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Thanksgiving Day - Black Friday Storm System


Tom

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Winter Storm Watches issued for E NE/W IA...what a forecast nightmare!

 

 
Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1056 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

...FROZEN MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW LIKELY THANKSGIVING...

.A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO IOWA TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS COLDER AIR MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY...A TRANSITION ZONE
OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND
LIGHT SNOW. THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA ARE AT
RISK OF RECEIVING BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20 INCHES OF ICE DURING THE
EVENT WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA.

IAZ046-057-058-070-071-081-082-260100-
/O.EXT.KDMX.WS.A.0005.151126T1900Z-151127T1200Z/
GREENE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-ADAMS-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...AUDUBON...EXIRA...
GUTHRIE CENTER...PANORA...BAYARD...CASEY...ATLANTIC...
GREENFIELD...STUART...ADAIR...FONTANELLE...CORNING...CRESTON
1056 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT.

* STORM TOTAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10
TO 0.20 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TWO INCHES OR LESS.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED SURFACES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ICY AND
TRAVEL IMPACTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPACT
MAY BE FROM ICE ACCUMULATING ON COLDER EXPOSED SURFACES OF
BUILDINGS ... TREES...AND WIRES. WITH WINDS INCREASING DURING
THE NIGHT THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF TREE DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
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Be nice to get that to drop south about 75 miles. Add 3-4 inches of snow on top of a .25 in ice.

 

12z NAM does drop it south and east.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The only reason they are issuing Winter Storm Warnings is because of it being Thanksgiving.  Winter Storm Warnings are usually for heavy snow accumulation, which is clearly not going to happen.  Not sure why they don't just issue a freezing rain advisory since that's pretty much the only major impact of this system.

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Winter storm watch because of freezing rain doesn't have to many people exciting. Rain elsewhere has others disappointed. The past day or two has been dead in here. This place lights up when the lakes and upper Midwest has snow forecasted.

I try to stay excited for the folks up north when they get snow and storms their way also. There are a few posters here though who do a much better job than I can describing the weather specific to that region so I leave it to them.

 

:yawn: Meanwhile seven inches of rain are coming my way. Woo freaking hoo. Lol. I can't really get excited about that.

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Interesting update by oax, cold air might be quicker than they thought thus the increase in snow totals.

 

 

 

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015

 

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY WERE DONE WITH

THIS UPDATE. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH THIS

UPDATE WAS TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR JUST A

TOUCH...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN A BAND FROM AROUND

KOLU TO KTQE.

 

GOING FORECAST APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH THE SFC

BOUNDARY ALMOST CLEAR OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH WITH ONLY KFNB AND

KICL STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. COMPARISON OF SFC OBSERVATIONS TO

MODELS INDICATE THAT MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE TEMPERATURES

DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE A BIT TO COOL DEEPER INTO THE

COOL SECTOR OVER NORTHERN NEB/SE SD. DESPITE THESE SMALL ERRORS OF

BEING TO WARM IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDER AIR IS GOING TO MAKE IT

IN HERE A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. THUS HAVE SPED UP THE

TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVERS ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING.

WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OMAHA METRO TO SEE

SOME FZRA BY 15Z WITH THE REST OF THE METRO SEEING FZRA BY 18Z. TO

THE NORTHWEST THERE IS A VERY NARROW BAND WHERE THE SOUNDINGS

SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AND GIVEN THE WEAK STABILITY /EVEN SOME UPRIGHT

INSTABILITY NOTED ON SOME NAM SOUNDINGS AROUND 15Z THU/ THERE

COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL IN

THIS ZONE TO 2 TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED

TO SEE AN ISOLATED 5 INCHES IN THERE AS WELL. GIVEN THE NARROW

BAND OF TRANSITION THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO A QUARTER

INCH OF FREEZING RAIN...EXCEPT IN PARTS OF SE NEB /I.E. KBIE AREA/

WHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF FZRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND

AMOUNTS COULD REACH 0.4 INCH. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WITH

ALL CONSIDERATIONS OF TOMORROW TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WARNINGS SEEM

VERY JUSTIFIED AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES

TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

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Had freezing drizzle overnight then sleet and now snowing at a good rate here in Holdrege. I will get pictures taken later but for now seems like about 1 inch has fallen.

Looks like you may queeze a couple inches from this system...your right on the northern edge though...at least your temps are in the upper 20's.  Is snow sticking on the streets/sidewalks?

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The reports of snow look fun, but the ice is another story imo. Have safe travels out in Nebraska and western Iowa.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

 

Would like to see some ice pictures though...

 

Intermittent heavy rain and low 50s here today.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Nice little glazing there^.

 

0.80" of rain here so far today. Still really mild outside. Made it to 57°.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This storm over performed for my area!! I just got back from David City; the roads were pretty much all ice but as long as you drove slow you were ok. I received 4" of snow, my first white thanksgiving in recent memory. That coupled along with a glaze of ice below makes for a sloppy mess around town. Our local station KOLN/KGIN's rpm model was the only model I seen call for 3-5" of snow in a small band. I'm pretty happy to say the least, I'll add some pics tomorrow! 

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This storm over performed for my area!! I just got back from David City; the roads were pretty much all ice but as long as you drove slow you were ok. I received 4" of snow, my first white thanksgiving in recent memory. That coupled along with a glaze of ice below makes for a sloppy mess around town. Our local station KOLN/KGIN's rpm model was the only model I seen call for 3-5" of snow in a small band. I'm pretty happy to say the least, I'll add some pics tomorrow!

Congrats! That's awesome!

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