Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Geos]

That's an extreme la Niña on the CanSIPS especially. Basin wide cold pool!

 

Note the warm pool in the Canadian Maritimes. That would at to create a ridge in that area. Storms would tend to cut up the west side of the Appalachians most likely.

[NEJeremy]

PNA is forecast to relax by mid month and that would bode well for a good storm track across the central CONUS.  The LRC's "wet" pattern is poised to develop by Week 2 and last though early March.  There were some juicy/dynamic storms during this stretch.  In the foreseeable future, the northern half of our sub-forum will see the majority of the action over the next 7-10 days.

Jim is already talking about the pattern change by mid month back to juicy systems tracking across the central US.

[CentralNebWeather]

More photos.

[Tom]

Jim is already talking about the pattern change by mid month back to juicy systems tracking across the central US.

I got a feeling we are not done with Blizzards down the road, even into March...IMO, the alley is from the 4 corners/southern Plains up towards the Lakes/OV as we finish off the Winter season.

[winterfreak]

Not that it matters this far out but GFS showing something on the 15th-16th timeframe. Would lineup with the LRC.

[OKwx2k4]

Those pics are awesome CentralNebWeather!

[OKwx2k4]

In reference to Tom and Geos' post above, does anyone know any years with a Niña and weak +pdo?

[Tom]

In reference to Tom and Geos' post above, does anyone know any years with a Niña and weak +pdo?

I personally don't.  Would have to do some digging.  I'd imagine we would see an Aleutian Low, similar to what we have been seeing this Jan/Feb as the waters have cooled substantially.  Prob a jet that cuts underneath a ridge in western Canada.  Interesting set up for next year.  I'm surprised the models are still seeing those warmer waters...would be a 4th year in a row.

[Tom]

12z EPS def picking up on a snowy signal from the Rockies on east Week 2...

[gosaints]

Next 10 days or so look lame outside of a thread the needle clipper scenario which will be difficult.  

 

Been lucky here considering the lack of decent storms as a whole.  2 events over 8 inches.  Like the chances around here again once the PNA relaxes again though I think borderline temps will continue to be an issue with larger systems.

 

Looks like the NAO stays positive and the AO dips with the warming event then goes back positive midmonth.

 

Nice pattern for new england until then though.  

[MarcusBeier]

So Tom, im curious your thoughts on the system coming across the Great lakes Monday and getting involved with the other 2 Lows east of it. Any chance we get some 2-4inch or more swaths in the lakes, I see no thread.

[bud2380]

Models are showing a stronger system around Valentine's Day. Eps control even showing several inches from that storm.

[Tom]

So Tom, im curious your thoughts on the system coming across the Great lakes Monday and getting involved with the other 2 Lows east of it. Any chance we get some 2-4inch or more swaths in the lakes, I see no thread.

We will probably wait till this weekend for this system.  Euro lays down 2-4" in MI through next Wed/Thu.  Very complex system as the pattern becomes amplified.  Looks like a cut-off low sits and spins in the lower lakes for a couple days.  Should feel more wintry in your neck of the woods.

[Tom]

Ensembles are looking more impressive for the Valentines day system.  Haven't had a Valentines Day storm around here in a few years.  For the longer range, the pattern is looking very active by mid month.

[hlcater]

Ensembles are looking more impressive for the Valentines day system.  Haven't had a Valentines Day storm around here in a few years.  For the longer range, the pattern is looking very active by mid month.

How do temps look at this point? And how strong are we talking here? Sorry, I don't have access to detailed ensembles.

[Tom]

How do temps look at this point? And how strong are we talking here? Sorry, I don't have access to detailed ensembles.

From IA on east look good. Most members have a cold storm with a HP to the north seeding cold air.

[gosaints]

awful pattern through midmonth

[winterfreak]

Shaft city on the long range GFS.

[Tom]

Models are starting to ignite an active pattern while the northern stream becomes dominant.  The early week Mon/Tue system near the Lakes seems pretty weak compared to the other waves of energy that are being forecast over the coming 10 days.  

 

The Euro is picking up on 2 separate waves...one next Friday...and the other much bigger storm on Valentines Day.  The GFS is also in agreement somewhat for the Valentines Day storm.  One thing that will be the common denominator, temps will definitely be much colder in the Midwest/Lakes region next week and more February-like.

 

Anyone one of these waves can over perform that come off the NE PAC and ride along the tight thermal boundary separating true arctic air to the north and warm "Spring" like air to the south.

 

12z Euro also seeing a -AO/-NAO pattern after the 9th.

 

 

[Tom]

awful pattern through midmonth

Ehh, I wouldn't say its completely awful....I think we will be teased by Clippers entering the pattern through out next week till a system of more substance is showing up late next weekend.

[hlcater]

I'm shaft city on that euro lol. It'll change though.

[Tom]

I'm shaft city on that euro lol. It'll change though.

I like the consistency in the EPS members, esp for our region.  Should be a decent storm to track.  I'd imagine that we will be tracking this system over the coming week.  Another 8-9 Day storm track on tap???   Might have some teasers before that storm as well.

[bud2380]

The GFS is showing a number of clippers over the next week.  None of them look particularly strong, but it doesn't take much moisture to produce some surprising totals out of a clipper.  I wouldn't be surprised if some of them produce 2-3"+ in spots.  After that many models/runs are showing a storm system around Valentine's Day that we should be keeping an eye on. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/6j4OxZx.png

[Geos]

6z GFS has a lot of snow too.

 

[NEJeremy]

and the 12Z GFS has nada.... Actually gave Nebraska about .05" of qpf for the next 16 days. Hopefully a fluke run!

[gosaints]

Ehh, I wouldn't say its completely awful....I think we will be teased by Clippers entering the pattern through out next week till a system of more substance is showing up late next weekend.

So basically awful until mid-month

[gosaints]

Another WSW late in the game for boston.  So much for them being left out to dry while the we enjoy the goodies this winter.

[hlcater]

GGEM is extremely aggressive for the storm on the 14th. The storm isn't even done but this is as far as ku gets went out and 10:1 didnt do it justice.

[gosaints]

Ehh, I wouldn't say its completely awful....I think we will be teased by Clippers entering the pattern through out next week till a system of more substance is showing up late next weekend.

Looking like possibly awful past midmonth now.

 

Looking at the gfs runs it looks as though if SW flow does kick in again temp profiles will be terrible

[gosaints]

Drying out......

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020812/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

[Madtown]

Give me spring this winter has been awful. No extreme cold and excitement over flurries. Give me 70 and thunderstorms.

[Tom]

After reading Judah Cohen's blog and seeing tonight's Euro Weeklies, this Winter isn't going to end abruptly as we roll into March.  In fact, the model keeps it below normal through the end of the run (March 11th).  The last 7-10 days of Feb and opening days of March have a very interesting look to it.  It correlates well with this year's LRC so I expect to see a few more big storm systems to track down the road.  If there is enough snow OTG in the central CONUS, I wouldn't be surprised to see more significant arctic outbreaks during the last week of Feb.

 

PNA dips negative around the 16th and holds nearly neutral throughout the run.  EPO tanks around the 22nd and stays primarily negative.

 

Dr. Cohen predicts the AO to pop positive later next week, but eventually believes it will head negative through the first half of March.

 

 

[bud2380]

Euro and gfs both showing a wide swath of 3-5" on Sunday.

[Tom]

Here are some maps for what Bud mentioned above...

 

 

 

[gosaints]

Still feel that teleconnections seem to support a relatively warm cutter sometime next week...

 

Hopefully weekend clipper comes through before any melt

[james1976]

I like those maps

[OKwx2k4]

No snow on euro for eastern oklahoma. Go figure. Let's just get this month and a half over with already.

[Iowa2015]

Let's hope those maps above can verify or better yet get  bonus snow.

[Iowa2015]

Sunday Monday interesting temperature mid teen to around twenty during the main event possibility of near blizzard conditions winds gusting 40+

[gosaints]

Sunday Monday interesting temperature mid teen to around twenty during the main event possibility of near blizzard conditions winds gusting 40+

Lol