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11/29 - 11/30 Plains/Midwest Snowstorm


Tom

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WITH THE DEEPENING AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW ON MONDAY

OCCURRING AS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OF THE

UPPER LOW AND MERGE WITHIN THE EXPANDING UPPER SYSTEM...SURFACE

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO NEAR THE

COLORADO/KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE BORDER BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN

MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE RATE OF

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW AND IS NOT

EXPECTED TO BE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A STRONG

BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN

THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD

THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO

REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS

INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT NAM/ECMWF/UKMET AND CANADIAN FOR THIS

SYSTEM AS WELL AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEMBERS. [attachment=5682:day3_composite.gif]

day3_composite.gif

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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From DMX morning disco-

SOME THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN THIS STORM WILL BE LOWER STATIC
STABILITY NOTED BY THE NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME TOKEN
MUCAPES AND POTENTIALLY THUNDER...AND THE GFS WHICH HAS AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST WARMER THAN -5C IN THE LOWEST 1.5KM WHICH
COULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO BE SOMEWHAT WET AND STICKY. INCREASING
WINDS TUE COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME MINOR TREE ISSUES IN THIS
CASE. HOWEVER IT NEEDS TO BE EMPHASIZED THAT ALL THESE DETAILS
/TRACK...ASSOCIATED QPF...DGZ OMEGA PHASING...ETC/ COULD CAUSE BIG
FORECAST VARIANCES MOVING FORWARD WITH THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL
KICK THE NV/UT CLOSED LOW OUT STILL WELL OFF THE CA COAST THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS UNTIL
SUN RUNS WHEN IT COMES ON SHORE. THUS NO WATCH AS OF YET...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Guest Snowball

GDR, player of the game for Iowa was Tommy Armstrong!! And yes it's been a long year. Sounds like if your south of I-80 it's going to be sleet and freezing rain! When all this cycles back it should be fun heread tracking these wet storms!

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Can someone paste what Lezak has been writing on his 2020 blog? He had a write-up last night.

 

 

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/46-320x240.gifHere is the upper level flow, the 500 mb level which is around 18,000 feet up, valid at noon central time Sunday. The main jet stream is continuing to stay up way to the north and separated from the southern stream of the jet stream. There are strong indication of the strong El Niño influence in this southern branch of the jet stream. This pattern has evolved and we are already seeing extreme weather in the form of excessive rainfall and some ice and snow.  The jet stream that is being held way up to the north for now is also a strong indication of the AO and NAO positive indexes.

There is a southern wave of energy reorganizing around the Rocky Mountains upper level low on Sunday.  This wave of energy will move out into the plains by Monday.  This southern wave will likely become quite strong, and the upper low will move out into the plains and get deeper, go through a transition, and close off again.

If the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) weren’t so positive this storm would have a chance of tracking farther south, but like many other systems already this season, this storm will track across in a similar path into Nebraska and Iowa. In the next two winter LRC cycles, this storm may track farther south, and we will have to continue monitoring these other indexes.

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Good lord! These probabilities are going to be up in Canada at this rate. OAX still has a sloppy mess forecasted for Omaha.

 

 

WITH THE DEEPENING AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW ON MONDAY
OCCURRING AS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND MERGE WITHIN THE EXPANDING UPPER SYSTEM...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE BORDER BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING.  THE RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...A STRONG
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT NAM/ECMWF/UKMET AND CANADIAN FOR THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEMBERS.  [attachment=5682:day3_composite.gif]
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Nebraska could use this snow because after watching the Hawkeyes destroy the huskers they need something positive.

Destroy? Hmm..

 

Iowa was outgained by 183 yards, had 11 less first downs, ran 39 less plays, and about had 13 less minutes in TOP. Iowa was handled, but had a few big plays and luckily for them, Tommy Armstrong was their best player.

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12Z GFS about 75 miles further NW in IA then 06Z--- NW IA gets hammered.

Run just absolutely punishes Nebraska, EXCEPT for Eastern Nebraska. Depressing seeing these trends, I'm thinking another crappy mix/freezing rain event is looking likely, while anywhere northwest of LNK/OMA get rocked.

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Gfs has been very consistent with this storm. Excited to watch it develop. Snow blower is ready and we have a couple inches of snow sleet and ice already on the ground so snow shouldn't melt on contact as was the case in 2 prior storms.

I'm sure surfaces are plenty cold for the snow to accumulate right rapidly.  It's been in the 20's over the past 2 days out your way.  This should def be a fun storm system for your area.  Build that snow pack!

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