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December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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The PV is now officially the strongest ever recorded, both in the observational data and reanalysis back to the WWII era. This is true in terms of pressure, size, and thermals.

 

Additional records and anomalies include:

 

- The most amplified +QBO wave on record

- Highest weekly Niño 3.4 reading on record in Nov

- Lowest 850mb U-wind anomaly on record over NPAC in Nov

- Largest Dec +NAM on record in a Niño year (upcoming)

- Largest Dec NAM spike on record in a Niño year (upcoming)

 

We also observed the strongest hurricane ever recorded back in October, several record breaking +PDO monthlies, and one the weakest W/H ratio on record in 2015.

 

#anomalous #changeisafoot

What does this mean for our future?

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Nothing another 10" by the end of the month won't cure.

 

Screw snow, I'm rooting for those records to just get shattered.

I do like records. Even rain records.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The PV is now officially the strongest ever recorded, both in the observational data and reanalysis back to the WWII era. This is true in terms of pressure, size, and thermals.

 

Additional records and anomalies include:

 

- The most amplified +QBO wave on record

- Highest weekly Niño 3.4 reading on record in Nov

- Lowest 850mb U-wind anomaly on record over NPAC in Nov

- Largest Dec +NAM on record in a Niño year (upcoming)

- Largest Dec NAM spike on record in a Niño year (upcoming)

 

We also observed the strongest hurricane ever recorded back in October, several record breaking +PDO monthlies, and one the weakest W/H ratio on record in 2015.

 

#anomalous #changeisafoot

#globalwarming?? Jk jk

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Well, you would think so... It is already a little better than last year. Specially for the mountains. I have always had a perspective that overtime things balance out but honestly who knows what that will look like for us. AND to be honest I am not sure that is always 100% true or plays out like anyone would expect, specially in the shorter term (1 to 5 years).

Everybody keeps saying "well, it's better than last year", but that's not true from a cold air perspective. We had three shots of cold air last year (one in mid Nov, one late Nov/early Dec, one in late Dec), all three of which were probably more impressive than the late November cold snap we just had. This winter has certainly been active and interesting so far (I'm hoping PDX blows away its monthly rainfall record) and has been better for the mountains, but if you judge a winter by cold/snow for the lowlands like many do, this year is lagging behind last. 

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good news is nobody will be complaining about a drought anytime soon :)

 

 

I am sure Andrew is still living through epic drought and everything is dried up and dead there and it will never rain again.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Let's play fill in the blanks!

 

So the 18z looks pretty ______ in the ____________ range, but of course there's _________ in play at this point and it's anyone's guess how the ___________ will ultimately play out considering the ______ , ________ and most importantly _________.  I can't believe people are being so __________ about our chances right now.  With the fact it ________ and there was some pretty serious _______ it's clear there are ______ and ______ in our fairly near future.  It'll be interesting to see if the 00z runs pick up on some of the ___________ and ______ which have previously been discussed but minimized due to _________ and especially ________.  Any thoughts?  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Let's play fill in the blanks!

 

So the 18z looks pretty ______ in the ____________ range, but of course there's _________ in play at this point and it's anyone's guess how the ___________ will ultimately play out considering the ______ , ________ and most importantly _________.  I can't believe people are being so __________ about our chances right now.  With the fact it ________ and there was some pretty serious _______ it's clear there are ______ and ______ in our fairly near future.  It'll be interesting to see if the 00z runs pick up on some of the ___________ and ______ which have previously been discussed but minimized due to _________ and especially ________.  Any thoughts?  

_____

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Let's play fill in the blanks!

 

So the 18z looks pretty ______ in the ____________ range, but of course there's _________ in play at this point and it's anyone's guess how the ___________ will ultimately play out considering the ______ , ________ and most importantly _________.  I can't believe people are being so __________ about our chances right now.  With the fact it ________ and there was some pretty serious _______ it's clear there are ______ and ______ in our fairly near future.  It'll be interesting to see if the 00z runs pick up on some of the ___________ and ______ which have previously been discussed but minimized due to _________ and especially ________.  Any thoughts?  

 

 

Very good.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What does this mean for our future?

We'll know the answer to that sometime in the future. :)

 

Otherwise, La Niña/-QBO for winter 2016-17. Heavy severe weather/hurricane seasons for U.S over next 2 years? Wouldn't surprise me to see several major hurricane strikes on U.S. over the next 2-3 years.

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The frozen precipitation that fell at my work this morning has held tough all day and even the side roads have some slush still. Like I said, I will take what I can get! Anyhow I like how much cold air is building up north towards the end of the year, lots of potential there!!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Us Western Washingtonians just need a good region wide snowstorm again with Winter Storm warnings posted for all counties...nearly 4 years is just too long to wait. It will happen, and it will happen big! January 1950 baby! Lets do this!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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In my poinion the most encouraging things are

1) We aren't in a splitty dry pattern with a ridge/inversion overhead.

2) Mountains are getting dumped on and will continue to down to 1500' maybe.

3) Bitter cold returns up north, especially on the GFS.

 

Unfortunately the 500mb pattern isn't going to remain like this forever, so we're running out of time until split flow arrives. Just my thoughts.

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In my poinion the most encouraging things are

1) We aren't in a splitty dry pattern with a ridge/inversion overhead.

2) Mountains are getting dumped on and will continue to down to 1500' maybe.

3) Bitter cold returns up north, especially on the GFS.

 

Unfortunately the 500mb pattern isn't going to remain like this forever, so we're running out of time until split flow arrives. Just my thoughts.

 

Agreed. It is a bummer that things have yet to amplify with the overall pattern being so favorable. 

 

That being said, the 500mb pattern was stuck in a ridgy rut for an awfully long time until a few months ago. Maybe the atmosphere will get stuck again for awhile.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Longer that for me.. I got barely anything here from that .. 2008 was truly the last satisfying event here.

You didn't score in 2012? Did you end up having more ice at the tail end of that event? If I remember correctly I think we ended up with a good 16" or so in my area and no ice. That was the one and only time I have ever heard the Emergency Alert System go off on the radio and it not be a test. Was when I was driving in blinding snow on my way to work that morning... It was for the Ice storm happening south of me.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Longer that for me.. I got barely anything here from that .. 2008 was truly the last satisfying event here.

I would even take a good old Dec. 1996 repeat. Winter Storm Warnings were posted for every single county in the state before that major overriding event happened. Ahhh...the good old days!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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You didn't score in 2012? Did you end up having more ice at the tail end of that event? If I remember correctly I think we ended up with a good 16" or so in my area and no ice. That was the one and only time I have ever heard the Emergency Alert System go off on the radio and it not be a test. Was when I was driving in blinding snow on my way to work that morning... It was for the Ice storm happening south of me.

.

 

I got about 3 inches of snow at night but about 8am it turned over to freezing rain which lasted the rest of the time. Had over an inch of ice on everything. It was super devastating to trees we had and not fun to be out in at all. Basically, it sucked... If it had not turned to freezing rain it would have been awesome!!

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Agreed. It is a bummer that things have yet to amplify with the overall pattern being so favorable.

 

That being said, the 500mb pattern was stuck in a ridgy rut for an awfully long time until a few months ago. Maybe the atmosphere will get stuck again for awhile.

Maybe will be stuck in this pattern for two years

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Here in East Everett I got 15 inches of snow in 2008, and 13 inches of snow in 2012 with a little bit of ice on top of it. Being in the convergence zone really helped in 2012.

Yeah, the convergence zone really helped up there. We literally had 10 hours of freezing drizzle. Honestly, it was pretty on the tree's and all but not all that much fun to actually enjoy it. I was very jealous of you all up north.

 

The most snow I have gotten since 2008 was the 2012 storm but it turned to freezing rain the minute we all went to go play in it. It has been a really long time since we have gotten a good snow or a snow that did not melt before noon.

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Not sure what all of the griping is about.  At face value the models indicate we could have a white Christmas.  All it would take is precip with weak offshore flow.  By far the best looking ECMWF run yet today.  I almost hate coming on here when we have a decent shot at a cold spell because everyone is always so D**n negative about it.

 

 

 

 

post-222-0-15627900-1450147875_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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