Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[hlcater]

Would like to see this bomb out, don't see those in the Midwest too often.

[bud2380]

It's really amazing that the gfs has been showing this basically since it got into the 384 hour range, which is completely in heard of. Still about 3 or 4 days away from me getting a bit excited about this one.

[Money]

GFS is gonna be another big run

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/00Z/f210/sfcconus.png

 

Low developing out in Utah and a strong HP building south 

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/00Z/f228/sfcconus.png

[Geos]

Funny how a lead low sticks its head out into KS, but then pulls back to CO. lol

 

High is coming down to road block the low from coming out too fast.

 

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/00Z/f240/sfcconus.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/00Z/f240/24hkucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

Little farther north, but still in the same neighborhood.

[winterfreak]

Too far north and not enough cold air. Needs to take a more southern track.

[Tom]

00z GFS with Blizzard conditions for parts of the Plains/Midwest this run...keep that HP due north of the storm and let it bowling ball its way east so it can spread the wealth.

[Money]

GGEM at HR 240

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Geos]

Too far north and not enough cold air. Needs to take a more southern track.

 

Yeah, need that high to move down a little bit quicker.

[Money]

GFS total snowfall:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/00Z/f252/24hkucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

GGEM at HR 240

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[winterfreak]

Nice qpf jackpot on GGEM.

[Geos]

GGEM at HR 240

 

 

Looks promising. Just wish the model wasn't showing 30s before the storm.

 

[james1976]

Someone will get hammered. Looks like a storm for sure. Hard to deny when all long range models are showing it now.

[hlcater]

hopefully the GFS can sag south a bit then it'd get the guys in chicago a piece of the pie as well.

[winterfreak]

GEM is a big hit. Way south of the GFS.

[Money]

GEM is a big hit. Way south of the GFS.

 

....what

[Money]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160123/00Z/f240/24h10_1snowmw.png

[Maxim]

GEM is a big hit. Way south of the GFS.

For you, maybe. Completely whiffs the rest of us though, and is pretty weak in terms of moisture and QPF.

[Money]

For you, maybe. Completely whiffs the rest of us though, and is pretty weak in terms of moisture and QPF.

 

LOL ok

[Money]

For you, maybe. Completely whiffs the rest of us though, and is pretty weak in terms of moisture and QPF.

 

Yeah this is weak:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160123/00Z/f240/6hqpfconus.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

LOL ok

 

I don't think it even goes out far to know, right?

[winterfreak]

Precip maps looked pretty good. Maybe not a monster at the moment but has some serious potential.

[Money]

I don't think it even goes out far to know, right?

 

The storm is just getting it's act together at the end of the run with QPF exploding and LP system is strengthening 

[Tom]

00z Euro looks very similar to the GFS Day 9-10 with a monster 1042mb HP just across the U.S./CA border and a strong SLP developing near the TX Panhandle.  This storm has a lot going for it and by the end of the run it has the GOM opening up for business.

[Geos]

[Tom]

For comparison purposes ONLY...I'm going to show you the similarities between the current storm hitting the EC at 500hpa vorticity and the Day 10 forecast....the strength for the Day 10 storm is stronger than the current Blizzard hitting the EC.  It's very interesting, yet eary, that ALL the global models are clearly illustrating a very dynamic storm 10 days out.  Def brings back memories tracking the 2011 GHD Blitz a long ways before the storm hit.  Should be fun tracking this potential beast over the coming 7-10 days.

[Geos]

Impressive maps above.

If I remember right the GHDB I started off a little north beyond 7 days out, then went a little bit south before it settled in about 5 days out.

[Tom]

Impressive maps above.

If I remember right the GHDB I started off a little north beyond 7 days out, then went a little bit south before it settled in about 5 days out.

I remember runs that were south, then came farther north in time...the track was always south of Chicago.  Models never had the track north of here.

[Tom]

00z GEFS keep getting snowier...

[Geos]

I remember runs that were south, then came farther north in time...the track was always south of Chicago.  Models never had the track north of here.

 

Yeah you're right on that. I was thinking about the New Year 99 Blizzard - I think.

 

I'll take e6 or e12.

[Tom]

As I suggested, 00z Euro corrected with the placement of the HP in southern Canada from its previous 12z run.  Makes more sense given the EPO.  Also, look at the tremendous moisture feed coming out of the GOM.

[Money]

.......

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f384/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

For the Feb 1st/2nd storm: You have to add up the three panels

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f234/24hkucherasnowmw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f264/24hkucherasnowmw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f288/24hkucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

Pre Feb 1st storm:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f216/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

Post Feb 2nd/3rd storm

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f288/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

You don't see this type of agreement this far out usually

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012306/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_46.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_47.png

[Tom]

.......

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f384/acckucherasnowmw.png

I have no words for this... ...build that glacier!

 

@IndianaJohn, you asked about how do we get a storm to dump as much snow as the #DCBlizzard...well, the storm Feb 1st-3rd storm has a lot of the same variables on the table that could just bury someone from the Plains/Lakes.  I'm amazed to see that the models have been so dang consistent with this storm.

[Tom]

00z Euro Para...it's really building those heights in western Canada as SLP blossoms near TX Panhandle...