December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

New D+11 12z GFS Analog Composite shows a correlation to late Dec. 2003. I know here in Portland we had a major snow/ice storm from Jan. 1-8 2004. If you correlate that to it being centered on the 12th we would be looking at the Dec. 17-24 as a possible window to score.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

Where is 2006????

 

I was assured this was 2006.

 

Get panicky right now... where is 2006?

 

2015 is 2006 right?

[ShawniganLake]

I just checked the CFS.  Looks like an extended period of cold with snow potential during late December and early January.  Is that within the range where we can start tracking things with the NAM?

[TT-SEA]

As Dewey so eloquently put it a day or two ago, "Good Lord...."

Just checking. We were all set on 2006. I can't shift gears now!

[stuffradio]

Just checking. We were all set on 2006. I can't shift gears now!

You're one of those slow shifters, eh?

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm also as engaging as a frozen turd.

 

I'm sure Canadians are familiar with those, as that's how the first hockey game started.

I just lol'd out loud for realz...   

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just checking. We were all set on 2006. I can't shift gears now!

Focus on the models and get past it...

[TT-SEA]

Focus on the models and get past it...

 

 

In a fetal position on the floor now.  The change is too big for me to handle. 

[BLI snowman]

I just checked the CFS.  Looks like an extended period of cold with snow potential during late December and early January.  Is that within the range where we can start tracking things with the NAM?

 

No, but it's probably just as accurate as the 48-84 hour NAM.

[TT-SEA]

42 with a dewpoint of 26 and a brisk east wind here.   Another dry afternoon and tomorrow looks like the same thing.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am only out to 186 on the 18z GFS but I think it might be a good run looking at placement. We shall see...

 

EDIT:  18z is       not horrible just warmer with plenty of potential being so far out. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA got up to 50 today.  

[Deweydog]

3,000 foot snow levels a week from Thursday? Stay tuned after Life Lessons with Jared to find out more!

[crf450ish]

SEA got up to 50 today.  

I seen that as well. Managed to get up to 28 here so far today. I expect 30* before it begins to drop again. Snow is expected around here as well. 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.9641&lon=-118.2265#.Vl4mkoRlmHp

[PacNW44]

Where is 2006????

 

I was assured this was 2006.

 

Get panicky right now... where is 2006?

 

2015 is 2006 right?

Here you go:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

[TT-SEA]

Here you go:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

 

Thanks!!

[Jesse]

I seen that as well. Managed to get up to 28 here so far today. I expect 30* before it begins to drop again. Snow is expected around here as well.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.9641&lon=-118.2265#.Vl4mkoRlmHp

PDX only hit 42 today and is back down to 39 on the hour.

 

The Columbia Gorge is expecting an icing event tonight with some snow possible in the Hood River Valley.

[Front Ranger]

SEA got up to 50 today.  

 

Only 10 degrees short of the magic number.

[TT-SEA]

Only 10 degrees short of the magic number.

 

 

Not the point.   And that will not be happening up here as I mentioned.   So is it bad to mention the models showing an interesting warm event within 4 days... or can we only do that with cold events at 312 hours out?  

 

Remember... I said the set-up was tenuous due to the timing.   But the models clearly showed it happening.     

[Front Ranger]

Not the point.   And that will not be happening up here as I mentioned.   So is it bad to mention the models showing an interesting warm event within 4 days... or can we only do that with cold events at 312 hours out?     

 

Even though its now watered down... the WRF does still show temps getting up to around 60 south of PDX on Thursday.     ULL is moving in too fast that day... or it would have happened on a wider scale.   The air mass and southerly flow support it.     The timing has changed.

 

This epic warm surge has been your pet lately...I'm just teasing ya.

[TT-SEA]

More maps, please!

 

This epic warm surge has been your pet lately...I'm just teasing ya.

 

Can you delete the quote?   I cleaned it up right as you were quoting.   

[TT-SEA]

More maps, please!

 

This epic warm surge has been your pet lately...I'm just teasing ya.

 

 

I am one of those strange people who likes both warm and cold events.     My only true dislike from a temperature standpoint is cold between May - September.     

[Front Ranger]

Can you delete the quote?   I cleaned it up right as you were quoting.   

 

Yup. You're almost as bad as me with editing.

[TT-SEA]

Yup. You're almost as bad as me with editing.

 

Thanks!   

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am one of those strange people who likes both warm and cold events.     My only true dislike from a temperature standpoint is cold between May - September.     

WE KNOW !!!!  OMG... how could we not??!    <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_tongue.png" alt=":P"> **said in my Best Austin Powers voice**

[Front Ranger]

I am one of those strange people who likes both warm and cold events.     My only true dislike from a temperature standpoint is cold between May - September.     

 

I don't think it's strange to like both warm and cold events. It is a bit strange to root for 60 degrees (a pretty boring temp, let's be honest) in early December, a time frame that has been know to feature more exciting weather.

 

But to each his own! Opinions are like turds, everyone has them, and they usually stink.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don't think it's strange to like both warm and cold events. It is a bit strange to root for 60 degrees (a pretty boring temp, let's be honest) in early December, a time frame that has been know to feature more exciting weather.

 

But to each his own! Opinions are like turds, everyone has them, and they usually stink.

Mine don't...   I only have extra quiet, orderless, stealth turds...

[TT-SEA]

I don't think it's strange to like both warm and cold events. It is a bit strange to root for 60 degrees (a pretty boring temp, let's be honest) in early December, a time frame that has been know to feature more exciting weather.

 

But to each his own! Opinions are like turds, everyone has them, and they usually stink.

Was only interested if it was going to be dry and 60. That would have been nice. Moot point now.

[DareDuck]

41 at 2:55pm at the Bend airport. 32 at 3:35pm. Temps are dropping across the northern part of town in the lower elevations. Could make for an interesting evening.

[Deweydog]

I don't think it's strange to like both warm and cold events. It is a bit strange to root for 60 degrees (a pretty boring temp, let's be honest) in early December, a time frame that has been know to feature more exciting weather.

 

But to each his own! Opinions are like turds, everyone has them, and they usually stink.

Funny you don't seem to chide those pointing out the potential for a sub-70 high in July or whatever. Consistency is the spice of life.

[Kayla]

Well, this could turn into a lot a more eventful of a night than I or just about about anyone was expecting for PDX metro area. I really don't want more freezing rain after last night but looks likely at this point.

 

Already down to 38º at PDX. Only 33º dp 21º here in the West Hills.

[TT-SEA]

Well, this could turn into a lot a more eventful of a night than I or just about about anyone was expecting for PDX metro area. I really don't want more freezing rain after last night but looks likely at this point.

 

Already down to 38º at PDX. Only 33º dp 21º here in the West Hills.

 

 

The power of a cold pool on the east side!

[Jesse]

Funny you don't seem to chide those pointing out the potential for a sub-70 high in July or whatever. Consistency is the spice of life.

We've got you for that!

[Deweydog]

We've got you for that!

I'm sure you sleep better at night thinking that's the case.

[Jesse]

I'm sure you sleep better at night thinking that's the case.

Fringe stuff man...

[Deweydog]

Fringe stuff man...

If the models are right in a couple weeks it could be fridge stuff. Maybe even freezer stuff!!

[Deweydog]

Tree's up!!! Keep in mind campers the last time we got a tree on anything other than a weekend was in 2008.

[Timmy]

Tree's up!!! Keep in mind campers the last time we got a tree on anything other than a weekend was in 2008.

Interesting correlation. That has gotten me cautiously optimistic.

[Front Ranger]

Funny you don't seem to chide those pointing out the potential for a sub-70 high in July or whatever. Consistency is the spice of life.

Reaching, my friend. There were several of us that pointed out the unlikelihood of Tim's initial post about widespread 60+ temps this week. Had nothing to do with perceived biases, as you're inferring.

 

Plus, I really don't care about sub-70 highs in July. Only a few on here do.

[Front Ranger]

Tree's up!!! Keep in mind campers the last time we got a tree on anything other than a weekend was in 2008.

Congrats on getting it up!

[TT-SEA]

Reaching, my friend. There were several of us that pointed out the unlikelihood of Tim's initial post about widespread 60+ temps this week. Had nothing to do with perceived biases, as you're inferring.

 

Plus, I really don't care about sub-70 highs in July. Only a few on here do.

 

Widespread 60+ temps this week??    

 

I said a chance at 60 at SEA and maybe low 60s south of PDX on just one afternoon (Thursday) due to the favorable placement of a ULL that afternoon offshore with southerly flow and warm air mass.

 

Sorry.    I will now only talk about 1,000 foot snow levels possible at 336 hours!!