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Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out


Geos

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The problem I'm seeing is the HP in Canada is shifting east to fast due to the +NAO the models are digesting.  If there were more blocking in the way it wouldn't shift as fast, but instead, it builds into SE Canada allowing the system cut NW.

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What's the chance at a neutral/negative AO/NAO that blocking needs to happen

Well, I'd give it another 1-2 days and see what the teleconnections are showing.  CFSv2 has the AO falling from its peak to neutral on Feb 1st and sliding negative...

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Hate to say it - but the warm part of the LRC is due again soon.  Here in SE WI, we had several days of warm temps in the 40's and 50's right around mid-December.  Go back another 50 days or so and there were days where it was in the 70's in late October.  So just extrapolating forward gets us to late January through mid-February where temps may be well above normal.  Not boding well for big snowstorms for N IL and S WI.  It’s looking wet, but not snowy - at least for the next 2-3 weeks.  Sure hope I’m wrong about this! 

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Look where the GGEM shows the high:

 

post-117-0-77458100-1453697931.gif

That would be almost perfect placement...just need the storm to show up on the Canadian.  I just find it very odd that the 00z GFS run did not dig the storm farther south into the 4 corners in late January.  The pattern since this fall has been for storms to dig down into this region...so why not now???

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What's the chance at a neutral/negative AO/NAO, that blocking needs to happen

 

Models show the AO dropping back negative on the 1st and the NAO to neutral.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188

 

00Z JAN25

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

 

SUN 12Z 31-JAN 0.5 1.9 1008 87 80 0.00 551 544

SUN 18Z 31-JAN 3.7 -1.1 1010 76 87 0.02 550 542

MON 00Z 01-FEB 1.1 -2.0 1009 89 93 0.02 548 540

MON 06Z 01-FEB -1.0 -2.0 1010 92 94 0.00 547 539

MON 12Z 01-FEB -1.4 -3.8 1010 90 99 0.02 545 537

MON 18Z 01-FEB -2.6 -5.2 1011 79 100 0.13 543 534

TUE 00Z 02-FEB -3.7 -5.7 1011 82 100 0.16 541 533

TUE 06Z 02-FEB -4.7 -7.6 1014 89 99 0.19 539 529

TUE 12Z 02-FEB -4.7 -8.5 1014 90 98 0.09 537 526

TUE 18Z 02-FEB -4.1 -9.2 1015 88 97 0.06 536 524

WED 00Z 03-FEB -4.2 -10.0 1015 89 97 0.07 534 522

WED 06Z 03-FEB -4.5 -9.1 1016 88 98 0.06 534 521

WED 12Z 03-FEB -5.8 -10.5 1020 87 98 0.03 535 519

WED 18Z 03-FEB -6.1 -12.7 1026 76 47 0.00 538 518

THU 00Z 04-FEB -6.5 -10.6 1029 78 26 0.00 542 520

 

 

 

 

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH LAT= 43.98 LON= -88.55 ELE= 807

 

00Z JAN25

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 00Z 25-JAN -2.9 -1.7 1016 84 7 553 541

MON 06Z 25-JAN -4.3 -1.2 1015 87 17 0.00 553 541

MON 12Z 25-JAN -4.6 -2.0 1013 89 45 0.00 551 541

MON 18Z 25-JAN 0.1 -1.2 1009 84 30 0.00 549 542

TUE 00Z 26-JAN 0.5 -1.8 1005 90 94 0.01 543 539

TUE 06Z 26-JAN -0.6 -5.8 1004 97 98 0.20 536 533

TUE 12Z 26-JAN -2.6 -8.9 1009 89 99 0.07 535 528

TUE 18Z 26-JAN -1.4 -9.1 1014 81 100 0.01 533 522

WED 00Z 27-JAN -2.7 -11.5 1019 83 99 0.03 533 518

WED 06Z 27-JAN -5.5 -14.9 1024 84 4 0.00 536 517

 

 

 

TUE 06Z 02-FEB -2.6 -6.3 1015 88 11 0.00 545 533

TUE 12Z 02-FEB -1.2 -7.2 1015 94 43 0.01 544 532

TUE 18Z 02-FEB -0.4 -7.6 1017 90 100 0.03 544 531

WED 00Z 03-FEB -1.6 -7.3 1015 91 92 0.03 544 532

WED 06Z 03-FEB -2.9 -6.5 1011 90 76 0.04 540 531

WED 12Z 03-FEB -6.1 -7.8 1010 87 100 0.16 535 528

WED 18Z 03-FEB -6.3 -11.8 1013 81 100 0.26 531 521

THU 00Z 04-FEB -6.0 -13.1 1017 80 80 0.12 533 519

 

 

 

 

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI LAT= 39.28 LON= -94.75 ELE= 1027

 

00Z JAN25

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

 

SUN 12Z 31-JAN 1.7 4.4 1007 89 39 0.00 555 549

SUN 18Z 31-JAN 7.1 3.6 1007 71 47 0.00 554 549

MON 00Z 01-FEB 4.8 1.5 1007 78 61 0.01 552 546

MON 06Z 01-FEB 1.8 1.4 1009 83 83 0.00 551 544

MON 12Z 01-FEB 0.8 0.3 1008 87 87 0.03 550 544

MON 18Z 01-FEB 1.7 1.5 1007 87 86 0.07 549 543

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 1.2 0.9 1006 94 73 0.12 547 542

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.8 0.2 1008 96 51 0.04 545 539

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.2 -1.9 1009 95 64 0.01 544 537

TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.8 -4.0 1010 85 44 0.01 541 533

WED 00Z 03-FEB -0.7 -7.9 1012 82 65 0.01 537 527

WED 06Z 03-FEB -2.5 -9.6 1014 80 80 0.00 535 524

WED 12Z 03-FEB -2.2 -9.7 1017 82 77 0.01 536 522

WED 18Z 03-FEB -2.1 -11.0 1024 68 91 0.01 538 520

THU 00Z 04-FEB -3.6 -13.3 1029 65 33 0.00 542 520

 

 

 

 

 

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI    LAT=  39.28 LON=  -94.75 ELE=  1027

                                            00Z JAN25
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
   
SUN 12Z 31-JAN   1.7     4.4    1007      89      39    0.00     555     549    
SUN 18Z 31-JAN   7.1     3.6    1007      71      47    0.00     554     549    
MON 00Z 01-FEB   4.8     1.5    1007      78      61    0.01     552     546    
MON 06Z 01-FEB   1.8     1.4    1009      83      83    0.00     551     544    
MON 12Z 01-FEB   0.8     0.3    1008      87      87    0.03     550     544    
MON 18Z 01-FEB   1.7     1.5    1007      87      86    0.07     549     543    
TUE 00Z 02-FEB   1.2     0.9    1006      94      73    0.12     547     542    
TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.8     0.2    1008      96      51    0.04     545     539    
TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.2    -1.9    1009      95      64    0.01     544     537    
TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.8    -4.0    1010      85      44    0.01     541     533    
WED 00Z 03-FEB  -0.7    -7.9    1012      82      65    0.01     537     527    
WED 06Z 03-FEB  -2.5    -9.6    1014      80      80    0.00     535     524    
WED 12Z 03-FEB  -2.2    -9.7    1017      82      77    0.01     536     522    
WED 18Z 03-FEB  -2.1   -11.0    1024      68      91    0.01     538     520    
THU 00Z 04-FEB  -3.6   -13.3    1029      65      33    0.00     542     520    



Thanks just need it a little bit colder.
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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA LAT= 41.30 LON= -95.90 ELE= 981

 

00Z JAN25

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

 

SUN 12Z 31-JAN -0.2 1.8 1008 90 79 0.00 550 544

SUN 18Z 31-JAN 3.3 -0.5 1010 74 93 0.01 549 540

MON 00Z 01-FEB 1.4 -2.0 1009 86 92 0.02 547 539

MON 06Z 01-FEB -2.4 -2.0 1010 92 88 0.00 546 538

MON 12Z 01-FEB -2.1 -2.7 1011 86 91 0.00 545 536

MON 18Z 01-FEB -2.2 -4.3 1012 72 99 0.04 544 534

TUE 00Z 02-FEB -2.8 -4.9 1012 76 100 0.09 542 533

TUE 06Z 02-FEB -3.7 -7.1 1014 86 100 0.16 540 530

TUE 12Z 02-FEB -3.6 -7.5 1013 88 98 0.13 538 528

TUE 18Z 02-FEB -3.0 -8.3 1014 88 99 0.07 537 526

WED 00Z 03-FEB -3.5 -8.7 1013 91 96 0.08 534 523

WED 06Z 03-FEB -2.9 -8.9 1014 90 99 0.11 533 522

WED 12Z 03-FEB -5.7 -10.4 1019 87 96 0.05 534 519

WED 18Z 03-FEB -6.0 -12.5 1025 75 59 0.00 537 518

THU 00Z 04-FEB -6.0 -12.7 1028 78 23 0.00 541 519

 

 

 

 

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