Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[OKwx2k4]

Unrelated but what a game tonight. Rock chalk jayhawk.

That was one for the ages. If there could only be 2 teams in the #1 spot. Lol.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The pattern change began in late December...your in denial..we went from a torch to more seasonal levels...I'd say that is a change...so be it if we bounce up above normal for a few days...the colder regime is going to lock in for a while.

 

The only reason it was seasonable is that some of us got lucky with a storm.  If we hadn't threaded the needle, we'd be looking at mostly highs at or slightly above freezing at the start of the climatologically coldest month of the year.  Also, it's too bad you're satisfied about being right about a pattern change to cold but primarily dry.  Get a juicy clipper to be modeled within 72 hours and I might change my tune.

[gosaints]

The only reason it was seasonable is that some of us got lucky with a storm. If we hadn't threaded the needle, we'd be looking at mostly highs at or slightly above freezing at the start of the climatologically coldest month of the year. Also, it's too bad you're satisfied about being right about a pattern change to cold but primarily dry. Get a juicy clipper to be modeled within 72 hours and I might change my tune.

He would feel differently about the canadian ridge if chicago hadnt threeded the needle numerous times in the last 2 winters

[Tom]

The only reason it was seasonable is that some of us got lucky with a storm.  If we hadn't threaded the needle, we'd be looking at mostly highs at or slightly above freezing at the start of the climatologically coldest month of the year.  Also, it's too bad you're satisfied about being right about a pattern change to cold but primarily dry.  Get a juicy clipper to be modeled within 72 hours and I might change my tune.

A lot of "what if's"...the fact is, it happened and the pattern shaped up the way Nature wanted it to.  It's not going to be cold/dry.  We're going to see Clippers develop in this highly amplified hemispheric pattern.  Just like the past 2 Winters, these Clippers appear out of no where.  There's already one showing up later next week after the first arctic blast..before the next lobe of arctic air swings through.

[gosaints]

A lot of "what if's"...the fact is, it happened and the pattern shaped up the way Nature wanted it to.  It's not going to be cold/dry.  We're going to see Clippers develop in this highly amplified hemispheric pattern.  Just like the past 2 Winters, these Clippers appear out of no where.  There's already one showing up later next week after the first arctic blast..before the next lobe of arctic air swings through.

As a subforum we are likely to be drier than average in this pattern.  Last winter was drier than normal.   Chicago just happened to cash in on most every viable threat.  Only good thing this year is the pattern is way more transient.  The artic lobes are not going to hang around for day after day.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/JFM15PNormMRCC.png

[gosaints]

As a subforum we are likely to be drier than average in this pattern.  Last winter was drier than normal.   Chicago just happened to cash in on most every viable threat.  Only good thing this year is the pattern is way more transient.  The artic lobes are not going to hang around for day after day.  Meanwhile it looks like another rain storm for most of us before the cold sets in.  

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/JFM15PNormMRCC.png

[westMJim]

If you live near the Lakes, one thing is for certain, when the bitter cold comes, the Lakes are going to be on fire...for days...those who live in SW MI are going to see some amazing snow squalls off of Lake Michigan.

 

Regarding the snowfall contest, tie breaker question #3 is going to be interesting for Grand Rapids, MI:

 

#3: Greatest lake effect snowfall total for Grand Rapids, MI in January. (Will have to pay close attention to this one... events can last for a few days)

I know you will use the official snow fall amounts from GRR but if this plays out I will also add my back yard totals as well (I live about 12 miles closer to the lake) Right now I have 1.5" of ice and snow on the ground in my yard,  i only had a half inch here at my house so far this month (the airport has reported 1.2".  

[westMJim]

Oh one note. My wife and me will be leaving for Florida on the 16th and will be down it Fort Myers until the 28th 

[westMJim]

I am not sure how the expected cold and possible lake effect event will play out. But here is John Dee’s take on the possible snow amounts  

http://www.johndee.com/forecast_graphic.htm

Stroll down for the 5 to 10 days amounts.

[NEJeremy]

We've averaged just under 3 degrees below normal since the 27th of December, so that's 9 days and all but 2 of them were below normal. I'd say that's quite the switch from the 10+ degrees we were above normal the first 26 days of December. I've been immediately reminded of how much I hate the cold(but love snow), and this isn't anything yet compared to what we'll see starting this weekend.

[winterfreak]

I really hope we don't fall into a dry NW flow clipper pattern. Does no good anywhere away from the lakes.

[gosaints]

Looking like sundays vikings seahawks game will make it into the top 10 coldest games.

[crf450ish]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1124-winter-2015-16-banter-thread/?p=107820

[gosaints]

Everyone should take a 10 day vacation to the lake effect belts

 

[winterfreak]

Hope the lack of any snow for the next two weeks modifies the cold somewhat. it usually seems to.

[OKwx2k4]

Hope the lack of any snow for the next two weeks modifies the cold somewhat. it usually seems to.

I would think so but unfortunately I guess we'll find out soon enough. The way things are going, I may start counting frosts as traces of snow. Lol

[winterfreak]

GFS looks a bit more interesting for the 10-11 timeframe.

[westMJim]

It looks more and more like we have a chance of a 7 to 14 day shot of cold but not sure how much snow we will get. If one looks at the cpc’s long range guess it could be just cold and dry

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

and then

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

and after around the 19^th there are signs that we could become milder then average.  This could be a real short winter if that Is the case.  Clear and 28° here at my house.

[Tom]

GFS looks a bit more interesting for the 10-11 timeframe.

JMA looks interesting...showing a secondary wave that intensifies as it tracks towards the Lakes...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016010512/jma_T850_us_5.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016010512/jma_T850_us_6.png

[Maxim]

Look familiar?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f360.gif

[Tom]

And just like when it was showing November 2014 type cold for the end of last month, lol. It's completely useless in the long range.

Does this comment look familiar?  Weakness in how the GEFS handles the NE PAC as the winter matures is a common issue to shift the trough farther into the west coast.

 

I do think there will be a pullback towards the end of Week 2 but EPS/GEFS/GGEM all suggest blocking over the arctic to continue.

 

For example, 12z EPS for the same time period as your post.  Notice PAC NW has a ridge where the GFS has a trough.  Also, there is a trough in the eastern U.S. that the GFS completely doesn't see.

[gosaints]

Would be.more excited in eastern lakes/east coast going forward

[Tom]

And the Clipper parade is showing up on the GFS Day 6-10...pacific waves are going to want to ride the southern flank of the baroclinic zone.  I highly doubt its going to be cold/dry when this pattern turns colder.

[Money]

Def. looks cold and "boring"

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160106/00Z/f312/acckucherasnowconus.png

[winterfreak]

Depends where you live. Especially if you're talking about clippers.

[gosaints]

Wow has the GFS lessened the cold

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Wow has the GFS lessened the cold

 

Sounds good to me.  This time of year, even a slightly below average regime can easily maintain snowcover if we have any.

[gosaints]

Sounds good to me.  This time of year, even a slightly below average regime can easily maintain snowcover if we have any.

Ya definetly still a couple days of brutal cold but nothing even close to the last couple winters.  Modifies much quicker than previous runs

[winterfreak]

Looks like a three day so called Artic air attack before we're back to seasonable to above average. Sounds good to me if it's going to be dry. Frigid and dry is the worst.

[Tom]

I wouldn't buy any models out past Day 7.  Both Euro/GFS had an off the charts -AO run on their respective 12z runs.  Models can't handle that amount of blocking...they act funky.

[OKwx2k4]

All I want to do is say depressing things. Lol. Not good. Midwinter funk has set in.

[Geos]

Polar vortex doesn't look so big and bad anymore! lol

 

 

 

[Tom]

EPS/GEFS/JMA Weeklies all are suggesting this pattern turning very stormy as the "wet" part of the LRC starts rolling over the next 2-3 weeks.  There is no way this pattern turns cold/dry in this year's pattern as the STJ will certainly turn heads as we move forward.

 

Check out the JMA Weeklies over the next 4 weeks...not bad, ay???

 

 

[Tom]

Feel bad for JB, he's going to be 0 of 3 predicting EC storms...his bias is def clouding his judgement as well.  This year's pattern has targeted the central CONUS more so than the EC.  I wonder if the PNA relaxes going forward and if we will continue to see more Cutters/bowling ball storms going forward.

 

10mb warming south of Greenland exploding...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

This type of -NAO pattern would help amplify storms down the road.  Sweet looking blocky look setting over the next 1-2 weeks.

[gosaints]

Feel bad for JB, he's going to be 0 of 3 predicting EC storms...his bias is def clouding his judgement as well.  This year's pattern has targeted the central CONUS more so than the EC.  I wonder if the PNA relaxes going forward and if we will continue to see more Cutters/bowling ball storms going forward.

 

10mb warming south of Greenland exploding...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

This type of -NAO pattern would help amplify storms down the road.  Sweet looking blocky look setting over the next 1-2 weeks.

We can only hope the +PNA doesnt lock in....  Would waste some of the blocking potential

[OKwx2k4]

Feel bad for JB, he's going to be 0 of 3 predicting EC storms...his bias is def clouding his judgement as well. This year's pattern has targeted the central CONUS more so than the EC. I wonder if the PNA relaxes going forward and if we will continue to see more Cutters/bowling ball storms going forward.

 

10mb warming south of Greenland exploding...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

This type of -NAO pattern would help amplify storms down the road. Sweet looking blocky look setting over the next 1-2 weeks.

Yeah. I like JB but he's scoring some pretty big misses this year. Guy doesn't know when he's beat I guess.

[OKwx2k4]

We can only hope the +PNA doesnt lock in.... Would waste some of the blocking potential

This is true also. Neutral is where we all want to be in think.

[Tom]

We can only hope the +PNA doesnt lock in....  Would waste some of the blocking potential

Last nights 00z Euro run showed it going neutral by Day 9-10.  I think we see it relax a bit...reason being, I see warming at 30mb starting to form south of the Aleutians.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

However, the developing trough south of the Aleutians will take over but could ease.  We'll see.

[OKwx2k4]

I know it's only a day 15 GFS map and will be gone the next run but what a storm it makes down here.

[Tom]

I know it's only a day 15 GFS map and will be gone the next run but what a storm it makes down here.

Believe it or not, that fits the LRC/30-day cycle!  Regarding the LRC, this was a storm that had remnant precip from Hurricane Sandra.  As for the 30-day, that storm produced a huge severe weather outbreak on Dec 23rd/24th.  Fun times tracking these storms going forward.  Your probably going to see some snow out of these systems finally.