Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 00z Euro...NW KS/NE/NW IA/MN special... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Blehh. Not a good thing to come home drunk to. Need about a 50 mile shiftski southeast from ze euro and I'd be satisfied. Usually not an advocate for the GFS, but my god I hope it's right! Hoping the SE trends continue! Yay snowstorms 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Hahaha I must admit I have a little laugh from the post above.. Sorry you had to come home to such a disappointing outcome from the Euro, plenty of time to shift though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 06Z NAM Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 WITH THE DEEPENING AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW ON MONDAY OCCURRING AS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AND MERGE WITHIN THE EXPANDING UPPER SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE BORDER BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE RATE OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT NAM/ECMWF/UKMET AND CANADIAN FOR THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEMBERS. [attachment=5682:day3_composite.gif] Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 06Z GFS now shifting to the NW-- gonna be a nightmare forecast for Central Iowa. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 From DMX morning disco- SOME THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THIS STORM WILL BE LOWER STATIC STABILITY NOTED BY THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME TOKEN MUCAPES AND POTENTIALLY THUNDER...AND THE GFS WHICH HAS AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST WARMER THAN -5C IN THE LOWEST 1.5KM WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO BE SOMEWHAT WET AND STICKY. INCREASING WINDS TUE COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME MINOR TREE ISSUES IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER IT NEEDS TO BE EMPHASIZED THAT ALL THESE DETAILS /TRACK...ASSOCIATED QPF...DGZ OMEGA PHASING...ETC/ COULD CAUSE BIG FORECAST VARIANCES MOVING FORWARD WITH THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL KICK THE NV/UT CLOSED LOW OUT STILL WELL OFF THE CA COAST THIS MORNING. THE MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS UNTIL SUN RUNS WHEN IT COMES ON SHORE. THUS NO WATCH AS OF YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Nws Hastings is saying this looks like the biggest storm so far for the region. Waiting on headlines and watches but should be coming later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Nebraska could use this snow because after watching the Hawkeyes destroy the huskers they need something positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 GDR, player of the game for Iowa was Tommy Armstrong!! And yes it's been a long year. Sounds like if your south of I-80 it's going to be sleet and freezing rain! When all this cycles back it should be fun heread tracking these wet storms! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Can someone paste what Lezak has been writing on his 2020 blog? He had a write-up last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 12z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Gdr, be nice. It has been a long year. Iowa has a good team but things go in cycles. Just last year ferentz was the dumbest coach in America and Iowans wanted him fired according to Hawkeye fans that I know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educatorjen Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 12z NAM...Ughhhhh! I hate Omaha.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 that 12z nam run hurts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Can someone paste what Lezak has been writing on his 2020 blog? He had a write-up last night. http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/46-320x240.gifHere is the upper level flow, the 500 mb level which is around 18,000 feet up, valid at noon central time Sunday. The main jet stream is continuing to stay up way to the north and separated from the southern stream of the jet stream. There are strong indication of the strong El Niño influence in this southern branch of the jet stream. This pattern has evolved and we are already seeing extreme weather in the form of excessive rainfall and some ice and snow. The jet stream that is being held way up to the north for now is also a strong indication of the AO and NAO positive indexes.There is a southern wave of energy reorganizing around the Rocky Mountains upper level low on Sunday. This wave of energy will move out into the plains by Monday. This southern wave will likely become quite strong, and the upper low will move out into the plains and get deeper, go through a transition, and close off again.If the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) weren’t so positive this storm would have a chance of tracking farther south, but like many other systems already this season, this storm will track across in a similar path into Nebraska and Iowa. In the next two winter LRC cycles, this storm may track farther south, and we will have to continue monitoring these other indexes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 12z NAM... Seems like the heaviest snowfall area keep migrating around. Odd system. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 that 12z nam run hurts That run looks weird, IMO...I don't see it producing a "snow hole" like that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Good lord! These probabilities are going to be up in Canada at this rate. OAX still has a sloppy mess forecasted for Omaha. WITH THE DEEPENING AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW ON MONDAY OCCURRING AS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AND MERGE WITHIN THE EXPANDING UPPER SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE BORDER BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE RATE OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT NAM/ECMWF/UKMET AND CANADIAN FOR THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEMBERS. [attachment=5682:day3_composite.gif] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Nebraska could use this snow because after watching the Hawkeyes destroy the huskers they need something positive.Destroy? Hmm.. Iowa was outgained by 183 yards, had 11 less first downs, ran 39 less plays, and about had 13 less minutes in TOP. Iowa was handled, but had a few big plays and luckily for them, Tommy Armstrong was their best player. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 12Z GFS about 75 miles further NW in IA then 06Z--- NW IA gets hammered. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 12Z GFS about 75 miles further NW in IA then 06Z--- NW IA gets hammered.Run just absolutely punishes Nebraska, EXCEPT for Eastern Nebraska. Depressing seeing these trends, I'm thinking another crappy mix/freezing rain event is looking likely, while anywhere northwest of LNK/OMA get rocked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Thank you east dubzz. Iowa is good but let's not crown them the greatest team in history. Back to weather, waiting for 12z gfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Thank you east dubzz. Iowa is good but let's not crown them the greatest team in history. Back to weather, waiting for 12z gfs.Looking good for your area... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Nebraska gets hammered with amazing snow totals on the incoming storm. Here in eastern Iowa lucky to get couple inches Most likely it boring ol rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Gfs has been very consistent with this storm. Excited to watch it develop. Snow blower is ready and we have a couple inches of snow sleet and ice already on the ground so snow shouldn't melt on contact as was the case in 2 prior storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Gfs has been very consistent with this storm. Excited to watch it develop. Snow blower is ready and we have a couple inches of snow sleet and ice already on the ground so snow shouldn't melt on contact as was the case in 2 prior storms.I'm sure surfaces are plenty cold for the snow to accumulate right rapidly. It's been in the 20's over the past 2 days out your way. This should def be a fun storm system for your area. Build that snow pack! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 12z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Hastings snowfall forecast. I'm in the 6-8"!! If this plays out, my november snow total would be over a foot!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 No model aside from the GEM really gives us anything this far southeast in lincoln. Hope the EURO whips something up, getting close to crunch time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 In-accuweather.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Looks like this system will fill in some of the "snow holes" in the high plains... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 So, so close... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 12z Euro maintains a track thru KC and almost due north up thru W IA...for the most part, I think all of NE will be snow and western IA up into MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 For E NE, near OMA/LNK, temps remain below 30F so there might be some more fluff to those amounts which are 10:1 ratios...esp, if the Dendritic Growth Zone is optimal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 This was before the euro run though and he wanted to see what the 12Z would do..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Looks like gosaints will finally crash in on some snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Looks like gosaints will finally crash in on some snow.Gonna be close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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