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Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

Geos

By Geos
in East of the Rockies

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CentralNebWeather
CentralNebWeather

More photos.

Tom
Tom

Are you being serious???  Who cares where the storm is tracking 7-10 days out.  The fact that the model is producing a storm consistently is THE only fact you should be looking at.   Track is only imp

Tom
Tom

Both GGEM/EURO ensembles seeing a southern Plains storm tracking near the Texarkana region and tracking NE up towards the OV/Lakes region.  Models are coming into a pretty good agreement of a phased s

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Yeah that 500mb is cold for the Midwest, except maybe for KS. A high is going to develop near Greenland.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Really hope this doesn't verify as pictured.

 

That high in Alberta and MT is sliding south, just an fyi.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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00z Euro has 2 nights -10/-15F near MSP...ORD near 0F without snow cover...impressive arctic outbreak if it matures the way it can...might here the media hype the return of the PV near the Lakes...this would be an extreme flip in the pattern...right in the heart of where it was the "warmest" in December...Northern Plains/Northwoods...Nature playing its balancing act I'd say.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z GFS playing catch up and digging the secondary wave back near the 4 corners and out into the southern Plains like the Euro/Euro Para.  Long way to go...but this has lots of potential for those down farther south and even near the lower lakes/OV.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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12z GFS playing catch up and digging the secondary wave back near the 4 corners and out into the southern Plains like the Euro/Euro Para.  Long way to go...but this has lots of potential for those down farther south and even near the lower lakes/OV.

 

Yeah, looks like the first one is gonna come south a bit from early prog's, but not far enough to give SMI snow. That 2nd system is my only hope of not being in the screw zone between two swaths of plowable snows. And, that 2nd system really needs to get more amped up from these initial maps to reach mby in Marshall. Still early, so not ruling it out. Cautiously optimistic. Though I'd feel better about it if I was further east like Nikos in Detroit. They may do fine with it as is. Needs to go big to get much for my place 100 miles west of the Motor City.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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Yeah, looks like the first one is gonna come south a bit from early prog's, but not far enough to give SMI snow. That 2nd system is my only hope of not being in the screw zone between two swaths of plowable snows. And, that 2nd system really needs to get more amped up from these initial maps to reach mby in Marshall. Still early, so not ruling it out. Cautiously optimistic. Though I'd feel better about it if I was further east like Nikos in Detroit. They may do fine with it as is. Needs to go big to get much for my place 100 miles west of the Motor City.

I agree, this one needs to amp up right from the get-go out in the Pan Handle which it very well could since all the systems this season have been amplifying.  With the blocking in place and the way the pattern in the mid latitudes will slow, I can see this one become a major system.  Just not sure yet if it can come that far north for us right now.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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I agree, this one needs to amp up right from the get-go out in the Pan Handle which it very well could since all the systems this season have been amplifying.  With the blocking in place and the way the pattern in the mid latitudes will slow, I can see this one become a major system.  Just not sure yet if it can come that far north for us right now.

 

I will say this - I'd rather have the GFS south of me at this range per its history at 7 days out. ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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I like the way this GEM looks at 500 - should be good for LES too for SWMI. Also, the lining up of SLP's from near the GOMEX to Huron, and up in Canada is almost identical to the Jan 1918 OHV Bomb. That also had bitter cold swinging in with it. Hate to start any storm with bare ground, but I think '67, '99, and Dec 2000 all did for the most part and still turned out great. So, not going to let this rainy stage-setter sour my mood.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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If you live near the Lakes, one thing is for certain, when the bitter cold comes, the Lakes are going to be on fire...for days...those who live in SW MI are going to see some amazing snow squalls off of Lake Michigan.

 

Regarding the snowfall contest, tie breaker question #3 is going to be interesting for Grand Rapids, MI:

 

#3: Greatest lake effect snowfall total for Grand Rapids, MI in January. (Will have to pay close attention to this one... events can last for a few days)

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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I'm amazed just watching the loop of the GFS over the last few days and acknowledging the hemispheric blocking as Canada loads up with some astounding cold air.  If you love the weather, you can appreciate how this has evolved into an extreme pattern.  From a torchy Nov-Dec, Jan is most likely going to produce one of the biggest "flips" I have seen in my lifetime.  I've never seen something like this happen before.  Who knows what February will bring, but I don't anticipate it to be boring weather wise.

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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I'm amazed just watching the loop of the GFS over the last few days and acknowledging the hemispheric blocking as Canada loads up with some astounding cold air. If you love the weather, you can appreciate how this has evolved into an extreme pattern. From a torchy Nov-Dec, Jan is most likely going to produce one of the biggest "flips" I have seen in my lifetime. I've never seen something like this happen before. Who knows what February will bring, but I don't anticipate it to be boring weather wise.

Definitely going to be amazing to observe and learn even if I don't get any snow. I love winter because in my state so many different things can happen in a given season. This is going to be fun.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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oh don't worry, I've been expecting it for a while. Just came a month earlier than I had anticipated. I'm not sure why anyone would get excited over it though, like you seem to be. 

You were off a month, I was off about 10 days...doh!

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Not really. We haven't really locked into a cold pattern yet... next several days will be above average still, but nothing too crazy. So you were about a month off as well.

The pattern change began in late December...your in denial..we went from a torch to more seasonal levels...I'd say that is a change...so be it if we bounce up above normal for a few days...the colder regime is going to lock in for a while.

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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I might need to stop model watching for a week. Kind of frustrating looking and seeing nothing over and over again.

Ya we pretty much we pretty much get one shot before the cold sets in. and that is looking marginal for anyone. Then we arr past hour about hour 240 before any real threat.

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