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Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out


Geos

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If that system can come out of the Rockies stronger and track across the country it can trend farther north.  Nonetheless, the EC may finally get their first big snow of the season.

A little north and I am in business. About 100 miles or so I think should do it. Don't get me wrong, I do want the EC to score because they are bare ground ever since winter arrived this year.

 

OTG right now I have some snow still hanging around even though it was raining couple days ago. Kinda washed away a bit of my snowpack. (Bummer!!!!) Getting lake effect right now, which dusted the ground a bit. Anyhow, with this arctic air mass arriving, every bit of snow counts, at least not having bare ground with this frigid air.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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how cold is the air?

Doesn't get above 32F from IA/IL on north...depending on where the late week Clipper tracks it could briefly spike above freezing near Chicago next weekend.  Too far out for finer details.  Out in NE it gets warm though it has cooled also.

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Wish this was on the models in the short term!

GHDB III

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

The odds that that actually verifies are like 0 unfortunately :(

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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@ Geo's, look what the EPS is forecasting in the long range...monster trough in the 4 corners to open up Feb.  I gotta look back and see what storm system this one resembles in the LRC.

 

Just checked and it would be the 12/13 - 12/14 storm that formed near the TX Pan Handle (986mb) that spawned WSW for W KS.  I remember it had a picture perfect trowal signature/neg tilt storm.  Just got a feeling the LRC cycle #3 will perform very well.

 

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Wow take a look at the snow map for the NE. 1-2' from Philly to Maine. Would be awesome to experience a Nor'easter like that. Looks like winter will come roaring in for someone there.

I grew up int the northeast and they are fun as hell.  its at leas 24 hours of heavy snow and wind. 

 

 

CHristmas 2010 and the ones we had January 2011 were epic 

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@ Geo's, look what the EPS is forecasting in the long range...monster trough in the 4 corners to open up Feb.  I gotta look back and see what storm system this one resembles in the LRC.

 

Just checked and it would be the 12/13 - 12/14 storm that formed near the TX Pan Handle (986mb) that spawned WSW for W KS.  I remember it had a picture perfect trowal signature/neg tilt storm.  Just got a feeling the LRC cycle #3 will perform very well.

 

That's a good pattern for about anyone in this subforum, except the Ohio Valley.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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