11/29 - 11/30 Plains/Midwest Snowstorm

[Tom]

The later half of Monday morning rush hour looks to be greatly impacted...

[gosaints]

Nam throws me a bone. Not sure what to think

[bud2380]

This is from the NCEP NDFD.  I just found out about this map on WxBell yesterday. Just another map to look at during storms.  This is some kind of digital forecast.  Not exactly sure how it is derived. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/eEPmiPk.png

[Tom]

00z NAM...full run...

[Jaycee]

How I feel with all of these different solutions...

 

http://38.media.tumblr.com/df82f081a891f8a7c3ad82df794e887e/tumblr_inline_mqi3vvlYWC1qz4rgp.gif

[NEJeremy]

yeah why the hell is the NAM now showing a foot of snow in south central south dakota?! absolutely bizarre!

[jcwxguy]

1z hrrr changed a lot, much less snow. I've seen hrrr changed significantly before only to go back the next run or two

[Geos]

0z RGEM.

Hopefully the mixing comes to an end in Omaha and Lincoln early and it goes to all snow.

 

 

12z tomorrow.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Is it just me or does it seem like the 00z gfs has shifted south? I will keep watching as it continues.

[Geos]

I see the GFS kicks out the mixing a lot sooner. Higher totals for eastern NE.

 

[clintbeed1993]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=UEX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Is that the dry punch?  Good lord that is huge.  That does not look normal.  Why do we always have dry air to deal with in Nebraska?  The flow is out of the South for God sakes.

[Tom]

00z GFS...different look...

[Geos]

I see you have the low level moisture in place in eastern Nebraska. Models showing the mid level dryness working its way out quickly.

 

Soundings near Omaha at 12z tomorrow. NAM vs. GFS. Above freezing layers more stubborn to leave at the ~800mb level -NAM.

 

 

[james1976]

Edge of the snow is starting to pull to the NW of me. Oh well.

[Geos]

-SN being reported at HDE in Nebraska.

Seeing that snow Central Neb?

[CentralNebWeather]

Been snowing here since about 6 pm. No wind and about 2-3 mile visibility. Ground is completely covered. We might do better with this storm than local mets are saying.

[Andrew NE]

Does anyone have any updated high res runs?

[Grizzcoat]

Does anyone have any updated high res runs?

Think the HRRR is over doing it for the DSM area-- and the 05Z run seems to be more in line-- time will tell.

 

[Andrew NE]

Thanks Grizz!

[Andrew NE]

It's pretty comical to still see all the model differences in this system.

[Andrew NE]

Jim Flowers still says Omaha will end up with about 4" by lunch time, I must be missing something, with a steady temp at 33 and calm winds.

[Guest Snowball]

This event should have been a low end winter weather advisory and that's pushing it. We have ice build up on trees and sidewalks. When these systems come back through it should be really interesting!

[clintbeed1993]

There must be a bunch of young guys now getting into the NWS because they seem to be declining in accuracy over the last several years.  And now they issue Winter Storm Warnings for every little snowfall event.   I remember when they use to only issue those when we were suppose to get clocked.  I feel like we can get more accurate information on this weather forum, and that's pretty sad.

[FarmerRick]

There must be a bunch of young guys now getting into the NWS because they seem to be declining in accuracy over the last several years.  And now they issue Winter Storm Warnings for every little snowfall event.   I remember when they use to only issue those when we were suppose to get clocked.  I feel like we can get more accurate information on this weather forum, and that's pretty sad.

 

I believe one of the main Mets at OAX(Brian) has been there for quite a few years. Not sure about the rest of them though. 

I suppose they'd rather err on the side of caution, 2* colder and we'd have one hell of a mess.

 

It was trying to sleet a bit on my way into work 20 minutes ago. Streets are just wet so far.

[Snowlover76]

Well this ones a bust

[clintbeed1993]

I believe one of the main Mets at OAX(Brian) has been there for quite a few years. Not sure about the rest of them though. 

I suppose they'd rather err on the side of caution, 2* colder and we'd have one hell of a mess.

 

It was trying to sleet a bit on my way into work 20 minutes ago. Streets are just wet so far.

 

The problem with that is once you cry wolf so many times people aren't going to take the warnings as serious.  It use to be if you were in a Winter Storm Warning you knew to expect some pretty heavy snow accumulations.  This will end up being a Winter Weather Advisory level snow at best.

[FarmerRick]

The problem with that is once you cry wolf so many times people aren't going to take the warnings as serious.  It use to be if you were in a Winter Storm Warning you knew to expect some pretty heavy snow accumulations.  This will end up being a Winter Weather Advisory level snow at best.

 

I agree, but imagine the outrage(likely manufactured via social media) if they didn't issue a warning and we actually got all the ice that was forecasted. 

 

It's just the way things are anymore... 

[Grizzcoat]

DMX downgraded several counties near DSM --- only hope for snow here is some wrap around snow showers...

A long time to wait it seems for the next chance....

[jcwxguy]

snow has started here in lincoln, and its coming down at a good clip

[Guest Snowball]

Interstate is now mostly snow packed. Accident west bound by 27th St

[NEJeremy]

32 and sleeting right now. Patiently waiting for my 2" of snow

[FarmerRick]

Snowing pretty decent now in NW Omaha, nice big flakes.  The county has nearly every truck out on the roads...

[CentralNebWeather]

Central Nebraska - Holdrege- Swing and a miss.  Maybe 1 inch of snow tops (some of that might be leftover from Thanksgiving).  This storm was even less than I could have imagined.  Wow.  Should see the amount of schools not to far from here that are either late start or closed.

[jcwxguy]

solid inch here with back edge about to come through (no more accumulation expected)

[Jaycee]

Biggest bust ive ever witnessed. What a joke, we couldve gotten away with a not issuing anything, not even a WWA. Can't believe this...

[Iowa2015]

The main Snow band out that way looks pretty narrow. Here we had 34,35 Cold rain that's the worst.

[jcwxguy]

parking lot at my work look like its up to 1 1/2 inches or so (maybe 2 in grassy area's )

[Geos]

I thought you guys in Lincoln were going to get more than 2"! Did the freezing drizzle and sleet last longer than expected?

[Jaycee]

I thought you guys in Lincoln were going to get more than 2"! Did the freezing drizzle and sleet last longer than expected?

 

I think it was that and just the lack of precipitation overall. The overall amount of precipitation that fell was minuscule. 

[jcwxguy]

Didnt last long here, plus temps have been right at or slightly above freezing. Not much in terms of moisture.