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December Observations and Discussions


gosaints

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GEFS Para show a hemispheric pattern change come mid month.  Will this be the onset of a wild finish to the month???

 

Practically all global models are picking up a huge ridge in NE Canada and a (west-based) Greenland Block mid month along with ridging in the NE Pacific.  

will have to see how this plays out. Not sure how it holds up over a large area but here I GRR looking at just the 5 strong to very strong El Nino winters since 1950 all have at least one winter month that either much above or much below average ranging from +7.1 Feb 1998 to -6.5 in Feb of 1958. 

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will have to see how this plays out. Not sure how it holds up over a large area but here I GRR looking at just the 5 strong to very strong El Nino winters since 1950 all have at least one winter month that either much above or much below average ranging from +7.1 Feb 1998 to -6.5 in Feb of 1958. 

True, but every year is different and I'm sure December will likely end up above normal for a large portion of the U.S., except for the west/south & central Plains states.  It'll be interesting to see if the pattern does change mid month and how much this will influence overall departures.

 

Meantime, both GFS/Euro picking up on yet another Plains wintry system Day 8-9.  Incredible pattern with system after system targeting this region.  This is going to be their year.  I can't wait to see these storms cycle through when the northern branch begins to influence the pattern.

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Fantasy Land GFS showing the LRC pattern repeating where the remnants of Hurricane Patricia phased with a northern piece back on Oct 27-28th.  This time there won't be a Hurricane but instead, Gulf energy.  It's fascinating to see when a model is "right" and when it is "wrong", knowing that the pattern cycles.  This would be about a 45-47 day cycle period.  Similar to last year's weak El Nino cycle.

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The first 2 weeks are gonna torch, there's no question about it, however, I have a good sense that the pattern is going to change quite a bit mid month and leading up towards Christmas.  Climate models and analogs all point towards blocking developing in this type of pattern as we roll on through December.  I'm seeing remarkable agreement by the GEFS/EPS/CFSv2 in terms of blocking building up farther north and poking into the arctic by mid month, esp later.

 

CFSv2 is seeing a cross polar connection from Siberia across the pole into North America Week 3-4...something we have yet to see this season.  Notice the STJ pounding away into Cali.  The CFSv2 has a wintry look for the back half of the month and the EPS is showing a major trough developing in the Plains by the 12th/13th that may be the lead system that ignites the colder pattern.  Something I'll be looking forward to, hopefully this time it can hit and hold.

 

Day 16-20...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015112818/cfs-avg_mslpa5d_nhem_4.png

 

Day 21-25...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015112818/cfs-avg_mslpa5d_nhem_5.png

 

The Aleutian Low retrogrades farther back west

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CFS was showing the same thing for November pretty much... didn't quite turn out as expected, lol.

Not really, it had a very warm look up until the 20th when I saw the Siberian connection evolving.  Even though it did not get crazy cold, the central/southern Plains cooled dramatically compared to how warm it was the first 20 days.  If we were to have a -AO/-NAO during that arctic outbreak, it would have been much more brutal.  Instead, both the AO/NAO were sky high and only the EPO played ball.

 

As we move forward into the season, I don't see how we can manage to keep a +AO/+NAO consistently.  Possible SSW, JMA Weeklies, analogs all are suggesting we start developing blocking this month sometime, most likely later half of the month.

 

You'll get your torch, it was inevitable.  I was expecting it this month but not like last year where it lasts all December long.  Most of the big Winters had a huge torch in December for the first part of the month, then things turned on a dime.

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Yeah, the torch was going to happen.  I saw it coming weeks back.  This is the warm part of the LRC that we saw in October.  Pullbacks are pretty common, certainly doesn't mean the end of December will be warm.

Exactly...however, the one part of the LRC that produced near record heat is supposed to cycle back around the Winter Solstice which would suck really bad leading us towards Christmas time.  I had to check my notes on the dates when this long warm spell hit back in early Nov 2nd - 7th...and I think the LRC cycle is roughly 45-47 days.  I sure hope there is a lot of blocking around to alleviate the warmth. 

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CFS was showing the same thing for November pretty much... didn't quite turn out as expected, lol.

Well, I (and many others) received atleast 1/3 of their season's total snowfall in this timeframe so I think it worked out pretty well. And more snow on the way the next couple of days to end out November. The one thing we have not had yet is a true arctic outbreak, but it's only November yet.

 

Actually, last Saturday night I had a record low of -5 after the storm departed. But it wasn't a true arctic attack and was mainly driven by the thick snowcover.

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Over the last 2 days, the CFSv2 has been trending colder over NW NAMER & West/Central CONUS Week 3 & 4.  Tonight's recent 12z CFSv2 run is beginning to sniff out the pattern change I think is coming mid month.  Let's see if it continues this trend.

 

November 27th run...

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151127.NAsfcT.gif

 

November 28th run...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151128.NAsfcT.gif

 

I suspect tomorrow's run to be even colder as its weeklies have been pulling the ridge farther north and opening the door to the arctic.  GGEM/GFS/GFS Par/Euro Ensembles are all starting to see this in the extended, however, it's to far out to show a lot of consistency.  Over the next week, we should be getting a good idea.

 

Tonight's run, the CFSv2 see's the colder pattern around the 19th and beyond into the open of January.  Again, I'd like to see more of these runs to show some consistency.  It might be late to the party, but the party will still go on!

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Arctic temps about to go below normal with the current +AO/NAO...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

 

 

I'm going to be curious to see what this does to the temps in the lower 48 once we get some blocking.

Highs forecasted to be -10 midweek at prudhoe bay. Some very cold air ready to be flooded into the lower 48, just a matter of time.

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GFS not really showing much of a pattern change in the long range either.

Pattern change is coming around mid month, maybe even as early as the 13th (ish).  I'm sure you won't see the GFS have run after run of cold in the extended.  On top of that, the crashing SOI is going to wreck havoc on the models.  

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 29 Nov 2015

Average for last 30 days -2.99

Average for last 90 days -13.79

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -24.69

 

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Well, I (and many others) received atleast 1/3 of their season's total snowfall in this timeframe so I think it worked out pretty well. And more snow on the way the next couple of days to end out November. The one thing we have not had yet is a true arctic outbreak, but it's only November yet.

 

Actually, last Saturday night I had a record low of -5 after the storm departed. But it wasn't a true arctic attack and was mainly driven by the thick snowcover.

And many other areas have yet to receive any measurable snow, like Buffalo for example (record latest measurable snow there is Dec 3 back in 1899, and they'll more than likely blow way past that).

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I don't believe there are too many active posters on here that get enthusiastic about a blow torch that is certainly going to take hold over the first 2 weeks of the month.  

 

And many other areas have yet to receive any measurable snow, like Buffalo for example (record latest measurable snow there is Dec 3 back in 1899, and they'll more than likely blow way past that).

Nature has its way of balancing out.  Last November they had record amounts of snowfall from the November Arctic attack that dumped 7 feet of LES over 3-4 days.  It was primarily a season where New England and parts of the east coast got dumped on.

 

This season, I expect the west/central CONUS to have the primary storm track.  The EC will get their storms, but I think later on in the season.

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The CFSv2 take on temp departures over the last 6 days...can you see the trend???

 

18z November 24th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2015112418/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

 

18z November 29th...CFSv2 is trying to show signs of pulling the main warmth NE into Central/Eastern Canada.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2015112918/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

 

It's starting to look like a blend of the CanSIPS model....which is prob over done a bit on the cold in the western 1/2 of the CONUS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015110100/cansips_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

 

Meanwhile, overnight 00z Ensemble suite of the global models are honing in on a mid month cold/stormy attack in the west/central CONUS.  GFS has been back and forth (as expected), but more runs turning the corner.

 

Target periods for storm systems are in the Plains/Midwest by the 11th/12th, then another likely larger more dynamic storm around the 15th-17th in the central states.

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Plenty of areas on this forum havent recieved anything measurable.  

 

Thankfully, we're miles ahead of 2011 though, when only a handful of counties had recorded much of anything.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Goodluck to any snow pack east of the rockies

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015113012/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

 

Need to get this latent heat out of the soil anyways so when snow does show up again, it's not melting from below more than above - lolz

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The CFSv2 take on temp departures over the last 6 days...can you see the trend???

 

18z November 24th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2015112418/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

 

18z November 29th...CFSv2 is trying to show signs of pulling the main warmth NE into Central/Eastern Canada.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2015112918/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

 

It's starting to look like a blend of the CanSIPS model....which is prob over done a bit on the cold in the western 1/2 of the CONUS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015110100/cansips_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

 

Meanwhile, overnight 00z Ensemble suite of the global models are honing in on a mid month cold/stormy attack in the west/central CONUS. GFS has been back and forth (as expected), but more runs turning the corner.

 

Target periods for storm systems are in the Plains/Midwest by the 11th/12th, then another likely larger more dynamic storm around the 15th-17th in the central states.

I'm pretty sure I described a blend of what these 2 are headed towards sometime back in mid-November. Cooler departures over the Canadian and US Rockies into the western areas of the central plains/southern plains answer SE US. The NE gets no winter til FEB. Lol

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After the past two winters, we definitely deserve it.

I say, "give me a 3-peat" just like Da Bulls did back in the 90's!  Ha!  I also feel the Plains deserve a wild Winter for what they have endured and usually if they have a solid winter, we do also.

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This winter will have its bouts of cold but any pattern resembling the last 2 wont be likely

Indeed, I highly doubt any returns of the PV in this type of pattern.  There may be one or possibly two in late Jan/Feb, but it all depends on how the SSW evolves, if it does at all.

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