nearly as much as Pinatubo.

[wx_statman]

I remember late Dec / early Jan 1984-85 Bellingham got nailed with wicked cold, snow, and wind while most other places were far milder albeit still chilly.

 

No doubt the Sept 1983 through Dec 1985 period was pretty special for cold in the NW.

 

The mid-February 1986 Fraser blast is another one that tends to get overlooked here. It was impressive for Whatcom County. 

[wx_statman]

Bellingham definitely did better than Portland in the February 2011 event, as did Seattle. I would say there was a pretty clear N-S gradient with it.

 

FWIW - and I didn't really address this last night as much as I should have - but I don't agree that February 2011 had a clear N-S gradient, when you look at the region as a whole. Raymond out on the coast got 6.4" of snow and fell to 15. Ashland hit 7 degrees.  

[BLI snowman]

FWIW - and I didn't really address this last night as much as I should have - but I don't agree that February 2011 had a clear N-S gradient, when you look at the region as a whole. Raymond out on the coast got 6.4" of snow and fell to 15. Ashland hit 7 degrees.  

 

Medford's coldest high was 39, Roseburg's 38, Eugene's 36, Salem's 36, Portland's 33, Olympia's 30, Seattle's 31, Everett's 29, Bellingham's 29.

 

Certainly not as dramatic as some events, but I think there was a pretty clear N-S gradient among I-5 stations with regards to the strength of the low level cold air advection. To add to that, it was more of a Fraser River gap event than a Columbia River one. YXX peaked with 40mph gusts with the outflow on 2/24 while TTD only peaked at 29mph on 2/25. Not much gorge influence at all.

 

I would say there was a clear distinction between it and our true backdoor, more easterly directed late February airmasses like 1960, 1962, 1993, and 2006.

[wx_statman]

Medford's coldest high was 39, Roseburg's 38, Eugene's 36, Salem's 36, Portland's 33, Olympia's 30, Seattle's 31, Everett's 29, Bellingham's 29.

 

Certainly not as dramatic as some events, but I think there was a pretty clear N-S gradient among I-5 stations with regards to the strength of the low level cold air advection. To add to that, it was more of a Fraser River gap event than a Columbia River one. YXX peaked with 40mph gusts with the outflow on 2/24 while TTD only peaked at 29mph on 2/25. Not much gorge influence at all.

 

I would say there was a clear distinction between it and our true backdoor, more easterly directed late February airmasses like 1960, 1962, 1993, and 2006.

 

I would chalk that up more to late-season sun angle. You're talking a difference between 42 and 49 north. Pretty significant with late Feb sun angles. 

 

The minimums were fairly uniform up and down the I-5 corridor outside of a few exceptions (5F at OLM, etc). There was virtually no temperature gradient between the Portland metro and BLI, just a couple degrees. That's really what I was talking about. I'm not too concerned about maximums at RBG or MFR. 

[Front Ranger]

I would chalk that up more to late-season sun angle. You're talking a difference between 42 and 49 north. Pretty significant with late Feb sun angles. 

 

The minimums were fairly uniform up and down the I-5 corridor outside of a few exceptions (5F at OLM, etc). There was virtually no temperature gradient between the Portland metro and BLI, just a couple degrees. That's really what I was talking about. I'm not too concerned about maximums at RBG or MFR. 

 

This record is rarely mentioned, but extremely impressive. Latest in the season for OLM to record a temp that cold, by over 2 weeks. Next closest was 2/6/89.

[BLI snowman]

I would chalk that up more to late-season sun angle. You're talking a difference between 42 and 49 north. Pretty significant with late Feb sun angles. 

 

The minimums were fairly uniform up and down the I-5 corridor outside of a few exceptions (5F at OLM, etc). There was virtually no temperature gradient between the Portland metro and BLI, just a couple degrees. That's really what I was talking about. I'm not too concerned about maximums at RBG or MFR. 

 

I'm sure it played a part, but really I was talking about the lack of gorge outflow compared to Fraser River outflow, and the fact that Seattle experienced colder and roughly equal strength outflow compared to Portland. That only really happens when there's more of a NNE element to the trajectory of the airmass as opposed to ENE, you know?

 

And EUG only bottomed out at 19, not super impressive considering their radiational cooling prowess.

[wx_statman]

This record is rarely mentioned, but extremely impressive. Latest in the season for OLM to record a temp that cold, by over 2 weeks. Next closest was 2/6/89.

 

Yeah that 5F was a jaw dropper. OLM stayed in the 20's all afternoon on 2/26 despite a south wind. Impressive event. 

[wx_statman]

I'm sure it played a part, but really I was talking about the lack of gorge outflow compared to Fraser River outflow, and the fact that Seattle experienced colder and roughly equal strength outflow compared to Portland. That only really happens when there's more of a NNE element to the trajectory of the airmass as opposed to ENE, you know?

 

And EUG only bottomed out at 19, not super impressive considering their radiational cooling prowess.

 

Sure, I don't disagree with any of that. You have to remember the only reason I brought up Feb 2011 was because it didn't produce super impressive cold weather @ BLI compared to some other regional Arctic blasts on the books. 

[Deweydog]

Surface high pressure never really got all that high in the Columbia Basin in February 2011.  Probably due to more of a diurnal component at that point and the fact that trough split quite a bit as it evolved. 

[BLI snowman]

Sure, I don't disagree with any of that. You have to remember the only reason I brought up Feb 2011 was because it didn't produce super impressive cold weather @ BLI compared to some other regional Arctic blasts on the books. 

 

Yeah, it just wasn't a great event up there in general honestly. We missed out on the snow-bonanza by about 5 miles, Lake Samish had upwards of 7-8" while Mt. Vernon-Burlington generally had 15"+. Thankfully the storm on 2/23/2014 was the total inverse of that, three years to the day later.

[wx_statman]

Looking at data for Twentynine Palms in the high desert of So. California -

 

This town experienced two tremendously cold January's in 1937 (35.4F) and 1949 (35.5F), against a long-term average of 49.4F. Their coldest January since 1989 has been 48.1F, in 2004. 

 

The historically ridgy January 2014 produced an average of 58.6F, which was 3F warmer than the previous warmest January.