Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Maxim]

I honestly doubt the cold we see mid-month will be any more severe than the cold we saw back in 2012.

[Grizzcoat]

JB said coldest nationwide over a 5-10 period.-- not regionally. (from today's video) Didn't mention anything about last two winters-- at least in todays video,, don't know what exactly he is comparing the 5-10 day period too...Guy takes a lot of heat-- many times from people who twist his words..

[CentralNebWeather]

Jb seems like a great guy. Enthusiastic about weather but making sure we know he put out his forecast in August for this winter and how he feels it is trending weather bell's way. The next 3 months will tell

[Tom]

JB said coldest nationwide over a 5-10 period.-- not regionally. (from today's video) Didn't mention anything about last two winters-- at least in todays video,, don't know what exactly he is comparing the 5-10 day period too...Guy takes a lot of heat-- many times from people who twist his words..

 

Jb seems like a great guy. Enthusiastic about weather but making sure we know he put out his forecast in August for this winter and how he feels it is trending weather bell's way. The next 3 months will tell

Exactly.  Period.

[Geos]

JB said coldest nationwide over a 5-10 period.-- not regionally. (from today's video) Didn't mention anything about last two winters-- at least in todays video,, don't know what exactly he is comparing the 5-10 day period too...Guy takes a lot of heat-- many times from people who twist his words..

 

I think he was trying to bring up 1977 as an analog.

AO went negative today. -0.3

[Tom]

I think he was trying to bring up 1977 as an analog.

I believe his point was to illustrate the amount of real estate the potential arctic outbreak would cover instead of it begin more regional....hence, Feb 2015 was more regional.  

[gosaints]

Coldest nation for a 2 week.period starting january 10th. Yep he said it

[Geos]

I honestly doubt the cold we see mid-month will be any more severe than the cold we saw back in 2012.

 

I think it will be colder than that though.

The cold wave will probably balance the month out and a lot of area will be close to normal, except near the Canadian border, which I expect to be above normal.

[Maxim]

Jb seems like a great guy. Enthusiastic about weather but making sure we know he put out his forecast in August for this winter and how he feels it is trending weather bell's way. The next 3 months will tell

He's full of hype and a charlatan, enough said.

[Tom]

He's full of hype and a charlatan, enough said.

That is harsh...lay off the hator-aid...he's far from that if you even pay close attention to him.

[Tom]

He's full of hype and a charlatan, enough said.

Now, if you were to say that about our own U.S. Gov't....now that is a different story...

[CentralNebWeather]

Well said Tom.

[Geos]

I think Joe B. just gets carried away and give the long range a little too much credit at times. He's still a very good forecaster.

[Tom]

@ Gosaints, I prefer to keep my Freedom...

[winterfreak]

GFS even warmer this run.

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010300/gfs_T850_us_25.png

 

January 9th thats the amount of cold wrapped into a cutter....

[winterfreak]

Can't muster enough cold in Jan for a snowstorm yikes.

[winterfreak]

If our time to cash in is with that cutter we're in serious trouble. The storm after imo has east coast written all over it.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010300/gfs_T850_us_25.png

 

January 9th thats the amount of cold wrapped into a cutter....

 

Yeah, pathetic.  That last storm had more cold, and this one is heading into some existing snowpack for much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

[gosaints]

Yeah, pathetic. That last storm had more cold, and this one is heading into some existing snowpack for much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

Still think it.has a chance for some of us but after that one things get boring I think...

[hlcater]

another storm taking the perfect track for snow here and no cold air. ugh

[winterfreak]

Still think it.has a chance for some of us but after that one things get boring I think...

Exactly which is why I don't understand people calling these next two weeks super active around the sub forum save for MN.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Exactly which is why I don't understand people calling these next two weeks super active around the sub forum save for MN.

 

Some of the snow lovers on this forum call a period active just because it looks like there's some cold air and some potential.  Unfortunately, those don't always come together at an opportune time.  I agree with both you and Gosaints that this potential for Friday/Saturday will be our only decent chance in the next couple weeks, but it looks likely it will be a waste and turn out to be a Grinch storm, destroying our snowpack before this seasonable cold snap comes.

[winterfreak]

Canadian is nothing to get excited about either. Warm cutter and weak with the following storm.

[Geos]

Canadian is nothing to get excited about either. Warm cutter and weak with the following storm.

 

I would say that has a lot of potential for you.

 

 

I think the CMC has the right idea on the track. Storms like to cut underneath where there is a snowpack. Probably end up with a some mixed precip and snow along the front on Friday, especially over areas with snow cover. 

[Money]

0z GFS ensembles still pretty much well south of op GFS. 

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f144.gif

[Tom]

06z GFS looks better for those out in NE...

[Tom]

06z GFS looking better and very similar to the GGEM...southern Plains storm which forms out ahead of the arctic attack.  It produces a monster App runner.

This storm fits the 30-day cycle which was a dynamic storm system.

[Money]

How'd the euro ensembles look, Tom?

[Tom]

How'd the euro ensembles look, Tom?

Still look good from NE to Wisco...

[Tom]

Started a separate storm thread for the Fri/Sat system...

[Money]

GFS is COLD in the longrange. 

[winterfreak]

Storm after cutter is gone again on 12z GFS.

[Tom]

Storm after cutter is gone again on 12z GFS.

Doesn't surprise me...it'll be back...fits both the LRC and 30-day cycle...

[Money]

Cold and snowy. Looks like a couple clippers as well. 

[winterfreak]

Looks like east coast storm train kicks into high gear.

[hlcater]

east cost may get a really nice storm track going

[gosaints]

GFS is COLD in the longrange.

Ya hey even it.inside of ten days. Only have to wait until hour 234

[Tom]

Ya hey even it.inside of ten days. Only have to wait until hour 234

Did you even think you'd have temps below zero this month?  I highly doubt it.  It's coming.  00z Euro Day 9 drops -20C temps right over your neck of the woods under arctic HP.  I'm sure you'll also have a decent snow cover around to produce some good radiational cooling.  Heck, throw in Maxim as well.  If Chicago has snow OTG when the cold snap hits, ORD may get close to ZERO.