Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[hlcater]

Big changes on 12z gfs looks like it def got closer to phasing

map? instantweathermaps insnt out that far yet

[Money]

12z GFS

 

HR 162 (24 HR totals)

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160110/12Z/f162/24hkucherasnowconus.png

 

6z

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160110/06Z/f168/24hkucherasnowconus.png

[bud2380]

GFS coming closer to the solution it had a couple days ago, but does away with the long duration light snow and turns it more into a legitimate storm. 

[hlcater]

bring that north pls

[Money]

GFS has the freezing line down into the LA area after the storm

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160110/12Z/f216/sfctconus.png

[Tom]

12z GFS...the problem its having and model error is that it wants to split the energy diving down the Rockies out of Canada and has one piece traverse east towards the Lakes and one out into the southern Plains.  The Euro doesn't do that and essentially has that energy dive south on the lee side of the Rockies and develops a SLP near the TX Panhandle.  Big difference, different result.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011012/gfs_mslpa_us_19.png

 

[Money]

UKMET

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif

[hlcater]

the track is all over the place

[Snowlover76]

Is it ever gonna snow in NE again?

[Tom]

CFSv2 might be seeing the demise of the PV Week 3 & 4...

 

By week 2...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016011000/cfs-avg_Tz10_7d_nhem_2.png

 

Week 3....http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016011000/cfs-avg_Tz10_7d_nhem_3.png

 

Week 4...it's forecasting to completely knock it off the Pole...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016011000/cfs-avg_Tz10_7d_nhem_4.png

[Money]

12z EURO at HR 120 has a 995 L in NE OK

[Tom]

I like the trends on the Euro...the storm doesn't loose steam as it forms near the TX Panhandle.  The model is seeing better phasing each run.

 

996mb in S IN at 144 HR...

[Money]

EURO:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160110/12Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160110/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png

[Money]

I like the trends on the Euro...the storm doesn't loose steam as it forms near the TX Panhandle.  The model is seeing better phasing each run.

 

996mb in S IN at 144 HR...

 

How does the snow map look?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

EURO:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160110/12Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160110/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png

 

Oh no, not another situation with an East Coast low as well-transfer situation.  If this persists, I'm not optimistic of this one cutting very well into Indiana/Michigan.

[winterfreak]

Looks like a great track for this area on the EURO.

[Tom]

Man, this storm reminds me of last year's SB Blizzard...nearly same track and gets wound up as it heads towards the lower lakes.

 

ORD/MKE/DTX good hit this run...36+ hours with winds off the lake...I love these type of systems.

Deduct a few inches in MI.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Man, this storm reminds me of last year's SB Blizzard...nearly same track and gets wound up as it heads towards the lower lakes.

 

ORD/MKE/DTX good hit this run...36+ hours with winds off the lake...I love these type of systems.

Deduct a few inches in MI.

 

That seriously came to my mind as well, and I think the PNA was a bit positive at that time similar to this year.  That said, I wouldn't mind if this one cut a tad more and there's still a lot of time to iron out if there'll even be enough cold air to assist in good totals.

[Money]

Would be a good hit here with really good ratios with the cold air moving in.

 

Something to track over the next couple days

[Tom]

That seriously came to my mind as well, and I think the PNA was a bit positive at that time similar to this year.  That said, I wouldn't mind if this one cut a tad more and there's still a lot of time to iron out if there'll even be enough cold air to assist in good totals.

Agree.  850's aren't the best down here, but up your way they are much better.  Still, we know how the model has performed this season so as long as there is that HP in southern Canada feeding the storm cold air I'm optimistic temps will cool going forward.  On top of that, we are dealing with a phasing system as well.

[Money]

Euro develops the low around 96-108 or so which isn't that far off really.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Agree.  850's aren't the best down here, but up your way they are much better.  Still, we know how the model has performed this season so as long as there is that HP in southern Canada feeding the storm cold air I'm optimistic temps will cool going forward.  On top of that, we are dealing with a phasing system as well.

 

However, with that we also know how poorly the Euro has performed this season, so who knows?  I can tell some of the GFS Ensembles are a good hit moisture wise, with some cutting and some suppressed.

[winterfreak]

Must another marginal setup down here. Track looks perfect sigh.

[Tom]

Must another marginal setup down here. Track looks perfect sigh.

Precip doesn't blossom till later in the run for your region.  Patience, we still have plenty of time.  The trend over the last 24 hours has been a strong storm earlier on in the run.  Track has been nearly the same which gives me more confidence in that trend persisting going forward.

[Money]

Euro has been garbage this winter as well so who knows

 

Something to track though

[Tom]

Would be a good hit here with really good ratios with the cold air moving in.

 

Something to track over the next couple days

Temps are in the mid 20's up your way so ratios should be much better.

 

Like you said, def another storm system to track and it looks like it will be a Friday/Saturday storm system.

 

Last thing I want to see is another marginal temp set up here.  I'm done with the heavy wet snows.  Give me powda!

[hlcater]

and another GIANT plus and something we haven't seen so far this winter is that no matter the track, for almost all of us with the exception of the lone wolf in oklahoma, p-type will not be an issue.

[bud2380]

I like the potential of this one. Just need it to come together a little quicker to give us a chance in e Iowa. Should be fun to watch over the next few days...hopefully

[Geos]

I like what the EURO is seeing, but I would cautious with it this far out. lol

Should be a situation where there is no boundary layer issues where the cold side of the storm is.

 

What are the 2m temps at 12z Saturday?

 

Promising, but can't get excited yet.

 

[OKwx2k4]

and another GIANT plus and something we haven't seen so far this winter is that no matter the track, for almost all of us with the exception of the lone wolf in oklahoma, p-type will not be an issue.

Plenty of time to sort that one out still. Don't think the storm will be nearly as far south as the Euro has it. I'll worry about it when it gets here. Lol

[Money]

JMA is pretty solid

[Hawkeye]

One issue I'm seeing is this system starts out with very limited moisture.  It never does have a good feed off the gulf, it just gradually brings in more moisture and matures as it heads into the lakes/OHvalley.  It would have to rev up earlier to drop much snow on Iowa.

[winterfreak]

One issue I'm seeing is this system starts out with very limited moisture. It never does have a good feed off the gulf, it just gradually brings in more moisture and matures as it heads into the lakes/OHvalley. It would have to rev up earlier to drop much snow on Iowa.

Exactly seen this with tons of other storms in the past. Perfect track but no moisture until it's way east

[Tom]

I like what the EURO is seeing, but I would cautious with it this far out. lol

Should be a situation where there is no boundary layer issues where the cold side of the storm is.

 

What are the 2m temps at 12z Saturday?

 

Promising, but can't get excited yet.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160110/12Z/f144/850mbtempsconus.png

At 00z Saturday ORD is at 32F, then temps start dropping.  @ 12z they are 28F...

[Money]

When do euro ensembles come out?

[Tom]

JMA is pretty solid

Indeed, and it doesn't transfer as much energy off to the East.  Drops about .75-1.00qpf and looks colder.\

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016011012/jma_apcpn_us_7.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016011012/jma_T850_us_7.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016011012/jma_T850_us_8.png

[Tom]

When do euro ensembles come out?

Coming out now...will take a few more minutes to fully load..

[Tom]

12z EPS/Control...a lot of the members get the storm going as it approaches the the Lakes/OV region...

[Money]

Most of the members have a storm?