Just How Horrible Has January Been Since 1980?

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yup, it's just as much about the intensity (relative to the width and latitude) in that regard, too. Despite similar cell latitudes/widths in the late 1800s, the strength ratios were opposing.

 

When do you think the Hadley Cells are going to contract and move equatorward once again at least somewhat like they were in the middle of the 20th Century?

[wx_statman]

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/brianwinter.jpg

 

Cold waves like November 1985 really bring to light the front-loaded nature of our winters. As far as I'm aware its the only example of a mid-latitude cold wave producing all-time record cold in the month of November in either North America or Eurasia, although November 1952 might have also accomplished this feat in central Asia. November 1985 actually set an impressive amount of all-time record lows in coastal SW BC, some of which you might be aware of since you're from that area. That's definitely a unique occurrence at least in North America. The seasonal lag east of the Rockies makes all-time record cold before December 15th almost impossible. 

[wx_statman]

These changes in the Walker/Hadley ratios are reflected in the IOD/ENSO relationship, too.

 

We haven't had a La Niña w/ a coherent -IOD cell since the 1970s, and 1975-76 (the last manifestation of this dynamic) featured a weakening -IOD cell weakening dominated by a powerful +PV/+NAM due to a weak BDC/O^3 transport.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/85841EC0-FED2-4088-8608-BB75D15F91C3_zpslucfk6pe.jpg

 

Well, we definitely don't want a Nino with -IOD or a Nina with a +IOD. Both 1930-31 and 1999-00 were disasters here. 

[Phil]

When do you think the Hadley Cells are going to contract and move equatorward once again at least somewhat like they were in the middle of the 20th Century?

Well, long term trends in cell latitude (alone) appear to mostly be a function of solar forcing (ENSO/QBO have shorter term effects), on a decadal scale (through multiple conduits), running on somewhat of a lag. Cell latitude appears to have peaked, as migration has slowed/stopped since 2005, though no contraction is evident yet.

 

Cell intensity and zonal/meridional ratios in mass/momentum transport are more complicated, influenced by a number of factors, from solar forcing, to longer term resonant tendencies in thermal/SST gradients/photochemical forcings, etc.

[Phil]

Well, we definitely don't want a Nino with -IOD or a Nina with a +IOD. Both 1930-31 and 1999-00 were disasters here.

 

Yeah, also some of those neutral IOD years could probably be classified into "leans positive" or "leans negative".

 

The strongest correlation for you guys is actually the QBO state @ 50mb in conjunction w/ ENSO. You guys do best under a Niña/+QBO couplet.

 

In Niños, you guys do best with a -QBO. In all cases, regardless of ENSO, weak solar forcing improves your chances, minus the BDC/O^3 driven nightmare of 1975-76.

[Phil]

Speaking of the IOD..major negative phase underway. Will this hold into winter? Or will it collapse in October as it has tended to do in recent years?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/27C7C93D-DC69-491D-8275-3BAC976B5CF8_zpsy80dmqal.png

[Phil]

Boreal winter IOD back to the 1870s..winter of 1880, 1916, and 1950 say hi.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E40B8EA0-FE8D-4803-AC3B-ADA16270FCD3_zps9a5spqoj.png

[BLI snowman]

I just find it funny how some of you are so offended by someone bringing up other sides of the coin. Almost a religious dogma element to things. How dare someone not bow down to the sacred January Curse - it's all that matters. Burn the heretic!

 

It's silly. I've acknowledged many times that January has been a monumental failure, and it definitely sucks because that's the month that holds the most potential. And I've never said that the other months have made up for January's shortcomings.

 

But it is noteworthy that Nov/Dec have actually seen an uptick in significant events/cold months over the same period that January has nosedived. That's all. No need to get so offended.

I am deeply offended. Dare I say, triggered, even.

 

I long to retreat to my safe space and frolic in the frozen fields of frigid Januaries past.

[Front Ranger]

I am deeply offended. Dare I say, triggered, even.

 

I long to retreat to my safe space and frolic in the frozen fields of frigid Januaries past.

Alliteration is always awesome. Unlike January.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, also some of those neutral IOD years could probably be classified into "leans positive" or "leans negative".

 

The strongest correlation for you guys is actually the QBO state @ 50mb in conjunction w/ ENSO. You guys do best under a Niña/+QBO couplet.

 

In Niños, you guys do best with a -QBO. In all cases, regardless of ENSO, weak solar forcing improves your chances, minus the BDC/O^3 driven nightmare of 1975-76.

 

That's a winter that really tried to deliver here but couldn't quite get over the hump. The PNW saw modified Arctic airmasses in late November, in early February (this one brought 2" to Sacramento), and again in early March. We saw the PV slide into central Alberta in January (-50F in Edmonton on the 7th), but with no effects on the PNW. The end result for PDX was a cold season that never fell below 24. 

[snow_wizard]

image.jpeg

 

It is interesting how Alaska and the PNW are dead opposites in the trend of the winter mid point.  Makes it seem like there might be a cyclical aspect to it.

[BLI snowman]

That's a winter that really tried to deliver here but couldn't quite get over the hump. The PNW saw modified Arctic airmasses in late November, in early February (this one brought 2" to Sacramento), and again in early March. We saw the PV slide into central Alberta in January (-50F in Edmonton on the 7th), but with no effects on the PNW. The end result for PDX was a cold season that never fell below 24. 

 

That early February 1976 airmass is a testament to the importance of sun angle and low level CAA. 850mb temps of -12 to -13c over Portland, by all means a major upper level event, and yet we couldn't score a high below 39.

[wx_statman]

That early February 1976 airmass is a testament to the importance of sun angle and low level CAA. 850mb temps of -12 to -13c over Portland, by all means a major upper level event, and yet we couldn't score a high below 39.

 

2/5/1976 was a real bummer. East winds around 20mph all afternoon with DP's around 0, but PDX still hit 42. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1976/2/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Portland&req_state=OR&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=97238&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

The high was 20 at Gov't Camp. 

[BLI snowman]

2/5/1976 was a real bummer. East winds around 20mph all afternoon with DP's around 0, but PDX still hit 42. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1976/2/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Portland&req_state=OR&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=97238&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

The high was 20 at Gov't Camp. 

 

Would have been some pissed off weenies here that day, especially with this

 

[Black Hole]

Boreal winter IOD back to the 1870s..winter of 1880, 1916, and 1950 say hi.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E40B8EA0-FE8D-4803-AC3B-ADA16270FCD3_zps9a5spqoj.png

You should start a new thread about the IOD. I think most on this forum know little about it, but it is important, so maybe that would help. 

 

Also, a good list of years on there. But to be clear, is each year based on the Dec month, or the Jan-Feb months? I would assume the latter. 

 

If I am reading it right the lowest ten are: 

Note: A few of these are essentially tied but otherwise it goes in order. 

 

1. 1880

2. 1978

3. 1875

4. 1949

5. 1932

6. 1945

7. 1916

8. 1975

9. 1950

10. 1968

[wx_statman]

You should start a new thread about the IOD. I think most on this forum know little about it, but it is important, so maybe that would help. 

 

Also, a good list of years on there. But to be clear, is each year based on the Dec month, or the Jan-Feb months? I would assume the latter. 

 

If I am reading it right the lowest ten are: 

Note: A few of these are essentially tied but otherwise it goes in order. 

 

1. 1880

2. 1978

3. 1875

4. 1949

5. 1932

6. 1945

7. 1916

8. 1975

9. 1950

10. 1968

 

Interesting that the second highest IOD was in 1871-72, a winter that brought 50" to downtown Portland with three major Arctic outbreaks. 

[Front Ranger]

It's been awhile since I looked into it, but from what I remember, the IOD is a factor but did not seem nearly as significant as ENSO, PDO, QBO for U.S. weather patterns.

[Black Hole]

It's been awhile since I looked into it, but from what I remember, the IOD is a factor but did not seem nearly as significant as ENSO, PDO, QBO for U.S. weather patterns.

That wouldn't surprise me since it is halfway around the world.

 

We really have to look at all of this stuff together, which is why it can be difficult when different forcings are fighting each other (PNA, EPO,NAO, IOD, and so forth). I do think it plays a role in the MJO phase which matters, but isn't the whole story of course. 

[Phil]

It's been awhile since I looked into it, but from what I remember, the IOD is a factor but did not seem nearly as significant as ENSO, PDO, QBO for U.S. weather patterns.

There's a strong correlation between the July-January IOD and EPO sign, especially when tuning for ENSO/QBO/solar.

 

Then again, the IOD and QBO are often synchronized anyway given the QBO effect on tropical convection, so really ENSO/solar provide more in the way of destructive interference.

[Phil]

Right now, I'm getting a huge mixed bag in regards to potential analog years. Focusing mostly on -ENSO/+QBO leanings, weighted for solar forcing and general SSTA homogeneity.

 

Years since 1950 that fit neutral/negative ENSO/+QBO50mb, without factoring in solar/PDO et al, include 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, 1999/00, 1995/96, 1990/91, 1985/86, 1983/84, 1980/81, 1978/79, 1975/76, 1973-74, 1971/72, 1966/67, 1964/65, 1961/62, 1959/60, and 1955/56.

 

Of these potential analog years, weighting them for AAM balance, solar/strat coherence, and ENSO/PDO amplitude leaves us with 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985/86, 1980/81, 1978/79, 1961/62, and 1959/60.

 

For now, my preferred analog years are 2010/11, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1980/81, 1978/79, and 1959/60, and 1942/43.

[wx_statman]

Right now, I'm getting a huge mixed bag in regards to potential analog years. Focusing mostly on -ENSO/+QBO leanings, weighted for solar forcing and general SSTA homogeneity.

 

Years since 1950 that fit neutral/negative ENSO/+QBO50mb, without factoring in solar/PDO et al, include 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, 1999/00, 1995/96, 1990/91, 1985/86, 1983/84, 1980/81, 1978/79, 1975/76, 1973-74, 1971/72, 1966/67, 1964/65, 1961/62, 1959/60, and 1955/56.

 

Of these potential analog years, weighting them for AAM balance, solar/strat coherence, and ENSO/PDO amplitude leaves us with 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985/86, 1980/81, 1978/79, 1961/62, and 1959/60.

 

For now, my preferred analog years are 2010/11, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1980/81, 1978/79, and 1959/60, and 1942/43.

 

Only one loser in that bunch for Portland and Seattle. 1980-81. A -ENSO winter with plenty of -EPO still found a way to torch us. Biggest culprits were probably the massive +PNA in January and the +PDO throughout the cold season. 

 

The rest were pretty good here. 

[Front Ranger]

Only one loser in that bunch for Portland and Seattle. 1980-81. A -ENSO winter with plenty of -EPO still found a way to torch us. Biggest culprits were probably the massive +PNA in January and the +PDO throughout the cold season. 

 

The rest were pretty good here. 

 

We are due for a Fraser Valley special...

[wx_statman]

We are due for a Fraser Valley special...

 

They got theirs in January 2012. 

[Front Ranger]

They got theirs in January 2012. 

 

They did well, but that was more of a Chehalis Gap special.

[wx_statman]

They did well, but that was more of a Chehalis Gap special.

 

I think I read you. I'm not even sure what the last "Fraser Valley special" would be. December 2008?

[Front Ranger]

I think I read you. I'm not even sure what the last "Fraser Valley special" would be. December 2008?

One of the Dec 2008 storms. But probably Nov 2006. 2002 is another good example. Basically, when they kick everyone else's a**, and it's not close. Like Dec 1980.

[BLI snowman]

One of the Dec 2008 storms. But probably Nov 2006. 2002 is another good example. Basically, when they kick everyone else's a**, and it's not close. Like Dec 1980.

You mean like 2/23/2014?

[Front Ranger]

You mean like 2/23/2014?

 

Yeah, that storm was. But for that winter, other places did just as well or better for snowfall. We're due for a winter where northern areas dominate. They did in 2010-11, I guess, but some areas south of Seattle still did ok for snowfall and the Arctic air had no trouble penetrating south. 

 

Winters like 2006-07, 2004-05, 2001-02, 1996-97, 1990-91, 1984-85, 1981-82, 1980-81, 1970-71, 1964-65.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, that storm was. But for that winter, other places did just as well or better for snowfall. We're due for a winter where northern areas dominate. They did in 2010-11, I guess, but some areas south of Seattle still did ok for snowfall and the Arctic air had no trouble penetrating south.

 

Winters like 2006-07, 2004-05, 2001-02, 1996-97, 1990-91, 1984-85, 1981-82, 1980-81, 1970-71, 1964-65.

2007-08 was also tremendously snowy near the border. I think Abbotsford topped 40" that year. Then Bellingham had maybe 16" and down it went from there. Those borderline level airmasses are what they mostly need.

[wx_statman]

One of the Dec 2008 storms. But probably Nov 2006. 2002 is another good example. Basically, when they kick everyone else's a**, and it's not close. Like Dec 1980.

 

To be fair, Forks also got hammered in early December 1980 with 13" of snow and a 34/19 day. There was a pretty distinct N-S gradient. 

 

And I guess I misread you about the "Fraser Special." For some reason I thought you were talking about a regional Arctic airmass where the Fraser outflow is clearly colder and more pronounced than Gorge outflow. That hasn't happened since December 2008.

[snow_wizard]

Only one loser in that bunch for Portland and Seattle. 1980-81. A -ENSO winter with plenty of -EPO still found a way to torch us. Biggest culprits were probably the massive +PNA in January and the +PDO throughout the cold season. 

 

The rest were pretty good here. 

 

1980-81 is a really interesting case.  I have dissected that season and always come to the conclusion it should have been a great winter here.  The general pattern in the summer was one that often leads to good winters.  That one and 1933-34 are probably the most confounding winters on record here.

[snow_wizard]

To be fair, Forks also got hammered in early December 1980 with 13" of snow and a 34/19 day. There was a pretty distinct N-S gradient. 

 

And I guess I misread you about the "Fraser Special." For some reason I thought you were talking about a regional Arctic airmass where the Fraser outflow is clearly colder and more pronounced than Gorge outflow. That hasn't happened since December 2008.

 

Late Nov 2014 and probably Nov 2010...

 

No doubt we are due for a big Fraser river blast though.

[wx_statman]

1980-81 is a really interesting case.  I have dissected that season and always come to the conclusion it should have been a great winter here.  The general pattern in the summer was one that often leads to good winters.  That one and 1933-34 are probably the most confounding winters on record here.

 

The PNA was through the roof in Jan 1981 though, and was still positive in February. That January had some serious torching. Petersburg, AK set the state record high for the month (62 on the 16th) and BLI hit 65 a week later on the 22nd. 

[wx_statman]

Late Nov 2014 and probably Nov 2010...

 

No doubt we are due for a big Fraser river blast though.

 

Neither one of those events had major Gorge outflow. I was thinking more along the lines of a major, regional Arctic airmass where both the Fraser and Gorge outflows were alive and kicking. Events like February 2011, December 2013, and February 2014 fit the bill but the Gorge outflow was just as cold as Fraser outflow. There was no real advantage to being in Bellingham over Portland. This was not the case in events like January 1950, December 1964, December 1968, November 1985....and to a somewhat lesser extent December 2008. I guess they were never too common to begin with, if I really think about it. Maybe we're not due. 

[Front Ranger]

Neither one of those events had major Gorge outflow. I was thinking more along the lines of a major, regional Arctic airmass where both the Fraser and Gorge outflows were alive and kicking. Events like February 2011, December 2013, and February 2014 fit the bill but the Gorge outflow was just as cold as Fraser outflow. There was no real advantage to being in Bellingham over Portland. This was not the case in events like January 1950, December 1964, December 1968, November 1985....and to a somewhat lesser extent December 2008. I guess they were never too common to begin with, if I really think about it. Maybe we're not due. 

 

Well yeah, if you totally change the definition! 

[wx_statman]

Well yeah, if you totally change the definition! 

 

I was only referencing the stuff I was talking about. No offense meant.

[snow_wizard]

Neither one of those events had major Gorge outflow. I was thinking more along the lines of a major, regional Arctic airmass where both the Fraser and Gorge outflows were alive and kicking. Events like February 2011, December 2013, and February 2014 fit the bill but the Gorge outflow was just as cold as Fraser outflow. There was no real advantage to being in Bellingham over Portland. This was not the case in events like January 1950, December 1964, December 1968, November 1985....and to a somewhat lesser extent December 2008. I guess they were never too common to begin with, if I really think about it. Maybe we're not due. 

 

I remember late Dec / early Jan 1984-85 Bellingham got nailed with wicked cold, snow, and wind while most other places were far milder albeit still chilly.

 

No doubt the Sept 1983 through Dec 1985 period was pretty special for cold in the NW.

[ShawniganLake]

2007-08 was also tremendously snowy near the border. I think Abbotsford topped 40" that year. Then Bellingham had maybe 16" and down it went from there. Those borderline level airmasses are what they mostly need.

43.8" at YXX that winter. 

 

55" here at Shawnigan Lake while they saw just 15" at Victoria YYJ. 

[wx_statman]

I remember late Dec / early Jan 1984-85 Bellingham got nailed with wicked cold, snow, and wind while most other places were far milder albeit still chilly.

 

No doubt the Sept 1983 through Dec 1985 period was pretty special for cold in the NW.

 

That doesn't match the kind of cold waves I was talking about specifically. But since you brought it up yeah that was a tremendous cold wave for BC, with just enough spillage into Whatcom County to make it special there too. We touched on it last night but its a really underrated cold wave on this forum since it almost never gets brought up in any discussions. Even by the people here who are really into past weather stats. 

 

Excellent stretch of winter weather @ BLI:

 

12/28/84 - 33/21 7.5" snow

12/29/84 - 22/16 4.7" snow

12/30/84 - 20/15 1.6" snow

12/31/84 - 21/12

01/01/85 - 25/13

01/02/85 - 34/20

 

Even more impressive in BC. Low of -46F in Prince George. A number of newer stations that only go back to the 1970's (missing events like 1968) have their December record lows from 12/30-12/31/1984, including -49F in Mackenzie and -17F in Lytton. 

[ClaireAnderson]

The January monthly averages for Clearbrook and Landsburg paint a truly shocking picture of just how lame that month has become.  I think Justin summed it up quite humorously (tragic comedy) when he called the once respectable month..."The Artist Formerly Known As January..."

 

January is single handedly responsible for the demise of our winters since November, December, and February haven't really changed THAT much.

 

Anyway here is a list of the coldest Januaries for Clearbrook and Landsburg.  At the end of each list I will enter the coldest January since 1980 and the coldest January of the 2000s.  Keep in mind these are rural stations so urban heat island is not a factor.

 

Clearbrook January averages below 30.0 (records date back to 1903).  Some of these are comparable to some of the coldest Januaries ever recorded in NYC.

 

1950 - 17.2

1916 - 22.7

1937 - 23.0

1907 - 23.3

1969 - 23.4

1930 - 25.9

1957 - 26.9

1911-  27.7

1943 - 27.7

1929 - 28.4

1913 - 28.6

1979 - 28.6

1949 - 29.1

1954 - 29.9

 

Coldest since 1980 - 1993 - 30.7

Coldest of the 21st C - 35.6 (astonishing)

 

 

Landsburg January averages below 32.0 (records go back to 1916)

 

1950 - 24.9

1937 - 26.6

1916 - 27.6

1930 - 28.1

1949 - 29.1

1929 - 29.9

1957 - 30.0

1969 - 30.9

1979 - 31.8

1943 - 31.9

 

Coldest since 1980 - 2013 - 34.7 (counts for coldest of the 21st C also)

 

Every time I look at these numbers I can hardly believe how badly the month of January has deteriorated over the last 35 years.

Global warming is causing a huge impact on the weather that is why they are saying that the weather is changing every year. There are sudden weather changes in the weather in some areas like typhoons and storm.

You have made large effort to gather the records. I appreciate your effort...