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Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out


Geos

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Big difference is that northern stream clipper up in central/southern Canada at HR 192. That blocks the high from building south and allowing the storm to go north.

 

Yep, that's the biggest issue.

 

Wouldn't side with the EURO this far out. Once we get to 120 hours will know a lot more.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Northern wave getting well out of the way.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

thats a strong northern wave, the euro had it at like 1005 mb.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Ugly ugly changes this run

 

Yeah if its going to hang out in Montana. It's going to get crushed by the high. 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Low goes too far north. Can't let the low eject out north of Denver.

Still decent, but too far north for most of us.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Don't put much stock into 06z/18z runs...they don't digest upper air...having said that, 18z GFS is having issues in the NE PAC.  Just look at how much ridging the 12z run had in the NE PAC.  It def is more aggressive with strong HP in western Canada but not in the NE PAC.

 

As we get closer in time, the ensembles are growing more confident in building higher heights in the NE PAC and in western Canada.

 

 

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Don't put much stock into 06z/18z runs...they don't digest upper air...having said that, 18z GFS is having issues in the NE PAC.  Just look at how much ridging the 12z run had in the NE PAC.  It def is more aggressive with strong HP in western Canada but not in the NE PAC.

 

As we get closer in time, the ensembles are growing more confident in building higher heights in the NE PAC and in western Canada.

Plus we are still 8-10 days out, I'm just hoping a storm stays on the models, which it should. Been pretty amazed by the consistency the models have been having, particularly the gfs. Can't get hung up by each model run, this is where the LRC plays in. I'm interested, if anybody has it, what's the ao and nao forecasted to be at during this time?

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Plus we are still 8-10 days out, I'm just hoping a storm stays on the models, which it should. Been pretty amazed by the consistency the models have been having, particularly the gfs. Can't get hung up by each model run, this is where the LRC plays in. I'm interested, if anybody has it, what's the ao and nao forecasted to be at during this time?

18z GFS trending towards neutral on both the AO/NAO while the Euro has a +AO/NAO....

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Not really...I wouldn't say 30's are really warm...just need the northern stream to dive down a bit more south and have better phasing.

 

 

I guess, but I spoke too soon, I thought the low was moving quicker than it was.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Man, I would have bet $ that snow would have been farther south then the last run!

Guess we have to get that low to eject out on the NM/CO border to be safe.  :lol:

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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