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December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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looks a lot like the gfs, i like that kind of agreement!  now if we could all just get along!

It happened before, then the Canadians had to throw some disagreement in the mix. The Canadians started to woo the Euros, then the Americans slowly played sheep and followed everyone else.

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To be fair, I wouldn't designate this as a trend quite yet. For comparison, here is the 00z ECMWF for that Thurs. Trough is a lot sharper on the 12z, ridge offshore is a lot more consolidated. Definitely a step in the right direction though.

Agreed... One thing to note is both the ECMWF and GFS are showing very similar large scale outcomes for the last 2 or 3 days now (showing a good pattern for us in PNW). Yes, we can not worry about the details but there has been a favorable and consistent trend with both models to setup what could be a good pattern for us. EVEN if it is not epic cold there is a clear sign that maritime cold may be present which can also surprise us and work out better than your run of the mill north to south arctic outbreak. Specially if you are wanting snow. 

 

Is it a lock... Nope. BUT there is some consistency and it looks good so far. :)

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The things we get excited about

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I agree that things are looking favorable for a chance at some colder air after the 10th and it's nice that both the ECMWF and GFS show some agreement for the pattern setting up. I just didn't want the idea to get out there that this is a clear and definitive trend. Hard to call it that with just a handful of decent-looking models. We are just starting to get into the timeframe where we can watch this develop on the Euro so it will be interesting to see where it goes from here. At least there is hope and we are not looking at a complete blowtorch like last December. :)

I totally agree and good points! :)  YEAH we get burned more often than not but I believe that Epic will happen (some day)... SO, as Jim shared yesterday "we got to start from somewhere"... NOW, just keep'n it real and emotions in check is key, which you shared. I SO agree.  :D

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Snow @ 384 hours just doesn't have the same ring to it anymore.

Hmm a lot sooner than 384 base on current runs... BUT yeah I get what you are saying and feel the same way. At least there is tangible hope and not a total blowtorch showing in the models like last year. Last year sucked about now. 

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One thing is for sure, one cold run is a trend on the forum. :)

LOL.. true.. Please note: this has been showing up for days now. I posted on it about 3 days ago and DJ alluded to it much sooner. Agreed note a "trend" as some may see it but it is something and not short lived and not backing off (yet). 

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According to Phil that is impossible.

Just to avoid confusion, I was referring to Arctic air, as denotated by the polar jet. Cool, NW flow is very, very possible.

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Just to avoid confusion, I was referring to Arctic air, as denotated by the polar jet. Cool, NW flow is very, very possible.

Doesn't look like we are about to tap into the arctic at day 10 on the Euro to me, but we are getting excited about -3C 850mb temps.  I wish you luck if it does get cold here later this month.  I would expect many shots coming your way. 

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Doesn't look like we are about to tap into the arctic at day 10 on the Euro to me, but we are getting excited about -3C 850mb temps. I wish you luck if it does get cold here later this month. I would expect many shots coming your way.

Haha, personally I'd be happy if my call for a nationwide torch for December busted, even if my region doesn't get in on the action. I hate zonal flow.

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#coveringyourass ;)

#coveringmybases #dejavu :)

 

Well, the PV is officially both the largest and strongest on record for this date. It's also fully coupled from the middle troposphere, all the way through the stratosphere, through the mesosphere, up to the mesopause.

 

So yeah, no Arctic air for anyone through the remainder of 2015.

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Doesn't look like we are about to tap into the arctic at day 10 on the Euro to me, but we are getting excited about -3C 850mb temps.  I wish you luck if it does get cold here later this month.  I would expect many shots coming your way. 

Mainly the GFS... But the Euro is showing the same pattern, the GFS just goes out farther... It shows it starting (the setup begins) around hour 240ish - this is what people are talking about... 

 

EXAMPLE:

 

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Mainly the GFS... But the Euro is showing the same pattern, the GFS just goes out farther... It shows it starting (the setup begins) around hour 240ish - this is what people are talking about... 

 

EXAMPLE:

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-12-01 at 12.20.20 PM.png

Yea, I know, some promising trends for sure.  Since we are analyzing the 12Z GFS post hour 240 its probably worth mentioning that it doesn't show any snow for the Puget Sound lowlands.  Too warm and definitely too warm when precip is falling.  925mb temps are mostly above freezing the entire time. 

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Yea, I know, some promising trends for sure.  Since we are analyzing the 12Z GFS post hour 240 its probably worth mentioning that it doesn't show any snow for the Puget Sound lowlands.  Too warm and definitely too warm when precip is falling.  925mb temps are mostly above freezing the entire time. 

Details this far out is not what I am focused on personally. There would be very low snow levels and the potential is there. Stay Tuned and we can revisit this within 3 to 5 days if it materializes. :)

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To be fair, I wouldn't designate this as a trend quite yet. For comparison, here is the 00z ECMWF for that Thurs. Trough is a lot sharper on the 12z, ridge offshore is a lot more consolidated. Definitely a step in the right direction though.

 

Yes, the 12z was better than the 0z. But the 0z was also better than the previous Euro runs. Two steps in the right direction...it's a baby trend.

A forum for the end of the world.

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There are Canadians on this forum?

Yeah, Hi.

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2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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